• EUR/USD gave away part of Monday’s recovery.
• The acceptable bounce in the US Dollar kept the pair under pressure.
• Markets’ attention remains on US PCE due on June 28.

The resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar (USD) prompted the USD Index (DXY) to recover some of Monday’s retracement, exerting marked pressure on risk-sensitive assets and pushing EUR/USD back below the 1.0700 area on Tuesday.

The sour mood around the single currency came despite dwindling political concerns in Europe, although expectations remained well on the rise ahead of the snap elections on June 30.

There were no changes to the macro scenario on both sides of the Atlantic, with the European Central Bank (ECB) still gauging the possibility of further rate cuts beyond the summer vs. market bets for two more rate cuts in the latter part of the year.

Around the Federal Reserve (Fed), market participants maintained alive the debate between one or two rate reductions this year, despite the Fed already voicing its forecast for just one cut, which is likely to be in December.

Still around the Fed, Governor Michelle Bowman emphasised earlier on Tuesday that holding the policy rate “for some time” will most likely be adequate to keep inflation under control. However, she emphasised her willingness to increase rates if required.

It is worth noting that the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicates nearly a 65% probability of lower interest rates at the September 18 gathering.

In the short term, the recent rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast with the Fed’s decision to maintain rates, has widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially leading to further weakness in EUR/USD in the short-term horizon.

However, the Eurozone’s emerging economic recovery and perceived loss of momentum in US fundamentals are expected to reduce this disparity, which could lead to occasional support for the pair in the near term.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

If the EUR/USD rebound gathers pace, the next target is the 200-day SMA at 1.0789, seconded by the weekly top of 1.0852 (June 12) and the June peak of 1.0916 (June 4). The breakout of this level exposes the March high of 1.0981 (March 8), prior to the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11) and the important 1.1000 yardstick.

If bears gain control, the pair may initially revisit the June low of 1.0667 (June 14), ahead of the May low of 1.0649 (May 1), and lastly the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16).

So far, the 4-hour chart has shown some hints of renewed deterioration. The initial resistance occurs at 1.0761, followed by 1.0805 and 1.0852. The first support emerges at 1.0667, followed by 1.0649 and 1.0601. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilised at approximately 43.

• EUR/USD gave away part of Monday’s recovery.
• The acceptable bounce in the US Dollar kept the pair under pressure.
• Markets’ attention remains on US PCE due on June 28.

The resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar (USD) prompted the USD Index (DXY) to recover some of Monday’s retracement, exerting marked pressure on risk-sensitive assets and pushing EUR/USD back below the 1.0700 area on Tuesday.

The sour mood around the single currency came despite dwindling political concerns in Europe, although expectations remained well on the rise ahead of the snap elections on June 30.

There were no changes to the macro scenario on both sides of the Atlantic, with the European Central Bank (ECB) still gauging the possibility of further rate cuts beyond the summer vs. market bets for two more rate cuts in the latter part of the year.

Around the Federal Reserve (Fed), market participants maintained alive the debate between one or two rate reductions this year, despite the Fed already voicing its forecast for just one cut, which is likely to be in December.

Still around the Fed, Governor Michelle Bowman emphasised earlier on Tuesday that holding the policy rate “for some time” will most likely be adequate to keep inflation under control. However, she emphasised her willingness to increase rates if required.

It is worth noting that the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicates nearly a 65% probability of lower interest rates at the September 18 gathering.

In the short term, the recent rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast with the Fed’s decision to maintain rates, has widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially leading to further weakness in EUR/USD in the short-term horizon.

However, the Eurozone’s emerging economic recovery and perceived loss of momentum in US fundamentals are expected to reduce this disparity, which could lead to occasional support for the pair in the near term.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

If the EUR/USD rebound gathers pace, the next target is the 200-day SMA at 1.0789, seconded by the weekly top of 1.0852 (June 12) and the June peak of 1.0916 (June 4). The breakout of this level exposes the March high of 1.0981 (March 8), prior to the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11) and the important 1.1000 yardstick.

If bears gain control, the pair may initially revisit the June low of 1.0667 (June 14), ahead of the May low of 1.0649 (May 1), and lastly the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16).

So far, the 4-hour chart has shown some hints of renewed deterioration. The initial resistance occurs at 1.0761, followed by 1.0805 and 1.0852. The first support emerges at 1.0667, followed by 1.0649 and 1.0601. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilised at approximately 43.

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 06.04.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has shown itself to be somewhat soft during the trading session on Wednesday, but that’s to be expected as we are at the top of the major resistance barrier. Furthermore, late during the day on Tuesday, the market sold off quite drastically to form a massive shooting star for the day, so this suggests that perhaps there are still questions out there about what’s going on with the yen.

The British pound was a little overstretch not only against the yen, but against multiple other currencies as well, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this happen. That being said, I’m not looking for some type of major selloff, I think it’s more likely than not going to be a situation where we just pulled back into previous consolidation, trying to sort out the overall attitude of the markets. With that being said, the ¥166 level continues to look like an area of trouble, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we have to challenge that seriously. Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA crossing above the 200-Day EMA, suggesting that the “golden cross” could attract buyers.

If we do break down below this moving averages, there are plenty of areas where I would expect to see buyers, reaching all the way down to the ¥159.50 level. In other words, this pullback will more likely than not attract buyers, and therefore it should be thought of as an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value in what has been an extraordinarily bullish market for some time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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• For the second day in a row, the GBP/USD price is trying to rebound higher, but its gains did not exceed the 1.2698 level, which is stable near it at the time of writing the analysis.
• Concurrently, the currency pair is trying to recover from the losses of the downward shift that pushed it towards the 1.2622 support level, its lowest in six weeks.
• Clearly, the latest downward move came as investors assessed the monetary policy and political future of Britain.

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged, raising hopes for a rate cut in August after comments from policymakers. Also, the local inflation reports showed that the headline inflation rate fell to the BoE target of 2%. Moreover, the upcoming GDP figures will provide more economic insight, after strong retail sales data on Friday tempered some of the optimism from the BoE comments. 

Meanwhile, the so-called “Gamblegate” scandal involving aides to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak betting on the election date has caused major political turmoil and threatens to overshadow the rest of the campaign, with Labor expected to win by a wide margin.

• 

What is the GBP/USD forecast for this week? 

We believe that GBP/USD exchange rate will remain vulnerable to further weakness, but Friday could see a rebound if the core inflation reading comes in weak. GBP/USD has entered a short-term downtrend against the USD, but we look for a slight rebound in the coming days if key support holds. The Forex trading chart above shows GBP/USD falling to meet the 100-day moving average at 1.2639, which seems to have halted the selling seen last week and could provide further support in the coming days. 

Currently, the 50-day moving average is also in this vicinity, suggesting a confluence of some key technical levels that could create the basis for a slight rebound towards 1.27. Psychological support at 1.2600 will remain important for continued selling pressure. For the rebound story to develop, we need to see a couple of positive daily closes on Monday and Tuesday to confirm that nearby support levels are holding. 

Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today: 

From a GBP/USD forecast today point of view, overall, at current levels, the pound is testing potential support in the form of the 50-day moving average, but if that gives in, we could see a bounce back to around 1.25, last month’s low. At the moment, strength will be shallow and limited as the daily RSI is at 43 and pointing down in recognition of the recent bearish momentum that has built up. Technically, a break below the aforementioned 100 DMA would be a technical deterioration and confirm a deeper downtrend is building. 

Moving to the economic calendar, it is a quiet week in the UK, but there should be some interest from the US. Concurrently, all eyes will be on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (CCE) release on Friday, which is seen as important for the US Federal Reserve when considering interest rate expectations. Also, the Core PCE rate is expected to come in at 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. If it beats expectations, expect the dollar to end the week at a higher level, with the pound likely to end the week at its lowest level since mid-May. However, if the data is lower than expected, we could see a nice rally in GBP/USD, stabilizing the near-term outlook. However, the strength is likely to be limited in nature as the US dollar appears to be benefiting from the continued outperformance of the US equity market. Ultimately, Credit Agricole believes that the outperformance of US equities could continue to attract unhedged international capital flows into US equity markets, supporting the US dollar.

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• As trading began this week, the value of the Japanese yen fell to around 160 yen per US dollar, approaching its 34-year low of 160.24 yen set on April 29.
• Bank of Japan officials remained divided on how to proceed with raising interest rates.
• In this regard, the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the June meeting showed that members acknowledged the negative impact of rising living costs on consumption, but were hesitant about the timing of policy normalization. 

One member called for early action due to the upside risks to inflation, while others urged caution and needed further confirmation from upcoming data. Overall, the developments came as the Bank of Japan declined to scale back its massive bond purchases in last week’s policy decision, saying it would release a plan to reduce its bond-buying program at its next policy meeting in July. 

Overall, investors are now looking ahead to more economic reports this week including retail sales, industrial production and unemployment data for May, as well as Tokyo inflation figures for June.

Recently, the Japanese yen tried to recover some of its losses due to recent comments from the country’s top currency official, warning that the government is ready to intervene in the forex markets 24 hours a day if necessary. Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda said, “If there is excessive volatility in the currency, it will have a negative impact on the national economy,”.  Added, “In the event of excessive movements based on speculation, we are ready to take appropriate action.” 

• 

Market watchers warn that the Japanese yen is vulnerable to further declines without appropriate intervention. Moreover, the fact is that the divergence between benchmark interest rates in the US and Japan is wide and is unlikely to change in the future. Recently, it was confirmed that Japan spent over $61 billion intervening in currency markets between April 26 and May 29. Although the Bank of Japan did not provide specific dates, trading patterns have indicated multiple rounds of intervention, such as selling US Treasuries. 

While Japan may appear ready to unleash more weapons, experts believe any action will be muted. “This certainly does not look like an intervention. However, it does indicate how nervous the market is about the possibility of intervention,” Michael Brown, chief research strategist at Pepperstone, told CNBC. “I think as long as any further weakness is not rapid or disorderly in nature, it is unlikely that the Ministry of Finance will intervene now.” 

On the economic data front, there will be some awaited reports from the US and Japan. In the world’s largest economy, there will be crucial inflation data and a final estimate of first-quarter GDP.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today 

The general trend for the USD/JPY pair will remain bullish until the US inflation reading is released at the end of the week or there is an expected intervention from Japan in the currency markets to stop the Japanese currency from further collapsing, which is hurting the economy. Currently, according to the USD/JPY forecast on the daily chart, there will be sensitivity to the Dollar/Yen price breaching the psychological resistance level of 160.00, which will move all technical indicators towards strong overbought levels, and with it, talk of an imminent Japanese intervention will increase. 

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• For the second day in a row, the EUR/USD price is moving higher, holding around 1.0744 at the time of writing.
• Clearly, the rebound came after two sessions of declines as investors assessed fresh economic data and monetary policy expectations ahead of the first round of voting in the French legislative elections on June 30.

On the economic calendar data front, the latest business survey from the German Ifo Institute revealed an unexpected decline in business sentiment for June. On the inflation front, preliminary data for major economies, including France, Spain and Italy, will be published this week. 

Spanish annual inflation is expected to ease to 3.3% in June from 3.6% in May, while consumer prices in Italy are expected to rise 0.2% on the month, the same as in May. Politically, investors are concerned about the French parliamentary elections, with early elections for President Emmanuel Macron adding to the uncertainty. The outcome of the elections, whether in favour of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party or the left-wing alliance, could have a significant impact on financial markets, especially if it results in major policy shifts. 

• 

The question now is: What is the EUR/USD forecast for this week? 

We believe there is room for a recovery in the near term, although it should be shallow as the euro is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the French elections. Moreover, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been recovering since the start of trading this week, and we are looking for near-term consolidation after five consecutive weekly losses. The recent losing streak indicates broader pressure on the exchange rate, which is why we view any periods of strength as short-lived, meaning that those considering buying the US dollar should be smart.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast: 

In fact, there could be some strength in the coming days, we believe. The Forex chart above shows the 100-day moving average at 1.0663, which could form the basis for a return to 1.08 in the immediate outlook. However, we must be cautious, as we will need to see two positive weekly closes before we can call for a return to the 2024 highs. 

The overall trend remains down, with the potential for shallow rebounds. 

The ongoing uncertainty over the French elections and the rise of far-right parties across Europe, not to mention the recent surge in crude oil prices, will continue to weigh on the euro, making the EUR/USD forecast today bearish in the short-term. Thanks to the renewed weakness in Eurozone data and uncertainty over the French elections, we would not be surprised if EUR/USD continues to trend lower in the short-term outlook. Now, it may establish a new ceiling below the 1.07 level. It has already successfully defended previously broken support levels such as 1.0750 and 1.0790. In contrast, the psychological support at 1.0500 will remain an important destination for further bear control of the trend. 

Moving to the US, the ongoing rally in the stock market has proven to be a strong source of support for the US dollar as global investors look to gain exposure to this outperformance. Further gains in the stock market in the coming days and weeks could keep the dollar on the offensive, according to forecasters. Obviously, the main data release this week is the release of core personal consumption expenditures inflation on Friday, which is a key input into the Federal Reserve’s policymaking process. 

Meanwhile, markets expect the Fed to cut rates later this year. If those expectations fade, the dollar could gain strength. Furthermore, the data needs to continue to beat expectations. With that in mind, core PCE is expected to come in at 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. May consensus was for a 0.1% month-on-month rise, down from 0.2%. 

If it beats expectations, we expect the US dollar to end the week at a higher level, with the EUR/USD likely to end the week at its lowest level not seen since mid-April (1.06).

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GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 09.06.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to build up pressure underneath the ¥175 level in an attempt to break above there. If we do break above the ¥175 level, then the market is likely to go much further to the upside. At that point, I would anticipate it will be more of a “buy-and-hold” type of scenario, something that I think it makes quite a bit of sense over the longer term. When you look at the chart, you can see that the Thursday candlestick was very bullish, so I do think that there are buyers underneath willing to jump into this market if we do offer a bit of value.

The 50-Day EMA sits right around the ¥170 level, which was previously important, and of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. With that being the case, it’s very likely that it has become the “floor in the market”, assuming that we can even get down to that area.

All things being equal, I think we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior but I think given enough time we probably continue to break out to the upside as the interest rate differential between the British and the Japanese are wide enough to drive a truck through. Interest rate differential continues to be a major driver of the currency markets right now, and I think that will most certainly be the case in this market.

Another thing to keep in the back of your mind is that sometimes risk appetite has a major influence on what we do in this pair as well, so remember that the Japanese yen can be considered a safety currency at times, and therefore it’s likely that we will see a lot of interest paid to what’s going on with the overall risk appetite of the world. At this point, I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon, at least not until we break down below the ¥170 level at the very minimum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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However, the Jibun Bank Services PMI unexpectedly fell from 53.8 to 49.8 in June, contracting for the first time since August 2022. Notably, output price inflation rose at the slowest pace in seven months.

With economic indicators falling short, the BoJ may need to change tack and emphasize the effects of a weak Japanese Yen, supporting the case for a rate hike to strengthen the Yen, consumer price trends, and the economy.

Can Bank of Japan Board members align on the need for monetary policy moves to address the Yen effect?

While the BoJ faces Yen weakness, US consumer confidence numbers could influence the Fed rate path.

Will the CB Consumer Confidence Index Signal a September Fed Rate Cut?

Later in the session on Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index will draw investor interest. Economists predict the CB Consumer Confidence Index will fall from 102.0 to 100.0 in June. A drop below 100, for the first time since July 2022, could raise investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.

A significant decline in consumer confidence could curb consumer spending, potentially easing demand-driven inflation pressures. A milder inflation outlook might allow the Fed to cut interest rates to stabilize prices.

Could a larger-than-expected decline in the index rekindle investor concerns about a severe economic slowdown?

A larger-than-expected drop could retrigger investor jitters about a US economic recession. Private consumption contributed 67.6% to the US economy in March 2024. A sharp decline in consumption may adversely affect the US economy.

Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, attributed the CB Consumer Confidence Index fall below 100 in April 2024 to consumer worries about inflation.

The yen faced pressure, flirting with intervention levels, triggering warnings from Japanese authorities. After reaching significant highs, it briefly tumbled, highlighting market volatility. Japan’s Ministry of Finance remains vigilant but has not yet intervened. The yen’s decline, driven by the Bank of Japan’s stimulus policies and U.S. rate differentials, reflects ongoing challenges. The yen’s sensitivity to U.S. Treasury yields and the BOJ’s policy decisions will continue to influence its performance, with traders alert to potential intervention signals.

The USD/JPY is trading higher on Monday, consolidating just below it’s 4-hour high at 159.929. This level is a potential triggre point for an acceleration to the upside. Fear of an intervention, may however, prevent speculators from chasing it higher.

Key support is the former resistance zone at 158.500 to 158.001. This is followed by the uptrending 50-4-hour moving average at 157.993. A normal pullback into this support would likely attract buyers, but a sell-off fueled by an intervention would likely wipe it out, while putting 155.048 to 154.526 on the radar.

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0725

• The German IFO Business Climate survey missed expectations in June.
• The better tone of Wall Street helped EUR/USD to stay afloat in the second half of the day.
• EUR/USD loses its upward steam, could pierce the 1.0700 threshold.

The EUR/USD pair saw little action on Monday, confined to a tight 50 pips range. The US Dollar found demand at the beginning of the day, resulting in the pair bottoming at 1.0681. It recovered, advancing with Wall Street up to 1.0745, where sellers reappeared. EUR/USD settled in the 1.0720 price zone, holding on to modest gains.

The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, although Germany published the June IFO Business Climate survey, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the 89.7 expected. The assessment of the current situation and expectations sub-indexes also missed the market’s estimates. Across the pond, the United States (US) unveiled the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, which improved to -15.1 in June from -19.4 in the previous month.

In the absence of significant headlines, major pairs followed stock markets, which reflected the market mood. Following a cautious stance in Asia, markets seemed more optimistic after the American opening, as the three major US indexes posted gains.

On Tuesday, the Eurozone macroeconomic calendar will have little to offer, while the US will publish housing-related figures and June CB Consumer Confidence. The latter is foreseen at 100.0, contracting from the previous 102.0. Later in the week, investors will look at the  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows further advances seem unlikely. The pair remains below all its moving averages, with a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below directionless 100 and 200 SMAs, all of them in the 1.0780/90 price zone. At the same time, technical indicators have barely recovered from near oversold readings, maintaining modest upward slopes, although far below their midlines.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk increasingly turns to the downside. EUR/USD develops above its 20 SMA, which anyway maintains a bearish slope. The 100 and 200 SMAs also head south while above the current level. Finally, technical indicators lost their upward strength after testing their midlines and slowly turn south, in line with another leg lower.

 Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0725

• The German IFO Business Climate survey missed expectations in June.
• The better tone of Wall Street helped EUR/USD to stay afloat in the second half of the day.
• EUR/USD loses its upward steam, could pierce the 1.0700 threshold.

The EUR/USD pair saw little action on Monday, confined to a tight 50 pips range. The US Dollar found demand at the beginning of the day, resulting in the pair bottoming at 1.0681. It recovered, advancing with Wall Street up to 1.0745, where sellers reappeared. EUR/USD settled in the 1.0720 price zone, holding on to modest gains.

The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, although Germany published the June IFO Business Climate survey, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the 89.7 expected. The assessment of the current situation and expectations sub-indexes also missed the market’s estimates. Across the pond, the United States (US) unveiled the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, which improved to -15.1 in June from -19.4 in the previous month.

In the absence of significant headlines, major pairs followed stock markets, which reflected the market mood. Following a cautious stance in Asia, markets seemed more optimistic after the American opening, as the three major US indexes posted gains.

On Tuesday, the Eurozone macroeconomic calendar will have little to offer, while the US will publish housing-related figures and June CB Consumer Confidence. The latter is foreseen at 100.0, contracting from the previous 102.0. Later in the week, investors will look at the  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows further advances seem unlikely. The pair remains below all its moving averages, with a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below directionless 100 and 200 SMAs, all of them in the 1.0780/90 price zone. At the same time, technical indicators have barely recovered from near oversold readings, maintaining modest upward slopes, although far below their midlines.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk increasingly turns to the downside. EUR/USD develops above its 20 SMA, which anyway maintains a bearish slope. The 100 and 200 SMAs also head south while above the current level. Finally, technical indicators lost their upward strength after testing their midlines and slowly turn south, in line with another leg lower.

 Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840

• The US dollar has rallied yet again during the trading session on Friday as the PMI numbers in the United States came out hotter than anticipated.
• This has people betting that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates between now and the end of the year, which is a bit of a surprise to me considering that they basically said that’s very possible.
• After all, inflation has been very sticky in the United States, and it was just 6 months ago the people were suggesting that perhaps we could be getting 7 interest rate cuts this year. In other words, it’s astonishing how many people have been blind all year to the reality of inflation sticking around.

Plenty of momentum still

The US dollar continues to beat up on the Japanese yen, which makes a lot of sense. After all, the Bank of Japan can do nothing about its monetary policy other than keep it extraordinarily loose. It has to be loose. The debt in Japan is so out of control that they can’t afford to pay it back with any interest whatsoever.

• 

With this being the case, I think the market is likely to continue to see the Japanese yen get just absolutely crushed by almost anything against it. If we can take out the 160 yen level, this is a pair that could go much higher. After all, the Bank of Japan intervened from there, so that would be the next major barrier to overcome. Ultimately, short-term pullbacks end up in buying opportunities, especially near the 158 yen level, which we just broke out of.

I have no interest in shorting this USD/JPY pair because you have to pay for the privilege of doing so, which would be fine flying in the face of the overall trend. And therefore, I think anytime you get a dip, you have to be looking for some type of bounce in order to take advantage of the value that you could find in the greenback. This goes for pretty much all Japanese yen related currency pairs.

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