– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Analysts Put 1.3445 as Key to GBP/USD Stability

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate outlook hinges on jobs data and politics. ING sees a move above 1.35 if US employment figures disappoint, while UoB warns that only a breach of 1.3445 would confirm stability. MUFG stresses that Friday’s payrolls report could extend the dollar rebound if labour-market strength forces a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovery from 7-Week Lows

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 7-week lows just below 1.3330 last week before a recovery to 1.3440 on Monday.

UoB commented; “Although downward momentum is starting to slow, we will maintain the same view as long as 1.3445 holds.

It added; “A breach of 1.3445 would indicate that the weakness in GBP from more than a week ago has stabilised.”

ING noted the importance of US jobs data; “So far, support has held at 1.3300 for cable. And US jobs data will help determine whether we end the week over 1.35.”

There will be labour-market releases from Tuesday to Friday, culminating in the pivotal labour-market report.

The data will frame the debate surrounding inflation, unemployment and labour markets.

Rabobank commented; “This week will be important for shoring up market judgements about where the balance of risks lays between the price stability mandate and the employment mandate. 2.7% inflation is quite a bit higher than the 2% target, but the Fed has already cut interest rates four times – including a 50bp cut in September last year.”

It added; “Does this suggest that – like the household sector – the FOMC is also more sensitive to labour market deterioration than they are to stubbornly high inflation?”

According to MUFG; “The release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report for September at the end of the week will be important in determining whether the US dollar’s recent rebound will extend further in the near-term.”

It added; “if employment growth picks up helping to close the divergence with stronger economic growth, then it could trigger a bigger hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and extend the US dollar’s recent rebound.”

US political developments will also be important this week with government funding due to expire at the end of Tuesday.

President Trump is due to meet with Republican and Democrat congressional leaders on Monday in an attempt to prevent a shutdown.

According to ING; “One additional event risk this week is a US government shutdown on Tuesday evening. That’s probably a mild dollar negative if it happens, but it would look unlikely to last long if it did occur.”

ING also looks at the potential political drivers for the Pound with the Labour Party conference in Liverpool; “If sterling can survive that party conference unscathed, then presumably more rhetoric from Bank of England hawks later in the week – including Governor Andrew Bailey – could provide sterling with a little more support.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The USD/JPY forecast remains bearish as the BOJ tilts closer to a rate hike.
• The risk of a US government shutdown and higher JGB yields support the bearish narrative in USD/JPY.
• Markets are now watching the JOLTS job opening data, along with key speeches, for further impetus.

The Japanese yen gained solid ground on Tuesday, pushing the USD/JPY price towards 148.00 handle as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan edging closer to a rate hike, with heightened political uncertainty in Washington threatening the delay of US data releases.

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The BOJ’s September policy meeting revealed that board members were divided, but many reiterated the need for a rate hike sooner, from 0.50% to 0.75%. Rising wage growth and sticky inflation, along with a volatile government bond market, continue to pressure the central bank to act quickly. The 2-year JGB yields hit 0.935%, the highest level since 2008. Weak auction demand triggered speculation about a tighter BOJ policy.

The hawkish shift in BOJ stands in contrast with the US Fed, where markets are pricing in two more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The divergence is giving more strength to the USD/JPY sellers, especially after the growing risk of a US government shutdown. Any delay in the release of US data, such as the NFP, could further erode the dollar’s sentiment, with investors heavily relying on the JOLTs jobs opening data in the meantime.

Japan’s domestic data remains mixed, with retail sales showing the most significant decline since 2021, while industrial production fell for the second consecutive month. However, investors continue to ignore the signs of economic weakness, focusing mainly on the BOJ’s gradual retreat from ultra-loose monetary policy. The safe haven reinforces the narrative, with the yen gaining amid geopolitical tensions and US fiscal uncertainty.

USD/JPY Key Events Ahead:

The significant events due today include:

• US JOLTS job openings
• US CB Consumer Confidence

Meanwhile, President Trump’s speech, along with Fed member Goolsbee, can also provide impetus to the market.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Sellers Aiming for 200-MA

The 4-hour chart for the USD/JPY shows a growing bearish pressure as the price formed a top near 150.00 and fell below the 20-period MA. The price is now looking to test the confluence of 100- and 200-period MAs around 147.75. A sustained breakout of this level could initiate a deeper correction towards 147.00 and 146.500.

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Alternatively, if the price manages to sustain above the 148.00 mark, it could try recapturing the 50-period MA at 148.40 ahead of the 20-period MA near 149.00.

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Created on September 30, 2025

• The euro rallied a bit against the US dollar during the trading session on Monday, but it does look like it is struggling to hang on to a certain portion of those gains.
• This is a market that I believe is in a major state of flux at the moment and therefore needs to figure out what it is going to be doing for the longer term before we can put significant money to work.
• After all, we have been sideways for a while, and despite the fact that we tried to break out a couple of weeks ago, the reality is that we just couldn’t hang onto those gains.

Trend Continues or Not?

At this point, the only question that I’m interested in is whether or not the trend continues or whether or not it doesn’t. Sooner or later, we have to make a decision as to whether or not we are going to continue the uptrend, or if we are going to fall apart. After all, the market is certainly one that isn’t showing a lot of strength, despite the fact that the FOMC cut interest rates recently. In fact, after the press conference, the euro has fallen quite a bit, all things considered. I suspect this is because the Federal Reserve isn’t panicking, and therefore people were worried that they are not going to cut interest rates fast enough.

Interest rates in the United States have been rising as bonds have been selling off, so thereby it makes the United States dollar a bit more attractive. Underneath current trading, we have the 50 Day EMA, a trend line, and then finally the 1.16 level all offering support. This is an area that needs to hold for the euro, or we could see significant selling. If we were to turn around and break above the 1.18 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking at the 1.20 level, but this is not an overly bullish market at the moment. In fact, I think it’s very neutral and asks a lot of questions as to where we go next.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The EURJPY pair activated with stochastic intraday negativity, to keep its stability below the barrier at 175.20, providing correctional trading by reaching 174.00.

Note that the current decline will not affect the bullish scenario due to the stability of the extra support at 173.40, therefore, we will keep waiting for gaining the positive momentum to ease the mission of surpassing the barrier and targeting new positive stations that might extend to 175.60 and 176.00, while breaking the extra support will confirm its surrender to the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer extra losses by reaching 172.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.65 and 174.85

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: ECB Expected Hold, Limiting EUR Selling

The British Pound remained pinned near two-month lows against the Euro on Thursday, with GBP/EUR trading just under 1.1450 as UK bond-market stress and weak retail sales kept Sterling under pressure.

A fragile gilt auction underscored investor unease ahead of November’s budget, while Danske Bank still targets 1.1240 on a 12-month view.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Trapped Near 2-Month Low

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has been unable to gain significant support and is trading just below 1.1450, still close to 2-month lows.

A dip below 1.1420 would risk further Pound selling.

Danske Bank maintains a 12-month target of 1.1240.

The Pound and Euro have both been hampered by evidence of weak consumer spending, but the Euro has secured some relative protection due to hopes for stronger German demand next year amid a fiscal boost.

In contrast, there are expectations of UK tax hikes in the November budget while bond-market sentiment remains fragile.

There was weaker demand at the latest 10-year gilt auction with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.73% from 4.68%. Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro commented; “The drop in gilt demand highlights investor impatience with uncertainty and could keep markets volatile until the budget.”

The UK CBI retail sales survey improved slightly to -29 for September from -32 previously and compared with consensus forecasts of -31.

This was, however, the 12th successive negative monthly figure and retailers expect a faster rate of decline for October.

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius commented; “September marked the twelfth straight month of falling retail sales, underlining the tough conditions facing the sector.”

He added; “Weak demand continues to weigh on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers.”

As far as the Euro-Zone is concerned, the German GfK consumer confidence index improved slightly to -22.3 from -23.5 the previous month.

Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM commented; “After falling for three months in a row, the Consumer Climate has now ended its downward trend – at least for the moment.”

He added; “Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained turnaround is more than uncertain. The geopolitical situation, concerns about jobs, and renewed fears of inflation are likely hinder a thorough recovery at the moment.”

The Euro was hurt by weaker than expected IFO business confidence data on Wednesday.

MUFG commented; “Overall the survey has put a dampener on optimism over the outlook for Germany’s economy.”

It did, however, note; “Bloomberg consensus forecasts are currently expecting a very gradual pick-up in growth during the 2H of this year before growth picks up more notably next year in response to the government’s plans for looser fiscal policy.”

The bank also notes that markets are still expecting the ECB to hold interest rates at 2.0% through the rest of the year which will limit potential Euro selling.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

Created on September 30, 2025

• The British Pound initially rallied on Monday and has continued the recovery that started on Friday.
• At this point, the market looks as if it is struggling to break above the top of the Thursday candlestick and that is something worth paying attention to.
• After all, this is a market that sold off quite viciously on Wednesday and Thursday. And if we cannot break the Thursday candlestick, it shows that we just don’t have enough momentum to continue going higher.

If we can break above there, then we have the 50 day EMA to pay attention to. And again, the Wednesday candlestick is just above the 1.35 level. All things being equal, we are currently between the 50 day EMA, which is above and the 200 day EMA, which is below. And that typically will cause a bit of volatility.

Many Questions About the USD

There are a lot of questions right now as to what’s going to happen with the U S dollar, but it’s worth noting that the US dollar has actually strengthened since the interest rate cut that screams that something isn’t quite right.

Money is flowing into the U S dollar, mainly due to interest rates rising, despite the fact that the federal reserve is talking about cutting them. They aren’t cutting them quickly enough. And that’s part of the problem. Ultimately, if traders out there are a little bit concerned, they go to the US dollar because they need to go to the US treasury market.

The US treasury market demands those dollars, and that might be what’s happening here. Either way, I think we’ve got a situation where the dollar may have finally bottomed out. We’ll have to wait and see. But if we break down below the lows of the Friday candlestick, we then challenge the 200 day EMA and then possibly 1.32 below there. Anything below 1.32, we could see the British pound plunge.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair failed to breach the barrier at 200.45, which forces it to provide new mixed trading by reaching 199.50, announcing its surrender to the sideways track that depends on forming extra support at 198.60 level, while the mentioned barrier represents the key of resuming the bullish attack.

Note that the continuation of the attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances for some bullish waves, to attempt to press on the barrier, where surpassing it will make the price target new positive stations that begin at 200.95 and 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.80 and 200.45

Trend forecast: Sideways

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Gains Ground as Dollar Lags Without Data

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Monday as upbeat risk sentiment pressured the Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3437, up around 0.3% from the session open.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened at the start of the week despite a quiet calendar.

A broadly risk-on mood undercut safe-haven demand, leaving the Greenback on the defensive and posting losses against most peers through Monday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP) saw choppy trading in the absence of major UK data, with moves largely dictated by wider market appetite.

Sterling gained modestly against defensive currencies, while its risk-sensitive profile limited advances versus pro-cyclical rivals.

GBP/USD Forecasts: US Jobs Data in Focus

Looking to Tuesday, the spotlight falls on the latest US JOLTs job openings report for August.

Forecasts point to a decline from 7.181 million to 7.1 million, signalling further cooling in the labour market.

If confirmed, concerns over job creation could weigh on the Dollar and give GBP/USD fresh momentum.

For Sterling, a quiet domestic calendar shifts attention to Bank of England speeches.

Any hawkish signals from policymakers could offer support and help the Pound hold firm as the week unfolds.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on September 29, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish bias.
• Today’s Support Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1645 – 1.1590 – 1.1500.
• Today’s Resistance Levels for EUR/USD: 1.1740 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1760 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1780 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

During trading last week, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) fell to its lowest level in three weeks, testing the 1.1645 support level before attempting a bounce higher and stabilizing above the 1.1700 resistance ahead of the weekend close. The most prominent factor pressuring the Euro was the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which boosted the value of the US Dollar. Recently, market expectations for a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped, while analysts warned that a break of the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 could lead to further declines.

Nevertheless, Forex trading experts still believe there is a chance for the EUR/USD price to rise above 1.170 in the short term. According to licensed brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD exchange rate failed to rise last Thursday, dropping to its 3-week low below 1.1650 before regaining some ground to 1.1680 on Friday. The US economic data was stronger than anticipated, with no signs of an increase in unemployment, which boosted the value of the US Dollar against other major currencies.

Market expectations have recently shifted, with traders now seeing the probability of two US rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 dropping to 60%. Technically, while the drop in the exchange rate was sharp, there are no indications of price stabilization yet. As long as the Euro remains below the 1.1715 support, it is possible for the decline to continue. However, it is unlikely to reach the main support level at 1.1610 for now.

In the same vein of forecasts, SocGen Bank believes the US Dollar is at a key support level: “The Euro-Dollar pair is currently testing an ascending support line since August; the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1660 is an important support level. If it fails to hold this level, the decline may continue. In this case, the next support levels for the EUR/USD pair could be the late August lows at 1.1600/1.1570 and 1.1500.”

However, ING Bank doubts the US Dollar’s ability to maintain its recent gains, stating: “We see it as likely that the Dollar will retreat from its current levels, and we expect it to drop below 1.170 in the near days.” The bank pointed to the potential for a further decline in the Euro’s value, explaining: “Alongside any other positive data from the US, another risk is that escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe could negatively impact currency markets. NATO recently stated it is ready to shoot down any Russian plane violating its airspace.”

Economic Data Still Supports the Dollar

MUFG Bank noted that US economic data was stronger than expected, saying: “It’s been a long time since we saw such positive and Dollar-supportive US economic data, but the recently released data was surprisingly positive. With markets recently leaning toward anticipating weak US economic data, we saw a notable Dollar rebound at a time when currency and bond markets are experiencing high volatility.”

The bank believes that the US labor market will be a decisive factor in determining the course of developments in the coming days, as the details of the US jobs report will be announced at the end of the week, which will, in turn, affect the future policies of the US Federal Reserve. According to currency experts’ forecasts, if US labor market data shows better-than-expected results this week, it will reinforce Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s stance on not cutting rates and will push the US central bank to consider the risks of rising inflation.

Future Price of the Euro in the Coming Days

According to reliable trading platforms, the Euro fell below $1.17 at the end of September, erasing the gains it made at the beginning of the month. It is expected to conclude the month near its current level, as traders balance monetary policy expectations and escalating trade tensions. The market currently still anticipates the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by an additional 0.25% twice this year, even though recent data showed the strength of the US economy and labor market.

In Europe, forecasts suggest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle is nearing its end, after the bank kept interest rates unchanged in its two consecutive meetings in September. Economic indicators continue to show a mixed picture, with Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the services sector seeing some improvement, while the recession in the manufacturing sector worsens.

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on registered or patented pharmaceutical products, and a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks. Meanwhile, reports indicated that the European Commission is preparing to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese steel imports.

Trading Advice:

We advise you to wait for the market reaction to the US employment report to clarify the picture regarding the best trading opportunities for the Euro-Dollar, whether to buy or sell.

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– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Euro Forecast: GBP Vulnerable to Russia Tensions Despite EUR Weakness

The British Pound stayed pinned near two-month lows against the Euro at 1.1440, with the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) weighed by weak UK data, geopolitical jitters and fragile risk sentiment.

Analysts warn Sterling could suffer more than the euro if Russia tensions escalate, while fresh German IFO weakness underlines Europe’s sluggish growth backdrop.

Danske Bank still sees the pair sliding towards 1.1240 on a 12-month view.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Near 2-Month Lows

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has remained on the defensive and trading just above 1.1440, close to 2-month lows recorded on Tuesday.

The Pound found it very difficult to make headway in global markets even with tailwinds for global equity markets which suggests underlying vulnerability while the Euro has drifted lower.

The FTSE 100 index posted significant losses on Wednesday following a dip on Wall Street and the Pound tends to be sensitive to risk conditions.

If geo-political tensions with Russia intensify, the Euro and Pound would both be at risk, although Sterling would potentially be hit harder.

A drop below the July low near 1.1420 would risk further losses.

Danske Bank expects gradual GBP/EUR losses to 1.1240 on a 12-month view, but added; “The key risk to seeing EUR/GBP trade substantially higher than our forecast is a sharp sell-off in global risk and/or renewed focus on the UK’s fragile fiscal position.”

In rhetoric on Tuesday, President Trump shifted his position on Ukraine and suggested that it could regain all the territory that has been lost. He also called for a more aggressive NATO stance against Russia which could increase tensions within Europe.

ING commented; “If anything, there are downside risks for the euro and even more for higher-beta European currencies as Trump told EU allies to shoot down Russian planes violating NATO airspace.”

Rabobank noted the stronger tone in the latest NATO statements.

It added; “So while can only speculate about the next steps taken by NATO or Europe, opinions appear to be shifting and there can be little doubt that whatever comes next is going to be even more costly for Europe in many respects.”

The German IFO business confidence index dipped to 87.7 for September from a revised 88.9 previously and below consensus forecasts of 89.3.

The current assessment and expectations components both declined on the week.

According to the IFO; “Companies were less satisfied with current business, while their expectations clouded noticeably. Prospects for an economic recovery have suffered a setback.”

The German PMI services-sector index strengthened according to the latest PMI data, but the IFO commented on the sector; “Expectations have grown markedly more pessimistic, and the indicator fell to its lowest level since February.”

Rabobank noted that PMI business confidence data on Tuesday reported a decline in export orders which will be a headwind for the economy.

It added; “In summary, European growth will probably remain sluggish in the coming quarters.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts