UK Data Misses Drive Market Caution

The British pound came under pressure after a series of UK data releases fell short of expectations, indirectly offering some temporary support to the DXY.

Monthly GDP slipped -0.1% against a forecast of 0.0%, while industrial production recorded a sharp -2.0% decline compared with the expected -0.5%. Manufacturing production also dropped -1.7%, underperforming both the forecast and previous readings.

Only quarterly GDP provided a small positive surprise at 0.1%. These softer numbers weighed on overall risk sentiment and reinforced concerns about slowing UK economic momentum. Eurozone industrial production also disappointed at 0.2%, well below the 0.7% forecast, further pressuring European currencies.

Several Federal Reserve officials, including Collins, Daly, Musalem, Kashkari, and Hammack, delivered remarks throughout the day, but none endorsed immediate policy easing.

Their tone remained data-dependent, signaling that the central bank needs clearer visibility before adjusting rates. This kept rate-cut expectations anchored for early 2026 and provided little directional support for the dollar.

Meanwhile, US Crude Oil Inventories rose 6.4M versus a 1.0M forecast, hinting at softer demand and contributing to broader market caution.

This mix of economic resilience and policy divergence has traders questioning whether intervention looms before year-end.

US Economic Data and the Fed Outlook

While markets speculate about yen interventions and the BoJ’s rate path, US data and Fed speakers could influence US dollar demand later on Friday.

US producer prices and retail sales figures are set for release. Barring further delays to report releases, the two data sets will give key insights into inflation and consumption.

An uptick in producer prices could further temper bets on a December Fed rate cut, boosting demand for the US dollar. Meanwhile, weaker retail sales, likely because of the shutdown, combined with rising producer prices, could fuel stagflation fears.

With the Fed placing greater emphasis on inflation, higher producer prices would point to a less dovish stance, supporting a potential USD/JPY return to 155. Markets have cut expectations of a December rate cut in recent sessions, contributing to the USD/JPY return to 155.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has tumbled from 69.6% on November 6 to 50.7% on November 13.

Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook remains bearish because narrowing rate differentials could shift momentum in favor of the yen. The Fed remains on a dovish rate path, while the BoJ continues to keep a rate hike on the table. Additionally, markets may speculate about a shift in the Fed’s focus from inflation to supporting the economy, which could trigger US dollar weakness.

The key question now is whether markets buy into the Fed prioritizing inflation.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric, intervention threats, weak US data, and dovish Fed comments could drag USD/JPY toward 153.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ cues, rising US producer prices, and hawkish Fed chatter could send USD/JPY toward 155.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD FX Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises Despite Weak UK GDP

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pushed higher on Thursday as an improving global risk mood helped offset the negative impact of disappointing UK GDP figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3154, up roughly 0.2% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) fell on Thursday as investors moved out of safe-haven assets and back toward risk-sensitive positions following the official end of the longest US government shutdown in history.

The House of Representatives approved a funding bill late on Wednesday, with President Donald Trump signing it into law shortly afterwards.

The resolution lifted sentiment across global markets and encouraged traders to rotate out of USD, weighing on the currency.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, found only limited support from the softer Dollar, with gains capped by the release of disappointing UK growth data earlier in the session.

Fresh figures showed the UK economy slowed more sharply than expected in the third quarter, expanding by just 0.1%, while September’s monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%.

The weaker readings deepened concerns ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, where speculation continues to grow over the likelihood of tax increases and further fiscal tightening.

These worries limited Sterling’s upside despite the broader risk-on backdrop.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Remarks in Focus

Looking ahead, GBP/USD may trade more cautiously on Friday, with no major UK or US economic releases due.

Instead, markets will turn to commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers — particularly Jeffrey Schmid, one of the more hawkish voices on the committee.

Any firm remarks on inflation risks or hints that rates may need to stay higher for longer could lend USD fresh support.

For the Pound, political unease ahead of the autumn budget and concerns over the UK’s weakening growth outlook may keep Sterling vulnerable into the weekend, especially with traders continuing to price in further Bank of England rate cuts.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

Created on November 13, 2025

• The British Pound weakened through Wednesday, pressured by expectations of upcoming Bank of England rate cuts.
• The analyst sees 1.30 as possible support, but a break below 1.32 could send GBP/USD toward 1.2750 amid persistent U.S. dollar strength.

The British Pound has spent the bulk of its trading on Wednesday to the downside. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see downward pressure, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to fall off a cliff. The market could be looking at the 1.30 level underneath as a potential target.

Maybe 1.30 is a Floor

It could, in theory, be a floor, but at this point, I think breaking down below the 1.32 level kicks off a move all the way down to the 1.2750 level. The 1.2750 level is an area where we had seen a lot of momentum to the upside back in April, and now it looks like we are going to do a complete round trip. This is about the US dollar more than the British Pound.

Although we had recently seen a little bit of a rally in the Pound due to the fact that the Bank of England chose not to cut rates, the vote was very close, and it does suggest that we are in fact, going to see British rate cuts rather quickly. With this being the case, the market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think you have a scenario where each time it rallies, you have to be looking for selling opportunities.

If the market does in fact rally and give up the gains, the market then fires off another selling signal. As far as buying is concerned, I’d have to see the British Pound break above the 200-day EMA at the very minimum to start thinking about buying. Furthermore, I’d have to see the US dollar struggle against multiple other currencies—it wouldn’t just be here.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 13, 2025

• The US dollar surged against the Japanese yen, breaking above 154.50 and testing 155 as bullish momentum remains strong.
• Supported by the wide interest rate gap, dips are likely to attract buyers, with long-term upside potential toward 159 yen.

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking above the crucial 154.50 yen level and even testing the 155 yen level. That being said, I think we do have further to go, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we pull back slightly, but there are buyers underneath that I think continue to push this pair higher.

Interest Rate Continues to Play a Part

The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar over the Japanese yen, and that won’t change anytime soon. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are looking for some type of reason to get long or perhaps even buy dips in order to hang on to a bigger move.

I do think we’ve got a situation where if we were to break down below the 153 yen level, then maybe we have to step back and let the market do its thing, wait for a bounce, and then get involved.

But right now, I don’t see any reason to short this market. I think you’ve got a scenario where there is just going to be too much bullish pressure at this point to consider trying to go against the overall flow of things. In fact, I think as long as we can stay above the 150 yen level, there’s a real world in which the US dollar is still going to rip to the upside. In fact, my longer-term target is closer to 159 yen, but it doesn’t have to happen overnight. Quite frankly, I don’t think it will. This is going to be more or less a grind, but you get paid at the end of every day to be on the long side of this trade.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 13, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1540 – 1.1490 – 1.1400
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1620 – 1.1700 – 1.1780

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

In the short and medium term, the EUR/USD pair is in a strong downtrend, and the move towards and below the psychological support level of 1.1500 confirms this trend. Recent attempts to rebound upwards have not been enough to stop the losses, and a cautious wait-and-see approach will remain the order of the day until the US government shutdown ends, which is increasing the uncertainty surrounding the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

Technically, and according to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing a slight downward trend that may continue until the end of the year, following the strong rally seen in the first half of 2025. A new analysis of the weekly chart shows that the exchange rate reached an overbought condition in the first half of the year, and the subsequent pullback has allowed this trend to reverse, in line with the forex market’s trend towards returning to the average.

The chart shows that the currency pair is now capped by its 9-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently at 1.1615, signaling that this decline will persist longer. This indicator has limited the series of rallies the pair has seen in recent weeks, confirming the weak demand for the Euro. Overall, this reflects the stability of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy, as no further interest rate cuts or hikes are expected in the foreseeable future. According to Forex currency market trading, we observe that the EUR/USD pair tends to reliably move on both sides of the 9-day EMA, meaning the recent breach below this line may lead to further declines in the coming weeks.

The 9-day EMA guided the strong upward trend that began in March, pushing the pair from 1.04 to a peak of 1.1918 in mid-September.

This means a drop to the 1.14 support level is expected by the end of 2025.

Keep in mind that the weekly ranges since last September have been relatively limited: large moves are usually concentrated during specific weeks. Therefore, we are likely going through a consolidation phase similar to the January-August 2024 period when the Euro/Dollar moved sideways around 1.08. If we are in such a phase, periods of weakness should be relatively limited, as should periods of strength. Accordingly, our preferred tactical approach is to trade the EUR/USD pair between 1.14 and 1.17, expecting the price to return to its mean at extreme levels, which could bring the exchange rate back to around 1.16.

A strong upward trend for the EUR/USD will remain contingent on the resistance levels of 1.1800 and 1.2000, respectively.

Trading Advice:

The anticipated strong movement of the EUR/USD pair in either direction will be significant, so carefully monitor the factors influencing currency prices and do not take risks, regardless of the available trading opportunities.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

The GBPJPY pair didn’t record any new positive target since yesterday, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, forming sideways trading to keep its fluctuation near 203.10 level.

Reminding you that the stability above the support level at 201.70 forms a main factor to confirm the bullish scenario, which makes us wait to gather bullish momentum, motivating the pressure on the barrier at 203.95 to find an exit for resuming the bullish attack in the near period and recording extra gains that might begin at 204.65 and 205.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.50 and 204.65

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair continued forming strong positive trading, approaching the previously suggested initial main target at 179.70 level, noting that the continuation of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing the current period trading to 179.70 level, to open the way of recording extra gains, forming extra main target at 180.60 level in the positive trading.

While the price failure to surpass 179.70 level might force it to provide mixed trading, and there is a chance of activating the attempts of gathering gains, forming some corrective trading to target 178.65 level reaching the support near 178.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 178.80 and 180.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The GBP/USD forecast shows a bearish bias amid weak UK GDP data and increased optimism around the US shutdown resolution.

• The GDP data revealed a 0.1% QoQ rise in Q3 of 2025 instead of the expected 0.2% figure.

• Traders await commentary from MPC Greene and FOMC officials for further impetus. 

The GBP/USD forecast shows a mild bearish momentum as the pair trades lower around 1.3140 following the disappointing UK GDP data. The UK GDP came in at 0.1% QoQ in Q3, confirming slower economic growth, falling from 0.3% in Q2. 

–Are you interested in learning more about XRP price prediction? Check our detailed guide-

On a monthly basis, GDP witnessed a 0.1% contraction in September. Meanwhile, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production also missed forecasts, contracting further. This softer-than-expected data bolstered expectations of a December rate cut by the Bank of England. 

Additionally, the earlier UK labor market report came in softer. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.0%, and the wage growth declined as well. These developments weigh on the pound sterling, as traders price in a flexible monetary outlook. 

From the US, the greenback strengthened modestly amid heightened optimism surrounding the US government reopening this week. The House of Representatives voted 222 to 209 to approve the funding package on Wednesday. The shutdown lift is likely to release major economic data that were delayed earlier. 

However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted on Wednesday that the October jobs and inflation data are unlikely to be released. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s opined a hawkish remarks and warned against premature policy easing, boosting the dollar further. 

GBP/USD Daily Key Events

The major events in the day include:

• MPC Member Greene Speaks
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks
• FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
• FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
• FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

On Thursday, traders look ahead to speeches from MPC member Greene’s and FOMC members Daly, Kashkari, Musalem, and Hammack for further cues into monetary policies. 

GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Selling Pressure Persists Under Key MAs

The GBP/USD 4-hour chart reflects a mild rebound in the pair as it trades near 1.3140. However, the momentum remains limited below key resistance levels. The price remains below the key 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs, with continued selling pressure, underscoring the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA, around 1.3147 is an immediate resistance zone. While the 200-MA near 1.3300 acts as a catalyst for a continued downside. 

–Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- 

The RSI holds near 50, indicating a neutral to weak momentum. A break above 1.3150 could pave the way for the bulls to come into control. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3100 could extend the losses towards the next support zone. 

Support Levels

Resistance Levels

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.