– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Bank of England in Focus as GBP Struggles

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has drifted around 1.3500, with markets cautious ahead of the upcoming Bank of England policy update and ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy prices and UK politics.

While stronger UK data has offered some support, rising cost pressures, leadership risks, and expectations that the Bank of England may hold rates are limiting Sterling’s upside.

GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE update due

ING forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will edge lower to 1.33 at the end of 2026 before a slight gain to 1.36 at the end of next year.

GBP/USD drifted lower during the week to trade around 1.35 amid further uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation and mixed UK fundamentals.

Energy prices will remain a key short-term element. Matsui Securities commented; “Oil and the dollar are still moving pretty closely together, and with crude creeping back up, I’d say the dollar is still staying fairly firm.”

There were further political concerns during the week as the Mandelson scandal continued.

ING commented; “the risk of a leadership change in Downing Street is growing. Markets are wary that a new prime minister – and, by extension, chancellor – might mean more borrowing and looser fiscal rules.

The headline UK PMI business confidence data was stronger than expected, but business confidence dipped to the lowest level since 2022 and there was a very sharp increase in cost pressures and prices.

The Bank of England remains in a very difficult position. Following the data, markets priced in a 75% chance of a rate hike by June.

ING discussed the April 30th BoE decision; “in short, we’d expect the Bank to keep its options open. Avoid doing anything that could add to rate hike bets in markets, but without trying to actively talk them down, either.

It added; “Ultimately, though, we don’t think the Bank will hike rates this year – not at the current level of energy prices. We expect rates to stay at 3.75% in April and June, and for the rest of 2026.”

Bank of America also remains cautious over the UK outlook; “Despite a much better unemployment reading, underlying weakness persists. And the unfolding energy shock will also revive fears of higher unemployment in the near-term.

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The USD/JPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.

BoJ interest rate decision

The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy. 

A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.

The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.

The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.

In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.

Federal Reserve decision and key macro data

The next key catalyst for the USD/JPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.

The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.

Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.

The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.

No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.

Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70

Trend forecast: Sideways 

The USDJPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.

BoJ interest rate decision

The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.

A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.

The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.

The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.

In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.

Federal Reserve decision and key macro data

The next key catalyst for the USDJPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.

The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.

Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.

USDJPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.

The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.

The backdrop in EUR/USD is likely to be determined at least partially by the time frame with which the trader or analyst is looking. From a fundamental basis, there’s been periods where the backdrop has appeared to be divorced from the price action such as the sliding sell-off in March even as the European Central Bank was widely considered to be on the way to rate hikes. But, realistically, it was the confusion around oil prices and the implications around that which was likely driving the waves, and as we go into next week, in which we’ll get both European CPI data and a European Central Bank rate decision, EUR/USD can be justified in either direction depending on the vantage point that it’s being looked at.

From the weekly chart, we have price re-testing a massive area of importance, the same 76.4-78.6% expanse from the 2021-2022 major move, a zone that’s been in-play for more than nine months now as the massive rally of 2025 met it’s match at that zone.

From the below chart, it looks like a stall at a lower-high following a lower-low, thereby keeping the door open for sellers to make a push until or unless resistance can be tested through.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD Daily

From the daily, and this is what I had looked at in the USD article on Friday, this is simpler to justify on the long side given the recent higher-high and the pullback that, so far, has held support around the 76.4% retracement of the move looked at above. There’s even scope for deeper support, to around 1.1628-1.1655, which can keep the door open for bullish continuation scenarios.

Key resistance at this point is the same 1.1835 level that held the highs right around when the USD was probing for support around the 97.94 Fibonacci level.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD Intra-Day

From the four-hour chart, we can see that the bounce is still young and it’s the 1.1748-1.1766 zone that stands out as an area that bulls can stake their claim. Buyers would need to press above that to make a more convincing move, which would then open the door for a re-test of resistance at 1.1835, and perhaps more beyond that level.

For next week, I’m considering EUR/USD as one of the more attractive backdrops for USD-weakness and the daily chart above is a big reason why.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/JPY

Next week is big for the Yen with the Bank of Japan rate meeting earlier in the week, and as we came into last week, the EUR/JPY pair was in the midst of a massive breakout.

For the past two weeks, however, that stunning strength has turned into indecision following the bull pennant breakout.

EUR/JPY Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/JPY Daily

As I looked at in the US Dollar article earlier, I think the USD/JPY pair is the main push point for FX markets next week with the Bank of Japan rate decision and the prospect of rate hikes from the BoJ in the coming months. If Ueda sounds hawkish and frightens carry traders, we can see fast unwind. If he’s too soft and doesn’t seem ready to hike, we could see the 160.00 level tested which could spur a round of Yen-weakness elsewhere.

Looking at EUR/JPY in a vacuum, and it looks like there could be a deeper pullback as horizontal support and lower-highs makes for a short-term descending triangle formation. That wouldn’t necessarily have to turn into a full-fledged reversal, as it may simply be a pullback in the broader bullish trend that opens the door for re-test of the 185.00 level.

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

— written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote on 19th April that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160. This did not set up.

2. Long of Brent Crude Futures if we get a daily close above $112.50. This also did not set up.

Neither of these trades set up.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. US Retail Sales – the month-on-month increase was higher than expected, at 1.7% not 1.4%. This suggests a more buoyant US economy which would tend to be a hawkish pull on the Fed, boosting the USD.

2. UK CPI (inflation) – an annualized rate of 3.3% as expected.

3. Canada CPI (inflation) – lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.9% when 1.1% was widely forecasted. This is a dovish tilt for the Bank of Canada, which would tend to weaken the CAD.

4. New Zealand CPI (inflation) – slightly higher than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% while 0.8% was forecasted. This is perhaps a marginally hawkish tilt for the RBNX.

5. Germany & UK Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI

6. UK Retail Sales – UK was above expectations; Germany was below expectations.

7. UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims) – marginally worse than expected.

For yet another week, last week’s economic data releases were much less influential upon the markets than the ongoing US/Iran negotiations. Optimism that the war will come to a full end soon with some kind of deal and an open Strait of Hormuz continued to increase, and this sent stock markets rising modestly, especially in the USA. The S&P 500 Index has risen by over 13% within just the past three weeks after reaching a new 7-month low. It closed Friday at a new record high! This is a huge turnaround, and April is on track to being the best month for the S&P 500 Index in 52 years.

However, after markets closed Friday, the mood will have soured considerably, after the Iranian ambassador left prepared talks in Islamabad and the USA never sent a delegation. Towards the end of Saturday, President Trump said he wasn’t going to waste time trying to set up a meeting, and that if the Iranians wanted to talk, they should call him, because he “held all the cards”. Trump claimed the Iranians’ proposed deal was poor, but was then followed by a much better offer, which was still unacceptable to him. Prediction markets open over the weekend reacted by showing a much lower chance of a peace deal before the end of June.

Trump will continue the blockade, which is estimated to be costing Iran about $400 – $500 million per day. It may be that the USA will launch fresh attacks – US military tankers have been observed building up at Israeli airports, just as was so before the initial hostilities erupted at the end of February.

Another issue that is increasingly being talked about is the delayed impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting forced shutdown of many of Iran’s oil wells. Some analysts see demand for crude oil lowering on the higher prices which are forcing a decrease in consumption, with businesses scaling back.

The Week Ahead: 27th April – 1st May

The outcome of negotiations and the ceasefire concerning the Middle East war is likely to remain very influential on the market over the coming week, but there are several scheduled items, including major central bank policy meetings, which could have a big impact.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2. US Core PCE Price Index

3. US Advance GDP

4. US Employment Cost Index

5. Bank of Japan Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Report, and Outlook Report.

6. European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement Australia CPI (inflation)

7. Bank of England Official Bank Rate & Votes, Monetary Policy Summary & Report

8. Bank of Canada Overnight Rate, Policy Report, and Rate Statement

9. Australia CPI (inflation)

10. Canadian GDP

Monday is a public holiday in Australia.

Wednesday is a public holiday in Japan.

Friday is a public holiday in China, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Italy.

Monthly Forecast April 2026

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of April, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. The performance of the forecast so far:

Weekly Forecast 27th April 2026

Last week, I made no weekly forecasts as there were no unusual movements in the Forex market last week.

Volatility last week was relatively low, with only 3% of currency pairs moving by more than 1% in value. Next week’s volatility is likely to increase substantially, with several major central bank policy meetings (including the Federal Reserve) scheduled, and some important GDP and inflation data too.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Technical Analysis

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Key Support and Resistance Levels

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar printed an indecisive inside bar which was also a doji candlestick. It had a small range. We have a mixed long-term trend, with the 3-month trend bullish and the 6-month trend bearish.

The greenback is clearly within a long-term consolidation phase, so we cannot really expect much of a trend in the US Dollar here.

I think the greenback will be more driven by the progress in the current Middle East ceasefire talks – if war breaks out again, it will likely boost the Dollar, not so much as a haven but more as an effect of the inflationary shock of the rising energy prices. If we start to see progress on a real long-term deal, conversely, it will probably be bearish for the US Dollar. Markets were optimistic about a deal last week, but the events of this weekend and the seeming absence of talks will, as things stand, generate a more risk-off market environment as the new week gets underway.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair gained a little ground last week, four weeks after finally making the long-anticipated bullish breakout beyond the big round number at ¥160. However, the price is showing no inclination to go anywhere yet. The problem is not Yen weakness, which can be taken for granted over the long-term it seems. The problem for progress higher by this currency pair is the weakness in the US Dollar now that there is a ceasefire seen as leading to a peace deal in the Middle East war, because if there is a longer-term agreement it will remove some inflationary pressure from the Fed through lower energy prices. Even if the Dollar does strengthen on risk-off sentiment, the Yen might firm up too for the same reason.

Trend traders will be worrying about the slight bearish bias we are seeing near the highs and the price’s unwillingness to break out, especially above the ¥160 level. The Bank of Japan might get nervous and work for an intervention to strengthen the Yen above that level, adding a potential extra hurdle for bulls.

Bulls might however be encouraged by the solid support at the lows below ¥158.50. There is also a very solid trend line which has been supporting the price action for a year.

I remain long here, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a daily (New York) close above ¥160 before entering a new long trade.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index has been on a wild ride over the past few weeks, rising by more than 13% in value within that time. If this holds up, it will be the biggest calendar month gain by the Index since 1987, or possibly even 1974. This is quite an extraordinary turnaround after the price fell by about 10% to spend several days trading below the 200-day simple moving average and reaching new 7-month low prices. This is extraordinarily high volatility and an unusual event.

Although last week’s gain was not so large, the price ended the week right on the high of its range in blue sky, which is a bullish sign as it makes a new record high.

Stock markets are soaring through the same driver that was sending them plummeting just a few weeks ago – the war between the USA and Iran. The ceasefire and negotiations have generated an increasingly strong expectation that the war will end soon with a comprehensive peace deal. This sent markets higher, but there is a strong chance of this Index gapping down when markets open Monday due to the more pessimistic developments concerning the prospect of a USA/Iran deal.

I think it will be wise to wait on the sidelines and see what the market does on Monday. If we get a daily close at the end of Monday that is higher than Friday’s closing price, a new long trade entry will look extremely tempting.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Price Chart

NASDAQ 100 Index

Everything I wrote above about the S&P 500 Index applies equally to the NASDAQ 100 Index, with the small adjustment that the bullish breakout to new record highs here looks even stronger. As the NASDAQ 100 averages a higher return than the S&P 500 Index, so if you want to be long there, you should seriously consider being long here too.

NASDAQ 100 Index Weekly Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent Crude Oil rose slightly last week, with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran driving the price a little higher.

This continuation of the closure situation might push the price up a bit, but it is unlikely to send prices to new highs. I am not sure that the price will fall a great deal further even if there is a peace deal, it may take a while to do that, but it should continue to trade lower in that scenario.

The surprise to consider is, what if renewed kinetic war breaks out now talks have failed twice and Iran has said it no longer considers itself bound by the ceasefire. If this happened, it would certainly send the price of oil racing higher, we might even see the price rise by $20 in a single day.

I think that unless you have a strong view on whether a resumption of the war is likely, there is no point trading crude oil right now, but on a surprise resumption of the war, a long trade could be a good idea.

I will go long here if we get a daily (New York) close above $112.50 per barrel.

If you do go long, Brent will likely be the better vehicle than WTI, as it is more exposed to events in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Weekly Price Chart

Gasoline Futures

RBOB Gasoline Futures rose strongly last week, with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran driving the price higher.

This continuation of the closure situation might push the price up a bit, but it is unlikely to send prices to new highs. We will likely see the price continue to trade higher as the new week opens as face-to-face peace talks fail again and President Trump apparently rejects two Iranian offers. Unless there is a dramatically different development, this looks like a buy right away. If kinetic war breaks out, which is possible if unlikely, the price will probably rise even more strongly.

I am not sure that the price will fall a great deal further even if there is a peace deal, it may take a while to do that, but it should trade lower in that scenario.

Gasoline is leading and rising ahead of crude oil, making it a more attractive buy right now. The only thing bulls should be watching out for are high volatility, and the fact that the price is just under the absolute recent high but has not quite broken above it.

Gasoline futures are too large for most retail traders, so using a CFD or an ETF like UGA could be a more accessible way to get exposure.

Gasoline Futures Weekly Price Chart

Bottom Line

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160.

2. Long of Brent Crude Futures if we get a daily close above $112.50. This is extremely unlikely to set up unless there is a surprise resumption of the war.

3. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 7,165.

4. Long of the NASDAQ 500 Index following a daily close above 27,303.