ADP Employment Change report showed that private businesses added 98,000 jobs in June, compared to analyst forecast of 113,000. Tomorrow, traders will focus on the Non Farm Payrolls report, which is expected to show that U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in June. The Non Farm Payrolls data will likely have a material impact on forex market dynamics.
In case U.S. Dollar Index settles above 101.15 – 101.30, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 101.85 – 102.00 range. On the support side, a move below the 101.15 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next support at 100.50 – 100.65.
EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Inflation Rate Drops To 2.8%
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1375 – 1.1320 – 1.1250
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1530 – 1.1580
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1365 with a target of 1.1430 and a stop-loss at 1.1300
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1530 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1600
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
The EUR/USD currency pair is attempting to recover a portion of its losses at the start of July trading, after ending June with its steepest monthly bearish wave in several months. This comes amid persistent pressure stemming from slowing European inflation and as markets closely await comments from central bank officials. The sharp losses suffered last month dragged the pair down to the support level of 1.1324, its lowest level in over a year. At the time of writing, the Euro is stabilizing around $1.1425.
The technical outlook for the currency pair remains bearish. According to the performance on the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing below the 50 level reflects continued seller dominance. Meanwhile, the negative slope of the MACD indicator indicates weakening buying momentum and the likelihood of sustained selling pressure. The movement of the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) warns of further downward movement as long as the currency pair remains below the 1.1400 level.
Conversely, an upside scenario on the daily chart would require the EUR/USD pair to head toward breaking the resistance barrier at 1.1580, and then 1.1700 respectively.
Today, the currency pair will be influenced by market and investor reactions to statements from central bank officials, particularly the heads of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve, during an event hosted by the ECB that gathers a number of global central bank policymakers.
Falling Inflation Weighs on the Euro
Across top trading platforms, the Euro faces mounting pressure following the release of French and German inflation data that came in lower than market expectations. This has reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank’s need to continue raising interest rates in the coming period is diminishing.
Data showed that inflation in Germany fell by 0.3% on a monthly basis, while the annual rate slowed to 2.3% against expectations of 2.6%. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.3% during June, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 1.8% compared to a forecast of 2.1%.
Analysts believe that the ongoing slowdown in inflation could prompt markets to pare back bets on any additional interest rate hikes, which may cap the Euro’s gains against major currencies. Andreas Steno Larsen of Real Vision noted that the recent data strengthens the likelihood of the ECB shifting its approach in the coming period.
Despite this, ECB officials maintain a cautious stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that energy price pressures could keep inflation above the target level for some time.
For its part, ING Bank expects a temporary spike in inflation during the second half of the year due to base effects in energy prices, before it returns to levels below 2% over the medium term. The bank stressed that current conditions differ from the severe inflationary wave witnessed globally in 2022, noting the absence of indicators pointing to a new inflationary spiral.
Consequently, the Euro may receive limited support in the short term due to the ECB’s continued cautious tone. However, the persistent slowdown in inflation could drive markets to lower interest rate hike expectations, potentially keeping the single currency under pressure in the coming months.
Trading Advice:
The Euro may remain under selling pressure until the market reacts to upcoming high-impact data releases. Regardless of your bullish or bearish convictions, strict risk management is absolutely essential.
Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context to understand market trends, paying close attention to price behavior, momentum, support and resistance levels, risk management, and evaluating high-probability market opportunities.
Copper price ended the last positive rebound by reaching $6.2000 level, to begin forming bearish corrective trading, affected by the stability below $6.300 barrier, to reach $6.0500 currently.
Gathering extra negative momentum is important for reinforcing the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9500, to open the way for targeting more corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.820 and $6.1500
The EURJPY pair succeeded in holding above 184.20 level, to reinforce its surrender to the bullish scenario, to record the previously suggested main target at 185.80.
Facing %66.8 Fibonacci correction level makes us monitor its behavior and wait for the next close to detect the main trend, so the stability above 185.80 will provide a chance for targeting more positive stations by its rally towards 186.20 and 186.60, while the failure to breach it will force the price to provide mixed sideways trading, with a chance to decline towards 184.90 before any attempt to record the suggested targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 185.30 and 186.20
The GBP/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a nearly two-week high around the 1.3275 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3235 zone, down 0.20% for the day, as traders look to speeches from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh for a fresh impetus.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has been struggling to make it through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakdown below the 1.3300 mark, which, in turn, favors bearish traders. However, mixed momentum indicators warrant some caution before positioning for deeper losses.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 52, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a fading positive bias. This, in turn, hints at limited upside while the GBP/USD pair remains capped by the clustered resistance overhead. In the meantime, the key support around 1.3139 remains the key structural floor, and a clear break below would open the door for a continuation of the broader downtrend.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. level at 1.3260, with further barriers aligned at the 38.2% retracement around 1.3335 and the 200-period SMA at 1.3360, ahead of the 50.0% retracement near 1.3396. A sustained move beyond the said barriers would start to ease the broader bearish bias and pave the way for a more convincing recovery phase. However, a failure would leave the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to slide further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech
Andrew Bailey is the Bank of England‘s Governor. He took office on March 16th, 2020, at the end of Mark Carney’s term. Bailey was serving as the Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority before being designated. This British central banker was also the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England from April 2013 to July 2016 and the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England from January 2004 until April 2011.
The US dollar, of course, is rallying against the Canadian dollar, with the 1.42 level offering a little bit of support and the 1.4250 level being a little bit of resistance. This is a strong uptrend for multiple reasons, not the least of which would be the fact that oil had sold off, but more importantly, in this pair, the interest rate differential favors the United States, not to mention the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates a couple of times between now and the end of the year.
The 1.43 level will be targeted. After that, we could be talking about 1.45.
Overall Trend: Bearish, with sellers remaining in control
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1365 – 1.1290 – 1.1220
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1530 – 1.1580
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1360 with a target of 1.1430 and a stop-loss at 1.1300
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1520 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1590
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
The EUR/USD pair kicked off the week’s trading with recovery attempts following a strong sell-off wave that pushed the pair to its lowest levels in nearly a year. However, this rebound is still viewed as a corrective move within a primary bearish trend, given the continued outperformance of the US Dollar, supported by robust US economic data and growing expectations that tight monetary policy will be maintained for a longer period.
According to the best trusted trading platforms, the Euro is stabilizing against the Dollar around the 1.1425 level at the time of writing this analysis.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1325 area after entering a clear oversold zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 30, which often indicates a potential short-term technical correction due to profit-taking and repositioning by investors.
Despte this improvement, the overall technical picture remains tilted to the negative side. The pair continues to trade below the pivotal resistance level at 1.1500. Also, it moves below the 100-day Moving Average. Obviously, reflecting the continued dominance of the bearish trend over the medium term.
If the current rebound persists, the pair might target a retest of the area between 1.1480 and 1.1500. However, this zone could witness a return of selling pressures unless the price manages to clearly close above it.
On the downside, the 1.1350 level remains the first important support zone, while the recent bottom at 1.1325 represents a key level to monitor, as breaking it could open the door for a new downward wave targeting lower levels in the coming period.
In my view, as long as the pair remains below 1.1500, any upward movement will remain a selling opportunity rather than the start of a new uptrend, especially given the continued divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s policies.
Fundamental Factors Driving Euro Movements
Beyond technical indicators, investors are anticipating a batch of European data this week that could directly impact the single currency’s movements. Foremost among these are the preliminary inflation readings in Spain, France, Germany, and Italy, ahead of the release of the eurozone’s flash aggregate reading.
This data is of particular importance as it could determine the European Central Bank’s direction in its upcoming meetings, especially following persistent concerns over services sector inflation, which remains one of the most prominent challenges facing monetary policymakers.
Currently, all eyes are on the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, where investors await any new signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the future of interest rates. A hawkish tone could provide temporary support for the euro, while statements suggesting a possible pause in monetary tightening could increase pressure on the European currency.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remains the primary driver of the pair’s direction, with markets anticipating US labor market data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, a key indicator influencing Federal Reserve decisions.
Forecasts indicate a slowdown in the pace of job creation compared to previous months, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain near 4.3%, with average monthly wages continuing to grow.
According to Forex market trading, the Dollar’s strength over the past weeks was driven by the release of economic data that beat forecasts. Along with rising market bets on the potential continuation of tight monetary policy, which boosted demand for the US currency.
However, any negative surprise in jobs data or economic activity indicators could prompt investors to reduce their bets on interest rate hikes, potentially giving the euro a chance to continue its corrective rebound.
Technical Outlook Summary
The most likely scenario remains a continuation of the short-term technical recovery as long as the pair trades above 1.1325. However, this rebound will remain limited unless the price manages to break through the 1.1500 level and close above it.
Conversely, if buyers fail to overcome this resistance, coupled with the release of strong US data, selling pressure could quickly resurface and push the pair towards its recent low, with the overall trend remaining bearish until further notice.
Trading Advice:
the Euro may remain under selling pressure until the reaction to upcoming major releases—specifically the US payrolls. Regardless of your conviction to buy or sell, strict risk management is absolutely essential amid the ongoing state of market uncertainty.
The EURJPY pair confirmed delaying the negative attempts, with the positive momentum that comes from the main indicators, to attempt to record some gains by reaching 185.35.
Note that the continuation of facing positive pressures, by the attempt of forming an initial support at 184.20 level, which might help it to reinforce the chances of recording extra gains by targeting 185.85 level, while the return of the fluctuation below 184.20 will reinforce the chances of forming new bearish trading, to expect reaching 183.50 level initially, attempting to reach the next support at 182.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 184.40 and 185.80
The EURJPY pair confirmed delaying the negative attempts, with the positive momentum that comes from the main indicators, to attempt to record some gains by reaching 185.35.
Note that the continuation of facing positive pressures, by the attempt of forming an initial support at 184.20 level, which might help it to reinforce the chances of recording extra gains by targeting 185.85 level, while the return of the fluctuation below 184.20 will reinforce the chances of forming new bearish trading, to expect reaching 183.50 level initially, attempting to reach the next support at 182.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 184.40 and 185.80
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asians session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day’s strong move up to a one-week top. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a three-day winning streak and currently trade around the 1.3235-1.3230 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction amid mixed signals on US-Iran talks and firming expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in 2026. Furthermore, the UK political uncertainty ahead of a leadership contest is seen as undermining the British Pound (GBP) and exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Moreover, spot prices retain a negative bias below the 1.3300 mark, though momentum indicators suggest that upside attempts could persist while the broader structure is still constrained by the overhead supply zone.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 54 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains modestly positive. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find a decent support near the 1.3200 mark, below which the GBP/USD pair could aim to retest the year-to-date low, around the 1.3140 region, and decline further.
On the topside, initial resistance is located near the 1.3300 round figure, which is followed by the 200-period SMA at 1.3366. A sustained strength above this barrier would start to ease the broader bearish bias and open the way for a more convincing recovery phase, though a failure would leave the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to resume its downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.28%
0.19%
0.16%
0.16%
0.21%
-0.02%
0.24%
EUR
-0.28%
-0.09%
-0.15%
-0.16%
-0.08%
-0.31%
-0.05%
GBP
-0.19%
0.09%
-0.04%
-0.08%
0.02%
-0.21%
0.03%
JPY
-0.16%
0.15%
0.04%
0.00%
0.05%
-0.16%
0.07%
CAD
-0.16%
0.16%
0.08%
-0.00%
0.03%
-0.17%
0.08%
AUD
-0.21%
0.08%
-0.02%
-0.05%
-0.03%
-0.20%
0.07%
NZD
0.02%
0.31%
0.21%
0.16%
0.17%
0.20%
0.23%
CHF
-0.24%
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.07%
-0.08%
-0.07%
-0.23%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
