No news for the EURJPY pair until this moment to form weak sideways trading by holding near 185.75 due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, besides the stability of 186.05 barrier against the attempts of resuming the bullish trend.
Therefore, we recommend waiting for the required breach to confirm its readiness to recover new gains that might begin at 186.65 and 187.30, while holding below the barrier might force it to form some bearish corrective trading, to target 184.80 and 184.20 level.
The expected trading range for today is between 185.45 and 186.65
The Euro (EUR) nurses moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP), with price action contained within the previous day’s range and market volatility muted, as investors brace for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. The EUR/GBP pair has pulled back to levels near 0.8570 from Thursday’s highs right below 0.8580, with the weekly chart showing marginal gains.
Looking ahead, analysts at Rabobank expect “further range trading in EUR/GBP over the coming weeks, with a mild upside bias later in the year as fiscal realism weighs and BoE rate hike risk is further priced out.” In line with this view, the bank says it “maintain[s] a 3-month EUR/GBP forecast of 0.87.”
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at 0.8585
EUR/GBP has been trading in a choppy and sideways manner since peaking at 0.8585 in late July. The pair is now trading at 0.8572, after another rejection at the 0.8580 area earlier in the week, with the near-term bias highlighting fading bullish traction.
Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts are pulling towards the neutral area. The Relative Strength Index lies around 57 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits just above zero, but the MACD line is attempting to cross below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.
Bears remain contained above the 08570 area so far, but the key support area is at the August 25 low, near 0.8545, followed by the late July and mid-August low, in the 0.8530 area. Bulls, on the other hand, would have to break the mentioned 0.8585 area (July 30, August 20 highs) to shift the focus towards a previous support area, right above 0.8600 (June 24, 30 highs).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.05%
0.03%
0.06%
-0.01%
-0.04%
-0.17%
0.04%
EUR
-0.05%
-0.01%
0.04%
-0.06%
-0.09%
-0.20%
-0.00%
GBP
-0.03%
0.01%
0.04%
-0.06%
-0.09%
-0.18%
0.02%
JPY
-0.06%
-0.04%
-0.04%
-0.08%
-0.10%
-0.24%
-0.03%
CAD
0.00%
0.06%
0.06%
0.08%
-0.03%
-0.16%
0.05%
AUD
0.04%
0.09%
0.09%
0.10%
0.03%
-0.12%
0.05%
NZD
0.17%
0.20%
0.18%
0.24%
0.16%
0.12%
0.21%
CHF
-0.04%
0.00%
-0.02%
0.03%
-0.05%
-0.05%
-0.21%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Thursday as changing expectations for central bank interest rates kept the pairing under pressure.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3581, having recovered slightly from an eight-day low of $1.3572 but remaining down on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) continued to trade on solid footing on Thursday, after Wednesday’s inflation figures prompted markets to revise their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move.
The latest core PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – suggested that price pressures remain stubbornly above target. This reinforced expectations that the US central bank could raise interest rates in the coming months.
This helped to keep USD supported into Thursday’s session.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) came under some pressure as markets pushed back their expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike from late 2026 to 2027.
The recent fall in global oil prices has reduced expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates this year, leaving Sterling on the back foot.
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Concerns surrounding the UK’s rising cost of living also dampened the appeal of the Pound, following news on Wednesday that the energy price cap will rise by 4% in October and could increase further in January.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Expectations in Focus
Looking ahead, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could remain a key focus on Friday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh due to deliver a keynote speech at the bank’s Jackson Hole symposium. The US will also publish its annual revision to the non-farm payroll figures.
A weak set of jobs figures, combined with a cautious message from Warsh, may dampen expectations for further Fed rate hikes and put the US Dollar under pressure. However, stronger payrolls data and a hawkish tone from the Fed chair could fuel a USD rally.
For the Pound, the UK’s economic calendar remains light on Friday. As a result, Sterling may struggle to gain momentum once again.
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GBP/JPY trades broadly flat on Thursday after Wednesday’s modest pullback ended a four-day winning streak. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 216.45, with momentum indicators suggesting limited buying interest.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) stays broadly weak as concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook and its relatively low interest rates compared with other major economies continue to weigh on the currency. This keeps the broader bias for GBP/JPY tilted to the upside.
That said, sentiment around the British Pound (GBP) also remains somewhat fragile, with UK fiscal concerns elevated ahead of the October 28 Budget. At the same time, the Bank of England’s (BoE) cautious stance and reluctance to raise interest rates further are limiting additional support for the Pound.
In the near term, GBP/JPY is likely to remain in consolidation mode, with Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Friday potentially providing the next directional catalyst.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY maintains a mildly bullish bias, although the technical setup points to consolidation rather than a strong directional move. The cross holds above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while also staying above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 215.72, keeping the broader structure constructive.
Momentum indicators, however, remain subdued. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 54, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays slightly above zero but shows fading positive momentum. At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 17 points to a weak trend, supporting the case for near-term consolidation.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 217.40, followed by the recent swing high and 100% retracement at 219.50. On the downside, the 215.84-215.72 area, where the 50-day SMA meets the 61.8% retracement, offers immediate support. A break lower could expose the 100-day SMA at 215, followed by the 50% retracement at 214.54 and the 200-day SMA near 212.82.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The EURJPY pair resisted the negative pressure that comes from stochastic exit from the overbought level, to settle above the initial support at 184.80 level, to rally higher and settle near 185.70 level.
Note that breaching 186.05 barrier and holding above it is important to confirm its readiness to resume the bullish trend by reaching 186.65 initially reaching 187.30, while the failure to breach this level will increase the chances of forming new corrective waves, to force it suffer some losses by reaching the initial support near 184.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 185.80 and 186.05
The EURGBP is affected by the continuation of the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bearish trend by its stability above the extra support at 0.8532 level, forming some bullish corrective waves, approaching the barrier at 0.8585.
Note that the stability of the trading within the bearish channel’s levels that appear in the above image and forming additional barriers by the moving average 55 stability near 0.8600 makes us keep the bearish scenario, to keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum to reach 0.8555, then repeat the pressure on the additional support to find an exit for resuming the main bearish trend.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8555 and 0.8590
When a currency pair fails to sustain a breakout after six months of upward momentum, the reversal often exposes a structural mismatch between conviction and positioning. GBP/USD has completed a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern and broken below the critical neckline, triggering institutional repositioning away from sterling as accumulated long positions face genuine downside vulnerability. This technical invalidation masks a deeper market assumption: that dollar strength persists on economic data confirmation alone—a vulnerability that central bank communications from Jackson Hole could rapidly overturn.
Some analysts might see this as nothing more than the usual ebb and flow of the Forex market, but could it be that something more significant is going on here with the GBP/USD?
Institutional Positioning and Recent Catalyst
Yesterday’s US Dollar-related high-level economic data releases came in exactly as were widely expected – a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the PCE and Preliminary GDP showing growth at 1.5%. Despite the lack of surprise, it seemed to be the case that getting the data safely out of the way was the catalyst for some institutional positioning. The US Dollar gained as a result, and this suggests that the path of least resistance in a currency pair such as GBP/USD is now switching to bearish rather than bullish.
It is also worth noting that the biggest moves in the Forex market have historically tended to happen on Thursdays.
Finally, the price is moving firmly lower after repeatedly testing and eventually failing to break out of the top of its long-term range, with a new 6-month high briefly made, and the price now looking as if it is going to traverse that range in a downwards direction. This might give a strong reward to risk ratio opportunity to short traders.
A few days ago, the technical picture was looking very bullish, and the price was threatening to break well above the 1.3650 area to go on to make fresh 6-month highs. It then began to look as if a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern was forming, but the neckline held. We now see a crucial lower high developed and the price finally pushed below the obvious neckline area near 1.3600, so it may be that this head and shoulders pattern finally completed after all. Both that and the repeated failures to exceed the high earlier are bearish signs of exhaustion amongst buyers.
Turning to horizontal support and resistance, the price action has printed new resistance levels, and the one that is holding now and easily absorbing attempts at buying is very confluent with the round number at 1.3600. This suggests that the first part of the London session today is likely to see a move lower. The former support level at 1.3618, which held cleanly as support, has now flipped very cleanly to become new resistance, and that is one of the most bearish signs you can see in the Forex market.
I have not marked it as a defined level, but support might well start to be felt at 1.3565 next.
GBP/USD H1 Price Chart Showing Shoulders
Behavioral Blind Spot: Jackson Hole Volatility Risk
The problem with technical analysis is that it tends to work in the absence of other disruptive factors which might appear from time to time: put simply, news about something which materially affects the perceived valuation of either currency in a currency pair. So, what might affect the British Pound or US Dollar that would upend consideration of technical factors? Most obviously, some form of surprise from relevant central bankers at this weekend’s Jackson Hole Symposium, or even very hawkish or dovish comments from the Fed Chair or more than a single FOMC member, might shift the market’s attitude to the US Dollar materially.
It is challenging to think of a similar risk to the British Pound. Some kind of European flare-up over Russia and Ukraine could hurt the Pound and might also produce a flow into the US Dollar as a safe haven when European currencies take a knock.
Alternative Bullish Scenario
Although technical and sentimental factors suggest the next major price movement will be lower, how might an alternative bullish scenario play out? There is a long-term bullish trend here, even though it is not very strong, but it has persisted over many months and could still provide a residual which will see prices moving higher again. Although the current bearish move looks serious, what if this is just a bearish retracement?
I see the most likely bullish scenario as being a move lower to 1.3565 / 1.3550 which then produces a strong bullish bounce, sucking in longs who push the price upwards to make a new 6-month high price, or at least back above the level at 1.3600 which looks like it has potential to be today’s pivotal point.
GBP/USD is worth watching because it has failed to break to a new long-term high, is showing bearish price action, and has a long way to fall while remaining within its dominant range, suggesting there could be a good opportunity to get involved on the short side. Alternatively, the pair may surprise if the long-term bullish trend reasserts itself and produces a fresh high within the next few days. Sentiment on the US Dollar and any surprises at Jackson Hole at the end of this week may prove crucial.
The US dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Wednesday, as we are looking at a situation where traders are watching the Bank of Japan, and the carry trade.
USD/JPY
The US dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Wednesday but then turned around to show signs of life as traders continue to see a lot of volatility in this pair, as well as many others.
Ultimately, the carry trade is still very much in play here, and with the Bank of Japan intervening multiple times, we have seen a little bit of suppression of price discovery. But ultimately, this is a market that is trying to get back to the 160 yen level, an area where we have not only seen resistance previously multiple times going in the past, but we also have the 50-day EMA in the same region.
Carry Trade and Key Moving Averages
Short-term pullbacks at this point in time are likely to test the uptrend line that we have been in for some time, with the 200-day EMA sitting just below there to offer support, all things being equal. USD/JPY is a market that I will remain long of. I’ve been long in for months, and I’m actually buying little micro positions on each dip to build my carry trade portfolio.
If we can get above the 160 yen level on a daily close, then I think it opens up the possibility of a challenge of the 162 yen level, an area that I think will remain important from previous action. And then you start to worry about intervention again.
Nonetheless, the carry trade is a very real thing, and the Japanese can only get so tight. The speech at Jackson Hole on Friday from Kevin Warsh could be the next big mover here.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
The GBPJPY pair faced some bearish pressures due to its stability below 21.85 besides stochastic exit from the overbought levels, which forces it to form some corrective trading by facing the initial support near 216.35.
The price needs extra bullish momentum, which allows it to settle above the current support, to confirm its readiness to activate the bullish trend by targeting 217.15, repeating the pressure to find an exit for recording extra gains in the upcoming period.
The expected trading range for today is between 216.10 and 217.85
EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains, trading around 185.60 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a constructive bullish tone as it holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The currency cross is advancing away from its mid-180s base while short-term averages stay stacked above the longer one, which hints at persistent upward pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.38 sits in positive territory but shy of overbought conditions, suggesting room for additional gains while upside momentum remains moderate rather than stretched. The EUR/JPY cross may rise toward the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 188.20.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support around the lower boundary of the ascending channel, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 185.19 and the 50-day EMA at 184.72. A break below this confluence support zone may cause the bearish reversal, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.06%
0.18%
-0.10%
0.20%
-0.24%
0.33%
0.30%
EUR
-0.06%
0.12%
-0.15%
0.19%
-0.29%
0.27%
0.24%
GBP
-0.18%
-0.12%
-0.30%
0.06%
-0.40%
0.16%
0.13%
JPY
0.10%
0.15%
0.30%
0.31%
-0.13%
0.46%
0.40%
CAD
-0.20%
-0.19%
-0.06%
-0.31%
-0.44%
0.16%
0.09%
AUD
0.24%
0.29%
0.40%
0.13%
0.44%
0.60%
0.53%
NZD
-0.33%
-0.27%
-0.16%
-0.46%
-0.16%
-0.60%
-0.06%
CHF
-0.30%
-0.24%
-0.13%
-0.40%
-0.09%
-0.53%
0.06%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
