The US dollar has fallen fairly significantly against the Swiss franc. But again, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are testing support at the 0.78 level to see if it holds. I think given enough time, we probably see the interest rate differential come back into play that does, of course, favor the United States dollar.

And if we get a little bit more risk appetite out there, I think that would make the difference. Ultimately, I am bullish on this pair. We are in a range, we’re getting close to the bottom of it, I’m looking for a bounce.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

• We have bounced nicely since then as interest rates in America have fallen a bit. That, of course, gives a little bit of relief from US dollar strength.

• The market is currently hanging around the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA indicators.

As we are between them, I think this is a scenario that if we can break above the 1.17 level, it could open up a move to the 1.18 level. If we break down below the low of the trading session on Thursday, that opens up a trapdoor, if you will. I think we will go much lower. Generally speaking, I would expect that with something in the bond markets happening, yields rising in America.

Market Noise and Consolidation

The EUR/USD market continues to see a lot of volatile moves and, of course, it will come down to the latest rumor or tweet or headline coming out of the Middle East. I think you have a situation where traders continue to see a lot of noise, a lot of choppiness, and continue to focus mainly, I believe, on short-term charts.

We are in the middle of a larger consolidation area between the 1.1850 level on the top and the 1.14 level on the bottom. Being in the middle, I think opens up the reality that we’re basically at fair value. This ‘mean reversion’ could be something we see occur time and time again.

So, unless we see something change consistently on a bigger time frame and bigger outlook, I think we’re just stuck here. We’ll see. The 50-day EMA looks like it could offer a little bit of resistance.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The GBPJPY pair provided some weak sideways waves by its stability near 214.00, affected by the continuation of the main indicators contradiction beside forming extra support at 213.30 level, obstructing the chances of resuming the previously suggested corrective trend.

The sideways range trading might continue currently, however the stability below 214.50 barrier makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, to repeat the pressure on 213.30 support, to find an exit for targeting more corrective stations by reaching 212.70 and 212.20, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will cancel the negative overview, providing strong chance for forming bullish waves in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.75 and 214.20

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Softer US Growth Caps US Dollar Gains

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a tight range on Thursday after recovering from an earlier dip during the European session.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3424, broadly unchanged from the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled to hold onto its earlier gains on Thursday following the release of weaker revised growth figures from the United States.

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down from 2% to 1.6%, with softer consumer spending and lower business investment weighing on the final estimate.

The downward revision largely erased the ‘Greenback’s’ earlier advance, which had been driven by a more cautious market mood and renewed demand for safe-haven assets.

Investor nerves were rattled by escalating tensions in the Middle East after fresh exchanges between the US and Iran, while comments from US President Donald Trump regarding Oman and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz added to geopolitical uncertainty.

The Pound (GBP) traded without clear direction on Thursday after a new report highlighted mounting problems within the UK labour market.

The government-backed review, led by former Health Secretary Alan Milburn, warned that more than one million young people are currently not in employment, education or training, raising fears over the long-term economic impact.

The report added to existing concerns surrounding the UK economy, particularly as signs of a broader labour market slowdown continue to emerge alongside growing pressure on public finances.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Bailey Speech to Drive Sterling?

Looking ahead to Friday’s session, aside from developments in the Middle East, the main focus for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to be comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

With markets still divided over whether the BoE could raise interest rates in June, investors will be watching Bailey closely for any clues regarding the central bank’s next policy move. Any hawkish signals may help to support Sterling.

Meanwhile, movement in the US Dollar is expected to remain closely tied to wider market sentiment, potentially allowing the safe-haven currency to strengthen if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.

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The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USd) exchange rate failed to sustain gains seen in early May and has dipped to test support below 1.16 amid a firm dollar in global terms.

Danske Bank has expected the dollar to remain firm in the short term, but has now changed its stance and the bank expects that the US currency will strengthen over the longer term.

Previously, the bank had expected EUR/USD to strengthen back above 1.20 on a 12-month view, but it has now changed its position sharply and is forecasting a retreat to 1.12 by the middle of 2027.

High energy prices will represent a clear short-term risk for the Euro and ECB rate hikes may only provide limited support.

Danske Bank considers that the dollar outlook has changed. It notes that the data has been resilient while there has been evidence of increased inflation pressure while AI-related investment is boosting growth. In this context, it considers that cyclical factors now support the dollar.

Although it expects that the Federal Reserve will decide against rate hikes, it expects a tightening bias on inflation grounds and rate cuts are likely to be off the agenda which will support the US currency.

Platinum price formed more of the bearish corrective trading, affected by providing negative momentum by the main indicators, reaching the initial target at $1865.00, which represents an extra support against the negative trading.

The suggested scenario depends on the strength of the current support, as holding above it will increase the chances of forming bullish waves, to attempt to reach $1960.00, to attack the moving average 55 at $2000.00, while the decline below the support and providing negative close will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $1805.00 and $1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $1950.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has steadied near 1.34 after suffering heavy losses earlier this month, although Rabobank believes Sterling remains vulnerable as UK political uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment.

GBP/USD traded near 1.3427 on Thursday, recovering modestly after falling towards 1.33 earlier in May amid renewed concerns surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Rabobank analysts noted that Pound Sterling has been one of the weakest major currencies during May, describing the Pound as “the third worst performing G10 currency” over the past month.

The bank believes politics has become the dominant driver behind recent Sterling weakness.

“Most commentators would agree that the poor performance of the pound in May can be linked to political uncertainty sparked by the local elections at the start of the month.”

Rabobank warned that uncertainty may continue throughout the summer given speculation surrounding possible Labour leadership changes.

“It would appear very likely that political uncertainty will drag on through the summer.”

The bank said investors remain concerned that the UK could face another prolonged period of unstable government after several years of political turbulence.

“From the point of view of investors who desire clear policy direction, the Labour party has behaved as an unruly coalition.”

Rabobank also cautioned that markets may become increasingly uneasy over fiscal risks if Labour shifts further to the left politically.

“The favourites to win any Labour leadership challenge are Burnham and Rayner, both representing the soft left of the party.”

While Andy Burnham has attempted to reassure investors by backing existing fiscal rules, Rabobank argued markets may still worry about higher taxes and borrowing.

“While Burnham has recently allayed fears about unfunded spending with the reassurance that he will stick to the current Chancellor’s fiscal rules, this implies the potential for an even higher tax burden to support spending plans.”

The bank also believes ongoing Middle East tensions could continue supporting the US Dollar through safe-haven demand.

“We see scope for further dips in cable back to the GBP/USD1.33 level on a 1-month view.”

Rabobank expects UK political uncertainty to remain an important drag on Sterling during the second half of 2026.

Other Banks More Constructive on Sterling Outlook

Rabobank’s cautious Pound Sterling outlook contrasts with several other major investment banks.

RBC Capital Markets forecasts GBP/USD rising back towards 1.40 during 2027, while Westpac and Scotiabank also expect medium-term gains for Sterling. Natixis sees GBP/USD climbing gradually towards 1.39 by late 2027.

However, Citi and Danske Bank remain more cautious, warning that slowing UK growth and political instability could keep Sterling under pressure.

Rabobank believes Pound Sterling could remain vulnerable in coming months as political uncertainty and safe-haven US Dollar demand continue to overshadow support from UK interest-rate expectations.

• During the beginning of the trading session on Wednesday, we have seen a lot of Euro strength but have since rolled over to show signs of hesitation.

• We are sitting just above the 200-day EMA, and the 200-day EMA will continue to be very important. If we break down below there, then we could go challenging the 1.16 level.

To the upside, the 1.17 level is an area that I think we might try to get to if we get a little bit more bullish or risk appetite behavior jumping into the market. Keep in mind that interest rates in America are still pretty high and that does help the dollar, but at the same time, most of what we’re seeing here is a question as to whether or not things can get sorted out in the Middle East. If they can, that at least in theory should be good for the Euro because it might relieve some of the energy concerns in certain parts of it, like the industrial sector in Germany.

Consolidation and Market Noise

Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, I think it continues to be very choppy, and I think it also continues to see a lot of questions as of where to go next.

The EUR/USD pair is basically in the middle of a larger consolidation area between the 1.14 level and the 1.1850 level, but the price action on Wednesday tells me that the market still favors the dollar in general. I’m not looking for massive moves, but I think short term rallies probably offer selling opportunities for short term moves. Nothing major here, not longer term, just the way the market has been behaving.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Platinum price formed more of the bearish corrective trading, affected by providing negative momentum by the main indicators, reaching the initial target at $1865.00, which represents an extra support against the negative trading.

The suggested scenario depends on the strength of the current support, as holding above it will increase the chances of forming bullish waves, to attempt to reach $1960.00, to attack the moving average 55 at $2000.00, while the decline below the support and providing negative close will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $1805.00 and $1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $1950.00

Trend forecast: Bullish