SEC Filings and Coinbase Responses Create Uncertainty

In January, the SEC requested Judge Failla consider the Terraform Labs ruling. Judge Rakoff ruled TerraUSD and Luna are securities while criticizing the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

The SEC also alerted Judge Failla of Judge Tana Lin (SEC v Wahi) ruling tokens acquired in an insider dealing case were investment contracts. Judge Lin ruled the tokens were investment contracts even on a secondary exchange.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal had this to say about the Lin ruling in the SEC v Wahi case,

“Default judgments aren’t contested. The whole point is that the defendant didn’t show up from his hideout in India or wherever to contest anything. So, the judge literally has the SEC on one side and no one on the other.”

Grewal added,

“The judge here confirmed in her order that she only considered the SEC’s filings and did not consider any amicus briefs or other papers showing the fallacy of the SEC’s arguments.”

Nonetheless, the ruling created uncertainty about the MTD and its influence on the SEC v Ripple case. Coinbase filed a response to the SEC v Wahi ruling, saying,

“The Wahi order was procured against an empty chair and its reasoning reflects as much. Coinbase respectfully submits that the default judgment against Mr. Ramani should be afforded no weight.”

Notably, the filings may delay a court ruling on the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss and leave XRP in limbo. The SEC may also have time to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling before Judge Failla rules on the Coinbase MTD.

XRP could face intensifying selling pressure if the SEC appeals the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

XRP Price Action

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Finance Magnates CY Limited

However, a weakening labor market backdrop could impact consumer spending trends more. Consumers tighten the purse strings in a deteriorating labor market environment, dampening demand-driven inflation.

The USD/JPY could be more sensitive to the report, with official US inflation numbers out on Tuesday. Significantly, softer inflation trends would boost expectations of an H1 2024 Fed rate cut.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the USD/JPY will hinge on US inflation numbers and wage negotiations in Japan. Softer US inflation and a hike in Japanese pay could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Yen. The Fed is eyeing an H1 2024 rate cut. In contrast, wage hikes could raise bets on the BoJ exiting negative rates in March.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A USD/JPY move through the 148.405 resistance level and 50-day EMA would bring the 150.201 resistance level into play. Selling pressure could intensify at the 148.405 resistance level. The 50-day EMA (148.412) is confluent with the resistance level.

Wage negotiations, BoJ chatter, and US consumer inflation expectations need consideration.

However, a break below the 146.649 support level would give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA (145.465).

The 14-day RSI at 35.08 suggests a USD/JPY drop below the 146.649 support level before entering oversold territory.

China’s review of tariffs
it placed on Australian wine is progressing well, Chinese
Ambassador Xiao Qian told a conference in Sydney.

the background to this is that China slapped Australian products with tariffs in retailation for US moves against China back during the Trump administration. Australia is a key US ally and a very small global player. Australia was thus easy to kick around by Chinese Communist Party thugs.

One of the imposts was punitive tariffs on Australian wines. In recent years relations between Australia and China have warmed somewhat. But tariffs on Australian wines persist.

Last week local Australian media reported that China will remove the wine tariffs at the end of March. China’s review of the imposts is scheduled to report then.

Economists forecast consumer inflation expectations to remain at 3.0% in February.

Softer-than-expected consumer inflation expectations could improve consumer confidence. An improving consumer confidence environment could fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.

However, considering the weaker-than-expected US labor market data, softer inflation may not be enough to drive consumption. Consumers curb spending on non-essential items in a deteriorating labor market environment. Weaker consumer spending trends would support an H1 2024 Fed rate cut.

Short-Term Forecast

Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on US inflation figures and economic data from China. Softer US inflation numbers and upbeat economic indicators from China could drive buyer demand for the AUD/USD. A fiscal stimulus package from Beijing would support an AUD/USD return to the $0.67 handle.

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

An Aussie dollar breakout from the $0.66500 handle would give the bulls a run at the $0.67286 resistance level.

Updates from the NPC, economic data from China, and US consumer inflation expectations need consideration.

However, a fall through the $0.66162 support level would bring the 200-day and 50-day EMAs into view.

A 14-period Daily RSI reading of 61.85 indicates an AUD/USD move to the $0.67286 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Bitcoin bears could capitalize on investors’ skittish disposition to attempt a price downswing in the near-term. 

Bitcoin Price Prediction: More Consolidation before $75,000 Breakout

Based on the current social sentiment dynamics, there appears to be a short-term pessimism among Bitcoin investors. This suggests that a pullback toward $60,000 is more likely than an advance towards $80,000 in the near term. 

Historical accumulation trends that BTC can find significant support above $65,000, especially if the market demand surges when Bitcoin ETFs trading session opens on Monday, March 11. 

IntoTheBlock’ In/Out of the Money chart shows that 441,360 addresses had acquired 345,110 BTC at the average price of $65,290. If this major cluster of holders defend their positions, BTC can avoid a major downswing. 

But if that support level gives way, a detour towards $60,000 could be on the cards.