Created on February 14, 2025

• During the trading session on Thursday, we have seen the British pound rallied quite significantly, but at this point in time it also looks like we are struggling with the same resistance barrier that we have been dealing with for some time.
• I think at this point in time, the market will face a lot of noise between the 1.25 level in the 1.26 level above.

At this point, I think you have a situation where traders will continue to pay close attention to the bond market. It looks like interest rates are pulling back a little bit in the United States to weaken the US dollar for the short term, but over the longer term, it’s very likely that we will see the British pound soften a bit. We could see some exhaustion coming back into the market rather soon. However, it’s also worth noting that we are through most of the fundamental announcements for the week, so I think we’ve got a situation where the next day or 2 could tell us a lot. After all, if there is no fundamental reason for the British pound to suddenly weaken or give up some strength, it tells you how weak that Sterling really is.

On the Other Hand

On the other hand, if we were to continue to go higher and break above the 1.26 level, then we are going to be fighting the 200 Day EMA. The 200 Day EMA is a large technical indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and some people even base the entire trend on this indicator. If we were to break above there, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 1.2750 level after that.

That being said, I don’t necessarily think we are going to break above there but if we did, that would obviously be a very bullish sign. At that point, I would anticipate that the US dollar is in serious trouble against most currencies, not just the British pound. However, when you look at the chart you can see easily that the market is still for the most part in a consolidation zone, so I think it makes a lot of sense that we fade this rally given enough time.

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• The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief pause after a rally in the previous session.

• The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January.

• Market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments.

The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief retreat as traders take profits after an upbeat US inflation report. However, the bullish bias remains intact as market participants price a hawkish Fed and only one rate cut this year. High borrowing costs will keep a wide gap in rates between the US and Japan, hurting the yen.

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The dollar rallied to new peaks against the yen after an upbeat consumer inflation report, reversing the previous downtrend. The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January, well above estimates of a 0.3% increase. At the same time, the annual figure jumped by 3.0%, beating forecasts of 2.9%. The unexpectedly hot numbers pushed market participants to slash bets for Fed rate cuts. After the report, traders were only pricing 28-bps of rate cuts this year, down from 37-bps.

Meanwhile, market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments. The US President has promised to impose duties on all countries that have tariffs on US goods. Such an outcome would rekindle fears of a global trade war and economic uncertainty. Moreover, tariffs will likely keep US inflation high, forcing the Fed to keep rates at elevated levels. 

USD/JPY key events today

• US core PPI m/m
• US PPI m/m
• US unemployment claims

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls pause to retest 154.01 as support

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA and soared past the 154.01 resistance level. At the same time, the RI has jumped and now trades near the overbought region. This shows a strong shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. 

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Previously, the price had shown massive bearish momentum when it collapsed through the 154.01 support and reached the 151.02 level. However, bears could not continue beyond this level. As a result, bulls emerged and made an engulfing candle that signaled a looming reversal. Soon after, the price broke above the SMA, rising to new highs. 

At the moment, the price is retesting the 154.01 level as support. If it holds firm, the price will likely climb to the 156.00 resistance level. However, it might drop further to the 30-SMA before making new highs.

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The GBPJPY pair continued to form strong bullish trades, taking advantage of the frequent stability above 189.70 level that formed key support against the bullish attempts, to notice surpassing the first additional target at 192.30 and approach 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.30 as a next station for the current trades.

Also, stochastic reach to 80 level confirms providing the additional positive momentum to increase the chances of surpassing 193.30 level soon to manage to record additional gains that might start at 193.60 and 194.20 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 191.80 and 193.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair continued to form strong bullish trades, taking advantage of the frequent stability above 189.70 level that formed key support against the bullish attempts, to notice surpassing the first additional target at 192.30 and approach 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.30 as a next station for the current trades.

Also, stochastic reach to 80 level confirms providing the additional positive momentum to increase the chances of surpassing 193.30 level soon to manage to record additional gains that might start at 193.60 and 194.20 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 191.80 and 193.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair continued to form strong bullish trades, taking advantage of the frequent stability above 189.70 level that formed key support against the bullish attempts, to notice surpassing the first additional target at 192.30 and approach 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.30 as a next station for the current trades.

Also, stochastic reach to 80 level confirms providing the additional positive momentum to increase the chances of surpassing 193.30 level soon to manage to record additional gains that might start at 193.60 and 194.20 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 191.80 and 193.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on February 13, 2025

• The British Pound has gone back and forth during the trading session. On Wednesday, as the core CPI numbers out of the United States came in at 0.4% instead of the expected 0.3%.
• Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of choppy and uncertain behavior, because it puts the entirety of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate situation at risk.
• Traders started to think that perhaps the Federal Reserve might loosen monetary policy later this year, but with inflationary numbers being as sticky as they are, it’s very difficult to imagine that happening.

Technical Analysis

Ultimately, when you look at the technical analysis, we are still very much in a downtrend, and the 50-day EMA sits just above and near the 1.25 level. The level of 1.25 has been both support and resistance multiple times in the past, so I don’t think it’s very surprising that it could be an area of interest right now.

If we were to break above 1.26, then you can start to talk about a potential trend change. But right now, I think we’re just stuck in the same pattern that we’ve been in for a while with 1.25, a bump being a bit of a ceiling and 1.2350 level underneath being a bit of a floor. We have a little bit of sideways action, maybe some short-term range-bound opportunities present themselves for those who are a little bit more short-term inclined.

Overall, though, I still think you have a scenario where the US dollar remains fairly stout and rallies at this point in time I just don’t trust. Things can and will change, but keep in mind the Bank of England just cut interest rates and even had a couple of members on the Monetary Policy Committee suggest that they were ready to cut 50 basis points instead of 25.

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At the beginning of 2025, expectations are rising that silver could become one of the most dazzling assets in global markets this year, driven by intertwined economic and geopolitical factors 

Amid the search by retail traders for financial assets to hedge against inflation or capitalize on potential bullish trends, individual investors’ appetite for the white metal is increasing 

At the same time, escalating global trade tensions and growing economic uncertainty are bolstering demand for safe-haven assets, with silver remaining a favored choice alongside gold to protect wealth during volatile times 

On the monetary side, major economies continue to implement a cycle of monetary easing, with central banks persistently cutting interest rates, which makes non-yielding assets such as silver more attractive compared to traditional investments like bonds 

With real yields falling, the investment demand for the white metal is on the rise, potentially driving its prices to new levels throughout the year 

On the industrial front, silver continues to play a vital role in multiple sectors, most notably in technology and renewable energy; the growing demand for solar panels—which rely on silver in their production—along with its widespread use in electronics and medical applications, contributes to a strong and sustainable demand for the metal 

As emerging economies expand and investments in infrastructure and green technology increase, industrial demand is expected to remain a key driver for silver’s market growth, placing it at a crossroads between being an exceptional investment opportunity or merely a temporary bullish surge. Are you ready to seize the opportunity and benefit from these supporting trends? 

Retail Traders 

In their quest for financial assets to hedge against the risks associated with changing monetary policies of global central banks, silver has proven to be the most cost-effective and optimal choice at present, making it the focus of investors’ attention 

The current surge in silver prices has caught the attention of retail traders as the white metal diverges significantly from its true value compared to gold, which continues to set new record highs, nearing the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time in history 

Silver Institute Forecasts 

According to the Silver Institute, the supply shortage in the silver market is expected to continue throughout 2025, which could support price increases to levels not seen since 2011. Moreover, supportive government policies for green energy and infrastructure are anticipated to boost silver demand due to its use in renewable energy technologies 

The institute, an international non-profit organization comprising members from various sectors of the silver industry, explained that stronger industrial activity will be a major catalyst for increased global demand for the white metal, potentially leading to a new high annual level this year 

Global Trade Tensions 

Global trade tensions have escalated with the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the political arena and the adoption of stringent trade policies aimed at protecting the American economy, as he vowed to impose high tariffs on a wide range of imports, particularly from China and Europe 

These measures have prompted strong reactions from major trading partners, who have threatened retaliatory actions, further stoking fears of a new trade war that could impact global economic growth and boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver 

Additionally, silver benefits from concerns over supply chain disruptions, especially with potential restrictions on industrial metals, maintaining its investment appeal amid uncertainty over U.S. trade policies 

Global Monetary Easing Cycle 

Major central banks in the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Mexico continue their cycle of monetary easing and interest rate cuts, resulting in new liquidity injections into the markets and bolstering medium-term investor optimism for stocks, real estate, gold, silver, and even cryptocurrencies 

Strong Industrial Demand for Silver 

Forecasts indicate that industrial demand for silver will remain robust throughout 2025, driven by its increasing use in technology, renewable energy, and electronics. This is especially true as investments in solar energy, which relies on silver for photovoltaic cells, continue to expand 

Moreover, demand from the electronics and medical sectors is expected to further support the sustainable growth of silver’s market, enhancing long-term price prospects 

Key Applications of Silver 

Silver is primarily used for industrial purposes, playing a crucial role in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry, and electronics, in addition to its use in coinage and as a safe haven for investors 

Top Silver Price Forecasts for 2025 

• Citibank Group forecasts silver prices to rise to $35 per ounce this year.
• Goldman Sachs Group forecasts silver prices to reach $37 per ounce by the end of this year.
• Deutsche Bank forecasts that silver could reach $38 per ounce by the end of 2025.
• Morgan Stanley forecasts silver prices to hit $35 per ounce by the end of 2025.
• UBS Bank expects silver prices to range between $36 and $38 per ounce in 2025.
• J.P. Morgan expects silver to reach $38 per ounce in 2025.

Types of Demand for Silver 

Industrial Demand 

• Electronics: Silver is used in electronic components such as printed circuit boards and motherboards in smartphones, computers, and other devices.
• Renewable Energy: Silver is employed in the manufacturing of solar panels and lithium-ion batteries, making it a key element in clean energy technologies.
• Medical Devices: Silver is used in medical instruments due to its antibacterial properties.
• Automotive and Household Products: It helps enhance the performance and efficiency of vehicles and household appliances.

Investment Demand 

• Jewelry: Silver is a precious metal used in the production of jewelry and artistic pieces.
• Coins: Silver is used in minting coins for its value and stability.
• Safe Haven: Silver bars and coins are considered safe havens for investors during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
• ETFs: Exchange-Traded Funds allow investors to buy and sell silver without the need to physically own it.

Factors Affecting Silver Demand Levels 

• Global Economic Growth: Drives increased demand for silver in both industrial and consumer sectors.
• Global Interest Rates: Lower interest rates make silver a more attractive alternative investment.
• Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Boosts demand for silver as a safe-haven asset.
• Technological Developments: Lead to higher requirements for silver in advanced industries.

Key Silver Price Milestones 

• October 2008: Silver hit a low of $8.42 per ounce.
• April 2011: Silver reached an all-time high of $49.76 per ounce.
• May 2020: Silver recorded its lowest level in 12 years at $11.64 per ounce.
• April 2024: Silver reached its highest level in three years at $29.80 per ounce.
• 2010: Achieved the best annual gain with an increase of 83%.
• 2013: Suffered the worst annual loss with a decline of over 36%.

Best Historical Performance of Gold Prices 

• 2007: Best annual performance with an increase of nearly 31%.
• Q1 2016: Best quarterly performance with an increase of over 16%.
• September 1999: Best monthly performance with an increase of approximately 17%.

Top FAQs About Silver 

Is Silver Price Suitable for Investment? 

Silver is currently trading at around $32 per ounce, and given forecasts that indicate a bullish market in 2025, we believe that levels between $31 and $30 per ounce are suitable for investment, with a long-term target above $35 per ounce 

How to Invest in Silver? 

There are several ways to invest in silver:

1. Purchasing physical silver such as coins or bars.
2. Investing through silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on global exchanges.
3. Buying shares in silver mining and refining companies.
4. Trading silver futures, options, and other derivative contracts.

Will Silver Reach $100 per Ounce? 

In light of recent developments in global markets and the economic, trade, and geopolitical risks, it is entirely possible for silver prices to climb above $50 per ounce over the coming years, eventually paving the way to reach $100 for the first time in history if strong industrial and investment demand factors materialize 

Is Silver Expected to Rise in 2025? 

Yes, most major institutions and banks forecast that silver prices will continue to rise this year, with the metal nearing the breakthrough of the $35 per ounce barrier 

Technical Analysis of Silver Prices 

The weekly chart of silver prices shows how the downward correction that began from the all-time high recorded at $49.74 was halted at the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which formed strong support around $15.34. From there, the price began its new upward journey, attempting to resume the long-term bullish trend. 

Current positive attempts are facing a key resistance level formed by the previously broken 38.2% Fibonacci level, now acting as strong resistance at $32.55. Therefore, the price needs to break through this barrier and secure a weekly close above it to confirm the continuation of the upward trend and move toward new gains starting with a target of $35.30 and then the next pivotal resistance at $39.10. 

On the daily timeframe, we notice that the price underwent a minor downward correction before resuming its upward movement. Additionally, the price recently formed and broke through a descending wedge pattern, triggering a positive catalyst that is expected to drive the price further upward and achieve the targets mentioned above. 

The current negative momentum across various timeframes may cause some temporary bearish fluctuations before a return to positive trading, as evidenced by the 1-hour chart. This chart shows the price forming a double top pattern, which triggered a quick downward correction before rebounding. The price needs to hold above $31.75 to avoid further negative pressure and to build a new upward wave with targets first breaking $32.64, then paving the way toward levels of $35.30 and finally $39.10, which are the next major milestones. 

In summary, the aforementioned technical factors suggest that the price is on track to continue rising in the coming period, provided it overcomes certain barriers starting with the $32.55 – $32.64 range, and then moves towards the targets mentioned above. The 50-day moving average continues to offer positive support for the anticipated bullish wave. 

Conversely, it is crucial to note that a reversal below $29.70 would derail the upward momentum, forcing a new downward correction with targets initially testing the $28.40 level and potentially extending losses to $24.50 before any new attempt at a recovery. 

• EUR/USD trades in positive territory, well above 1.0400 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand as risk mood improves.
• The pair could reverse its direction in case Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and rises toward 1.0450 in the European morning on Thursday. The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuels the pair’s leg higher as risk flows dominate the action in financial markets.

In the early trading hours of the American session on Wednesday, EUR/USD declined toward 1.0300 as the USD gathered strength on January inflation data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3%, coming in above the market expectation and December’s increase of 2.9%. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, following the 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month.

Later in the day, the improving risk mood made it difficult for the USD to preserve its strength and opened the door for a decisive rebound in EUR/USD. US President Donald Trump said that he had a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. In the meantime, Trump refrained from announcing reciprocal tariffs.

In the second half of the day, the risk perception could continue to drive the pair’s action amid a lack of high-tier data releases. At the time of press, US stock index futures were rising between 0.2% and 0.5%. 

According to CNBC, Trump could still unveil his reciprocal tariff plan before he meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday. In case Trump does so, the USD could regain its traction and cause EUR/USD to turn south. On the other hand, the pair could build on its daily gains if markets don’t get any new headlines on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 70, suggesting that EUR/USD could correct lower before extending its uptrend. On the upside, 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as immediate resistance. If the pair rises above this level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.0550 (static level) next.

Looking south, the first support level could be spotted at 1.0400 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement) ahead of 1.0355-1.0350 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

Created on February 12, 2025

• Taking a look at the British pound against the Japanese yen the British pound has initially pulled back just a bit only to turn around and show signs of strength.
• At this point in time the market is likely to look at the 190 yen level as a major barrier to overcome and if we can then it would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.
• After all, we formed a couple of inverted hammers, so breaking the top of an inverted hammer obviously captures a lot of attention.

A Potential Melt Higher?

In that environment, I think you have to look at the market through a potential melt up. I don’t have any interest in trying to get too cute here. I think it’s a simple matter of waiting to see if we can break above that 190 yen level on a daily close if we can then I think that’s a very positive sign if we can’t, then it shows that we are going to pull back and go looking at the 188 yen level again. In general, I don’t necessarily like jumping into the market right here, I want to see what the reaction is to this major inflection point.

I think ultimately, you’ve got a scenario where a lot of traders will be looking at this through the idea of whether or not we can continue to go higher or if the exhaustion comes back into the picture, because the interest rate differential does favor the British pound, but it also is a scenario where the Bank of England just cut rates and they look like they’re going to continue to cut rates while the Japanese central bank of course is now starting to worry about fighting inflation. So definitely at this point in time we are at a major inflection point, but you need to watch this 190 yen level for clues.

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