Created on September 25, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Downward bias.
• Today’s Support Levels: 1.1720 – 1.1650 – 1.1580.
• Today’s Resistance Levels: 1.1800 – 1.1870 – 1.1930.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1820 resistance level. Target: 1.1600. Stop-loss: 1.1900.
• Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1640 support level. Target: 1.1810. Stop-loss: 1.1600.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As previously predicted, renewed selling of the Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) may be possible as bulls fail to advance further above the 1.18000 resistance level. This was confirmed by yesterday’s trading, as the Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) price fell from the 1.1820 resistance level, with losses, to the 1.1728 support level, where it stabilized at the beginning of today’s session, Thursday, September 25, 2025. The Forex market is awaiting the announcement of a series of important US economic releases, led by the US GDP growth rate, followed by the weekly unemployment claims number and the durable goods orders figures, all at 3:30 PM Cairo time.

Reasons for the Euro’s Renewed Decline

According to forex currency trading experts, the EUR/USD pair retreated from its four-year high of 1.1920, which it tested following the US rate cut. The euro’s drop resumed after weaker-than-expected German economic indicators negatively affected the value of the single European currency. The German IFO Business Climate Index fell by 1.2 points to 87.7 in September, reaching its lowest level since May and missing market forecasts of 89.3. This decline followed mixed Eurozone PMI results, which showed continued private sector growth in September, driven by a strong services sector, while the manufacturing sector contracted.

Meanwhile, investors followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated his cautious stance on US interest rate cuts amid continued inflationary pressures from tariffs and a weak labor market. Financial market expectations currently indicate a greater than 90% chance of a US interest rate cut by the Fed in October, with investors awaiting the US Personal Expenditures Price Index (PEPI) due out Friday.

German bond yields fell… What happened?

According to trusted trading platforms, German bond yields fell as economic data wavered and the Federal Reserve adopted a cautious outlook, which affected market performance. The yield on German 10-year bonds reached 2.73%, retreating after having risen to a two-week high of 2.762% on Monday. This retreat came as investors assessed new economic data and its implications for European Central Bank policy. The German IFO Business Climate Index’s decline to 87.7, missing expectations, reflected lower business confidence in both current conditions and future expectations.

Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed that Germany’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace since May 2024, while manufacturing contracted more sharply than expected. In the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his cautious stance on interest rate hikes, taking into account persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs and signs of a slowing labor market. Also, geopolitical tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to reclaim all Russian-occupied territory.

Technical Outlook for the Euro Dollar:

Based on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is emerging from the neutral zone amid a bearish bias that will intensify if bears succeed in advancing towards the support levels of 1.1690 and 1.1600, respectively. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently approaching a break above the 50-line, increasing the bearish technical momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are trending downwards, awaiting further selling pressure. A strong EUR/USD bullish scenario on the daily chart should prompt bulls to move towards the resistance levels of 1.1820 and 1.1900, followed by the psychological resistance of 1.2000, respectively.

Trading Tips:

We still recommend selling the euro against the US dollar with every strong upward bounce, but never take risks and be careful. Obvioulsy, the US dollar is awaiting the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading at the end of the week.

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• Pound bulls have encountered resistance above the 200.00 level in their rally against the Yen.
• The JPY remains on its back foot with traders awaiting Tokyo CPI data.
• GBP/JPY is attempting to overcome a reverse trendline at 200.30.

The British Pound is trading higher against the Japanese Yen for the fourth consecutive day. The pair bounced up from the 199.20 area last week and has returned above the 200.00 level; however, a broken trendline resistance in the vicinity of 200.30 is currently holding bulls back for now.

The pound has been drawing support from a broad-based Yen weakness this week. The minutes of the latest BoJ meeting have failed to provide any significant support to the Yen, as investors await Tokyo CPI data, due later today, with the market split about the chances of a rate hike in October.

GBP/JPY 4-Hour Chart

The technical picture is positive. Indicators on t-hour chats show a strong bullish momentum, but the pair would need to return above the bottom of the broken channel, at 200.30, to extend its recovery towards the September 19 high, at 200.50, and the year-to-date high, at 201.27

To the downside, the intra-day low, near 199.90, is likely to challenge a potential bearish reaction. Below here, the 199.20 area, which contained downside attempts on September 18 and 23, will come into focus. Further down, the 78.6% retracement of the September rally meets the September 5 low at 168.65.

encountered resistance above the 200.00 level in

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the gains yesterday, by its stability below the barrier of $1480.00, which forces it to decline temporarily towards $1445.00, to keep its positive stability above the extra support at $1440.00.

The continuation of the price fluctuation above the current support and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, will increase the chances of breaching the previously-mentioned barrier, to confirm its move to a new positive stations, to begin recording extra gains by its rally to $1515.00 and $1543.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1460.00 and $1515.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Powell emphasized that premature cuts could undermine inflation control and potentially force a policy reversal. His comments helped steady the dollar, limiting downside momentum.

Packed U.S. Data Calendar in Focus

Attention now turns to a busy U.S. economic schedule. The final estimate for second-quarter GDP is expected to confirm growth at 3.3%, while the GDP price index is forecast to hold at 2.0%.

Weekly jobless claims are projected at 233K, a slight increase from 231K previously, suggesting labor market resilience. Core durable goods orders are expected to decline 0.1% after last month’s 1.0% gain, while headline orders are forecast to contract 0.3%.

Traders are also monitoring the U.S. goods trade balance, expected at –$95.7 billion, and wholesale inventories, seen rising 0.2%. Later in the day, remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, including Miran, Goolsbee, Schmid, and Williams, may add clarity on the policy outlook.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Mid-Week Forecast: EUR/USD Stalls Below 1.18 Despite 1.20 Targets

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate traded back below 1.18 on Wednesday after weak German confidence data, though banks remain split on the outlook.

Danske Bank favours a tactical dollar rebound, while ING and MUFG still expect EUR/USD to push towards 1.20 into year-end.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Trades Below 1.18

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate advanced to a high of 1.1820 in Asia on Wednesday, but dipped sharply after much weaker than expected German business confidence data and traded around 1.1770.

UoB expects further range trading; “there is no marked change in either downward or upward momentum,” and we reiterated our view that EUR is still trading in a range of 1.1715/1.1855.”

Danske Bank sees scope for a limited near-term dollar recovery; “Looking ahead, we continue to favour a tactical USD rebound. With limited scope for further dovish Fed repricing, the USD remains moderately attractive near term – though this week may prove more about consolidation given the lack of fresh catalysts.”

Danske still expects medium-term EUR/USD gains to above 1.20.

ING commented; “We remain moderately bullish on EUR/USD in the near term, although we doubt it will be smooth sailing to 1.200 from here.”

The German IFO index dipped to 87.7 for September from a revised 88.9 for August and below market expectations of 89.3 with both the current assessment and expectations components weakening on the month.

ING commented; “All in all, today’s Ifo index serves as a painful reminder of how high hopes can quickly evaporate into thin air. The optimism of the first months of the year has swiftly been brought back down to earth.

It added; “This does not automatically mean that hopes for a recovery should be given up entirely – but it does mean that the economy is set for yet another year in stagnation.”

US monetary policy will also be a key component for currency markets.

In comments on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell emphasised a very unusual situation in the labour market with a sharp decline in supply and demand. Powell noted that balancing the risk of high inflation and a stumbling job market was a challenging situation.

Markets are still pricing in close to a 95% chance that rates will be cut again at the October meeting with close to an 80% chance of two cuts by year-end.

Given that markets have priced in these cuts, the dollar could gain some ground if these cuts are in doubt.

MUFG still expects medium-term dollar losses; Assuming the labour market continues to show weakness and there are no nasty upside CPI surprises, there should be a path to two 25bp rate cuts in October and December. That will ensure the scope for further moderate dollar depreciation by year-end remains.

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Holds Lower as Dollar Awaits GDP Jump

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped on Wednesday as risk-averse sentiment gripped markets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3477, down around 0.3% from the session open.

The US Dollar (USD) drew support from safe-haven demand, strengthening against several peers as investors sought stability.

Gains were capped, however, as markets looked ahead to key US data due later in the week.

The Pound (GBP) stayed on the defensive after Tuesday’s underwhelming PMI results.

The services index slowdown reinforced concerns about weaker UK growth, keeping Sterling subdued through mid-week trade.

Investor attention turned to remarks from Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene.

Known as one of the more hawkish voices on the MPC, a repeat of her warnings about slowing disinflation could hint at higher-for-longer rates and help steady Sterling.

GBP/USD Forecasts: US Data to Steer Direction

Looking to Thursday, US durable goods orders and second-quarter GDP figures are likely to set the tone.

Durable goods are forecast to rebound from -2.8% to -0.5%, while GDP is expected to accelerate sharply from -0.5% to 3.3%.

If realised, the releases could give the Dollar fresh momentum.

For the Pound, focus will be on the CBI distributive trades survey. An improvement from -32 to -26 would still signal weak retail activity, but any upside surprise could lend Sterling modest support towards the end of the week.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied nicely against the Japanese yen, and that’s probably not a huge surprise. Every time it falls, it rallies against the yen due to the interest rate differential. That interest rate differential is still a very real thing. And therefore, I think traders will continue to look at dips as potential buying opportunities. If we can break above the 149 yen level, then it opens up the door to the 151 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has risen against the US dollar a little bit in the early hours here on Wednesday, but it must be said that it is giving back some of those gains. I find that interesting because it looks like we’re going to do everything we can to fall back towards the 0.6550 level, an area that I have talked about ad nauseum for several months now as a magnet for price.

It also features 50-day EMA, so I guess that makes some sense as well. If we do rally from here and it actually sticks, unlike the last couple of days, then we could go looking to the 0.67 level, but let us not forget that the Australian dollar was a major underperformer for months against the greenback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Created on September 24, 2025

• The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session here on Tuesday as we are hanging around the 200 Day EMA, but perhaps more importantly, we find ourselves in the middle of an overall consolidation range that has been like a pair of brick walls since the beginning of August.

All that being said, it’s important to recognize that both the 200 Day EMA and the 50 Day EMA indicators are flat, and it suggests that perhaps we are in a situation where the market is going to stay somewhat flat, as we have to make a bigger decision going forward. This makes sense, because both central banks look likely to be relatively soft at the moment, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates just a week ago. The question of course is whether or not risk appetite will come into the picture, because it can have a major influence on this pair.

Risk Appetite

The risk appetite out there is going to be major influence on where this goes, because despite the fact that the US dollar is a major safety currency, and of course we have the Japanese yen which is even “safer” than the US dollar. The ¥146 level below is a major support level, while the ¥149 level above is a major resistance barrier. We find ourselves in a 300 pip range and are basically dead set in the middle of it. In other words, this is a market that I think continues more of the same behavior that we have seen, and that brings up what I have been doing this pair.

I have been buying each and every dip with a reasonably sized position, and collecting swaps for a few days, then closing out the position and waiting for the opportunity again. Obviously, this will go on forever, but once we break out of this 300 point range, we will have more clarity and therefore can put a little bit more money into the market for a longer-term move.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on September 24, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral with an upward bias.
• Today’s Support Levels: 1.1760 – 1.1700 – 1.1650.
• Today’s Resistance Levels: 1.1840 – 1.1900 – 1.1980.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1880 resistance level. Target: 1.1600. Stop-loss: 1.1970.
• Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1680 support level. Target: 1.1810. Stop-loss: 1.1620.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

the EUR/USD pair is trying to hold steady at and above the 1.1800 resistance level, even with recent confirmations about the future path of US interest rate cuts. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged caution on further policy easing. He stated that the outlook for US rate cuts remains uncertain as the Fed faces the challenge of containing inflation while supporting a weakening labor market.

Powell also noted that the inflationary effects of tariffs have so far been minimal, which leaves room for a less restrictive policy if needed. Meanwhile, the new Fed Governor, Stephen Miran—who called for a larger 50-basis point cut at last week’s meeting—warned that policymakers might be underestimating how restrictive policy is and risking jobs without more aggressive action.

Investors are now looking to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for additional guidance.

Will the Euro-Dollar Rise in the Coming Days?

According to the daily chart, the EUR/USD is in a neutral-to-bullish position. Holding above the 1.1800 resistance level will support this outlook. The current state of technical indicators confirms this bias; the 14-day RSI is at 57, moving upward and away from the neutral line, awaiting a catalyst to begin a rally. The MACD indicator’s lines are also steadily moving higher. Over this timeframe, the psychological resistance at 1.2000 will remain an important target for bulls, which could happen if they first successfully push toward the 1.1880 and 1.1920 resistance levels, respectively.

The EUR/USD bearish scenario will strengthen on the daily chart if bears manage to pull the currency pair back to the support levels of 1.1720 and 1.1650. Today, the pair will react to the German IFO index reading at 11:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the US new home sales figures at 5:00 PM Egypt time. The pair will also continue to be influenced by the ongoing statements from Federal Reserve officials throughout the week.

Trading Tips

Dear TradersUp trader, be careful. The EUR/USD’s upward path is at a critical stage. A failure to rally again could lead to a strong sell-off. Therefore, it’s crucial to carefully monitor the factors influencing currency prices and avoid taking risks, no matter how strong the trading opportunities seem.

What Happened Recently in EUR/USD Trading?

According to trusted trading platforms, the euro’s exchange rate fell slightly to around $1.18, as investors analyzed conflicting Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and assessed its potential impact on European Central Bank policy. Based on the economic calendar, the Eurozone’s HCOB Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, in line with the 51.1 forecast, indicating the fastest private sector growth in the Eurozone in 16 months. Growth in the services sector exceeded expectations, while the manufacturing sector contracted, falling short of forecasts.

At the country level, data from France was disappointing, while German data was better than expected. The European Central Bank recently signaled that its interest rate-cutting cycle may be over, citing persistent inflation risks related to tariffs, services costs, food prices, and fiscal policy. The market is now awaiting a series of speeches from both ECB and Fed officials for more clarification.

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– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Regains 1.35 vs USD on Fed Cut Expectations

The British Pound (GBP) moved higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with cable’s exchange rate regaining the 1.3500 level after briefly dipping lower on weak UK data.

Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts kept the dollar on the defensive, while firmer equity markets also lent the Pound support. UK services PMI weakness limited upside, however, with investors cautious over whether higher yields will bolster sterling or reignite fiscal concerns.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Regains 1.3500

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped below 1.3500 after disappointing UK data on Tuesday, but regained losses to trade around 1.3520 after the US open.

Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year were key in underpinning the Pound as the dollar overall had a softer tone in global markets while the Pound drew support from net gains in equities.

A crucial factor will be whether relatively high yields support the Pound or lead to increased fiscal fears.

According to UoB; “GBP may edge higher today, but any rise is likely part of a higher range of 1.3480/1.3545. A sustained break above 1.3545 appears unlikely.”

Scotiabank also expects further near-term consolidation; “We await a break of the multi-month range centred around 1.35 and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3450 and 1.3550.”

Crucial long-term resistance remains near 1.3800.

UK business confidence data was weaker than expected with a significant slowdown in the services-sector index to a 2-month low of 51.9 from 54.2 previously which triggered fresh doubts surrounding the UK growth outlook.

There were, however, relatively hawkish comments from BoE chief economist Pill who defended his call for bond sales to be maintained at the current pace while also noting that inflation had been more stubborn than expected.

The US PMI manufacturing index retreated to a 2-month low of 52.0 for September from 53.0 previously and fractionally below consensus forecasts while the services-sector index also declined marginally to a 3-month low of 53.9 from 54.5.

There was further strong upward pressure on costs with the second-highest increase in services-sector costs for 27 months, but strong competition and weak demand curbed price increases.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented on mixed data; “While growth expectations across both manufacturing and services also continue to be dogged by concerns over the political environment, and especially tariffs, September encouragingly saw business sentiment improve in part due to the anticipated beneficial impact of lower interest rates.”

In this context, Fed rhetoric will continue to be monitored closely. Fed Governor Bowman stated that she was worried that the Fed was behind the curve on labour-market weakness and the central bank may need to adjust faster if risks materialise.

Overall, she expects a further two rate cuts this year.

Scotiabank commented; “Markets have repriced Fed easing risks away from the extremes seen running into last week’s FOMC but continue to reflect the expectation that the Fed still has a lot more easing ahead, with swaps and futures implying the Fed Funds target rate falling to 3.00% over the next 12 months or so.”

It added; “While markets are relatively subdued, DXY price action looks a little soft.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts