The US dollar has been both positive and negative during the trading session against the Japanese yen, with the 158-yen level looking very much like a bit of a barrier. The 50-day EMA sits right there as well, and if we can break above there, then we can truly take off to the upside.

That being said, I suspect we are still within consolidation between 156 yen on the bottom and 158 yen on the top. Interest rate differential continues to pay you to own dollars, that’s basically what I’m looking at here, but I recognize there is a lot of chop, and of course, the Bank of Japan recently got involved.

Despite the weakness of the EURGBP trading, but its stability below the main bearish channel’s resistance at 0.8685 supports the previously suggested negative scenario. The current sideways trading is caused by the contradiction of the main indicators, specifically by stochastic surpass to 50 level as appears in the above image.

We will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum to ease the mission of reaching 0.8610 level and surpassing it will make it begin to target more negative stations by reaching 0.8592 and 0.8565, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative scenario, to begin forming strong bullish waves, to expect reaching 0.8710 and 0.8735. 

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8595 and 0.8675

Trend forecast: Bearish

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped at the start of the week as renewed UK political uncertainty weighed on Sterling sentiment while the safe-haven US Dollar found support from fresh Middle East tensions.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3597, down roughly 0.2% on the day.

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) came under pressure on Monday as renewed political uncertainty unsettled investors following Labour’s weak local election performance.

Current councillor changes show Labour down 202 seats, the Conservatives down 61, while Reform UK added 270 councillors. The Liberal Democrats gained 29 seats and the Greens added 23.

Sterling sentiment was dampened by reports that some Labour MPs are privately urging Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down after the election losses.

Investors were concerned that further political instability could undermine confidence in the UK’s fiscal outlook at a time when markets remain highly sensitive to inflation and borrowing costs.

These concerns were reflected in rising UK bond yields amid speculation that any future leadership change could lead to looser fiscal policy.

Additional pressure on Sterling came after Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene suggested policymakers may need to wait before raising interest rates again, despite previously adopting a more hawkish stance.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened as fading optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace agreement revived safe-haven demand for the ‘Greenback’.

Market sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling the response “totally unacceptable”.

At the same time, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz intensified after Tehran warned of potential clashes in the region, helping support demand for defensive currencies.

GBP/USD Forecast: US Inflation and UK Politics in Focus

Looking ahead, the latest US inflation figures are likely to be the main focus for GBP/USD investors.

If consumer price inflation accelerated again in April, as expected, the data could reinforce expectations for higher US interest rates and provide additional support for the US Dollar.

For Sterling, political developments in Westminster are likely to remain closely watched.

Any further signs of instability surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership or renewed pressure in UK bond markets could continue to weigh on the Pound in the near term.

The GBPJPY pair continued delaying the negative corrective attempts due to the positive momentum that comes from the main indicators, which forces it to form some bullish waves, approaching near 214.50.

The price might continue providing mixed trading, however the stability below the previously mentioned barrier will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective trend, to expect targeting 213.30 level, attempting to reach 211.80, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will support the chances of forming strong bullish waves, to target 215.25 and 216.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.80 and 214.50

Trend forecast: Bearish

BitcoinWorld

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro Remains Vulnerable Below 0.8640 – Critical Support Test

The EUR/GBP price forecast indicates that the euro remains vulnerable below the key psychological level of 0.8640. As of [current date], the pair trades near 0.8615, reflecting persistent selling pressure. This analysis provides an in-depth technical and fundamental outlook for traders and investors.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical Breakdown Below 0.8640

The EUR/GBP price forecast hinges on the critical support zone at 0.8640. A sustained break below this level opens the door for a move toward 0.8580, the next major support. The pair has formed a series of lower highs since mid-January, confirming a bearish trend. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance near 0.8700.

Key technical indicators support the bearish outlook:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Below 40, indicating bearish momentum.
• MACD: Below its signal line, with negative histogram bars.
• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging the lower band, suggesting sustained selling.

Volume analysis shows increased selling on breakdown attempts. This confirms trader conviction in the downside move. A daily close below 0.8640 would validate the EUR/GBP price forecast for further losses.

Fundamental Drivers Behind Euro Vulnerability

Several fundamental factors underpin the euro’s weakness against the pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a dovish stance, while the Bank of England (BoE) signals caution. Interest rate differentials favor the pound.

Key fundamental catalysts include:

• ECB policy: Expected to cut rates in June, weighing on the euro.
• UK economic resilience: Stronger-than-expected GDP data supports the pound.
• Political uncertainty: French elections and German coalition talks add risk premium to the euro.

These factors create a persistent headwind for the euro. The EUR/GBP price forecast reflects this fundamental divergence.

Impact of Interest Rate Differentials

The interest rate gap between the eurozone and the UK currently favors the pound. The BoE holds rates at 5.25%, while the ECB’s deposit rate stands at 4.00%. This 125-basis-point differential attracts capital flows into sterling-denominated assets.

Market pricing for future rate cuts amplifies this divergence. Traders expect the ECB to cut by 75 basis points in 2025. In contrast, the BoE may only deliver 50 basis points of cuts. This expectation keeps the euro under pressure.

EUR/GBP Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

Identifying key EUR/GBP support and resistance levels is crucial for trading decisions. The following table outlines the most important price zones:

A break below 0.8580 would confirm the bearish EUR/GBP price forecast. Conversely, a move above 0.8700 would signal a potential reversal.

Expert Analysis and Market Sentiment

Market analysts remain bearish on the euro. A recent survey of 30 currency strategists shows 70% expect EUR/GBP to trade below 0.8600 in the next month. This consensus reinforces the technical outlook.

Key expert observations include:

• Jane Foley, Rabobank: “The euro lacks catalysts for a sustained recovery.”
• Lee Hardman, MUFG: “GBP strength is a function of relative economic performance.”
• ING analysts: “The 0.8640 level is the line in the sand for euro bulls.”

These expert views align with the technical analysis. The EUR/GBP price forecast remains tilted to the downside.

Timeline and Potential Scenarios

The next two weeks are critical for the pair. Key events that could influence the EUR/GBP price forecast include:

• ECB meeting minutes: Release expected next Thursday, may reinforce dovish bias.
• UK inflation data: Due next Wednesday, could impact BoE rate expectations.
• Eurozone PMI data: Friday’s release will gauge economic health.

Two primary scenarios exist:

Scenario 1 (Bearish): A break below 0.8580 targets 0.8520. This requires continued UK economic outperformance and ECB dovishness.

Scenario 2 (Neutral): Consolidation between 0.8580 and 0.8640. This would occur if data releases are mixed.

The bearish scenario has a 60% probability, according to current market pricing.

Conclusion

The EUR/GBP price forecast clearly shows the euro remains vulnerable below 0.8640. Technical indicators, fundamental drivers, and market sentiment all point to further downside. Traders should watch the 0.8580 support level closely. A break below this level would confirm the bearish outlook and target 0.8520. Conversely, a move above 0.8700 would invalidate the bearish thesis. For now, the path of least resistance is lower.

FAQs

Q1: What is the EUR/GBP price forecast for the next week?
The EUR/GBP price forecast suggests continued vulnerability below 0.8640, with a potential test of 0.8580 support.

Q2: Why is the euro weak against the pound?
The euro is weak due to ECB dovishness, UK economic resilience, and interest rate differentials favoring the pound.

Q3: What are the key support and resistance levels for EUR/GBP?
Key support is at 0.8640 and 0.8580. Resistance is at 0.8700 and 0.8760.

Q4: How does ECB policy affect the EUR/GBP forecast?
ECB policy, including expected rate cuts, weakens the euro and supports the bearish EUR/GBP price forecast.

Q5: What technical indicators confirm the bearish outlook?
The RSI below 40, MACD below signal line, and price hugging the lower Bollinger Band confirm bearish momentum.

This post EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro Remains Vulnerable Below 0.8640 – Critical Support Test first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Pressured by Starmer Leadership Concerns

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved lower at the beginning of the week as concerns over UK political stability weighed on Sterling sentiment.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3597, down around 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to attract support on Monday as speculation surrounding Keir Starmer’s future intensified following Labour’s weak showing in the recent local elections.

Reports suggesting that some Labour MPs are considering whether the Prime Minister should step aside unsettled investors, particularly as markets remain highly sensitive to concerns surrounding the UK’s fiscal outlook.

Traders worry that any leadership contest or change in direction from the government could create additional uncertainty at a time when borrowing costs and inflation pressures are already elevated.

This nervousness filtered into the bond market, with UK gilt yields pushing higher amid fears that a future leadership change could result in looser fiscal policy.

Sterling also faced additional headwinds after comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene suggested the central bank may prefer to hold off on raising interest rates in the near term, despite ongoing inflation concerns.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Monday as rising tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

Investor sentiment turned more cautious after US President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest response to Washington’s proposed peace framework, branding it ‘completely unacceptable’ after Tehran refused to abandon key parts of its nuclear programme.

At the same time, concerns over the stability of the current ceasefire agreement resurfaced after Iranian officials warned of potential clashes if more warships enter the Strait of Hormuz.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Inflation in Focus

Looking ahead, attention for GBP/USD investors will turn to the publication of the latest US inflation figures.

Economists expect Tuesday’s consumer price index to show another increase in inflationary pressures during April, driven in part by elevated energy prices.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy, which may offer further support to the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, Sterling sentiment is likely to remain tied to political developments in Westminster, with the Pound vulnerable to further losses if speculation over Starmer’s leadership continues to build.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Platinum price is forced to provide weak sideways trading, affected by the stability of $2080.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the bullish attempts, to fluctuate near $2035.00, attempting to lean above the moving average 55.

Note that the stability above the main support at $1865.00, the continuation of the attempt of forming extra support at $1950.00 level, these factors make us keep the bullish scenario, to keep waiting for surpassing the mentioned barrier, to begin recording extra gains by its rally towards $2125.00 and $2190.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1975.00 and $2080.00

Trend forecast: Sideways