Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, …

The Euro remains under pressure after sliding to its lowest level this month, with UBS expecting the US Dollar to stay supported through the third quarter as markets adjust to a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) traded near 1.1368 on Wednesday, down more than 2.5% in June after starting the month above 1.1649. The pair has now fallen for three consecutive months from January’s 2026 peak above 1.20.

UBS believes the US Dollar’s reaction to higher oil prices has lagged, but expects that to change as markets increasingly focus on Federal Reserve policy.

“Despite the USD-positive terms-of-trade shock linked to energy prices… the greenback should fare better.”

The bank expects the Dollar to “grind higher” during the third quarter, arguing that a reversal in overseas rate expectations should favour the US currency.

UBS also believes new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication style could support the Dollar by creating greater policy uncertainty.

“Playing for a more volatile rates and FX market in the Warsh era is better value at longer maturities.”

Reflecting its stronger Dollar view, UBS forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 by the end of the third quarter, falling to 1.13 by year-end and 1.12 during the first half of 2027.

The bank believes resilient US growth, continued AI-led investment and relatively high US interest rates should continue supporting the Dollar, leaving the Euro under pressure in the months ahead.

Platinum price has maintained its bearish path after breaking below the support level at $1,605.00, currently fluctuating near the first additional target at $1,565.00.

With continued negative momentum and the formation of the $1,660.00 level as an additional resistance barrier, the price is expected to form new bearish waves, targeting $1,490.00, followed by the next support level at $1,440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,490.00 and $1,630.00.

Trend forecast: Bearish

The Euro has been choppy against the British Pound on Tuesday, as we are sitting just above a massive support region.

EUR/GBP

The Euro has been very noisy against the British pound during the trading session on Tuesday, as we are now facing a pretty significant support level in the form of 0.86.

The 0.86 level has been important for several months now, and the reaction that we had during the trading session suggests that perhaps we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy action, perhaps even a bit of a significant bounce from here.

I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we re-enter the previous consolidation range, opening up the possibility of a move toward the 200-day EMA. With that, I like the idea of buying in this general vicinity, but if we were to break down below the crucial 0.86 level, then you’d have to think that maybe we are in some trouble as far as the Euro is concerned.

Analyzing Potential Support and Economic Outlooks

Over the longer term, I believe this is a market that will do everything it can to try to stay within the range between 0.86 on the bottom and 0.87 on the top. The market is currently arguing over the idea of whether or not the British pound will continue to see overall strength or if we have a scenario where the Euro gets a bit of a reprieve.

Ultimately, this EUR/GBP market remains very noisy, but that is typical for this currency pair. After all, they tend to have a lot of the same economic outlook despite the fact that the Bank of England is quite a bit more hawkish than the ECB at the moment.

The ECB just raised rates, but they made it pretty clear that they thought the economy was sluggish and that the interest rate hike was more or less due to inflation. Range-bound traders will continue to love this pair, and that is its typical behavior anyway, so that doesn’t surprise me in the least. I’m cautiously optimistic.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Platinum price has maintained its bearish path after breaking below the support level at $1,605.00, currently fluctuating near the first additional target at $1,565.00.

With continued negative momentum and the formation of the $1,660.00 level as an additional resistance barrier, the price is expected to form new bearish waves, targeting $1,490.00, followed by the next support level at $1,440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,490.00 and $1,630.00.

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Outlook: US Dollar Strengthens on Higher-for-Longer Rate Expectations

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate remained under pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar continuing to outperform its major counterparts.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3155, down around 0.4% compared with the start of the day’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) continued to strengthen on Wednesday, extending a rally that has seen the currency climb to its strongest levels in several months against a basket of peers.

Momentum behind the ‘Greenback’ has continued to build since last week’s Federal Reserve policy announcement.

Although policymakers opted to leave interest rates unchanged, the accompanying guidance struck a distinctly hawkish tone. Fed officials signalled they remain prepared to tighten monetary policy further should inflationary pressures persist.

As a result, investors have increased their expectations for another rate rise before the end of the summer.

The shift in interest rate expectations has also unsettled equity markets. Technology stocks have come under particular pressure amid renewed concerns that valuations linked to artificial intelligence may have become overstretched, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of the US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to attract support on Wednesday as political uncertainty in the UK continued to linger.

While markets have largely absorbed Keir Starmer’s departure and the expectation that Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister, attention is increasingly turning towards the composition of Burnham’s future government.

Investors are especially focused on who will be appointed Chancellor, with concerns that his pick could reignite volatility in the UK bond market.

At the same time, Sterling traders were reluctant to take aggressive positions ahead of a series of speeches from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers. Diverging views among members of the Monetary Policy Committee continue to cloud the outlook for UK interest rates, limiting confidence in the Pound.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Will US Inflation Data Drive the Next Move?

Looking ahead, the key event for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be the release of the latest US core PCE inflation figures.

As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, a stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for additional policy tightening and provide further support to the US Dollar.

However, any upside in USD could be tempered if revised first-quarter US GDP figures point to a weaker growth backdrop than previously estimated.

For Sterling, political developments are likely to remain the primary focus, with investors continuing to monitor speculation surrounding Burnham’s cabinet appointments and their potential implications for fiscal policy.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The New Zealand dollar has completely fallen apart, and at this point in time, it looks like we are heading towards the 0.56 level. The New Zealand dollar, of course, is going to continue to be weaker than the Aussie dollar as the New Zealand dollar is backed by a much more dovish central bank than Australia. They both tend to move in the same direction, but at this point in time, as long as there is US dollar strength, there will be problems with the kiwi dollar. That being said, the 0.56 level is an area that was a major swing low, so we may be getting pretty close to the end here.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The EURJPY pair announced its surrender to the bearish trend dominance by reaching below the sideways trend’s support at 214.20 level, forming some bearish waves and reaching 183.50 level.

The continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the negative attempts, to expect targeting 182.85 level, reaching the next support at 182.30, while the attempt of regaining the bullish trend requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above 185.50 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.85 and 184.20

Trend forecast: Bearish

The US dollar has been choppy on Tuesday in terms of Japanese yen but has remained bullish looking across the board. I remain bullish on this market.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has been choppy against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

That being said, USD/JPY is a market that I think continues to watch the 160 yen level as a potential floor in the market, and I also recognize that perhaps this is a market that is much more likely to go higher than lower due to the interest rate differential and the fact that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck.

They can intervene; they did it about a month and a half ago, but really, that’s about all they can do, and an intervention won’t change the direction of a market typically; it just slows down the momentum.

Analyzing the Long-Term Trend

Now, with that being said, we are well above the area that they had intervened in previously, and we just broke above a 1986 high in this pair. In other words, this is a big deal.

I think this is a market that ultimately will go much higher, perhaps 200, maybe even 224 yen will be the longer-term target. That doesn’t mean we get there tomorrow, but you get paid to hang on to the market at every session break, and as long as that’s the case, then I’ve got no interest whatsoever in trying to fight this trend.

I’m very patient. I add on dips, very small amounts, and I do think that we have much further to go. If the Bank of Japan, for some reason, were to intervene, that’s good with me; I’m more than willing to buy more at a lower price.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire