Created on October 22, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1810.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1520, target 1.1800, and stop 1.1460.
• Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Investor appetite for the US Dollar as a safe haven has recently increased amid rising US-China tensions. This has led to selling pressure on the EUR/USD pair, extending losses to the 1.1600 support level today, Wednesday, October 22, 2025. With a complete absence of important US economic releases today, investors will continue to monitor for signals regarding the future policies of central banks. Today, ECB Governor Lagarde will deliver new statements at 15:30 Cairo time.

Movement of Technical Indicators Confirms EUR/USD Bias

Based on the daily chart performance and through reliable brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD price bias is currently steadily bearish. Breaking the 1.1600 support level will increase the technical losses for the currency pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around a reading of 43, which confirms the bearish shift, and it still has room for further decline before reaching the oversold zone. Similarly, the MACD indicator is firmly in the downward-sloping area. A break below the 1.1600 support will increase the likelihood of targeting the next, more significant support levels at 1.1550 and 1.1470, respectively.

EUR/USD Bullish Scenario

Conversely, over the same timeframe, there is no strong chance of a corrective rebound for the EUR/USD price without a renewed push towards the psychological resistance of 1.1800. Otherwise, the bears will continue to control prices.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD pair will continue to be heavily influenced by investor risk appetite and the future easing of central bank policies.

Factors Influencing EUR/USD Trading in the Coming Days

Forex trading experts pointed to French concerns, as S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+ after the market close on Friday, due to persistent worries about its fiscal trajectory. On another note, important economic data will be released later in the week, with the release of the PMI Business Confidence Index and the US Consumer Price Report. At the same time, the US banking sector, the government shutdown, and political rhetoric are all expected to be influential market events.

Recently, a sense of relief has prevailed in the US banking sector, with equity markets making gains. Danske Bank noted that the earnings results of major UK banks were strong. It added: “These earnings have helped stabilize investor confidence and provided some support for the sector overall, even as concerns about smaller regional banks persist.” However, ING Bank maintained a cautious outlook, stating, “Indicators suggesting that lending issues do not extend beyond Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance may help ease pressure on the Dollar, but that may not be enough to fully calm concerns about the health of the credit market and reverse all of the Dollar’s losses.”

On the monetary policy front, financial markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut next week, with more than a 95% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates again at the December meeting. The Federal Reserve is currently in a media blackout period ahead of the meeting, with no official comments expected. Consequently, any unofficial media briefings will be closely monitored in case of sharp movements in equity markets.

On another front, trade tensions between the United States and China will remain a key factor. President Trump’s rhetoric was conciliatory over the weekend, raising hopes for a successful push on China.

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Created on October 22, 2025

• The British Pound has fallen during the early hours here on Tuesday against the US dollar again, but really, at this point in time, we seem to be just hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level is an area that I think is important because it is in the middle of the overall consolidation range that we had been in.
• The 50-day EMA sits just above, and that causes some resistance as well, but what I really find interesting is that we sliced through a major uptrend line, fell to the 200-day EMA about a week ago, bounced from there, and then failed at that previous uptrend line in the 50-day EMA also.

With this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market will probably continue to see a lot of resistance above. And therefore, I do prefer shorting this pair if I have a position.

I Use This as an Indicator

Truthfully, my favorite use for this market is to see how the US dollar is performing because if it’s strengthening here, it’s really going to put a beating on something like the euro, typically. With this, I look at the fact that the British pound has been so strong over the last couple of years in comparison to the euro, the yen, the Canadian dollar, and other currencies, and I use this as a secondary and even tertiary indicator with other trades.

If I had to put a position on would be short here, but I think the 200-day EMA will continue to be a bit stubborn. If we were to break down below the 1.32 level, then I think the bottom falls out, and in that environment, you are more likely than not to see the US dollar strengthening against multiple currencies.

If this market breaks above the 1.35 level, then maybe we go back to the 1.36 level, but that still doesn’t have us breaking out of the range. All things being equal, I think we’re drifting lower.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario by forming a new bullish rally yesterday, achieving the initial target by hitting 203.50 level, to settle above $161.8 Fibonacci extension level at 202.50.

The continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the strength of the bullish track, to expect attacking the barrier at 203.95, and surpassing it will open the way for reaching new stations that might begin from 204.60 and 205.25, while changing the trend and begin the bearish corrective track requires forming sharp decline to settle below the extra support at 201.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.60 and 203.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Falls after Softer Inflation Boosts BoE Cut Bets

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped further on Wednesday after softer-than-expected UK inflation data increased bets on a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut before year-end.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3328, down approximately 0.28% from the start of the session.

The Pound (GBP) came under pressure after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that consumer price inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, missing forecasts of a rise to 4.0%.

Core CPI fell sharply from 4.6% to 3.5%, while services inflation stabilised at 4.75%, below expectations of 4.8% and 0.3 percentage points under the BoE’s latest projection.

The weaker data indicates that underlying price pressures are cooling faster than policymakers anticipated, particularly as food prices — a key concern for the BoE — unexpectedly declined on the month.

According to ING, the figures delivered a clear dovish signal for the central bank and increased downside risks for the Pound.

As the bank noted: “The September UK inflation reading released this morning is sending a dovish signal to the Bank of England and weighing on the pound. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% (consensus 4.0%), while core slowed down from 4.6% to 3.5% and services CPI stabilised at 4.75% versus expectations of 4.8% and 0.3pp below the BoE’s latest forecast. Our UK economist notes that the main dovish surprise comes from food prices – a big concern for the BoE of late – which actually fell on the month and are now 0.5pp below the BoE’s August forecasts.”

Markets responded by increasing expectations for a BoE rate cut before the end of 2025, driving gilt yields lower and keeping Sterling under pressure across major currency pairs.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, found modest support during Wednesday’s European session amid cautious market sentiment and lingering global growth concerns.

With the ongoing US government shutdown continuing to delay key data releases, investors turned their attention to upcoming commentary from Federal Reserve officials for policy cues.

Policymakers have broadly maintained a cautious tone, acknowledging softening inflation but insisting that rates must stay restrictive until the 2% target is clearly within reach.

GBP/USD Forecast: Central Bank Commentary to Steer Direction

Looking ahead, movement in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will likely hinge on upcoming speeches from both Bank of England and Federal Reserve policymakers.

If BoE officials hint that cooling inflation is paving the way for policy easing, GBP could remain under pressure into the weekend.

Conversely, any hawkish signals from Fed speakers may lend the ‘Greenback’ further support, keeping GBP/USD subdued through the second half of the week.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario by forming a new bullish rally yesterday, achieving the initial target by hitting 203.50 level, to settle above $161.8 Fibonacci extension level at 202.50.

The continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the strength of the bullish track, to expect attacking the barrier at 203.95, and surpassing it will open the way for reaching new stations that might begin from 204.60 and 205.25, while changing the trend and begin the bearish corrective track requires forming sharp decline to settle below the extra support at 201.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.60 and 203.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on October 21, 2025

• The euro initially rallied against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday but has turned around to show signs of weakness again.
• The ¥176 level seems to be an area that’s a bit of a magnet for price, but the most important thing to pay attention to on the chart is the fact that there is a massive gap underneath current pricing that could come into the picture to offer a bit of support.
• Furthermore, the 50 Day EMA sits at the ¥174.22 level and is rising, so that does give us a little bit of support there as well.

Trend Continuation

We have been in an uptrend for some time, and I do believe that it will continue eventually, and that each pullback does tend to offer a bit of support and, more importantly, value. Ultimately, the Bank of Japan is in a situation where it probably cannot do much, at least not enough to turn the markets around. While we could fall in order to fill the gap, meaning that we could drop all the way back down to the ¥173.25 level, I still think there are plenty of buyers between here and there to at least cushion the fall, and then eventually turn things around. Ultimately, this means that I have no real interest in shorting this market, despite the fact that it does seem like it is struggling a bit in this general vicinity.

With all of that being said, this is a market that I think eventually has to deal with the 170 Ian level, which is an area that has acted like significant resistance. If we can break above that level, it would obviously be very bullish, and it could send this market much higher. In that environment, I see the ¥180 level as being very likely, perhaps even higher than that. Remember, this doesn’t have much to do with the euro and everything to do with the Japanese yen. This pair will move in the same direction and overall attitude as many other JPY-denominated markets.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound is starting to roll over slightly from the 50-day EMA as well. Although bearish, I wouldn’t worry too much about it because we’re basically in the middle of the overall consolidation. So, therefore, we’re essentially at fair value. I do favor the US dollar over the pound. Although the British pound is a little bit of an outlier considering how it performs against the US dollar, even as we were falling during 2024, it was falling less rapidly against the greenback than many other currencies. Conversely, on the way back up, the British pound was one of the best performers. So it’s got a history of fighting the dollar a little bit more. So although it does look weaker than strong, I’m not overly concerned. I think we will stay in this range for the time being.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

And finally, when it comes to triangulation between the euro, the pound, and the dollar, it makes sense that the euro and the pound look pretty much the same. That’s because they’re pretty neutral towards each other. The euro is currently sitting right out of the 50-day EMA against the British pound, right in the middle of a larger consolidation area.

I think this is essentially trying to tell us something important, and that’s where the dollar goes, which will dictate where everything moves in the first two pairs in this analysis. This is about the dollar and not really about the pound and the euro. There is no strength in the euro versus the pound or vice versa. Over the longer term, the euro has risen quite nicely, but going back to the last three months or so, we’ve been pretty sideways between 0.86 and 0.8750. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

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Created on October 21, 2025

• During the Monday trading session, the British pound has been fairly quiet against the US dollar.
• We are in a range at the moment and trying to figure out exactly whether or not the buyers can push the market higher, if we are, in fact, going to start to fall apart.
• As things stand right now, it’s probably worth noting that the 50 Day EMA has offered resistance, but it’s also worth noting that the high price from the Friday session still would qualify as a “lower high” if we were in fact to drop from here.

Questions Remain

I think there are still a lot of questions asked about whether or not this trend can continue, as we had pulled back rather significantly, but we also have the situation where the market had been so bullish previously. The one thing that I do know is that the British pound has been much stronger against the US dollar than most other currencies, so if this pair starts to fall apart, I think that tells you that the US dollar is about to get very strong, and therefore punish not only the British pound, but other weaker currency such as the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and so on.

Alternatively, if this pair rises, then it tells is that the US dollar is probably going to soften a bit, but I actually would prefer to buy the British pound in that environment, because it has outperformed and therefore I don’t feel that there’s any reason to go looking somewhere else to really take advantage of a weaker US dollar. Ultimately, this is a very choppy currency pair, and I think that will continue to be the case in this market, and I think we remain rangebound. In fact, the larger consolidation area, I believe, is between the 1.37 level and the 1.35 level. We are currently right around the middle of that, meaning that we are essentially near “fair value.”

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 21, 2025

The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply against the yen on Monday, rebounding from ¥150 support with a bullish hammer formation. Analysts expect continued upside toward ¥153, supported by yield differentials, while pullbacks remain buying opportunities above ¥147.

• The U.S. dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Monday against the Japanese yen, kicking off perhaps the next leg higher as the ¥150 level has often offered a bit of support, with the Friday candlestick showing itself as a hammer.
• The hammer, of course, is a very bullish sign, and therefore I think you have to look at this as a market that is probably trying to reach towards the ¥153 level.
• If we break down below the hammer from the Friday session, then we start to look at the 50-day EMA, which is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching. And there’s a gap underneath there that is supported by the 200-day EMA.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of upward trajectory, mainly due to the fact that the interest rate differential continues to favor the U.S. dollar. And I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that has been breaking out for a while.

I Collect Swap When I Can

And as you get paid at the end of the day, if you’ve been watching me for several months, all the way back to somewhere in June, I think I have started to tout the strength of the idea of being long in this market, and I have been long in this market for quite some time.

At this point, it’s going to be more of a grind to the upside than anything else, but you get paid to wait, and I think that’s a huge advantage. If we were to break down below the ¥147 level, then okay, things change. But until then, this looks like a market where short-term dips offer the possibility of buying opportunities to take advantage of as market participants continue to shun the Japanese yen for a whole host of economic reasons in that country.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.