The EURJPY pair resumed the bearish corrective attack in Friday’s trading, hitting some of the previously suggested targets, to form quick positive rebound to settle near 176.50, keeping the main bullish scenario that depends on the stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appears in the above image.
Note that the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators that might force the price to provide more of the sideways trading, to keep waiting for breaching 177.05 to confirm its readiness to form new bullish attack by targeting the top at 177.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 175.90 and 177.05
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate spent another week trapped below 1.15 as UK fiscal concerns offset Euro weakness tied to France’s deepening political impasse.
Foreign exchange strategists warn that, with Prime Minister Lecornu reappointed and budget gridlock unresolved, both currencies are likely to face lingering downside pressure.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Groundhog Day for France
SocGen forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will weaken to 1.11 by the third quarter of 2026 on Pound vulnerability.
Credit Agricole, however, is backing gains to 1.2050 by the end of next year as the French situation contributes to Euro losses.
GBP/EUR briefly hit 3-week highs around 1.1550 during the week on Euro concerns before a dip back below 1.15 amid a lack of confidence in underlying UK fundamentals with the Pound unable to benefit from a record high for the FTSE 100 index.
French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned on Monday, but after a week of intense political intrigue, President Macron renominated him on Friday.
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There is no evidence that Lecornu can fare better this time around and faces major difficulties in passing the budget with the on-going risk that deadlock will eventually lead to fresh elections.
SocGen does note the potential for short-term Euro weakness; “The French political situation is clearly another source of concern, with policy paralysis potentially dampening growth expectations. The bond market has to digest supply, and higher French yields create headlines. Even if yield differentials are far below those we saw for peripheral bonds in 2010-2015, this all weighs on the euro.”
Credit Agricole also notes near-term Euro vulnerability; “The economic outlook of the Eurozone’s largest economy has been attracting considerable attention. In all, we think that economic uncertainty and lingering political risks in France could keep the EUR on the defensive in the very near term.”
SocGen expects weak UK growth and that Bank of England will eventually relent; “The stickiness of inflation relative to the euro zone and the US is limiting the room for manoeuvre by the BoE so decreasing the level of policy restriction to boost growth must wait. SG economics postponed the next rate cut from November to February but maintain the terminal forecast of 3.0%.”
JP Morgan noted cracks in the UK economic outlook; “With last week’s UK PMI suggesting political uncertainty is starting to creep back into the UK data, this emphasizes the negative growth-fiscal feedback loop where weaker UK growth worsens the fiscal hole which holds long-end gilt yields higher than they otherwise would be and that triggers the stagflationary reaction function in the currency.”
HSBC expects further fiscal fears; “In the UK, it seems more like mission impossible – particularly for fiscal policy. We estimate the UK Chancellor may need to find around GBP30bn of additional consolidation at the 26 November Budget – a big ‘black hole’ to fill.”
It added; “Tax rises and spending cuts will not go down well with voters and her own party. But a non-credible plan – such as assuming unrealistic tax rises and spending cuts in four or five years’ time – or even a small tweak to the fiscal targets to allow more borrowing, could alarm the bond market.”
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Monday , October 13, 2025: Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
General Trend: Bearish.
Today’s Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
Today’s Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1820.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490, with a target of 1.1730 and a stop loss at 1.1400.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset was renewed following Trump’s threat to impose harsh tariffs on China starting next month, despite the ongoing US government shutdown now in its third week. This increased sell orders on the EUR/USD pair last week, with losses extending to the 1.1542 support level, near the pair’s two-month low, before it closed the week stable around the 1.1622 level. Today, given the American holiday, the EUR/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range with a downward bias, hovering around and below the 1.1600 support level.
The current trading scenario for the EUR/USD is bearish, according to the daily chart performance on reliable trading platforms. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to a reading of 37, well below the neutral line, confirming that bears are back in control of the trend. This important technical indicator is now settling around a reading of 42, awaiting further selling pressure before heading towards oversold territory. Similarly, the MACD indicator lines are positioned downwards. There will be no opportunity for EUR/USD bulls to take control of prices without returning to and stabilizing above the 1.1800 resistance level once again.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp trader, anticipate fresh selling pressure on the currency pair. Therefore, we advise against rushing to buy now and to consider doing so from stronger downward levels, but never take undue risks. Today, we may witness limited movements due to the American holiday.
EUR/USD Forecast for the Coming Months
In this regard, according to currency trading experts at Danske Bank, the euro has been subjected to renewed selling pressure amid the ongoing French political crisis, with the EUR/USD exchange rate falling to around 1.1600. In the near term, Danske Bank sees a relatively balanced outlook for the US dollar. The bank sees a potential for a weaker US dollar if the US government shutdown continues and maintains its negative long-term outlook for the dollar, with the EUR/USD pair set to rise to 1.23 in 12 months. Danske Bank notes a high degree of uncertainty in the labor market, with evidence of a sharp decline in both supply and demand.
Generally, if the main factor is supply, there would be less justification for the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates, as unemployment would not rise significantly. However, the bank has provided its interest rate forecast and now expects cuts in October and January, followed by further cuts in April and July. Morever, the bank anticipates that the shift in interest rate differentials will weaken the dollar in the medium term.
Meanwhile, the bank also expects structural factors to continue undermining the US currency as institutional demand for US assets declines.
From a broader perspective, the bank notes that the dollar’s share of global transactions has declined. Morever, it does not see its reserve status as threatened, particularly given the lack of attractive alternatives, which limits the potential for US dollar losses.
EUR/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 176.50 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern.
The short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting that bullish bias is strengthening.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may find its initial resistance at the record high of 177.94, which was recorded on October 9. A break above this level would prompt the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around the psychological level of 179.00.
The immediate support lies at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around the psychological level of 176.00, followed by the nine-day EMA of 175.79. A break below this crucial support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at 173.50, followed by the six-week low of 172.14, which was recorded on September 9.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.27%
0.19%
0.24%
0.06%
-0.16%
0.25%
0.33%
EUR
-0.27%
-0.08%
0.02%
-0.23%
-0.34%
-0.04%
0.05%
GBP
-0.19%
0.08%
0.14%
-0.15%
-0.27%
0.05%
0.10%
JPY
-0.24%
-0.02%
-0.14%
-0.25%
-0.46%
0.03%
0.03%
CAD
-0.06%
0.23%
0.15%
0.25%
-0.25%
0.21%
0.25%
AUD
0.16%
0.34%
0.27%
0.46%
0.25%
0.33%
0.38%
NZD
-0.25%
0.04%
-0.05%
-0.03%
-0.21%
-0.33%
0.05%
CHF
-0.33%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.03%
-0.25%
-0.38%
-0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The British Pound has gone back and forth during trading here on Friday as we are testing the 200-day EMA. This is a market that I think you will have to continue to look at through the prism of negative, but bouncing from the 200-day EMA is not exactly a huge surprise, I think we could see a little bit of technical uh momentum come back into the market.
I don’t know if it sticks, but I do think you’ve got a situation where traders are going to at least acknowledge this indicator. A rally at this point in time probably opens up a move to the 1.34 level at best, and then we probably roll over there.
On a Move Higher
Now, if we can break above there, the 50-day EMA would be your next target, followed by 1.36. If we turn around and break below the 200-day EMA, then the 1.32 level gets targeted next. Anything below there, then I think you have serious problems with the pound. But more importantly, the US dollar will probably strengthen against almost everything. Remember, the British pound has been one of the better performers even when it was falling against the US dollar, it was falling at a slower pace than many of its contemporary. So, when you look at this chart, you can see that we are in a range that had been important back in early 2022. And the question now is, do we need to pull back in order to find value? I think that’s likely. But I at this point in time still think we will go lower, just based on the way we’ve acted since the FOMC press conference. Remember the dollar was going to be eviscerated and we’ve seen a gain in the dollar of about 450 pips in this pair.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The US dollar broke down significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Friday, as the ¥153 level has offered a significant amount of resistance, and perhaps gravity came back into the picture. That being said, we also have a little bit of an exacerbation of trade tensions between the United States and the Chinese, and therefore a little bit of a “risk off move” made sense.
In other words, people started running to the safety of the Japanese yen, but I also would argue that the market was overdone to begin with, and we were heading into the weekend.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is obviously very bullish, as we gapped to the upside and break the ¥149 level, only to turn around, pulled back to show signs of support, only to turn around and show signs of strength as we just took off to the upside. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think at this point in time, we pull back it’s going to end up being a buying opportunity once everything settles down. I’ve been saying all week how we need to find some type of reason to start buying again, and the easiest way to get that reason is to see a lower price.
The ¥149 level underneath could be important again, and I’d be very interested in seeing this pair pull back to that level so that we can start buying. The size of the candlestick is rather large and had wiped out the previous 2 trading sessions. Ultimately, this is a market that I am looking for an opportunity to start buying, but at this point in time the lesson you wanted to do was to “chase the trade.” By doing that, it opens up the possibility of taking massive losses, and I have been saying for days that a huge stop loss would be necessary if you try to get involved. We got a little bit more in the way of value, but not enough to start putting money to work quite yet.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The Euro tried to rally a little bit during the trading session here on Friday, but it looks like the 1.16 level is in fact going to continue to offer a bit of resistance. At this point in time, if it does, the Euro probably drops down to the 1.15 level. And then after that, the 1.14 level, which of course has an area that I think a lot of people will be watching as it’s been important previously, and it was where the market tested an uptrend line. Furthermore, the 1.14 level is also an area that the 200 day EMA is racing towards. With this being said, any rally at this point in time, I look at with suspicion until we can break above the 50 day EMA, and that of course being broken to the upside then could reassert the potential of the upside. But I think at this point, it really looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. And it’s worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening against most currencies.
US Dollar
This isn’t just a Euro situation. This is a US dollar situation. This market got the FOMC press conference on September 17, and we’ve done nothing but fall with the occasional short term bounce since then. Remember, we were told that the US dollar was over and that it was going to fall apart. And now once we got that crescendo somewhere in this area, I started to think maybe we’re getting closer to the top because everybody thinks that the US dollar is history. I’m starting to hear reports from people who don’t even trade in currencies about how the US dollar is falling. Once you get to that point, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve made money just going in the other direction. I have been short of this pair for quite some time. And if we can really break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the Thursday session, then I think we will accelerate. I have no interest in buying this pair.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Pound’s reversal against the Yen found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, right below the 202.00 line, and is trading higher again on Monday. The pair has regained the 203.00 level and is approaching the 203.50 area, where it might find significant resistance.
The Japanese Yen is under pressure on Monday after the Komeito Party announced it will leave the governing coalition due to divergences with the new LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi, deepening the country’s political uncertainty.
Technical analysis: GBP/JPY needs to break 203.50 to confirm a trend shift
The technical picture shows easing bearish pressure. The 4-Hour RSD has popped up above the key 50 level, and the MACD in the same timeframe is turning higher.
Bulls, however, will need to breach the resistance area around 203.50, where the trendline resistance from last week’s highs meets the October 10 high, to confirm the trend shift. Further up, the intraday resistance, at 204.55, and the October 8 high, at 205.20, will come into focus.
On the downside, immediate support is at Friday’s low of 201.85. Below there, bears would be enticed to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, at 201.35, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which meets October 5 lows at the 200.30 area.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.16%
0.12%
0.23%
0.08%
-0.17%
0.17%
0.19%
EUR
-0.16%
-0.04%
0.11%
-0.09%
-0.25%
0.00%
0.01%
GBP
-0.12%
0.04%
0.18%
-0.04%
-0.22%
0.05%
0.03%
JPY
-0.23%
-0.11%
-0.18%
-0.20%
-0.45%
-0.02%
-0.09%
CAD
-0.08%
0.09%
0.04%
0.20%
-0.29%
0.10%
0.08%
AUD
0.17%
0.25%
0.22%
0.45%
0.29%
0.27%
0.25%
NZD
-0.17%
-0.01%
-0.05%
0.02%
-0.10%
-0.27%
-0.02%
CHF
-0.19%
-0.01%
-0.03%
0.09%
-0.08%
-0.25%
0.02%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The EURJPY pair resumed the bearish corrective attack in Friday’s trading, hitting some of the previously suggested targets, to form quick positive rebound to settle near 176.50, keeping the main bullish scenario that depends on the stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appears in the above image.
Note that the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators that might force the price to provide more of the sideways trading, to keep waiting for breaching 177.05 to confirm its readiness to form new bullish attack by targeting the top at 177.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 175.90 and 177.05
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slumped to two-month lows near 1.3280 on Thursday as fragile UK fundamentals and firm dollar demand combined to drive renewed selling pressure. The pair traded close to 1.3300 on Friday in subdued European trade.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Sterling Remains “Unloved”
Sterling sentiment remains fragile heading into the Autumn Budget.
Swissquote Bank’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya noted; “Sterling remains very much unloved heading into the Autumn Budget.”
UoB warned of deeper losses ahead; “This time around, the price action has resulted in a marked increase in downward momentum, and the next technical target is at 1.3200. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level is now at 1.3410 instead of 1.3465.”
Critical support remains near 1.3140.
UK data continued to highlight subdued demand.
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According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail footfall fell 1.8% in the year to September following a 0.4% decline in August.
BRC CEO Helen Dickinson said; “Customers put the brakes on non-essential spending… fashion and full-price big-ticket items were held back by lower consumer confidence.”
The latest KPMG and REC jobs survey reported the slowest wage growth in more than four years.
REC’s Neil Carberry commented; “Pay trends remain subdued where pay is set by the market rather than the Government. This suggests that pay growth should not be a drag on the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision.”
The combination of looming tax hikes, weak consumption and slowing pay growth could prompt the Bank of England to cut rates more quickly — a scenario that would likely weigh further on Sterling.
ING observed; “It’s becoming increasingly clear that this week’s dollar rally – which was initially spurred by events in Japan and France – is turning into a broader rethink of the consensus short-dollar trade.”
It added; “The dollar can consolidate some gains today, but remains at risk of corrections in our view.”
Markets still price a 95% chance of an October rate cut and around an 80% likelihood of two cuts by the end of 2025.
However, the continuing US government shutdown has disrupted data releases, raising the risk that the Federal Reserve could make a policy error and unsettle markets.
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