EUR/USD gained ground despite the disappointing Industrial Production report from Germany. The report showed that Industrial Production decreased by -0.7% month-over-month in March, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%.
Germany’s Exports increased by +0.5% month-over-month in March, while analysts expected that they would decline by -1.7%. The better-than-expected Exports report from Germany provided additional support to the European currency.
A successful test of the resistance at 1.1765 – 1.1780 will push EUR/USD towards the resistance level at 1.1850 – 1.1865. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As Traders React To UK Elections Results
2026.05.08 2026.05.08 EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 08.05.26–15.05.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1676 with a target of 1.2088–1.2400. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.1676. Stop Loss: below 1.1635, Take Profit: 1.2088–1.2400.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.1676 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 1.1400–1.1185. A sell signal: the level of 1.1676 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.1715, Take Profit: 1.1400–1.1185.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1676 with a target of 1.2088–1.2400.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 1.1676 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1400–1.1185.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree B is developing, with wave (A) of B forming as its part. On the daily time frame, the third wave 3 of (A) is apparently unfolding. Within it, wave i of 3 has formed, corrective wave ii of 3 has been completed, and wave iii of 3 has started developing. On the H4 time frame, the first wave of smaller degree (i) of iii continues to unfold. Within it, a local correction iv of (i) has been completed and wave v of (i) is developing. If the presumption is correct, EUR/USD will continue to rise to 1.2088–1.2400. The level of 1.1676 is critical in this scenario. A breakout below it will allow the pair to continue falling to the levels of 1.1400–1.1185.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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The 1.1850 level is an area that, over time, I think will continue to be of interest. I think if we get anywhere near it, there should be sellers willing to come in. The question is, can we break above there, because if we can, then the 1.1950 level gets targeted, followed by the 1.20 level. Short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities, but if we break down below the 1.17 level, we’ll see that there is the 50-day EMA.
The US dollar bounced from the crucial 156-yen level during trading on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise in the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Recently we’ve seen the Bank of Japan come out and intervene, although they don’t openly admit it, and as a result there has been some weakness.
Furthermore, we had interest rates drop in the United States and that brought in some weakness as well as the interest rate differential shrank a bit.
That being said, there are rumblings coming out of Iran and out of Washington DC that they are still not necessarily agreeing on the facts or reality. While there were hopes of peace breaking out, and there still could be in theory, the Iranians and the Americans seem to not agree on whether or not uranium is coming out of that country. That is a huge deal and ostensibly is the whole reason the Americans had attacked Iran.
Geopolitical Rumblings and Economic Data
As long as we continue to see these games being played through the media and Twitter and social media, it is going to be a very noisy world to trade in. That being said, you do get paid to hold the US dollar against the Japanese yen and I think that is going to be the main driver here.
Friday has the non-farm payroll announcement coming out and that is a market that really can move this pair. If the number coming out of the United States is hotter than anticipated, that could cause a bit of trouble for the Japanese yen because it will push the idea that the Federal Reserve will have to stay tighter for longer. In other words, the interest rate differential will remain quite large.
The expected number of jobs added in the previous month is 65,000 and if we blow the doors off of that like we did last month, I would anticipate that we probably see a bit of a jump in this pair. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will try to make its way back to the 158 yen level, it’s just going to be a grind more than anything else.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The Euro has been a little bit positive in the early part of the trading session here on Thursday, but we continue to see a little bit of hesitation between the 1.18 level and the 1.1850 level.
There are a lot of things going on, not the least of which will be the war of course in the Middle East, but the market has seen quite a bit of volatility based on positive news flow coming out of the Middle East and then eventually negative.
It’s also worth noting that the non-farm payroll announcement comes out on Friday, so you have to be a little cautious with this, recognizing that we have a situation where there will be a lot of volatility during the session on Thursday going into Friday and as a result, caution is the better part of valor.
The Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy
I do think that there is going to be a very immense amount of pressure above that could cause quite a few headaches for traders who are trying to get long. 1.1850 being broken to the upside would obviously be a very bullish turn of events; it could show the EUR/USD market as ready to break higher, perhaps the 1.20 level and beyond.
That being said, what you need is a reason for the Federal Reserve to look like they are not going to stay tighter for longer. In this environment, there is a lot of positivity out there based on some comments coming out of Tehran and Washington DC, but the jobs market, if it’s still really hot, that could kill some of that US dollar weakness as it will make the Federal Reserve have to sit on its hands even longer.
If we do fall from here, I expect the 50-day EMA near the 1.1685 level to offer support. I think we’re just stuck in this compression pattern at the moment.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The GBPJPY pair settles in sideways range near 212.80 level, affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, to delay activating the previously suggested negative trend.
The price might recover more of the losses by its rally towards 213.50, reaching the moving average 55 near 213.85, but it will not affect the main bearish scenario, depending on the continuation of forming main barrier at 214.30 level against the current trading, note that breaking 211.80 level will ease the mission of forming strong waves, to expect reaching 211.20, repeating the pressure on 210.45 support.
The expected trading range for today is between 211.80 and 213.50
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Thursday, as improving risk appetite helped lift the pairing.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3622, up roughly 0.2% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) weakened on Thursday as a firmer risk tone reduced demand for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.
Markets were buoyed by hopes of a possible US-Iran peace agreement, after US President Donald Trump suggested a deal to end the conflict was ‘very possible’ following negotiations over the previous 24 hours.
The prospect of easing tensions in the Middle East lifted global equities and encouraged investors away from safer assets.
This left the US Dollar under pressure through Thursday’s trade, with risk-sensitive currencies advancing as the ‘Greenback’ faced broad-based selling.
The Pound (GBP) strengthened against the US Dollar on Thursday, as its increasingly risk-sensitive nature left it well placed to benefit from the brighter market mood.
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However, Sterling’s gains were limited by caution ahead of the UK local election results.
Labour is widely expected to suffer setbacks, with investors watching closely to see the scale of the losses. A sharper-than-forecast defeat could intensify pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, especially after some Labour MPs have already called for him to resign.
As a result, the Pound’s upside was capped, with improved risk appetite partly offset by fears that the elections could trigger renewed political uncertainty in the UK.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Pound to Face Election Fallout as US Dollar Awaits NFP Data?
Looking ahead, the UK local election results are likely to take centre stage for Pound investors on Friday.
Sterling may find support if Labour’s losses prove relatively contained, as this could calm concerns over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.
However, a heavier defeat could revive speculation over a possible leadership challenge. If the results heighten fears of political instability in the UK, rising bond yields may add further pressure to the Pound.
At the same time, USD investors will be focused on the latest non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect US jobs growth to have slowed in April, which could strengthen bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year and drag on the ‘Greenback’.
Risk sentiment may also remain a key driver for the US Dollar. Should the market mood stay upbeat, the safe-haven ‘Greenback’ could struggle to regain ground.
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USD/JPY is moving higher as traders shrug off intervention risks and focus on higher yields in the U.S. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed back towards the 3.90% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.37%.
If USD/JPY settles above the 156.00 level, it will head towards the key resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. Yesterday, BoJ defended the 158.00 level and briefly pushed USD/JPY towards 155.00.
However, the yen is fundamentally weak, and traders are ready to use pullbacks as an opportunity to buy USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan cannot intervene on a daily basis as the yen would lose the status of a free-floating currency. USD/JPY bulls bet that BoJ will be forced to move away from the forex market after several unsuccessful attempts to defend the yen.
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The US dollar has pulled back slightly against the Canadian dollar, but it still looks like it is in a basing pattern, and it is trying to find a reason to go higher. If we do drop from here, the 1.36 level might be short-term support, and the 1.3550 level most certainly is; it has proven itself multiple times. Pay attention to those US rates. If they turn around, that probably continues the bounce here.
