Created on November 06, 2025

• The U.S. dollar rebounded from support near ¥153 on Wednesday, holding firm amid persistent yen weakness.
• With resistance at ¥154.50 and potential toward ¥155, I remain bullish, favoring dips as buying opportunities given Japan’s dovish stance.

The U.S. dollar initially fell against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday to test the crucial ¥153 level. That being said, the market has found that area as important, which is not a huge surprise considering that it was the previous resistance barrier. Therefore, we would have to think there’s a certain amount of market memory in this region.

By dropping initially only to turn around and show signs of strength, we are now threatening the ¥154.50 level, an area that’s been like a brick wall over the last week or so. If we can clear that area, then the ¥155 level suddenly comes into the picture. Anything above that, and we really start to take off to the upside. Don’t forget that the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan continues to be very wide, and therefore, you get paid quite nicely at the end of every day to hold this pair. The Japanese yen has been selling off not only against the U.S. dollar but almost every other currency that I follow as well.

BoJ is Stuck

Simply put, the Bank of Japan continues to show a lot of hesitation, and therefore, I think the market anticipates that they won’t be able to do anything anytime soon. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of choppy volatility, but short-term pullbacks open up the possibility of finding a little bit of value, just as we had seen during the beginning of the Wednesday session.

If we were to break down below the ¥153 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the ¥151.50 level. That is an area where you would start to think about intersecting with the 50-day EMA, which, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people watch closely. Ultimately, this is a market that I’ve been bullish on for several months, and I think that is going to continue to be the way forward. I have no interest in buying the yen in this environment.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 06, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1400 – 1.1320
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1370.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As observed in recent performance, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a clearly defined descending trend line, respecting the downward resistance level that has capped price rises since mid-September. The Euro/Dollar recently rebounded from the support level at 1.1464, and it appears to be correcting toward the upper resistance zone.

A potential pullback from current levels could lead the EUR/USD pair back to the broken support-turned-resistance area, which now coincides with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

• The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is located at 1.1550.
• The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is located at 1.1576.
• A more substantial correction could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1602, which aligns with the descending trend line and previous consolidation zones.

This confluence of technical factors makes the key psychological level of 1.1600 a critical resistance area that could serve as a dividing line for the downward trend. If any of the Fibonacci resistance levels hold as a ceiling, the EUR/USD pair may resume its decline towards the swing low at 1.14648 or lower, most likely targeting the psychological level of 1.1400.

The 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), confirming that the strongest path remains bearish. Both moving averages converge with the Fibonacci levels and the broken support, forming a strong ceiling that may hinder any recovery attempts. The price is currently trading below both indicators, reinforcing the bearish structure.

Recently, on reputable trading platforms, the Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from oversold territory and is now hovering in the middle range, suggesting there is still room for the corrective bounce to extend. However, once the oscillator reaches overbought territory, selling pressure could intensify. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also trending upwards from its lower range and has room to rise before reaching overbought levels near 70. Clearly, this suggests that buyers may maintain their short-term momentum during the pullback

Trading Advice:

We advise you to anticipate more downward movement for the Euro/Dollar until factors emerge that increase investor confidence in the end of the US government shutdown, at the very least.

Factors Affecting Currency Prices

Please note that the EUR/USD pair may continue to be influenced by US economic data, despite the limited releases due to the ongoing government shutdown. Indications suggesting a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December could mean further dollar depreciation, while positive results could trigger risk aversion and a dollar rally.

Today’s agenda includes the announcement of the German Industrial Production rate at 9:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the announcement of Eurozone Retail Sales figures at 12:00 PM Egypt time. On the US side, the market will react to statements from several Federal Reserve policy officials.

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– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK British Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Clings to 1.30 as Traders Eye BoE

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held just above 1.3000 on Wednesday, trading around 1.3020, as stronger-than-expected US data and lingering doubts over another Fed rate cut kept the dollar firm ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Battling to Hold 1.30 Support into BoE Call

The Pound found support just above 1.3000 against the US Dollar on Wednesday and traded around 1.3020 after the latest US data came in slightly stronger than expected.

Sterling markets were subdued ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision.

The dollar maintained a firm tone amid further doubts whether another Fed rate cut in December was realistic.

Equity markets were fragile, but losses were limited and the FTSE 100 index was in positive territory which limited the scope for further Pound selling.

UoB commented; “Today, there is a chance for GBP to break below 1.3000, but given the deeply oversold conditions, any further decline is unlikely to reach the next support at 1.2960. Resistance is at 1.3045; a breach of 1.3070 would indicate that GBP is unlikely to weaken further.”

Scotiabank also noted potential support near 1.30; “Additional support maybe found just below the level, given March/April congestion in the mid1.28s/1.30 area. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.30 and 1.31.”

ING takes a similar view; “GBP/USD has some decent support at 1.2950/3000.”

The US economy will remain a key near-term focus with markets also watching the US government shutdown amid some speculation that a deal to re-open was close.

US ADP data recorded an increase in private payrolls of 42,000 for October compared with consensus forecasts of around 32,000 and followed the revised 29,000 decline for September.

ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented; “Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year.” Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”

Elsewhere, the ISM non-manufacturing index strengthened to 52.4 for October from 50.0 previously with a faster rate of price increases.

UK fundamentals will also be crucial with the BoE policy decision on Thursday while fiscal policy remains a key underlying element for the Pound.

According to Scotiabank; “Focus remains squarely centered on the UK’s fiscal situation and the likelihood of even greater fiscal shortfalls.”

MUFG noted some possible upside; “If the fiscal hole is smaller than expected, it is certainly feasible that the budget could then raise enough revenues to build a larger fiscal headroom while also avoiding a breach of the key election manifesto promises. It might therefore be that the negativity related to the budget pushing Gilt yields and the pound lower could become overdone.”

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The EURJPY pair faced 175.70 level in its last corrective decline, which formed extra support, to reduce the negative effect by its stability, by the above image, we notice its rally above 177.05 barrier.

The price needs a new bullish momentum to allow it to provide a new positive close above 177.05 level, to reinforce the efficiency of the bullish track by its rally towards 177.95 and 178.75.

The expected trading range for today is between 176.65 and 177.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on November 05, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1460 – 1.1400 – 1.1360
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1550 – 1.1630 – 1.1700

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1430 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1370.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1660 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1740.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

According to recent currency market trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate has failed to gain any momentum in global markets, falling to its lowest level in three months below the psychological support level of 1.1500. Losses extended to the support level of 1.1477, confirming our technical expectations of increased downward momentum for the EUR/USD once it stabilized below the 1.1600 support level, which has indeed occurred. Technically, further weakness in the euro is not ruled out. A positive divergence is forming in momentum indicators, and it is unlikely that any further decline will push technical indicators towards oversold levels. It’s worth noting that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 33, close to the oversold line, while the MACD lines are steadily trending downwards, supporting the bears’ current control of the trend.

Based on the daily chart, the EUR/USD bullish scenario remains contingent on a return to the 1.1800 resistance level. Today, Wednesday, the EUR/USD will be influenced by the release of the Eurozone Services PMI, starting with the Spanish version at 10:15 AM Egypt time, followed by the Eurozone overall PMI at 11:00 AM Egypt time, and then, an hour later, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI). On the US side, the focus will be on the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 5:00 PM Egypt time.

US Jobs Data Under Scrutiny

Forex traders believe that the 1.1500 support level will remain the bottom of the EUR/USD range, but this will require some weaker US jobs data to provide some breathing room. Experts also pointed to developments in the financial markets as a significant factor influencing the strength of the US dollar. The US Treasury is rebuilding its cash reserves, putting upward pressure on interest rates.

Tight money markets typically keep the dollar supported, and we will be watching to see if this difficulty in obtaining dollar funding spreads internationally. This would be very negative for the EUR/USD pair if it were to occur, but there are no indications of this yet.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD downtrend will continue for some time, and a true upward reversal will not occur without a return of investor confidence and the end of the US government shutdown.

Financial markets remain less confident that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates again at the December meeting, with traders estimating the probability of an additional cut at slightly less than 70%. The US government shutdown will also become increasingly significant for markets as its economic impact continues to worsen. The Federal Reserve will be concerned about the negative impact on the US economy but will also be aware of the high degree of uncertainty.

According to experts, the longer the US government shutdown lasts, the greater the negative impact on the US economy in the short term. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would be more inclined to keep interest rates unchanged in December if the lack of clarity regarding the performance of the US economy persists. Overall, significant underlying concerns remain surrounding potential changes at the Federal Reserve, particularly with a new chairman taking office next year.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Bisset criticized the US Central Bank, stating that its track record in predicting inflation was very poor. He added, “We will find a leader who will implement radical reforms across the entire institution in terms of procedures and internal operations.”

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– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Calm before the BoE Storm

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, as markets digested mixed signals from the latest US employment data and looked ahead to the Bank of England’s policy announcement.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3069, almost unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) lacked a clear trajectory on Wednesday, despite a mildly upbeat ADP employment print.

The report indicated that 42,000 new private sector roles were created in October, swinging back from September’s 29,000 decline and surpassing forecasts of 25,000.

While the figures signalled a partial recovery in hiring, economists noted that gains were uneven across sectors, underscoring lingering weakness in the US labour market.

As a result, investors were quick to revive expectations that the Federal Reserve could favour another rate cut in December, keeping USD upside firmly in check.

The Pound (GBP) gained some light support in early trade following a stronger-than-initially-reported UK services PMI.

October’s final reading was upgraded from 51.1 to 52.3, reflecting improving domestic demand within the UK’s dominant services industry.

Even so, optimism remained tempered as businesses highlighted lingering caution ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, which continues to cast uncertainty over the outlook for growth.

Nevertheless, Sterling’s advance was limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate announcement on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE Guidance to Steer Sterling Direction

Looking ahead, the BoE’s policy announcement on Thursday is expected to set the tone for GBP/USD movement through the remainder of the week.

While a rate cut this month cannot be ruled out, most analysts expect the central bank to keep borrowing costs unchanged. Instead, attention will turn to the BoE’s forward guidance, with investors seeking clues on whether policymakers may opt for one final cut before year-end.

Any hint of a dovish outlook could weigh on Sterling, while a more cautious tone may help the Pound regain some lost ground.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar could find near-term support if risk appetite deteriorates, with mounting fears of a correction in equity markets potentially driving investors to favour the safe-haven currency.

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Created on November 05, 2025

• The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday, testing support near ¥153 after an early rally faded.
• Despite short-term softness, the broader uptrend remains intact as rate differentials continue to favor the dollar.

You can see that the U.S. dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, but it is struggling. We did fall enough to go looking to the ¥153 level. The ¥153 level is an area that had been a significant resistance barrier and now could end up being a significant support level based on market memory.

If we do in fact see a little bit of a bounce, then it’s likely that the overall uptrend continues, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that the interest rate differential continues to favor the greenback. The Bank of Japan will more likely than not have to stay somewhat loose with monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve has recently stated at the FOMC press conference that they are not ready to cut rates automatically, at least in December. So, we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

This is a market that won’t go straight up in the air forever, but I do think it goes higher over the longer term. A little bit of a drop and then a bounce opens up the possibility of value hunters coming in and picking up the U.S. dollar, jumping into this overall trend. If we break down below the ¥153 level, then the ¥152 level becomes support as well.

I Won’t Short Here

I have no interest in shorting this pair. The Japanese yen itself is weak against most currencies, and I think the U.S. dollar won’t be any different. All things being equal, I do think that we are going higher. We will probably go looking to the ¥155 level next, but it is going to be choppy and positive overall as the market has been more or less a grind to the upside. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to continue to look for value on dips and take advantage of them.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 05, 2025

• The British pound has broken below key support levels, signaling continued weakness toward 1.30 and potentially 1.2750.
• Despite occasional rallies, resistance near 1.32 and broader rate-cut expectations keep the currency under heavy selling pressure.

The British pound has spent the entire session on Tuesday falling apart as we are now well below the 1.31 level. The 1.31 level is an area that I had mentioned over the last couple of days to show signs of support, but it didn’t. So here we find ourselves going much lower. At this point, the 1.30 level seems to be almost assured.

Going Lower

I believe at this juncture we’re probably even looking at the 1.2750 level before it’s all said and done. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy to get there, and it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to get there rapidly. But I would assume that we are in a situation where traders are going to continue to look at this as a market that, anytime you see any rally showing a bit of strength or even stability, you have to look at it through the prism of a market that, at the first signs of trouble, you have to be a seller of.

With that being said, I think you have a scenario where sooner or later we do see a big flush lower, but the candlestick on Tuesday may have been something that needs to be pushed back against at least in the short term. I look at the 1.32 level as a significant resistance barrier and most certainly the 1.3268 level, where the 200-day EMA currently sits, as a major resistance barrier. For what it’s worth, we’ve done nothing but fall for the most part since the September FOMC interest rate decision.

As a result, even though people are counting on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, it looks like there’s some serious fear out there, and we just collapsed through a major support level. If you are a little bit aggressive, you could look for a move down to 1.2750, maybe 1.28, based on the measured move of the consolidation that we just absolutely fell through. I’ve got no interest in buying the British pound. It looks like traders are betting on the Bank of England cutting rates soon, and therefore, I think the pound remains under pressure.

Ready to trade the Forex GBP/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex trading platforms UK to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

slips as tech jitters overshadow stronger data. steadies post-BoJ minutes and ahead of .

DAX Slips as Tech Jitters Overshadow Stronger Data

The DAX, along with its European peers, is opening lower, extending losses for a second day. The negative start follows overnight deep declines in the US and Asia, as caution persists across global markets amid concerns about high valuations in AI-related and tech shares.

Valuation fears resurfaced this week on Wall Street after the record-breaking rally this year, driven by AI. However, warnings of a correction by the CEOs of major U.S. banks, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, fueled concerns, accelerating the move lower.

Stronger-than-expected German data could help stem the sell-off. German factory orders rose 1.1% month on month in September, recovering from a 0.4% decline in August.

Meanwhile, the shows that activity in the service sector in October was stronger than expected, with output revised from the preliminary reading of 54.5 to 54.6. This marked the fastest growth in the sector in two years, supported by a notable increase in new business and contributing to the first rise in employment in the sector in 3 months. The , considered a good gauge of business activity, was also upwardly revised to 53.9. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

On the corporate front, Siemens Healthineer was the largest loser, dropping over 7% after posting Q4 revenue slightly below expectations, pressured by US tariff imports.

BMW is rising despite a decrease in earnings before tax to €2.3 billion, which contributed to a year-to-date figure of €8 billion. Vehicle deliveries rose by 8.7% year on year, with strong growth in Europe and the US.

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

After running into resistance at 24,635 in early August, the DAX has fallen further, breaking below the 50 SMA at 24,000 and spiking to a low of 23,580, which is the rising trendline support. The long lower wick suggests that there was little demand at the lower levels as dip buyers stepped in.

Buyers would need to rise above 24,000 to be on a more stable footing, bringing 24,400 into focus.

Sellers will need to break below yesterday’s low at 23580 and the rising trendline support. A break below here brings 23,400, the 200 SMA, and horizontal support into play.

USD/JPY Steadies Post BoJ Minutes and Ahead of ADP Payrolls

USD/JPY is holding steady after yesterday’s losses, when the yen benefited from safe-haven flows amid the risk-off mood in the broader market.

However, today the picture has stabilised, suggesting that yesterday’s risk-off mood was more of a pause for breath rather than a decisive turning point.

Overnight, the minutes from the Bank of Japan meeting showed caution among board members due to the nation’s prolonged experience with deflation. The more dovish stance is limiting any upside in the yen.

While safe-haven plays have supported the yen, the also rose against its major peers yesterday on the same trade.

The US dollar trades at multi-month highs against its major peers, supported by declining bets on near-term Federal Reserve amid deep divisions among Federal Reserve board members.

Investors and policymakers are contending with a record-long government shutdown, which means U.S. economic data is scarce. As a result, more attention than usual will be on the private ADP payrolls later today, which is expected to show 25,000 jobs after -32k last month.

will also be in focus and as expected to rise to 50.8 up from 50 in September. Stronger data could help lift the US dollar, boosting USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY trades in a rising channel. The price rose to an 8-month high of 154.50 in late October, hitting the upper bound of the rising channel before easing back to test 153.00, the October 9 high. The bullish trend is still intact. Buyers will look to rise above 154.50 to create a higher high, bringing 155 into focus ahead of 156.75.

Sellers will need to break below 153.00 to open the door to a deeper selloff towards 151.

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