Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Monday, caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, leaving the metal without clear direction after tumbling 4.11% on Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole comments. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.25, down 0.23% on the day.

Warsh’s inflation-focused remarks at Jackson Hole initially pushed the US Dollar to over one-week highs, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing as high as 99.72, as traders revived bets on a September rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at next month’s meeting. The Greenback has since retraced most of those gains on Monday, with the DXY trading around 99.44 at the time of writing.

From a technical perspective, the latest leg lower has pushed XAG/USD back below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), tilting the near-term bias to bearish, though the metal still holds above the 50-day SMA at $61 and a Fibonacci support band between $60.97 (61.8% retracement) and $64.79 (38.2% level).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 53 remains in neutral territory, having eased from above 60, suggesting bullish momentum is starting to fade while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers near the zero line with a flattened profile, hinting at a consolidative phase before the next directional move.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.16, followed closely by the 100-day SMA near $68, where a sustained break would open the way toward the Fibonacci structural anchor at $70.99 and ultimately the 200-day SMA at $72.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $64.79, with deeper demand located at the 50% level at $62.88 and the 61.8% retracement at $60.97, while the 50-day SMA at $61 reinforces this broader demand zone on any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, with price action hovering around $4.450 at the time of writing yet unable to take off from last week’s lows in the $4,400 area after depreciating more than 4% late last week. Rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in September, coupled with the resumption of hostilities in Iran, are buoying the US Dollar and weighing on precious metals.

Bullion tanked on Friday as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh conveyed an unexpectedly hawkish message at the Jackson Hole summit. Warsh urged policymakers to focus on prices, and said that the central bank has “work to do” to bring inflation to the bank’s 2% target. Investors ramped up bets of a September hike to 61% from 36% the day before, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Apart from that, the US and Iran exchanged attacks on Sunday to put an end to about one month of a tense truce. The US military attacked the Iranian island of Larak on Sunday, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing missiles to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded by targeting US airbases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The risk-off reaction has underpinned support to the safe-haven US Dollar.

Technical Analysis: Bears gain confidence below the 200-day SMA

XAU/USD trades at $4,450 after an impulsive reversal on Friday that pushed price action below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,528. This is a very popular indicator for traders, and Friday’s clear move below it gives fresh hope for bears.

Momentum indicators in the bearish charts show a neutral-to-negative stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.36 easing into a more neutral zone and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator drifting into negative territory, which hints at waning upside momentum and scope for further consolidation or downside probes.

Immediate support is seen at Friday’s floor in the $4,400 area, followed by the August 14 low near $4,310 and the August 6 low, near $4,225. Bulls, on the other hand, are likely to be challenged at the mentioned 200-day SMA, at $4,528, and the August 27 low near $4,565 ahead of last week’s highs, near $4,700.;

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

On the London exchange, robusta coffee futures for September 2026 delivery fell by $65 (-1.78%) to $3,588/ton; November 2026 delivery fell by $77/ton (-2.09%) to $3,614/ton; January 2027 delivery fell by $81/ton (-2.2%) to $3,598/ton. Prices for other contracts also decreased by $84/ton.

Similarly, on the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for September 2026 delivery fell by 13.8 US cents/pound (-3.72%) to 357.6 US cents/pound; the price for December 2026 delivery fell by 13.35 US cents/pound (-3.98%) to 322.15 US cents/pound; and the March 2026 delivery price decreased by 13.15 US cents/pound (-4.09%) to 308.1 US cents/pound. Prices for other contracts fell by 12.65-13.1 cents/pound.

According to Barchart , coffee prices fell to a one-week low as improved prospects for Brazilian supply prompted investors to close out long positions following a sharp rise earlier. Robusta prices also came under pressure as inventories on ICE rose to a nine-month high.

The market is being affected by conflicting factors: improved prospects for future supply, while the availability of coffee for immediate delivery remains scarce. The shift in long-term supply expectations outweighed the short-term shortages during Wednesday’s session.

Harvesting progress in Brazil is improving, although it is still slower than the same period last year.

Silver (XAG/USD) heads north for the second consecutive day on Friday, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, due later on the day. The white metal extends gains to two-month highs a few cents below $71.00, after bouncing from the mid-range of the $67.00s on Thursday, on track to close a four-week rally.

Investors await Fed Warsh’s speech, eager for further insight about the central bank’s monetary policy, following the poor guidance provided at July’s monetary policy meeting. On Thursday, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack called for immediate monetary tightening, following hot US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures the previous day.

Technical Analysis: Bulls aim for the 200-day SMA, at $72.50

XAG/USD trades at $70.44 with near-term price action showing a constructive bias from July’s trough below $55.00. Momentum indicators in the daily chart remain within positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 66 approaching, but not yet at overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) highlighting moderate bullish traction.

Bulls are likely to meet resistance at the mid-June highs between $71.35 and $71.55 ahead of the key resistance area at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a closely watched indicator in FX markets, which is now lying at $72.50. A break above there would open the way toward the June 4 high near $75.00.

On the downside, Thursday’s low, at $67.63, is likely to provide support, ahead of a secondary floor near $63.25, which capped bears on August 18, and the August 6 low, near $60.90.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)