Coffee price activated the previously suggested bearish trend by providing new negative closes below the broken support at 276.00, to form a strong barrier and form some bearish waves, approaching the initial target at 259.60.

Note that stochastic stability within the oversold level will increase the chances of gaining extra negative momentum, to resume the bearish attempts that might target 243.40 and 233.70 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 243.40 and 270.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Breakout Triggers and First Resistance Cluster

A bullish breakout of the downtrend line and 20-day moving average will have also been triggered by then. That would leave resistance near the 50-day moving average at $4,634. Once reclaimed, an initial bullish trend reversal will be confirmed. The lower swing high at $4,774 and 100-day moving average at $4,802 target zone follows.

Weekly Structure Points to Larger Move

The weekly chart may clarify the recent low volatility environment. Last week completed a potentially bullish hammer candlestick pattern with a high of $4,595. A decisive breakout above that level would signal a bullish reversal on the larger time frame to go along with a trendline break confirmation.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

• The Overall Gold Trend: Bearish.

• Today’s Gold Support Points: $4445 – $4410 – $4340 per ounce

• Today’s Gold Resistance Points: $4530 – $4580 – $4640 per ounce

Today’s Gold Trading Signals:

Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management

Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

The price of gold has been experiencing cautious movements during recent trading sessions, amid overlapping geopolitical factors and US monetary policy expectations, which places the precious metal within a narrow trading range with a clear bias toward near-term downward pressure.

The gold price declined to the brink of the $4,445 per ounce support, which reinforces the control of the bears. Across the best gold trading platforms, the high for the yellow metal at the start of the trading week was the resistance level of $4,546 per ounce.

Overall Trend for Gold

The general trend for gold still tilts downward in the short term, with sellers maintaining control over price action, especially after prices failed to sustain their recent gains near immediate resistance levels.

Conversely, any upward attempts remain contingent on the market’s ability to absorb the pressures resulting from the strength of the US dollar and expectations of a prolonged period of tight monetary policy.

Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices

Gold prices are currently impacted by several key factors, most notably renewed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, particularly with escalating tensions regarding energy supplies and the potential impact on oil movement through vital corridors.

These developments are fueling global inflation fears, but simultaneously bolstering the strength of the US dollar, as investors tend to hedge against uncertainty in the US currency, which puts additional pressure on gold.

Furthermore, forecasts indicate that sustained high energy prices could prompt central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, to keep a tight monetary policy in place for longer than expected—an additional negative factor for gold’s performance.

Daily Technical Outlook

Technically, gold is moving within a clear downward range on the daily timeframe, with lower highs gradually forming, reflecting the continued weakness of upward momentum. Technical indicators point to a continued bearish bias, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving near weak mid-levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reflects continued downward momentum.

Trading below key moving averages reinforces the medium-term downtrend, unless a clear breakout from major resistance levels occurs to reverse this trend.

Support and Resistance Levels

Gold continues to move between important technical levels, where current support zones represent crucial points for determining the next directional move, while resistance levels form a barrier against any bullish recovery attempts.

If prices manage to hold near support levels, we may see limited rebound attempts, while a break below these levels would signal continued selling pressure.

However, if buyers manage to regain momentum, a return above key resistance levels could reopen the scenario of a gradual short-term recovery.

Expected General Scenario

The bearish scenario remains the most likely in the near term, given the ongoing strength of the dollar and increasing expectations of tight monetary policy, alongside the geopolitical uncertainty that may fuel volatility without shifting the overall trend. However, any fundamental change in inflation data or the US Federal Reserve’s stance could reshape the technical picture for gold in the coming period.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp trader, some traders prefer to follow a strategy of buying gold during sharp price declines, with the absolute necessity of strict adherence to capital management and setting stop-loss levels to mitigate risk. Any trade remains conditional upon additional confirmations from market action and avoiding random entries without clear technical signals.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

Natural gas price failed to resume the bullish trend by facing the moving average 55 near $3.360, to form some corrective waves by approaching the initial support at $3.150 level.

Note that the stability below the moving average 55 might force it to delay the bullish trend and forming some sideways trading, with a chance to decline near $2.950, while gathering positive momentum will provide chances to renew the pressure on the moving average 55 to find an exit to record extra gains that might begin at $3.520 reaching $3.680.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.350

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC fillings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

Copper price settled again above the extra support level near $6.1000, benefiting from providing positive momentum that comes from stochastic, forming some bullish waves to press on the barrier at $6.4000, to form a key for resuming the bullish trend.

Providing positive momentum by the main indicators makes us wait for breaching the barrier and holding above it, to reinforce the chances of recording extra gains that might begin from $6.5600 reaching the next main target near $6.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.2500 and $6.5600

Trend forecast: Bullish

July arabica coffee (KCN26) today is down -7.40 (-2.70%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) is down -76 (-2.14%).

Coffee prices are retreating today after updated weather forecasts called for dry conditions next week in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, allowing the coffee harvest to resume after being delayed this week by heavy rains.  

Coffee prices have ratcheted lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low last Tuesday, amid an improved global supply outlook.  On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags.  On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y).  On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags.  Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Apr) rose by +15.8% y/y to 810,000 MT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past 2 months, which is supportive of coffee prices.  ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 440,785 bags on Thursday.  Also, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, but recovered to a 6-week high of 3,968 lots last Friday.

Global weather risks are supportive for coffee prices.  Excessive dryness in Vietnam is raising concerns about the robusta coffee crop.  Weather forecaster Vaisala said recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty, and more rain is needed to aid cherry growth.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supportive for prices.  Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.  The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates  a 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices.  On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell -1.3% y/y to 2.76 million bags.  

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices.  The closure of the Strait has tightened coffee supplies by increasing global shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, and raising costs for coffee importers and roasters.  

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
 

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.