XAU/USD Current price: $4,995

• Upbeat United States employment figures boosted demand for the Greenback.
• The US macroeconomic calendar includes first-tier data on Friday.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase around $5,000 with a bearish tilt.

Gold price remains stuck around the $5,000 mark, unable to attract investors despite the market’s mood swings. The bright metal remains afloat despite the US Dollar (USD) strength following hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, showing that, in the January meeting, officials noted that “a two-way description of the path of policy could be supported,” hinting at opening for interest rate hikes, should inflation keep pressing higher.

The Greenback gained additional strength early in the American session on Thursday, following the release of upbeat employment-related data: Initial Jobless Claims rose by 206K in the week ended February 14, much better than the expected 225K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 16.3 in February ,much better than the 8.5 posted in the previous month. On a negative note, the Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $70.3 billion in December, worsening from the $-53 billion posted in November.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday’s data, as the United States (US) will publish the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favorite inflation gauge. The core annual figure is foreseen at 2.9% after posting 2.8% in November, moving further away from the Fed’s goal of 2%.

The US will also publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with annualized growth foreseen at 3%, down from the 4.4% posted in Q3. Finally, S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is neutral, with a modest negative tilt. The pair keeps trading between a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at $4,954 and a directionless 100 SMA capping the upside at around the current level. The 200-period SMA, in the meantime, maintains its bullish slope at around $4,860. Meanwhile, technical indicators turned modestly lower but remain just above their midlines.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades just below a mildly bullish 20-day SMA at $5,006.86, while the longer moving averages remain well below the current level, heading firmly north. The Momentum indicator turned higher and advances above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 54. A daily close above the 20-day SMA would refocus upside pressure and expose the $5,030 price zone, while failure to hold above the $4,950 should open the door for a steeper decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around $78.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The precious metal Silver receives support from rising safe-haven demand amid persistent tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.

US-Iran talks remain unresolved, with Tehran citing a “general agreement” on the framework of a potential nuclear deal with US officials. Vice President JD Vance said Iran failed to meet US red lines, while President Donald Trump reiterated that military action remains an option. Reports indicate any US strike could turn into a prolonged campaign, with Israel advocating regime change in the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia ended two days of peace talks in Geneva without progress. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Moscow of stalling US-led efforts to end the four-year conflict. Trump has repeatedly pressed Ukraine to accept a deal that may involve significant concessions, as Russian forces continue striking energy infrastructure and advancing on the battlefield.

However, gains in dollar-denominated Silver may be capped as the US Dollar (USD) stays firm amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger Greenback often reflects higher US yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver. The grey metal also becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the January meeting revived speculation about potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. While most policymakers supported keeping rates unchanged, only a few favored a cut, and officials indicated they could ease policy if inflation moderates as expected. Traders modestly pared Fed rate cut bets but still expect two 25 basis points reductions before year-end.

Gold struggles below $5,000 in Thursday’s Asian trades as buyers take a breather after the 2% rally on Wednesday.

Gold remains supported by haven demand

Gold stood tall on Wednesday, despite the solid recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields, fuelled by somewhat hawkish Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January monetary policy meeting.

The Minutes suggested that the Fed remains in no rush to cut interest rates, with several policymakers open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, others inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.

However, the markets’ pricing for three 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cuts this year remained intact, which seems to have supported the non-yielding Gold.

The main catalyst behind Gold’s upswing was the return of haven demand due to renewed geopolitical tensions. Two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended without a breakthrough. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was dissatisfied with the outcome.

Meanwhile, CBS News reported, citing sources familiar with internal discussions, a potential US military strike on Iran could come as early as Saturday.

This comes after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that Tehran has agreed with the US ‘on guiding principles’ for the deal, following their Geneva talks.

Against this backdrop, Gold seems to continue its recent upside but the US Dollar could have an upper hand heading toward Friday’s US PCE inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

The Greenback also draws support from the latest data released by the US Treasury Department, which showed a net inflow of $44.9 billion in Treasury International Capital (TIC) for December 2025. The data increased foreign appetite for US assets.

Next of note for Gold traders remains the US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales data and Fedspeak scheduled later in the North American session on Thursday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, preserving a bullish alignment. Price holds below the 21-day SMA at $5,001.04 but remains above the 50-day SMA at $4,688.83 and the longer baselines, keeping the broader bias upward. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 53 (neutral), reflecting steady momentum. Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the 50% retracement at $4,999.94 acts as immediate resistance.

A daily close above $4,999.94 would expose the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05, where recovery attempts could stall. Failure to reclaim the 21-day SMA would leave the rebound vulnerable, bringing the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82 into view, while the rising 100-day SMA at $4,393.61 underpins the medium-term trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s positive move and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, however, holds above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and currently trades just above mid-$76.00s, down 1.0% for the day.

The XAG/USD holds above this average, signaling a tentative recovery attempt. Moreover, the overnight breakout through a short-term descending channel resistance, which coincides with the said SMA, favors bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55, neutral, after easing from earlier overbought readings.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped into slight negative territory after contracting, suggesting the MACD line has fallen below the Signal line near the zero level. The descending channel resistance breakpoint and the 100-hour SMA should offer initial support to the XAG/USD.

Holding above the SMA would keep recovery attempts in play, while a close back beneath it would open the door to a deeper pullback. As long as the XAG/USD holds above the breakout point, the path would favor further recovery. That said, a close back inside the formation would revive the prior downtrend toward the lower band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

XAG/USD 1-hour chart

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive tone on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as dip buyers step in to cushion the downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is hovering around $77.50, up over 5.5% on the day.

Despite the intraday bounce, the white metal could struggle to build on gains in the near term as traders reassess the evolving macro backdrop and technical landscape. Investors remain cautious about chasing prices aggressively higher, with speculative interest cooling after the sharp correction from record highs near $121.66 set in late January.

At the same time, signs of progress in US-Iran talks could weigh on safe-haven demand, but Silver’s dual role as both an industrial and investment metal remains supportive, while a persistent physical supply deficit helps to keep the broader outlook supported on dips.

Trading volumes are expected to remain thin, with China and several other Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), one of the largest venues for physical silver trading and delivery, may reduce liquidity during Asian hours, with trading activity likely to normalize when markets reopen next Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is starting to turn constructive. XAG/USD is forming a triangle pattern, with price action compressing and volatility narrowing, increasing the risk of a breakout in either direction.

Momentum indicators are beginning to tilt in favor of the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed into positive territory and remains above its signal line, pointing to improving upside momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 55, firming above the neutral 50 mark and suggesting strengthening buying pressure.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands near the upper boundary of the triangle around the $80.00 psychological mark. A break above this level could pave the way toward the 100-period SMA at $85.69. However, the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside unless price clears that moving average decisively.

On the downside, a break below the lower boundary of the triangle could expose the recent correction low near $64.00, which may act as the next key support level.

XAU/USD Current price: $4,999

• FOMC Minutes unlikely to impact prices with all eyes on Kevin Warsh.
• The US Dollar trades mixed amid persistent political uncertainty in the United States.
• XAU/USD maintains its neutral stance, upside capped by the $5,030 region

Spot Gold trades with a better tone on Thursday, trimming previous session losses and struggling to recover the $5,000 mark in the American session. The bright metal managed to recover from a weekly low of $4,842.06 achieved on Wednesday, but the lack of follow-through is likely to keep buying interest subdued.

The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed across the FX board as investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) February monetary policy meeting. Policymakers held the interest rate unchanged when they met in January, in line with the market expectations. The accompanying statement provided not many clues on what’s next in the docket, while the following press conference led by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell revolved around politics rather than monetary policy.

And there’s a good reason for that: Chair Powell’s term ends in May, and President Donald Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor. Warsh’s Senate approval remains pending, but market players assume he will be the next head of the Fed and that he will deliver rate cuts. How many and at what pace remains a doubt. Yet the biggest doubt is whether the Fed could remain independent if Warsh shows signs of pleasing Trump rather than following the FOMC’s path.

Back to the Minutes, the document has little chance of impressing market players, as all eyes are on whatever Warsh may or may not do.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD shows the pair remains neutral. It trades above a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,961.02, while a directionless 100-period SMA caps advances at $5,009.35. The 200-period SMA aims higher at $4,844.63, keeping the broader bias underpinned even as price consolidates between the shorter benchmarks. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator steadies at 55, reinforcing the idea of a consolidative phase.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is unable to advance beyond a bullish 20-day SMA at around $5,003 for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, technical indicators bounced, the Momentum from near oversold readings and still dipped into negative territory, and the RSI indicator from around its midline, aiming north at around 54. The longer moving averages in the daily chart maintainain their bullish slopes far below the current level, helping limit the mid-term bearish case.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)