Despite the neediness of coffee price to the positive momentum in the last period, its stability above 276.00 support helped to provide a chance for activating the previously suggested bullish trend, surpassing 295.00 level makes us begin targeting some positive stations by its rally towards 313.00 reaching 66.8%Fibonacci correction level at 329.60.

Facing new negative pressures and breaking the current support will force it to suffer several losses, to expect to reach 257.00 initially followed by 233.40 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 282.00 and 313.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price began this morning with strong positivity, to rally above $5.9700 level, taking advantage of the attempt to provide positive momentum by the main indicators, to settle near $6.0080.

Providing a positive close above the breached barrier is important to confirm its readiness to activate the bullish trend, to expect targeting $6.1200 and $6.2500 level initially, while activating the corrective trend requires providing negative close below $5.8100.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.8700 and $6.1200

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market this morning, May 6, recorded a positive recovery after a series of gloomy days.

In key growing areas of the Central Highlands, purchasing prices simultaneously increased by 400 to 500 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 86.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices recorded an increase of 500 VND, pushing the purchase price to the milestone of 86.2 million VND/kg, continuing to be the locality with the highest price in the region.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 400 VND, currently trading stably at 86,000 VND/kg.

Riêng khu vực Lâm Đồng niêm yết mức giá 85. 500 đồng/kg sau khi hồi phục thêm 500 đồng so với phiên hôm qua. Bên cạnh đó, giá hồ tiêu tiếp tục đi ngang ở mức cao 143. 000 đồng/kg, trong khi tỷ giá USD/VND tại Vietcombank giảm nhẹ 8 đồng về mức 26. 098 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the international market, the New York exchange became the focus when Arabica prices strongly broke through to the highest level in the past week.

At the end of the trading session, the July term increased by 4.25 cents (equivalent to 1.49%), closing at 289.75 cents/lb.

Following the same trend, Robusta prices in London also maintained green when increasing by another 14 USD (equivalent to 0.42%), reaching the 3,378 USD/ton mark. This recovery shows that the market is reacting very sensitively to fluctuations from the money market and the world geopolitical situation.

Coffee price assessment

The main driving force pushing coffee prices up comes from the resonance of many macroeconomic factors. Brazil’s Real has jumped to its highest level in 2.25 years against the USD, directly putting pressure on Brazilian farmers to limit export sales because they earn less domestic currency.

At the same time, the prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East tensions is still disrupting the global supply chain, pushing transportation costs, insurance and especially fertilizer prices to skyrocket. In addition, Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange anchored at a 2.25-month low and Robusta inventories maintained at a record low of 16.25 months (3,755 lots) are also important pillars helping prices escape the short-term bottom.

However, the breakthrough momentum of coffee prices still faces a major resistance from forecasts of a nearing super surplus crop year. Organizations such as StoneX and Marex still maintain their assessment of a record harvest in Brazil with an expected output of up to 75.9 million bags, which could lead to a global surplus of 10 million bags for 2026. In Vietnam, export data for the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also contributing to easing concerns about short-term Robusta supply in the international market.

As I’m watching this three-day short-covering rally develop, I’m already planning for the pullback. That’s the move I’ll be watching for because that’s when the new buyers tend to show up. If they believe in the rally then they’re going to buy the first correction because they have the bottom at $2.592 to lean on. They aren’t trying to pick the bottom, but they will buy if they see an exit.

If buyers do come in on the first pullback then a secondary higher bottom could form, setting in motion the chances of an even steeper rally. The second rally is usually strong because it’s driven by short-covering and new buying. So this is our near-term plan.

The current near-term range is $2.905 to $2.592. Its pivot is $2.749. I’ll be watching this level to see if a test attracts new buyers.

Our current near-term targets are a minor top at $2.905 and the 50-day moving average at $2.987. The latter is critical because it is resistance, a trend indicator and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. Overcoming the 50-day MA could extend the rally further into an intermediate 50% level at $3.107.

Essentially, over the short-run we’re not chasing the first leg up, but we will be looking for a 50% pullback of the short-covering rally and playing for a secondary higher bottom formation to fuel an even bigger rally over the near-term.

Weather Gave the Bulls a Session

Below-normal temperatures are sitting across the Midwest through May 13 and that is what got the buyers off the sideline Monday. Cooler forecasts at this time of year pull in heating demand when the market was expecting none. Lower-48 gas consumption came in at 65.5 Bcf per day Monday, up 7.0% year over year. That number tells you the weather is already influencing usage. It is not enough to flip the fundamental picture but it gave traders a reason to cover shorts after April’s beating and that was enough to run the market 3% in a session.

Brent crude continues to post strong gains in its recent intraday trading, approaching the key resistance level at $112.00, this level was one of our previously projected price targets. However, the market is currently showing a phase of relative calm, during which the price is attempting to take profits from its prior gains while building positive momentum that could help it break above this resistance.

The price remains supported by dynamic pressure as it continues to trade above EMA50, reinforcing the stability and dominance of the main short-term bullish trend. This is further supported by movement along an upward trendline, along with ongoing positive signals from relative strength indicators, despite reaching heavily overbought levels.

The GBPJPY pair confirmed its surrender to the dominance of the previously bearish bias by providing new close below 213.40 level, forming an extra barrier against the current trading, breaching 211.80 level to force it to provide temporary mixed trading by holding near 212.65.

Gathering extra negative momentum is important to ease the way for reaching below 211.80, opening the way for resuming the bearish trend by reaching 211.30, attempting to reach the next support near 210.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 211.30 and 213.20

Trend forecast: Bearish 

Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market in this morning session on May 5, 2026 recorded a deep downward correction, erasing the fragile recovery efforts of previous days.

Specifically, the average purchase price for the entire Central Highlands region has retreated to the threshold of 85,600 VND per kg, down 900 VND compared to the most recent data recorded on May 3, 2026.

In key localities, Dak Nong province (old) currently maintains the highest purchasing price in the region at 85,700 VND per kg, a sharp decrease compared to the 86,600 VND mark recorded last weekend.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both listed prices at 85,600 VND per kg, while in the Lam Dong area, coffee prices recorded a decrease of up to 1,000 VND to reach 85,000 VND per kg.

World coffee prices

Developments in the international market in the nearest closing session showed clear differentiation due to the impact of the holiday in the UK market.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange for July 2026 delivery fell 0.90 cents, equivalent to a decrease of 0.31%, closing at 294.90 cents per pound.

The market initially tried to maintain green thanks to concerns about the Hoarmuz Strait being closed due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran increasing transportation, fertilizer and insurance costs, but the strength of the recovering USD at the end of the session submerged this upward momentum.

Meanwhile, the London exchange did not record transactions for Robusta coffee due to the UK market temporarily closing for International Labor Day holiday. Although Arabica inventory reports at the ICE exchange fell to the lowest level in more than 2 months with 494,508 bags, combined with a significant decrease in green coffee exports from Brazil in March, that much was still not enough to help Arabica prices stand firm against macroeconomic pressure.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

According to analysts, coffee prices are under heavy pressure from the prospect of abundant supply in the long term despite short-term technical tightening.

The Coffee Transaction Institute has just issued a challenging forecast, saying that Brazil’s 2026-2027 crop output will increase sharply by 12% compared to the previous year, reaching 71.4 million bags.

Even, Marex Group Plc gave a higher figure of 75.9 million bags, while StoneX forecast that the global coffee surplus in 2026 could expand to 10 million bags, marking the largest surplus in the past 6 years.

In Vietnam, data from the Statistics Office shows that coffee exports in the first 4 months of 2026 increased by 15.8% compared to the same period last year, reaching 810,000 tons, which continues to put downward pressure on the Robusta line.

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