• Silver price recovers from a four-day low but remains stuck in a $1 range, failing to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar and falling yields.
• Momentum supports buyers, with RSI in bullish territory, as XAG/USD targets the YTD high of $34.86 and beyond.
• A break below $33.25 could shift bias to neutral, with further support at $33.00 and the October 17 low of $31.32.

Silver consolidated at around $33.60 as grey metal bulls failed to capitalize on falling US yields and a weak US Dollar. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is seesawing within a $1 range and virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price recovered some ground after falling to a four-day low of $33.25. The uptrend remains intact, and if buyers lift the XAG/USD spot price above $34.00 a troy ounce, they could challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at $34.86.

Momentum backs buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting in bullish territory.

If XAG/USD clears the YTD high, the next key resistance levels would be the October 2012 peak at $35.40, ahead of challenging the psychological $40.00, and the August 2011 high at $44.22.

Conversely, if the grey metal drops below $33.25, the next support would be $33.00. The break below could shift the bias to neutral, and if sellers drive Silver’s below October 17 low of $31.32, XAG/USD might reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.64.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $2,736.27

• Upbeat United States data helped the US Dollar after its early slide.
• US data stands out on an otherwise quiet Friday.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, sellers have no interest.

Gold price recovered some ground on Thursday, trading as high as $2,743.15 a troy ounce by the end of the European session. The bright metal shed some ground after the United States (US) unveiled upbeat macroeconomic data, albeit demand for the US Dollar remains subdued.

XAU/USD eased after the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 227K in the week ended October 18, much better than the 242K expected. Even further,  The flash US S&P Global October Composite PMI rose to 54.3 after printing at 54.0 final in September. Manufacturing activity improved to 47.8 from 47.3 in September, beating the anticipated 47.5. The services index printed at 55.3, up from 55.2 in the previous month and above the 55 forecast.

Still, the US Dollar has been unable to fully recover its upward poise, under pressure since early Asia amid mounting concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election. Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sheds roughly 0.45% for the day, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite trade in the green.

Partially explaining USD near-term weakness are Treasury yields, retreating just modestly after reaching fresh multi-week peaks earlier in the week. At the time of writing, the 10-year note offers 4.20%, while the 2-year note yields 4.05%.

The macroeconomic calendar will include on Friday, US September Durable Goods Orders and the October Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Upbeat figures will likely give the USD a boost ahead of the weekly close.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows bulls retain control. Technical indicators resume their advances around weekly highs and after a modest downward correction, enough to erase overbought conditions. At the same time, the pair trades above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovering at around $2,670. At the same time, the pair found buyers around the  23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,601.87/$2,756.36 rally at $2,721.20. The next relevant support level is 2,698.66, the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.

The 4-hour chart offers a neutral stance, although sellers are out of the picture. XAU/USD is hovering around a flat 20 SMA, but far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. The aforementioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement provided near-term support during American trading hours, supporting additional gains ahead. Finally, technical indicators hover directionlessly around their midlines, not enough to define the next directional move.

Support levels: 2,721.20 2,708.50, 2,698.60

Resistance levels: 2,732.70 2,743.15 2,758.40

Next Target is 2.52

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.52 was easily exceeded today putting natural gas in line to test resistance around 50% retracement at 2.615. That price area is strengthened by the 20-Day MA (purple), which is currently showing the same price level. The 20-Day line reflected support of the prior uptrend following the September 3 upside breakout of the line. It failed to maintain support once the price of natural gas closed below it on October 11. Now, it presents a potential area of resistance. Plus, once the 50-Day MA is cleared, as occurred today, the next moving average in the sequence becomes an upside target.

61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at 2.71 Looks Likely

Nonetheless, since this week’s swing low was higher than the previous swing low, the current advance has the potential to eventually exceed the 50% retracement and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.71. An unfilled gap begins at 2.66 and goes to 2.72, filling right around the Fibonacci level. The top down trendline was successfully tested as resistance during the formation of the recent 3.02 swing high. That was essentially the third touch of the top trendline following the beginning of the line starting from the October 2023 peak. This identifies the line as solid resistance and indicates the potential for a sharp rally if it is exceeded to the upside.

Trendlines Mark Near-term Boundaries

Current price action is proceeding between two trendlines, resistance at the top and support at a new internal rising trendline connecting the August swing low with this week’s swing low. The intersection of the lines can tell us something about timing as they cross January 3, 2025. A vertical dotted line has been placed at the intersection. One of the two lines will be broken before then and that should tell us something about the strength or weakness of natural gas.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Experts predict that on October 25, 10, coffee prices in the domestic market are expected to continue to increase in many localities, especially in the Central Highlands.

The strong USD has pushed down the prices of gold and crude oil. However, coffee has recovered after falling too much in the previous days. The market has seen resistance as new crop supplies from Vietnam have not yet joined the transaction.

Dealers said foreign demand for Vietnamese coffee is declining, as many countries have secured coffee supplies from other sources, especially as the EU’s deforestation regulation is expected to take effect by the end of 2024, a delay from the original plan.

Speculators are also reducing net long positions ahead of the harvest in the top robusta producing nation. world, which is expected to ramp up sales next month. The European Union’s (EU) delay in implementing its anti-deforestation law, the EUDR, has reduced the urgency for new deals, further dampening the market.

According to experts, in the world market, Arabica coffee prices are likely to recover strongly, while Robusta tends to continue to fluctuate.

Recorded in the trading session on October 24, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased sharply by 2024 – 1.600 VND/kg, ranging from 1.900 – 109.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109.700 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 109.700 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.600 VND, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.500 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 109.700 VND/kg, down 1.900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 109.400 VND/kg, down 1.600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 24) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 24, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.425 USD; Delivery term in January 78 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.335 is 70 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 242.55 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in December 12 is 2024 cents/lb; down 247.65 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. March 4.70 delivery is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; Delivery period in May 246.50 is 4.55 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and delivery period in July 2025 is 245.00 cents/lb, down 4.55 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 24, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 301.65 is 0.66 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 302.15 USD/ton, up 0.80% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 305.90%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

The 2023-2024 crop year ended with a supply-demand balance tilted towards a surplus of 1 million bags. However, the 2024-2025 coffee output is forecast to be heavily impacted by extreme weather factors. Therefore, coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to remain high, double that of the same period last year.

Industry insiders believe that coffee prices in the fourth quarter may be adjusted down due to additional supply from major coffee growing countries, including Vietnam.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for both 2024 and 2025.

According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.91 per barrel this year and $73.13 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in September, projected that the WTI spot price would average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel.

In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would come in at $71.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $74.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $73.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $71.22 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s September STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $77.64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $79.02 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $80.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $78.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Head of Commodities Research Paul Horsnell late Tuesday revealed that the company is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $84 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $86 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, and $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last week showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The average response executives from 134 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $72.66 per barrel, the survey showed. When asked where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years, executives from 119 oil and gas firms gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey outlined.

In a technical analysis of WTI prices sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “from a technical perspective, crude oil prices are facing increasing pressures as markets shake off the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and supply appears to be abundant”.

“To regain momentum, the price needs to surpass the pivotal level at $71.50 with a daily close, which would provide an opportunity to test the level of $75.13, a significant hurdle,” Gule added.

“On the downside, the support level at $67.12 should be monitored; if it is breached, the market could decline to the lowest level of 2024 at $64.75, followed by $64.38,” Gule warned.

In the analysis, Gule stated that, currently, the oil market is undergoing a sideways consolidation phase between $78.00 and $64.00, with the overall outlook leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment.

“Momentum indicators suggest a near-term corrective upward move that could reach $75.00 and $78.00 in the medium term, although the price remains below the 200-day simple moving average at $75.37,” Gule added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

• Silver price recovers above $34.00 as US yields tumble.
• The Fed is expected to pursue a moderate rate-cut approach.
• Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East limit the downside of the Silver price.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds strongly above $34.00 in Thursday’s European session after declining to near $33.40 on Wednesday. The white metal bounces back as US bond yields tumble after a sharp rally in the past few weeks. 10-year US bond yields plummet to 4.19%, down 1.28% at the time of writing.

Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Meanwhile, the US Dollar also faced a slight correction after a sharp rally. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 104.15 after posting a fresh 12-week high around 104.50 on Wednesday.

The outlook of US yields and the Greenback remains firm as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a moderate interest rate cut cycle. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December.

In today’s session, investors will focus on the flash United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for October, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.

The Silver price remains well-supported due to uncertainty over the US presidential election, which is coming in less than two weeks, and escalating Middle East tensions. The scenario of geopolitical and political uncertainty bodes well for precious metals, such as Silver price, as investors use the asset as a hedge in risky market conditions.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers sharply after a mild correction to near $33.40. The white metal aims to revisit a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00. The asset strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as support for now. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $32.30 and $31.10, respectively, signal more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• The US Dollar stalls with Treasury bond yields as Tesla’s earnings report lifts mood.
• Technically, Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade, 38.2% Fibo level holds the key.

Gold price is reversing a part of Wednesday’s correction from record highs of $2,759 early Thursday. Gold buyers draw support from a pause in the US Dollar (USD) advance, as the US Treasury bond yields rally takes a breather in the lead-up to the preliminary S&P Global US PMI data.

Gold price looks to US PMI data for further incentives

The minor pullback in the USD alongside the US Treasury bond yields could be attributed to a stabilizing market mood in Asia, following Wall Street’s tech sell-off overnight. US equity futures rebound amid a risk reset after investors breathed a sigh of relief on Tesla Inc.’s encouraging earnings report.

Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share for the quarter, above the average analyst estimate and snapping four consecutive quarters in which the measure missed expectations, per CNBC News. The company said its Cybertruck, which it first delivered late last year, has reached profitability for the first time,

The further upside in Gold price, however, remains at the mercy of the upcoming Euro area and the US preliminary business PMI data. Investors will seek cues on the health of the global economy, impacting risk sentiment and safe-havens such as the USD, Gold price, etc.

The US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI is seen ticking higher to 47.5 in October from September’s 47.3 while the Services PMI is set to edge a tad lower to 55.0 in the same period from 55.2 in September.

Meanwhile, the market’s nervousness ahead of key US earnings reports and the presidential election will also play its part in driving the sentiment around Gold price. Any potential decline in Gold price is likely to be bought into, as buyers could re-emerge on Gold’s safe-haven demand due to the November 5 US election and the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price seems to be facing stiff resistance at $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to an all-time high of $2,759.

Acceptance above that level could encourage buyers to take on the $2,750 psychological barrier. The record high of $2,759 will be next on buyers’ radars.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flattish but well above the 50 level, currently trading near 65.60, pointing to more upside momentum.

However, if Gold sellers jump back into the game, the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700 will come to the rescue of buyers.

A sustained move below the latter will put the 50% Fibo support at $2,682 to the test.

The line in the sand for Gold optimists is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670.

• The US Dollar stalls with Treasury bond yields as Tesla’s earnings report lifts mood.
• Technically, Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade, 38.2% Fibo level holds the key.

Gold price is reversing a part of Wednesday’s correction from record highs of $2,759 early Thursday. Gold buyers draw support from a pause in the US Dollar (USD) advance, as the US Treasury bond yields rally takes a breather in the lead-up to the preliminary S&P Global US PMI data.

Gold price looks to US PMI data for further incentives

The minor pullback in the USD alongside the US Treasury bond yields could be attributed to a stabilizing market mood in Asia, following Wall Street’s tech sell-off overnight. US equity futures rebound amid a risk reset after investors breathed a sigh of relief on Tesla Inc.’s encouraging earnings report.

Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents per share for the quarter, above the average analyst estimate and snapping four consecutive quarters in which the measure missed expectations, per CNBC News. The company said its Cybertruck, which it first delivered late last year, has reached profitability for the first time,

The further upside in Gold price, however, remains at the mercy of the upcoming Euro area and the US preliminary business PMI data. Investors will seek cues on the health of the global economy, impacting risk sentiment and safe-havens such as the USD, Gold price, etc.

The US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI is seen ticking higher to 47.5 in October from September’s 47.3 while the Services PMI is set to edge a tad lower to 55.0 in the same period from 55.2 in September.

Meanwhile, the market’s nervousness ahead of key US earnings reports and the presidential election will also play its part in driving the sentiment around Gold price. Any potential decline in Gold price is likely to be bought into, as buyers could re-emerge on Gold’s safe-haven demand due to the November 5 US election and the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price seems to be facing stiff resistance at $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to an all-time high of $2,759.

Acceptance above that level could encourage buyers to take on the $2,750 psychological barrier. The record high of $2,759 will be next on buyers’ radars.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flattish but well above the 50 level, currently trading near 65.60, pointing to more upside momentum.

However, if Gold sellers jump back into the game, the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700 will come to the rescue of buyers.

A sustained move below the latter will put the 50% Fibo support at $2,682 to the test.

The line in the sand for Gold optimists is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,719.65

• Rising US Treasury yields amid looming US elections back the US Dollar.
• Polls show a tight intention vote between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its corrective advance, could pierce the $2,700 level.

Spot Gold reached yet another record high on Wednesday, trading as high as $2,758.36 before turning south. The bright metal retreated from such a high and trades at around $2,720 as the US Dollar maintained its positive momentum across the FX board. Financial markets are in risk-averse mode, with global stocks under pressure. Tech shares led the slide, albeit speculative interest is also looking at government bond yields, which jumped this week in anticipation of the United States (US) presidential election.

The world’s largest economy heads into the polls in little over two weeks, with no clear winner ahead of the event. It seems Vice President Kamala Harris is leading and has a roughly 2% lead over former President Donald Trump, yet the difference is barely significant.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields extended their weekly advance. The 10-year note currently offers 4.26%, while the 2-year note yields 4.06%, levels not seen since early in July.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is currently stuck at around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,601.87/$2,756.36 rally at $2,721.20. The decline seems corrective, although it may continue towards $2,698.66, the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.

In the daily chart, technical indicators turned south, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator correcting overbought conditions and the Momentum easing from October highs. Both indicators support another leg lower, yet a break through the daily low at $2,708.57 will help confirm the slide. Additionally, it is worth mentioning moving averages maintain their firm upward slopes far below the current level, keeping the long-term bullish trend alive.

The 4-hour chart shows a near-term downward continuation is likely. Technical indicators head south almost vertically, crossing their midlines into the negative territory. At the same time, XAU/USD lost its bullish strength and turned flat, now providing dynamic resistance at around $2,732.70. Nevertheless, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing far below the current level, limiting the downward potential of the pair.

Support levels: 2,708.50, 2,698.60, 2,680.10

Resistance levels: 2,732.70, 2,744.10 2,758.40

• Silver price faces selling pressure as US bond yields rise sharply.
• Middle East tensions and US political uncertainty will limit the downside in the Silver price.
• Trump’s victory could weigh on exports of US close trading partners.

Silver price (XAG/USD) corrects sharply below $34.50 in Wednesday’s New York session after registering a fresh more than 12-year high slightly below $35.00 on Tuesday. The rally in the white metal appears to have paused for a while as the US Treasury yields have extended its upside.

10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.24% as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a gradual policy-easing cycle. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. The US Dollar (USD), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits the August high of 104.45.

However, the upside trend remains intact due to multiple catalysts. From growing United States (US) political uncertainty to escalating Middle East tensions, every catalyst is acting as a tailwind for the Silver price.

According to the Reuters/Ipsos polls, current Vice President Kamala Harris leads by a slight margin against former President Donald Trump. However, market participants worry that Trump’s victory could result in higher tariffs and lower taxes, which could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to return to the restrictive policy stance for a period of time.

In the Middle East region, the launch of a rocket salvo by Iran-backed-Hezbollah on Israel’s military base near Tel Aviv exhibits signs that tensions between them will stay afloat. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, as a safe haven, given that investors consider them as a hedge against dismal market sentiment.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slumps after failing to capture the key resistance of $35.00. The white metal strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as a support for now. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $32.15 signal more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart