• Gold price extends its recovery momentum toward $2,400 on US CPI day.
• The US Dollar nurses losses with Treasury bond yields, as risk flows dominate on Fed rate cut bets.
• Gold price keeps eyes on $2,400 and US CPI inflation data amid bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price is extending its upbeat momentum into a third consecutive day on Thursday, eagerly looking forward to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release later in the day to seal in a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

All eyes remain on US CPI report

Following a brief pause in the Gold price recovery following round one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, buyers regained control on Wednesday after Powell’s second congressional appearance.

Powell’s caution on loosening labor market conditions suggested a September rate cut is likely on the cards, knocking off the US Dollar (USD) once again alongwith the US Treasury bond yields. Heightening dovish Fed expectations fuelled a risk-on rally on Wall Street, which exerted additional downside pressure on the safe-haven Greenback.

Broad US Dollar weakness, Gold price made another run toward $2,400 but failed due to risk appetite, diminishing the demand for the non-yielding Gold price.

On Thursday, risk flows extend into Asian trading, keeping Gold price afloat at the expense of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields seems to lack conviction, in the face of the expected slowdown in the annual US CPI inflation data for June.

The US CPI is seen rising 3.1% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May while the annual core CPI inflation is likely to steady at 3.4% in the same period. On a monthly basis, CPI is set to rise 0.1% while core CPI is seen up by 0.2%.

A softer-than-expected US headline annual CPI data or a downside surprise in the monthly inflation figure could affirm a September Fed rate cut while boosting odds for another rate cut in December. Conversely, hot inflation data could push back against Fed rate cuts as early as September.

In the former case, Gold price could storm through the roof and retest all-time highs, as the US Dollar is likely to melt with the yields. However, hot US inflation data could sink Gold price toward $2,300.

Markets are currently pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Besides, speeches from Fed officials and US President Joe Biden could also have some bearing on the USD-denominated Gold price. Biden could express his take on the June inflation data and the timing of the Fed rate cut. Also, markets could focus on his comments on the nomination issue amid long-simmering concerns about Biden’s age and whether he’s fit to serve a second term as a US President.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to lean in favor of buyers, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the downside, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

• Gold price extends its recovery momentum toward $2,400 on US CPI day.
• The US Dollar nurses losses with Treasury bond yields, as risk flows dominate on Fed rate cut bets.
• Gold price keeps eyes on $2,400 and US CPI inflation data amid bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price is extending its upbeat momentum into a third consecutive day on Thursday, eagerly looking forward to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release later in the day to seal in a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

All eyes remain on US CPI report

Following a brief pause in the Gold price recovery following round one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, buyers regained control on Wednesday after Powell’s second congressional appearance.

Powell’s caution on loosening labor market conditions suggested a September rate cut is likely on the cards, knocking off the US Dollar (USD) once again alongwith the US Treasury bond yields. Heightening dovish Fed expectations fuelled a risk-on rally on Wall Street, which exerted additional downside pressure on the safe-haven Greenback.

Broad US Dollar weakness, Gold price made another run toward $2,400 but failed due to risk appetite, diminishing the demand for the non-yielding Gold price.

On Thursday, risk flows extend into Asian trading, keeping Gold price afloat at the expense of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields seems to lack conviction, in the face of the expected slowdown in the annual US CPI inflation data for June.

The US CPI is seen rising 3.1% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May while the annual core CPI inflation is likely to steady at 3.4% in the same period. On a monthly basis, CPI is set to rise 0.1% while core CPI is seen up by 0.2%.

A softer-than-expected US headline annual CPI data or a downside surprise in the monthly inflation figure could affirm a September Fed rate cut while boosting odds for another rate cut in December. Conversely, hot inflation data could push back against Fed rate cuts as early as September.

In the former case, Gold price could storm through the roof and retest all-time highs, as the US Dollar is likely to melt with the yields. However, hot US inflation data could sink Gold price toward $2,300.

Markets are currently pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Besides, speeches from Fed officials and US President Joe Biden could also have some bearing on the USD-denominated Gold price. Biden could express his take on the June inflation data and the timing of the Fed rate cut. Also, markets could focus on his comments on the nomination issue amid long-simmering concerns about Biden’s age and whether he’s fit to serve a second term as a US President.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to lean in favor of buyers, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the downside, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

By Emily Mee, Money reporter

If TikTok is anything to go by, many of us are seeking that Sabrina Carpenter bronzed look this summer (me included). 

But without a pop star’s team of make-up artists and the bank account to boot, how can the rest of us get that perfect glow? 

We’ve asked four beauty experts to give us their top affordable dupes for high-end products. Here’s what they said (before one of them reveals the product you should never skimp on)… 

Suzanne Baum, freelance beauty editor

For Suzanne, affordable make-up brand e.l.f. can’t be beaten for its dupes: “Super affordable, long-lasting and provides a perfect finish for a summer glow.” 

These are her picks from the brand… 

e.l.f. Bronzing Drops, £12 

It’s a dupe for… Drunk Elephant’s D-Bronzi drops, £34

“A nourishing tinted serum for a sun-kissed glow,” she says. 

Just add one to three drops to your moisturiser, face oil or body cream.

e.l.f. Halo Glow Liquid Filter, £15 

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Flawless Filter, at £39

“A multi-purpose, liquid glow booster that gives your complexion a soft-focus social filter effect IRL,” says Suzanne. 

Wear on its own for sheer coverage, under foundation as a luminous base, as a highlighter or mixed with foundation for a dewy glow.

e.l.f. Power Grip Primer, £10 

It’s a dupe for… Milk Makeup Hydro Grip Primer, £35 

“A gel-based, hydrating face primer that smooths skin while gripping your make-up,” Suzanne says. 

e.l.f. Halo Glow Contour Beauty Wand, £9 

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Beauty Light Wand, £30 

“A liquid contour wand with a cushion-tip applicator for a naturally sculpted complexion,” the beauty expert says. 

Apply to your hairline, temples, sides of your nose, hollows of your cheeks and jawline, then blend with a brush. 

e.l.f. Camo Liquid Blush, £7

It’s a dupe for…. Rare Beauty Soft Pink Liquid Blush, £24

“A long-lasting liquid blush that delivers a high pigment pop of colour to cheeks with a dewy finish,” says Suzanne. 

e.l.f. Glow Reviver Lip Oil, £8 

It’s a dupe for… Dior Lip Glow Oil, £32 

“An ultra-glossy tinted lip oil that nourishes, hydrates and enhances your lips’ natural colour,” Suzanne says. 

Joyce Connor, make-up artist 

For Joyce, she’ll often go for the high-end brands over dupes – but there was one product that she thought was even better than the original. 

Here are her picks… 

Revolution Pro CC Perfecting Skin Enhancer, £10

It’s a dupe for… IT Cosmetics CC+ Nude Glow, £37

The IT Cosmetics product is Joyce’s go-to, but she says the Revolution version makes for a “very good” dupe. 

She says it gives a “nice glow without being shiny, because in the summer we don’t want to be caked in make-up”. 

It is worth noting that the IT Cosmetics version includes SPF 40, whereas the Revolution one does not. 

Apply before foundation for an added glow. 

Boots Glow Essence Serum, £5 

It’s a dupe for… Glossier Future Dew Facial Oil Serum Hybrid, £30

There’s quite a difference in price here, and Joyce says the Boots version gives a “nice sheen” under your foundation. 

However, she notes the Glossier product has a more golden tint. 

Massage two to three drops onto your skin before moisturising. 

Avon Radiance Ritual Touch Of Gold Body Oil, £5

It’s a dupe for… Sol De Janeiro GlowMotions Glow Body Oil, £35

For added glow, massage into the skin and do not rinse – or you can use it as a bath oil. 

NYX Professional Makeup Fat Oil Lip Drip Lip Gloss, £7.99

It’s a dupe for… Dior Addict Lip Glow Oil, £32

“To be honest, I prefer the Fat Oil to the Dior one,” says Joyce, picking it out as her favourite dupe. 

“It lasted longer on my lips. I didn’t have to top it up as quickly. I like the sheen of it. The colour was lovely,” she raves. 

Sue Moxley, beauty expert 

Sue believes you don’t have to spend a fortune to get quality products – and she’s a fan of “good old” Revlon and L’Oreal. 

Here are her picks… 

Revolution Fix and Glow Setting Spray, £8.99

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Hollywood Flawless Filter, £39

Okay, this isn’t a direct dupe as it’s a setting spray rather than a foundation. But Sue says if you pair this with your favourite foundation, it should give you that “wonderful flawless glow” similar to Flawless Filter. 

She recommends spraying it about 10 inches from your face all over and allowing it to dry for a few minutes. 

NYX Bare With Me Blur Tint Foundation, £9.99

It’s a dupe for… Jones Road What the Foundation, £42

A good alternative to the trending Jones Road foundation is NYX’s Bare With Me, which Sue says “smoothes pores but looks really light and natural”. 

“Apply with a make-up brush all over your face for a professional finish,” she says. 

Lacura Luminous Filter Foundation, £5

It’s a dupe for… Clinique Even Better SPF15 Foundation, £34.50

TikTok went wild for this Aldi dupe, which Sue says is an alternative to the “high end glossy foundations”. 

“It’s such a bargain – it’s definitely up there,” she says. 

She recommends applying all over with a sponge, pressing rather than rubbing into the skin. 

Rimmel Natural Bronzer, £6.99 

It’s a dupe for… Iconic London Kissed By the Sun Bronzer, £25

Sue says this is a light bronzer that “glides on easily with a blusher brush”. 

Swirl it on the hollows of your cheeks, up to your temples, down underneath your jawline and on the bridge of your nose. 

So, how much difference is there between the dupes and the high-end products? 

You might be wondering just how noticeable the difference is if you go for the cheaper alternative. 

It’s a difficult question to answer as it can vary from product to product – and not all the experts we spoke to were in total agreement. 

Sue Moxley says a lot of the lower end budget brands use similar ingredients to their more expensive counterparts. 

“You can get better packaging or the quality of the packaging is better, but it’s also the brand name that is putting the prices up,” she says. 

The high-end brands do put extra ingredients in, she says, but “they don’t warrant the amount of difference in price”. 

“It’s still lovely to go and buy a Chanel lipstick or something and have it in your bag and it makes you feel wonderful. You get it out and it’s gorgeous packaging and you put it on in the restaurant,” she says.

“It does make you feel good, but I do believe that there are products out there that are equivalent in quality and ingredients wise.” 

But Joyce Connor says the high-end brands are often worth it – although she does say you can “mix and match”. 

More expensive brands rarely sell single-ingredient products, she says, and this can make a difference in terms of what you’re getting. 

For example, she says an own-brand hyaluronic acid cream will often have that single ingredient but a similar product from a high-end brand will likely include peptides and ceramides – all providing extra value. 

One item not to skimp on

Joyce says if you’re going to spend money on anything, it should be your moisturiser so you can get a perfect base for your make-up. 

“There are plenty of dupes out there that that are going to be effective as long as you are moisturising,” she says. 

Her pick is the Goldfaden MD Vital Boost Even Skintone Daily Moisturiser – but at £60 for 50ml, that might be a bit much for some. 

As we step into the second half of 2024, analysts’ forecast for has remained increasingly optimistic, with many predicting that gold prices could reach new record-highs by mid-2025, driven by a confluence of factors including central bank purchases, investor demand, and macroeconomic conditions. 

Insights from Citi, TD Securities, and Bank of America show that key drivers behind the bullish outlook for gold prices continue to be strong physical demand, central bank activities and recent investment trends. 

Strong physical demand 

Citi analysts recently noted a slight softening in physical gold demand in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. The investment bank and financial services company, however, pointed out that the softening comes from a very strong base. 

It also emphasized that underlying gold consumption growth remains strong, which could push spot prices towards a record average range of $2,400-$2,600 per ounce in the latter half of the year, as financial investors play catch-up with the physical market. 

Another significant trend that will impact XAU/USD is the decrease in non-monetary gold imports into China, which fell to 137 tons per month in the second quarter from 189 tons per month in the first quarter. 

Despite this decrease, Citi projected a record 1,750 tons of onshore bullion imports for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase and an eightfold rise from 2020 levels. If accurate, this would mean Chinese retail gold imports would represent 47% of global gold mine output in 2024, up from an average of 34% in 2021-2023 and 36% in 2017-2019.

Moreover, official sector demand remains strong. Central bank gold purchases have stabilized at a record 28-30% of gold mine production since 2022, with the potential to rise to 35% in a bullish scenario.

Citi forecasted a record 1,100 tons of central bank gold buying in 2024, with the possibility of exceeding 1,250 tons if bullish conditions prevail. Inflows into gold ETFs are also expected to improve as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle.

Central bank activities 

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) did not purchase gold for a second consecutive month in June 2024, leading to a brief decline in gold prices. However, the Reserve Bank of India, the National Bank of Poland, and the Czech National Bank continued their gold purchases. The buying coming from the central banks of the latter nations helped in stabilizing the market. 

The pause in China’s central bank purchases followed a record high in spot gold prices in May, driven by 18 months of consistent buying from the PBoC and other central banks.

China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June 2024, unchanged from May, while the value of its gold reserves slightly decreased. TD Securities suggested that while the PBoC may be waiting for a price pullback before resuming purchases, other central banks are likely to continue buying, maintaining the overall bullish sentiment in the market. 

The World Gold Council’s survey supported this view, indicating that 29% of central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018.

Gold prices: Future projections and outlook 

Bank of America (BofA) analysts predicted that gold prices could surge to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months. However, they noted that current market flows do not yet support this price point. 

The analysts stressed the need for increased non-commercial demand as they believe a Federal Reserve rate cut could trigger significant inflows into physically backed gold ETFs and higher trading volumes.

Central bank purchases also play a crucial role in BofA’s bullish outlook. The analysts argued that ongoing central bank buying, driven by efforts to reduce the share of USD in foreign exchange portfolios, will support gold prices. Gold’s status as a long-term value store, hedge against inflation, and portfolio diversifier underpin this trend.

BofA’s model considered various factors, including mine output, recycled gold, and jewelry demand. Analysts estimated that non-commercial purchases have supported an average price of $2,200 per ounce year-to-date. 

A substantial increase in investment demand could push prices towards the $3,000 mark. The World Gold Council’s survey aligned with this view, which is also in line with central banks’ intentions to increase their gold reserves which could further drive up prices.

A bullish year ahead for gold

The 2024 outlook for XAU/USD is apparently bullish at the moment, supported by strong physical demand, strong central bank purchases, and potential shifts in monetary policy. 

While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term trend points towards higher gold prices. Analysts from several banking firms note that the critical factors that could drive gold prices to new heights include sustained central bank buying, increased investment demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties.

The interplay between monetary policy, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks will continue to shape the gold market’s trajectory. For now, the consensus appears to be pretty much clear: gold remains a valuable asset in an uncertain world, with the potential for significant gains in the coming months and years.

Confluence of Indicators Point to 2.23 and Lower

There is a confluence of price levels that appear from around 2.23 to 2.17. That is not too much lower than the current retracement low of 2.27. The range provides a potential support area given the confluence of indicators pointing to the price range. Two key levels include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.18 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2.20. Each method is looking to identify a harmonic price level associated with prior swings highs and lows. The target from the ABCD pattern is an extended target using the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio.

Bullish Sentiment Begins to Dominate Above 2.46

An alternative to the bearish scenario unfolds with a rally above Tuesday’s high of 2.45, along with the 200-Day MA at 2.46. An earlier initial indication of strength would be seen in a rally above today’s high of 2.385. However, an advance above 2.385 puts the price of natural gas heading back up into potential resistance around the 200-Day line. And resistance may be seen again.

Once the 200-Day line is exceeded, a potentially significant near-term barrier to a continuation higher is resolved. It would set the stage for a rally up to the 50-Day MA at 2.55 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.61. A little higher will be a price range from around 2.67 to 2.71. That range consists of the 20-Day MA and 50% retracement, respectively.

20-Week MA Further Confirms Support Zone

Regarding the next lower potential support zone, in addition to four price levels that identify the price range there is also confirmation of the range on the higher time frame weekly chart. The 20-Week MA is present on the weekly chart (not shown) at 2.19. Also, the 50-Week MA is a close match with potential resistance around the 200-Day line. It shows potential resistance at 2.49.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

I took about a half off and now I’m still up a little bit, not overly concerned, this is something that I’m playing with no leverage, so it’s not a big deal if I’m down or percent in this position. It’s down 1% of like 3.5% of my portfolio. So again, not something to be overly concerned about. Natural gas is something that I swing trade.

I don’t want short term trade, although I’m the first to admit that a little bit of a bounce would make a certain amount of sense, but we just don’t have a catalyst. We have the CPI and the PPI numbers coming out over the next couple of days. So that could come into the picture. But really, at this point in time, I think the natural gas market is still going to suffer from the one massive problem it’s going to have, probably for years. It’s that natural gas is everywhere. It’s not rare. So, at this point in time, you know, I may add a little bit to a dip. But again, this is such a small part of my portfolio I really don’t care.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

3 Players Profiles
3.1 Power Root
3.1.1 Power Root Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.1.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.1.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.1.4 Business Overview
3.2 Smucker
3.2.1 Smucker Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.2.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.2.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.2.4 Business Overview
3.3 Vinacafe
3.3.1 Vinacafe Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.3.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.3.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.3.4 Business Overview
3.4 The Kraft Heinz
3.4.1 The Kraft Heinz Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.4.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.4.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.4.4 Business Overview
3.5 Starbucks
3.5.1 Starbucks Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.5.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.5.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.5.4 Business Overview
3.6 Trung Nguyen
3.6.1 Trung Nguyen Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.6.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.6.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.6.4 Business Overview
3.7 AMT Coffee
3.7.1 AMT Coffee Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.7.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.7.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.7.4 Business Overview
3.8 Tata Global Beverages
3.8.1 Tata Global Beverages Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.8.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.8.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.8.4 Business Overview
3.9 Maxwell House
3.9.1 Maxwell House Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.9.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.9.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.9.4 Business Overview
3.10 Nestle
3.10.1 Nestle Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.10.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.10.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.10.4 Business Overview
3.11 JDE
3.11.1 JDE Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.11.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.11.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.11.4 Business Overview
3.12 Tchibo Coffee
3.12.1 Tchibo Coffee Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.12.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.12.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.12.4 Business Overview
3.13 Unilever
3.13.1 Unilever Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.13.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.13.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.13.4 Business Overview

Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending July 5, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts had expected a 250,000-barrel draw.

For the week prior, the API reported a surprise 9.163-million-barrel draw in crude inventories.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 500,000 barrels as of July 5. Inventories are now at 373.1 million, up from 372.6 million barrels the previous week. That is the highest level since December 2022, but still short of the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020.

Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday. At 4:17 am ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.06% on the day at $84.84-and up about $1 per barrel from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading down 0.84% on the day at $81.64-down about 0.87% from this time last week.

Gasoline inventories fell by 3 million barrels this week, after last week’s 2.468-million-barrel increase.

The inventory outlier was distillates, which saw a 2.3-million-barrel increase in stockpiles, compared to last week’s 740,009-barrel draw.

Cushing inventories were down 1.2 million barrels this week, according to API data, after rising by 404,000 barrels in the previous week.

On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 demand estimate to 1.11 million barrels per day-up from 1.08 million bpd-while also raising the 2025 estimate from 1.53 mbpd to 1.77 mbpd, noting that the global oil market is heading for a supply deficit next year.

The EIA’s demand upgrade follows the June extension of must OPEC+ output cuts into 2025 to strengthen lagging demand growth.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
• The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
• Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak

Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.

Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.

Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.

Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.

Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.

Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

• Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
• The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
• Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak

Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.

Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.

Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.

Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.

Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.

Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Until Rally Above 200-Day MA

Arguably, the retracement may be complete but there is not enough information yet to make that determination. There remains a lower target zone from 2.23 to 2.17 that has yet to be tested as support. If the 200-Day line continues to reflect resistance, a test of the lower support target becomes more likely. Nevertheless, the bearish scenario begins to soften on a decisive rally above last Tuesday’s high of 2.48. That will put natural gas above the 200-Day line, currently at 2.46. Strength would be confirmed on a daily close above 2.48.

Rally to Test Prior Support at 2.63?

The last breakdown price level was at the swing low of 2.635 (B) from June 24. Therefore, a swing back up to test that price area as resistance may play out if today’s daily bullish reversal can be sustained. Other price levels to watch on an upside move include the 50-Day MA at 2.54, the 38.2% Fibonacci upside retracement at 2.61, and the combined 50% retracement and 20-Day MA at 2.71. Each price area could see resistance on the way up.

Downward Pressure Remains

Given the bearish reaction today when encountering the 200-Day line resistance area, downward pressure remains. Unless there is a decisive rally above the 200-Day line with a daily close above it, the correction is set up to continue. As noted, there is a slightly lower target support zone that is derived from four price levels. Two come from previous support or resistance levels and two are from Fibonacci calculations. Just using the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as a target level is enough. The other levels further confirm the likelihood of a 61.8% retracement prior to the correction being complete.

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This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.

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