XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

Crude oil futures traded flat Wednesday as this week’s rally eased after Department of Energy data indicated soft demand for gasoline last week.

Oil prices were more than 1% higher earlier in the session, but pulled back after the U.S. reported a 3.7 million barrel crude build for last week, compared with analyst expectations of a 1 million barrel draw.

• As expected, gold prices have been trading in a narrow range with a downward bias, settling around $2315 per ounce pending the reaction to key US data and events.
• Gold prices have stabilized after recent strong selling that took them to a one-month low of $2286 per ounce, amid stronger-than-expected US jobs data and a slowdown in the pace of record gold buying by central banks, led by China.

According to currency trading platforms, the US dollar index continued its gains for the third session to 105.3 on Tuesday, its highest level in about a month, as traders reduced their bets on US rate cuts and prepared for the FOMC meeting and key CPI data. After Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, traders now see only a 52.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September, compared with 66.9% a week ago.

Meanwhile, today begins the two-day FOMC meeting, and although the Fed is expected to leave the Fed’s target range for monetary policy unchanged, traders are awaiting hints on when the first-rate cut could be made.

Also, new economic forecasts will be released. Also, the headline CPI and PPI readings are due out this week. Additionally, the dollar likewise benefited from a flight to safety amid political instability in France. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged but is likely to discuss reducing its monthly bond purchases.

On the stock trading platforms front, US stock indexes fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, the Nasdaq down 0.2%, and the Dow down 250 points, after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in the previous session. Traders refrained from making big bets ahead of the CPI report and the start of the two-day FOMC meeting. Furthermore, the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged today, but investors will be looking for more clues about the timing of the first rate cut.

According to US stock trading, utility and energy stocks were the worst-performing sectors, while telecom stocks managed to stay in the green. Megacap stocks were mixed, with Microsoft (-0.2%) and Meta (-0.4%) down, while Nvidia was flat, and Amazon (0.3%) and Alphabet (0.9%) were up. Also, Apple’s stock rose (1.7%) even after the company’s new AI system failed to convince investors. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s stock fell about 2.5%, Tesla fell 1.6%, and Exxon Mobil fell 1.4%.

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

The price of gold is expected to remain stable within its current range until the market and investor reaction to the announcement of U.S. inflation figures and the Federal Reserve’s statement, which significantly and directly impact the performance of the U.S. dollar, and consequently, the price of gold. According to the daily chart performance, the trend is still downward. If gold breaks below the support level of $2,300, it will encourage further bearish movement, targeting the next key support levels at $2,275 and $2,258 per ounce. Conversely, a move towards the resistance level of $2,355 per ounce would empower the bulls to regain control of the trend. 

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

Bull Breakouts Follow Through

Last week natural gas triggered a breakout from a bull pennant trend continuation pattern. The fact that the breakout of the pennant occurred around the same time as a breakout above the long-term downtrend line triggered, makes it more interesting. Trendlines by themselves are not too reliable as a signal, but this breakout is more interesting because of the pennant. The pennant consolidation formed near resistance and therefore the two breakouts are starting the next leg up rather than triggering a breakout further into an advance when momentum is more likely to die off following a breakout.

Bullish Confirmation Signs

Further supporting bullish evidence includes the recent bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 200-Day MA, and a successful test of support at the 20-Day line recently. If natural gas can eventually exceed the 2023 high at 3.64, further confirmation of a bullish reversal will be indicated. Further, a rally above the next swing high of 3.39 and daily close above that price level, improves the chance that the 2023 high may be exceeded. The monthly chart also reflects improving demand in natural gas as the 20-Month MA was exceeded this month for the first time since natural gas fell below it in December 2022.

Pennant Targets 3.78

There are several interim targets on the way to the calculated target from the pennant pattern starting with the 88.6% retracement. The pennant structure provides a potential target of 3.78. That is above the 2023 peak of 3.64. Nevertheless, it is still a way away and the target may never get hit. If the 3.18 to 3.20 price zone is exceeded, January swings high at 3.39, followed by the 2023 high at 3.64 become targets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,307.17

• Financial markets maintained a cautious stance ahead of upcoming US events.
• Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement and US inflation coming up next.
• XAU/USD under selling pressure near $2,300, bearish breakout around the corner.

Spot Gold retreated from an intraday high of $2,319.79, with XAU/USD now trading below $2,310.00. Financial markets maintained the wait-and-see stance throughout Tuesday, as the macroeconomic calendar had nothing relevant to offer, and with first-tier events coming on Wednesday. Asian and European shares finished the day in the red and weighed on American indexes, which maintained the US Dollar on the winning side amid prevalent risk-aversion.

Investors await to hear from United States (US) policymakers, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is undergoing a two-day meeting and will announce the outcome on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely anticipated to keep the Fed funds rate at the current rate of 5.25%-5.50%, and a rate cut is not seen until September at the earliest. Inflation has ticked marginally higher in the first quarter of the year, while the labor market remains tight, pushing the Federal Reserve (Fed) into maintaining a hawkish stance.

Ahead of the FOMC announcement, the country will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen up 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY, the latter matching the April reading. The figures tend to impact the FX board, despite the Fed’s preference to look at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index when making monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that bears retain control. The Momentum indicator bounced within negative levels, advancing but below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims to resume its slide at around 44. At the same time, the pair is trading below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the current level.

In the near term, according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. A firmly bearish 20 SMA cap advances while extending its slide below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Finally, technical indicators gain downward traction between negative levels, although not strong enough to suggest a break below the recent lows.

Support levels: 2,300.00 2,286.60 2,272.90

Resistance levels: 2,315.50 2,328.40 2,342.35

XAU/USD Current price: $2,307.17

• Financial markets maintained a cautious stance ahead of upcoming US events.
• Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement and US inflation coming up next.
• XAU/USD under selling pressure near $2,300, bearish breakout around the corner.

Spot Gold retreated from an intraday high of $2,319.79, with XAU/USD now trading below $2,310.00. Financial markets maintained the wait-and-see stance throughout Tuesday, as the macroeconomic calendar had nothing relevant to offer, and with first-tier events coming on Wednesday. Asian and European shares finished the day in the red and weighed on American indexes, which maintained the US Dollar on the winning side amid prevalent risk-aversion.

Investors await to hear from United States (US) policymakers, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is undergoing a two-day meeting and will announce the outcome on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely anticipated to keep the Fed funds rate at the current rate of 5.25%-5.50%, and a rate cut is not seen until September at the earliest. Inflation has ticked marginally higher in the first quarter of the year, while the labor market remains tight, pushing the Federal Reserve (Fed) into maintaining a hawkish stance.

Ahead of the FOMC announcement, the country will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen up 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY, the latter matching the April reading. The figures tend to impact the FX board, despite the Fed’s preference to look at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index when making monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that bears retain control. The Momentum indicator bounced within negative levels, advancing but below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims to resume its slide at around 44. At the same time, the pair is trading below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the current level.

In the near term, according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. A firmly bearish 20 SMA cap advances while extending its slide below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Finally, technical indicators gain downward traction between negative levels, although not strong enough to suggest a break below the recent lows.

Support levels: 2,300.00 2,286.60 2,272.90

Resistance levels: 2,315.50 2,328.40 2,342.35

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today. The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024-an increase of 2% from 2023 levels. The EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.7 million bpd in 2025.

The increase in production will be led by the Permian, according to the EIA, and Eagle Ford.

This production outlook remains unchanged from the May version of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Meanwhile, weekly U.S. crude oil production data published by the Energy Administration Information has held at an average of13.1 million barrels per day every week for the last twelve weeks.

For their global oil production outlook, the EIA sees OPEC+ largely adhering to its production targets announced earlier this month. While OPEC+ extended its production cuts, “our expectation is that OPEC+ crude oil production will follow these new targets until 2025. At that time, we expect that some OPEC+ producers will keep production below the targets in an effort to limit global oil inventory builds,” the EIA said in its report.

While crude oil production forecasts have held steady, pricing forecasts have not. In terms of pricing, the EIA is now forecasting Brent crude oil prices to average $84 per barrel in 2024, up from an average of $82 per barrel in 2023 and $101 per barrel in 2022. The EIA’s previous report forecast 2024 Brent spot pricing at $88.

For next year, the EIA held its Brent price forecast steady at $85 per barrel.

For natural gas, the report anticipates Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024-steady on 2023 levels but up from the $2.20/MMBtu forecasted for 2024 last month, with the agency forecasting U.S. marketed natural gas production increasing by 2% next year. For 2025, the EIA anticipates $3.20/MMBtu for natural gas.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Here are today’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate July contract: $77.93 per barrel, up 25 cents or 0.32%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 8.9%.
• Brent August contract: $82.02 per barrel, up 39 cents, or 0.48%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 6.5%.
• RBOB Gasoline July contract: $2.41 per gallon, up 0.33%. Year to date, gasoline is up 15%.
• Natural Gas July contract: $3.05 per thousand cubic feet, up 5%. Year to date, gas has advanced 21%.

OPEC is projecting oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day for 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025, according to the group’s monthly report. The oil producers see global economic growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2025.

OPEC expects the services sector to maintain stable momentum and drive economic growth in the second half of the year, “particularly supported by travel and tourism, with a consequent positive impact on oil demand.”

John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said traders appeared to be “buying the dip” after many investors abandoned their long positions in the wake of the OPEC+ production decision.

“After oil prices experienced a bearish confluence of events, shook out much length and toyed with being oversold, there is almost an inevitability in the rally back to current levels,” Evans said in a note.

Money managers cut their net long position in Brent by 69% week over week to the lowest level since 2014 in the wake of the OPEC+ decision, according to JPMorgan.

Despite the bearish sentiment last week, Goldman Sachs forecast the market will enter into a deficit on summer fuel demand that will push Brent back up to $86 per barrel in the third quarter.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said “the market seemed to awaken” to the fact that the world is “sleepwalking into a global oil supply deficit” given OPEC’s production cuts remain in place for now and rig counts are falling in the U.S.

Traders are looking ahead to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation data for May on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency will release its monthly oil market report the same day.