Created on April 20, 2025

• WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend near the 63.500 mark before the long holiday weekend began. The price from a mid and long-term perspective looks low, but after suffering values which challenged the 55.000 level and below on the 9th of March, the higher realm now looks like a technical accomplishment.
• Sentiment in WTI Crude Oil is clearly being effected by nervous conditions in the broad markets, which fear potential implications of tariffs from the U.S White House and the possibility this could trigger less demand for energy.
• Following this long holiday weekend WTI Crude Oil will battle tariff shadows again, but the move higher produced last week which showed that support is near the 60.000 level might be a sign some large traders are feeling a bit more optimistic about their outlooks. However, news developments will continue to be heard and day traders should brace for sudden shifts in sentiment which could be seen.

The current price in WTI Crude Oil is certainly within the lower part of its long-term track record. Any prices below the 66.000 USD level can be thought to be rather low in the commodity. Before the onslaught of selling which erupted in the first week of April due to concerns about Trump tariff policies, WTI Crude Oil was flirting with nearly 72.000 USD per barrel.

Day traders need to remain cautious in WTI Crude Oil and all commodities in the coming days, there is still a lot of dynamic influence large players could cause. Looking for higher prices in WTI Crude Oil which are not overly ambitious may feel correct, but speculators should keep their targets realistic and watch the broad markets like equity indices as a barometer. If prices climb above 64.000 USD early this week and sustain higher values this would be a sign large players are still focusing on further price recovery.

The current price of WTI Crude Oil is certainly within the lowest aspects of its long-term range. A look at six month and one year charts show that anything below the $66.000 level looks relatively cheap.

• However, for the $66.000 level to be achieved it will mean that optimistic impetus will somehow have to be triggered in WTI Crude Oil, and for the moment that still feels like it is wishful thinking.
• Day traders need to look at technical charts from the past week and consider the potential that a range between 62.500 and 64.500 may be a lower trading realm which will prove durable for the moment.
• Yet, there is always the possibility for a change of attitudes being driven by large speculative trades, and positive rhetoric from the White House.

WTI Crude Oil has been hit with volatility because it is one of the key commodities in the global economy. If tariff implications continue to be debated without clarity for solutions, large traders may remain nervous. However, the ability of the commodity to ebb higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week before the long holiday weekend may indicate traders were a bit less nervous.

Day traders should watch the first handful of hours in WTI Crude Oil as it begins to trade this week to gauge behavioral sentiment. The broad markets and the energy sector remain in fragile price ranges. Although some recovery of value was demonstrated last week, conditions are not abundantly optimistic. A wagering environment may continue to hold the power in the coming days as a tendency for optimistic outlooks fights with potential calls of retaliatory actions by some nations being confronted by U.S tariffs.

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High Hits Projected Target

The high for the week was a successful test of resistance at the 200% projection of a rising ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 lows. It was also in the region of $3,335, which is the 261.8% extension for the bearish correction that began from the 2011 peak. Both price levels are derived from long-term patterns. So far, the targets seem to be recognized by the market. But given the sustained signs of strength, the quickening uptrend may continue.

Global Uncertainty and Gold’s Rise

Gold has benefited from rising global uncertainty and it may continue to do so. Therefore, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $3,358, has gold next targeting the $3,383 price zone as that is the 127.2% projection for a rising ABCD pattern (purple) that began from the February swing low (A). Then, a little higher is the projection for a recent small bull pennant pattern that triggered on Wednesday at $3,454. The 161.8% projection for the rising ABCD pattern is then at $3,498.

Strength Retained but Short-term Risk Remains

Although the rising angle of ascent in the price of gold is a sign of strong and growing demand, it also indicates that the trend may be extended with the risk of a correction increasing. The top of two rising trend channels were broken recently. Subsequently, a pullback to test support around the prior trend high of $3,246 and near potential support of a top channel line, would be normal and retain the near-term bullish outlook for gold. However, a decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,208 could lead to a deeper pullback.

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Bear Trend Intact

Following a lower swing high of $4.25 on March 3, the bearish correction from the recent peak of $4.90 accelerated to the downside. This can be seen as the price of natural gas was rejected from the top of the channel. It then fell back below the 50-Day MA and then the midline (green dashes) of a falling trend channel as highlighted in red. The original channel is bound by blue trendlines, and a 25% extension was added to the bottom with a green lower line.

Over the past several days resistance was successfully tested around the lower blue channel line, and it has held up so far. Once prior support becomes resistance, the downtrend may be ready to continue. In summary, these are bearish signs. Natural gas remains in a clear downtrend and bearish momentum has been increasing.

Sitting on Potential Reversal Zone

Despite the overall bearish indications, natural gas is in a position that could lead to a bullish reversal. A potential support zone around the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of $3.21 has been tested as support for several days and again on Thursday with a new retracement low of $3.19. It continues to indicate support even though there is a recent series of lower daily lows and is supported by the lower end of the descending channel. Now, on Thursday an outside day was produced as a new trend low was reached earlier in the session followed by a rise above Wednesday’s high.

Strength Signaled Above $3.33

A bullish breakout and possible one-day bullish reversal will trigger on a rally above $3.33. The first stop on the way up looks to be a recent interim lower swing high from Monday. Further up is the 20-Day MA, now at $3.73, followed by another lower swing high at $3.83. Subsequently, the 50-Day MA may indicate signs of resistance. It is now at $3.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bearish Sentiment Dominates

Despite downward pressure, natural gas will complete an outside day as there was an advance above Wednesday’s high of $3.32 to $3.33 today. Recent highs indicate that the market seems to be recognizing the declining channel lines. Although natural gas continues to show weakness as it may end the day at its lower daily closing price for the corrective decline, which previously was $3.27 from Wednesday, it may close today below the lower boundary line of the original channel (blue lines).

Optimism May Return Above $3.33

Nevertheless, a decisive rally above Thursday’s high of $3.33 triggers a one-day bullish reversal and reclaims the lower end of the original channel. A daily close above today’s high would then be needed to confirm strength. There are two initial potential upside targets, while the middle green dashed line of the channel can help as a guide. The first upside target is the most recent interim lower swing high at $3.61, followed by the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.73. Keep in mind that since the 20-Day line is falling it may reach the area around the $3.61 level or lower before it is tested as resistance.

Lower Support Zone Starts at $3.19

On the downside, if natural gas continues to fall below $3.19 and keeps going, there are several reasons that support may be seen within a range of $3.08 to $2.99. The potentially significant 200-Day MA is within that range at $3.06 currently.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.