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25 05, 2024

XAU/USD Rebounds Amid Retreating Rate Cut Hopes

By |2024-05-25T07:56:24+03:00May 25, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


After two consecutive red days, Gold price (XAU/USD) slightly recovered on Friday. This rebound comes after a 5% correction in bullion after it refreshed its all-time high earlier this week. On the weekly timeframe, the globally preferred store of value is down 3.02%.

Similar price action can be observed in Silver, which showed a 0.98% uptick on Friday after two consecutive daily declines of 3.75% and 2.09%, respectively. The bearish market sentiment in the precious metals comes just days after Gold and Silver hit their fresh yearly highs.

XAU/USD Tumbles After FOMC Minutes

Bullion prices are strongly correlated to the US monetary policy. Therefore, the ongoing Gold price action can be linked to the recently released FOMC minutes which drastically lowered the rate cut expectations. As a result, the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased, and most analysts are now betting on the Fed starting to cut rates in November.

Since the high rates will likely keep the dollar strong in the coming months, the interest in non-yielding assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin will likely be impacted. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs economists have also pushed back their rate cut expectations from July to September, contributing to the bearish outlook.

Gold Price Outlook And Latest Technical Analysis

From the perspective of technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is looking extremely bullish on the high timeframe as it soared to record highs on May 20. However, the yellow metal could still face more correction in the shorter timeframes.

Even though the Gold price forecast remains positive, the price has been trading within the $2,290-$2,430 range since the mid of April. A recent failed breakout attempt shows that there is not enough demand for bullion above $2,430, which is acting as a strong resistance to the price.

The recent price action suggests that the price is heading for a retest of the range lows around $2,290. This level is a strong support level that must be held to avoid a deeper correction. On the other hand, bulls need to find strength above the $2,430 level to aim for a significant upside and new all-time highs.



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25 05, 2024

Crude Oil News Today: Fed Concerns Weigh Despite Robust US Fuel Demand

By |2024-05-25T01:53:38+03:00May 25, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Benchmark Price Performance

Brent crude futures settled at their lowest level since February, while U.S. crude futures hit a three-month low on Thursday. Brent futures are heading for a weekly decline of over 3%, and WTI futures are poised for nearly a 4% drop from last week. The anticipation of ‘higher-for-longer rates’ has put significant pressure on oil prices this week.

Federal Reserve’s Influence

Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policymakers debating whether current interest rates are sufficient to control inflation. Some officials expressed willingness to increase borrowing costs if inflation rises further. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have indicated that further rate hikes are unlikely. Higher rates could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.

U.S. Fuel Demand

Strengthening U.S. gasoline demand ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend has helped stabilize prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline demand reached its highest level since November. This seasonal uptick is significant as U.S. drivers represent about a tenth of global oil demand, making the summer driving season a crucial factor for global demand recovery, according to ANZ analysts.

OPEC+ Meeting

Attention is now on OPEC+ and their upcoming meeting to decide on extending voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). The meeting, initially scheduled for June 1 in Vienna, has been moved online to June 2. OPEC+ has implemented cuts totaling 5.86 million bpd since late 2022, equivalent to about 5.7% of daily global demand. Sources suggest an extension of these cuts is likely, despite rising output from the U.S. and other non-member producers.

Market Forecast

Considering the economic backdrop and supply decisions, the market outlook is bearish. While the firm U.S. gasoline demand offers some support, the persistent concerns over interest rates and potential further Fed actions are likely to weigh on prices. Traders should prepare for further declines in the short term, influenced by macroeconomic constraints and OPEC+ decisions.

Technical Analysis



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24 05, 2024

Gold Prices Forecast: Bearish Week as XAU/USD Tumbles Amid Fed’s Hawkish Tone

By |2024-05-24T15:49:04+03:00May 24, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Fed’s Hawkish Stance

The minutes from the May meeting revealed the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates, with policymakers expressing concern about inflation and indicating potential further rate hikes. This hawkish tone drove up Treasury yields and strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The price action this week shows that the metals have reacted noticeably to the Fed’s position.

Impact of Higher Rates on Gold

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no yield. The Fed’s minutes reflected a commitment to maintaining the current benchmark rate of 5.25%-5.50%, with some officials willing to consider additional hikes if inflation pressures persist. Despite the Fed’s confidence that inflation will eventually return to the 2% target, the timeline is now expected to be longer than initially thought.

Market Reactions

Following the release of the Fed minutes, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, and traders adjusted their expectations for rate cuts this year. The rate-futures market now shows only even odds of more than one rate cut in 2024. Fed officials have tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more consistent inflation data before changing the current policy stance.

External Factors

While the Fed’s policy is a significant factor, external elements also play a role in gold’s performance. Chinese reserve buying remains strong, though the pace has slowed, providing some support to gold prices. The gold/silver ratio’s recent drop suggests that momentum might shift back in favor of gold, potentially limiting further losses.

Market Forecast

Given the Fed’s hawkish outlook and the potential for further rate hikes, gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term. However, continued demand from major buyers like China could offer some support, keeping losses in check. Traders should brace for a bearish outlook in the near term but monitor demand closely.

Technical Analysis



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24 05, 2024

Crude oil price chart 2024

By |2024-05-24T07:44:01+03:00May 24, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


On May 20, 2024, the Brent crude oil price stood at 83.7 U.S. dollars per barrel, compared to 79.8 U.S. dollars for WTI oil and 84.51 U.S. dollars for the OPEC basket. Europe’s Brent crude oil, the U.S. WTI crude oil, and OPEC’s basket are three of the most important benchmarks used by traders as reference for oil and gasoline prices. The increase noted in April 2024 reflected uncertainty over growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Lowest ever oil prices during coronavirus pandemic

In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in crude oil prices hitting a major slump as oil demand drastically declined following lockdowns and travel restrictions. Initial outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the course of the pandemic brought about a disagreement between two of the largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, in early March. Bilateral talks between global oil producers ended in agreement on April 13th, with promises to cut petroleum output and hopes rising that these might help stabilize the oil price in the coming weeks. However, with storage facilities and oil tankers quickly filling up, fears grew over where to store excess oil, leading to benchmark prices seeing record negative prices between April 20 and April 22, 2020.

How crude oil prices are determined

As with most commodities, crude oil prices are impacted by supply and demand, as well as inventories and market sentiment. However, as oil is most often traded in future contracts (whereby a contract is agreed upon, while the product delivery will follow in the next two to three months), market speculation is one of the principal determinants for oil prices. Traders make conclusion on how production output and consumer demand will likely develop over the coming months, leaving room for uncertainty. Spot prices differ from futures in so far as they reflect the current market price of a commodity.



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24 05, 2024

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Faces Increased Selling Pressure

By |2024-05-24T01:40:23+03:00May 24, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Chance for Bearish Continuation is Increasing

The chance for a continuation of the bear trend is increasing. Recent failed attempts to breakout above the 200-Day MA, the more significant trend indicator, have failed and we’re now seeing increasing signs of weakness. The week ends tomorrow and unless the bulls take back control crude oil is set to end the week with a bearish candlestick pattern.

A bear trend continuation signal will be given on a drop below last week’s low of 76.83. Last month’s low of 76.86 was already busted once earlier this month. A drop below that low will provide a second monthly bearish signal. The next lower target zone includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 75.49, along with the bottom trend channel line. Further down is the 78.6% retracement at 72.11.

Rallies Will Again Deal with Solid Resistance Zone

On the upside, a rally above today’s high of 79.14 sets up another test of trendlines and moving average as resistance. One thing to consider is that when multiple lines identify a similar price zone, it becomes more significant. For crude oil, that significance may be experienced as strong resistance leading to a bearish continuation, or a key pivot where an upside breakout may trigger strong momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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23 05, 2024

XAU/USD extends slide below $2,350.00

By |2024-05-23T23:39:02+03:00May 23, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


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XAU/USD Current price: $2,344.77

  • The US Dollar benefits from upbeat United States data, risk-off mood.
  • Hawkish FOMC meeting Minutes suggest rate cuts won’t come until September.
  • XAU/USD is pressuring a critical Fibonacci support and bears an aim for lower lows.

Spot Gold kept falling on Thursday, with XAU/USD trading as low as $2,340.28 at the beginning of the American session. The bright metal is sharply down for a second consecutive week, with the US Dollar initially taking advantage of hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes. The document, released on Wednesday, showed officials expressed concerns about the lack of progress towards their goal of 2% but still believe inflation would ease. A rate cut, however, seems unlikely before September. The announcement weighed on stock markets, pushing Wall Street into a negative close.

The US Dollar further advanced on Thursday following the release of upbeat United States (US) data. The country reported  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 17 declined to 215K from the previous 223K, while better than the 220K expected. Furthermore, S&P Global released the preliminary estimates of the May Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs), which showed business activity growth accelerated sharply to its fastest for just over two years in May, according to provisional data. The  Composite PMI improved to 54.4 from 51.3 in April, while the Manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.9 after printing 50 in the previous month. Finally, the services index jumped to 54.8, its highest in a year.

Finally, Wall Street opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing roughly 0.70%, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite hold into the green.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally between $2,277.20 and the record peak at $2,449.92, at $2,344.70. Technical readings in the daily chart show the momentum remains strong, as indicators extended their sharp slides, with the Momentum holding above its 100 line but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator piercing its midline and supporting another leg south. At the same time, XAU/USD is battling with a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north far below the current level.

The risk skews to the downside in the near term. XAU/USD trades below all its moving averages in the 4-hour chart, with the 20 SMA turning firmly south, well above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators maintain their downward slopes at fresh April lows and without signs of bearish exhaustion despite entering oversold readings.

Support levels: 2,340.20 2,323.70 2,307.10

Resistance levels: 2,354.20 2,372.90 2,384.15

XAU/USD Current price: $2,344.77

  • The US Dollar benefits from upbeat United States data, risk-off mood.
  • Hawkish FOMC meeting Minutes suggest rate cuts won’t come until September.
  • XAU/USD is pressuring a critical Fibonacci support and bears an aim for lower lows.

Spot Gold kept falling on Thursday, with XAU/USD trading as low as $2,340.28 at the beginning of the American session. The bright metal is sharply down for a second consecutive week, with the US Dollar initially taking advantage of hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes. The document, released on Wednesday, showed officials expressed concerns about the lack of progress towards their goal of 2% but still believe inflation would ease. A rate cut, however, seems unlikely before September. The announcement weighed on stock markets, pushing Wall Street into a negative close.

The US Dollar further advanced on Thursday following the release of upbeat United States (US) data. The country reported  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 17 declined to 215K from the previous 223K, while better than the 220K expected. Furthermore, S&P Global released the preliminary estimates of the May Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs), which showed business activity growth accelerated sharply to its fastest for just over two years in May, according to provisional data. The  Composite PMI improved to 54.4 from 51.3 in April, while the Manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.9 after printing 50 in the previous month. Finally, the services index jumped to 54.8, its highest in a year.

Finally, Wall Street opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing roughly 0.70%, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite hold into the green.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally between $2,277.20 and the record peak at $2,449.92, at $2,344.70. Technical readings in the daily chart show the momentum remains strong, as indicators extended their sharp slides, with the Momentum holding above its 100 line but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator piercing its midline and supporting another leg south. At the same time, XAU/USD is battling with a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north far below the current level.

The risk skews to the downside in the near term. XAU/USD trades below all its moving averages in the 4-hour chart, with the 20 SMA turning firmly south, well above the current level. At the same time, technical indicators maintain their downward slopes at fresh April lows and without signs of bearish exhaustion despite entering oversold readings.

Support levels: 2,340.20 2,323.70 2,307.10

Resistance levels: 2,354.20 2,372.90 2,384.15



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23 05, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to Power Higher

By |2024-05-23T21:37:42+03:00May 23, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


I like the idea of buying dips, and I still have some of my ETF position, so I’m happy. I just would rather find more value because I did close out half of my ETF position, at about 240 or 245, and therefore I think this surge higher most certainly will be followed by people trying to support the market.

But you need a pullback at this point to find any value. Yes, short term momentum players may push this market higher. And yes, temperatures in America have been hotter than expected. But really, at the end of the day, natural gas is a completely abundant resource that is not hard to find. I actually live in an area that is flooded with natural gas.

So I know of what I speak, and therefore I never really trust these moves for anything more than a short term trade. Whether or not we can sustain the upward pressure remains to be seen, but right now I would not bet on it. What I am looking for is a pullback to take advantage of, and I’ll add my ETF position because as you know leverage in this market is very dangerous.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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23 05, 2024

Analysts are out with their updated copper prices forecast for 2024  By Investing.com

By |2024-05-23T19:36:40+03:00May 23, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Following the recent rally, the spotlight is on , and analysts have been busy assessing their forecasts for copper prices, reflecting a complex set of factors from supply constraints and geopolitical factors to evolving demand trends in various sectors.

Copper prices rally

While copper prices slumped on Wednesday, the metal has experienced a significant rally over the past couple of months, with prices hitting record highs on Monday this week. 

Copper, which is a vital industrial metal whose price movements have significant implications for global markets and industries, hit an intraday record of  $5.1990 a pound or $11,460 a tonne. This year, copper is up 27%. 

The rally was fueled in part by traders betting on a soft supply of the metal in the coming months as miners’ production cuts began to take effect. 

Copper prices forecast for 2024

Despite the rally, analysts at Citi believe the price of copper is set to consolidate over the next three to six months.

The bank’s forecast for a stabilisation in prices comes with LME prices currently trading close to their zero to three-month point price target of $10,500 a ton after reaching their six to 12-month target of $11k a ton last week.

Citi believes “investors have been right to push copper up from $8-8.5k/t to $10.5k/t over the past 3-4 months.”

However, they explained they think machines are likely a large share of the ~$30bn of copper fund length additions this year. 

“In the coming months, some of this length is likely to turn over to consumer hedgers, along with macro and commodity-specific hedge funds, for whom we consider sub-$10k/t as inexpensive,” said Citi.”Indeed, physical indicators (such as visible inventories, spreads and premiums) aren’t going to look great for some time as China semi-fabricators de-stock refined metal and as global scrap dealers de-stock scrap.”

The current price levels are seen as sufficient to avoid huge deficits in the copper market this year as the scrap market responds.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts believe pricing expectations are overshooting the fundamentals while copper stocks are currently trading at fair value. 

“Copper has been on a tear thus far this year, rising 27% YTD amid what we view as relatively overdone refined supply-side concerns,” said JPMorgan. “This has translated into strong re-rating for copper-levered stocks FCX (+20% YTD) and TECK (+24%) with near-term investor sentiment now seemingly more bearish relative to the start of the year.”

“Pricing sentiment appears to have overshot underlying fundamentals, which are more sound than recent pricing momentum infers, largely driven by resilient China refined supply and seemingly elastic demand,” they add.

The bank also notes that the latest copper forward curve now exceeds both their base case and JPM’s Commodities team’s copper price forecast through the remainder of the year and into next year, suggesting further upside potential should bullish expectations materialize.





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23 05, 2024

Silver Prices Forecast: Fed Inflation Worries Keep Rates High, Impacting XAG/USD

By |2024-05-23T17:35:43+03:00May 23, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Fed’s Inflation Concerns

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 30-May 1 revealed heightened concerns about persistent inflation. Policymakers expressed uncertainty about when to start reducing interest rates, citing recent data showing inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes noted that while inflation had eased over the past year, there had been no further progress in recent months.

Potential for Further Tightening

The FOMC’s minutes highlighted the possibility of additional tightening if inflation risks escalate. Some officials indicated a readiness to increase rates should inflationary pressures intensify. Despite this, key figures like Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Christopher Waller suggested that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term.

Current Economic Indicators

The committee unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark short-term borrowing rate at 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level since July 2023. Recent data shows incremental progress on inflation, with the April consumer price index at 3.4% annually, down slightly from March. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was at 3.6%, the lowest since April 2021. Despite these improvements, consumer sentiment surveys, such as those from the University of Michigan and the New York Fed, reflect growing concern over economic conditions.

Inflation Risks and Consumer Impact

Fed officials acknowledged several upside risks to inflation, particularly from geopolitical factors. They also noted the financial strain on lower-income households, who are increasingly relying on credit cards and buy-now-pay-later services, leading to higher delinquency rates. The minutes underscored the importance of maintaining economic growth while managing inflation expectations.

Market Expectations for Rate Cuts

Public statements from Fed officials since the meeting have been cautious. Governor Waller emphasized the need for consistent positive data before considering rate cuts. Chair Powell echoed the sentiment, stressing patience in letting restrictive policies take effect. Market expectations for rate cuts have adjusted, with futures pricing indicating a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, though the likelihood of a second cut in December has decreased to just over 50%.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Given the Fed’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates and ongoing inflation concerns, silver prices are likely to face continued downward pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data and Fed communications for further insights into rate policy and its impact on silver markets.



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23 05, 2024

Gold Prices Forecast: XAU/USD Drops on Profit Taking and Fed Minutes

By |2024-05-23T15:34:13+03:00May 23, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Fed Minutes Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s minutes revealed that officials are not in a hurry to reduce rates. Several members even questioned if the current high rates were sufficient to curb inflation. The minutes noted that net long positions held by investors in gold were near their highest level in over three years, reflecting a lack of confidence that the Fed will cut rates more than once in 2024.

Disinflation Expectations

Despite acknowledging some uncertainty, Fed officials maintained their expectation that inflation would eventually return to the 2% target. They emphasized that disinflation could take longer than previously anticipated. The policy response, for now, involves keeping the Fed’s benchmark rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range, though officials expressed a willingness to tighten further if inflation risks materialize.

Market Reactions

Following the minutes’ release, U.S. Treasury yields edged up, and traders reduced their bets on significant Fed rate cuts this year. The minutes indicated an emerging debate on the actual tightness of the current monetary policy, a crucial factor in determining how quickly inflation can be reduced to the 2% target. Some Fed officials have since downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, projecting a stable rate environment until at least September.

Physical Demand for Gold

Physical demand for gold has remained strong since 2021. However, high prices may deter discretionary buying. Gold prices have increased by 14.5% this year, driven by a rally from March to May. In India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, high prices could lead to a nearly 20% decline in imports in 2024, as consumers opt to exchange old jewelry instead of purchasing new items.

Market Forecast: Bearish

Given the Fed’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates for a prolonged period and the resulting profit-taking in the gold market, the short-term outlook for gold prices appears bearish. Traders should prepare for potential further declines as the market adjusts to the Fed’s policy signals and the ongoing uncertainty regarding inflation control.

Technical Analysis



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