XAU/USD Current price: $2,840.28

• Relief headlines related to US President Trump’s tariffs helped to lift the mood.
• The JOLTS Job Openings report stood at 7.6 million in December.
• XAU/USD is overbought, but the record rally is far from over.

Spot Gold keeps reaching all-time highs on a daily basis, with XAU/USD hitting $2,845.54 on Tuesday and trading nearby in the mid-American session. The risk-averse environment triggered by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled demand for the bright metal. Relief headlines on that front, however, put mild pressure on the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the American session opening, further pushing XAU/USD north.

After pushing tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada over the weekend, US President Trump postponed applying levies for 30 days to both neighbouring countries after the respective governments committed to increasing their border security with the US. Meanwhile, China announced retaliatory tariffs, although those won’t come into effect in the upcoming days, which means China and the US may strike a deal before trade tensions escalate.

Financial markets are clearly in a better mood, with most global indexes posting gains. Wall Street stands in the green, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way up.

Additionally, the US published the December Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that the number of job openings on the last day of December stood at 7.6 million, down from the 8.09 million posted in November and below the 8 million anticipated. The news put additional pressure on the USD ahead of the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The US is expected to have added 170K new jobs in January, down from the 256K gained in December. The figure, despite softer, still hints at a strong labor market. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD pressures the upper end of the ascendant channel, coming from the January 6 low at $2,614.44, indicating the bullish run may continue in the upcoming days. The pair is overbought according to technical readings in the daily chart, although the Momentum indicator has turned flat. At the same time, Gold develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north far above the longer ones, currently at around $2,735.90.

Gold is set to keep rallying in the near term. The 4-hour shows approaches to a bullish 20 SMA attract buyers and result in higher highs, suggesting buyers are willing to add on dips. The 100 and 200 SMAs gain upward traction below the shorter one, also in line with the dominant upward strength. Finally, technical indicators aim north, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator entering overbought territory.

Support levels: 2,828.90 2,812.60 2,800.00

Resistance levels: 2,845.60 2,860.00 2,875.00

• Silver climbs back closer to over a one-month high retested the previous day.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Any meaningful corrective slide might now be seen as a buying opportunity. 

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and sticks to its positive bias, above mid-$31.00s through the first half of the European session. The white metal, however, lacks follow-through and remains below the $31.70-$31.75 barrier, or its highest level since December 12 retested on Monday. 

From a technical perspective, last week’s breakout through the $31.00 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October-December fall and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – was seen as a key trigger for bulls. Apart from this, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. 

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $31.70-$31.75 immediate resistance before positioning for any further gains. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $32.00 mark and test the next relevant hurdle near the $32.30-$32.40 area, nearing the 61.8% Fibo. level. The momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the $33.00 round-figure mark. 

On the flip side, the $31.10-$31.00 confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate slide further towards the $30.25 support zone. This is followed by the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt aggressive technical selling and drag the white metal to the $29.55 region en route to the $29.00 mark.

Silver daily chart

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold price shows slight bearish bias, noticing that this decline is confined within minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, breaching 2821.00$ will provide good positive motive that supports the expectations of continuing the bullish trend in the upcoming period.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for today unless breaking 2810.00$ and holding below it, reminding you that our next main target is located at 2850.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2800.00$ support and 2850.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Forex pairs & markets covered in this week’s weekly forex forecast & forex analysis:

USD (DXY), EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD.

Crude Oil, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY.

Gold Analysis – XAU/USD and Silver Analysis – XAG/USD.

The GBPUSD price attempted to break 1.2415$ but it returns to consolidate above it, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid for today, which depends on the price stability above this level, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, reminding you that our main waited target is located at 1.2605$.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2350$ support and 1.2510$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price approached the MA55 yesterday at 955.00$, affected by the frequent stability below 983.00$ barrier that formed solid obstacle against the attempts to resume the bullish attack recently.

We expect to witness mixed trades now, noting that stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum might push the price to suffer additional losses by crawling towards 940.00$, while succeeding to surpass the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the chances of renewing the bullish attack, to target 1005.00$ as a next station.

The expected trading range for today is between 940.00$ and 983.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price approached the MA55 yesterday at 955.00$, affected by the frequent stability below 983.00$ barrier that formed solid obstacle against the attempts to resume the bullish attack recently.

We expect to witness mixed trades now, noting that stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum might push the price to suffer additional losses by crawling towards 940.00$, while succeeding to surpass the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the chances of renewing the bullish attack, to target 1005.00$ as a next station.

The expected trading range for today is between 940.00$ and 983.00$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Brent oil price broke 77.05$ level clearly and declined strongly to reach the thresholds of 75.66$ level, and by taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completes forming head and shoulders’ pattern that its confirmation line located at 76.00$, which means that breaking this level will put the price under additional negative pressure that we expect to push the price to suffer new losses that start by visiting 74.00$ areas and extend to 72.50$.

Therefore, we expect the domination of the bearish trend on the upcoming trades, taking into consideration that breaching 77.05$ will stop the current bearish wave and lead the price to start recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 74.50$ support and 77.50$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price off record highs, consolidates recent gains above $2,800 early Tuesday.    
• The US Dollar demand attempts a rebound in sync with US Treasury bond yields.
• US President Trump delays tariffs on Mexico and Canada, not on China.
• Overbought conditions on the daily chart caution Gold buyers ahead of US jobs data.

Gold price has entered a consolidative mode above $2,800 early Tuesday, slightly off all-time highs of $2,831 reached on Monday. Attention now turns toward the US labor data and speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers amid tariff respite by US President Donald Trump.   

Gold price awaits US jobs data for fresh impetus

After witnessing an extremely volatile trading day on Monday, Gold price bides times as buyers take a breather, weighing the recent tariffs play by Trump amid strong US ISM PMI data and hawkish Fed commentaries.

Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) embarks on a decent recovery across its major currency rivals as markets remain wary heading into the US tariff implementation time on China from 5:01 GMT this Tuesday.

However, if the much-awaited US JOLTS Job Openings data, expected to arrive at 8 million in December, disappoints alongside the upcoming Fedspeak, the selling interest in the Greenback will likely be reinforced, allowing Gold price to pressure record high.

Further, if risk recovery gathers steam, markets are likely to dump the safe-haven US Dollar in search of higher returns in the global stocks, Gold price could find a fresh boost for a continued upside.

Gold price witnessed good two-way businesses on Monday, falling as low as $2,773 in the first half due to intense safe-haven flows into the US Dollar after traders took account of US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

Trump on Saturday imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico while slapping China with 10% levy, citing that the measures were necessary to combat illegal immigration and the drug trade. The Trump tariff war rattled markets and pushed them to ‘sell everything’, with the Greenback emerging as the only winner.

However, the tide turned against the USD in Monday’s American trading after the US struck a deal with Mexico and Canada to delay tariffs by a month in exchange. for strict border security from both its neighbors and to ban fentanyl exports to the US.

Notwithstanding the sharp rebound in US Treasury bond yields, the renewed US Dollar sell-off helped push Gold price to fresh record highs at $2,831. Gold price, however, moved slightly away from the record highs to settle near $2,815 as Fed policymakers maintain their cautious outlook on inflation and interest rate cuts amid Trump’s policy uncertainty.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that “uncertainty has been increasing; want to be cautious and not have policy lean in a direction and have to switch.” “I’m prepared to wait for a while to cut again,” he added.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that “uncertainties warrant caution in rate cuts,” warning of “possible inflation increase.“

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart warrants caution for Gold optimists as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought region to currently trade near 71.

Therefore, further upside could remain elusive, with a pullback likely in the offing before the uptrend resumes.

If a correction sets in, Gold price could challenge the $2,800 round level, below which the previous day’s low of $2,772 will be tested.

Additional declines will put the January 30 low of $2,754 at risk. The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,731.

However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross keep hopes alive for buyers.

On the upside, Gold price needs a sustained move above the all-time high of $2,831 to target the $2,850 psychological level.