Rising supply and potentially weaker-than-expected demand are set to keep oil prices in check this year, with the price likely to average in the low $70s, analysts and investment banks say.

With the U.S. new administration, experts expect the average price to be lower compared to last year amid concerns about demand as economic uncertainty spiked with the start of the trade and tariff wars.

On the supply side, OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would begin adding barrels to the market as early as next month. Of course, OPEC+ left the door open to any changes to its supply in any direction, saying in the press release that it remains “adaptable to evolving conditions,” and “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.”

Wall Street Banks See Oil in the Low $70s

President Donald Trump’s trade policies threw market analysts a curveball, increasing the uncertainty about this year’s demand prospects if economies slow as a result of the tariffs.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.

Related: American Oil Is Underhedged and Heavily Exposed

“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”

The tariff wars and high spare capacity at OPEC+ producers are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, Goldman Sachs has also said.

HSBC analysts also see risks in oil skewed to the downside amid expectations of a surplus this year and next. Stronger supply growth compared to more sluggish demand growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this year, the bank said in a note. In the previous market view, HSBC expected a relatively balanced oil market in 2025.

Analysts at Barclays see Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year, down by $9 from the previous forecast, as they slashed their global demand growth estimate in mounting economic uncertainties.

“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week carried by Reuters.

The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.

Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.

Wood Mackenzie also expects oil prices to be lower this year compared to 2024.

Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down by $7 per barrel from 2024, due to expectations that supply would likely outstrip demand, Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook showed. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year was revised down by $0.40 from the early February monthly report.

“We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.

Key Oil Market Drivers

OPEC+ supply and the U.S. trade policies (and their effect on economies) will be the two key driving factors for oil prices this year, WoodMac says, although there are also many geopolitical issues at play, including talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.

WoodMac expects global economic growth at 2.8% for 2025, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.

Weaker economic growth could reduce oil demand growth by about 400,000 bpd from WoodMac’s current forecast of a 1.1 million bpd increase for 2025.

In case oil demand weakens, the annual average for Brent crude could be $3 to $5 per barrel lower than the $73 per barrel forecast, the energy consultancy says.

All these projections will depend on OPEC+ actions in terms of supply, U.S. trade and tariff policies, and global economic conditions, WoodMac noted.

For now, OPEC continues to see robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) last week. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd in each of 2025 and 2026.

The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, however, was bearish, as it has been typical of the IEA on oil demand for several years. The Paris-based agency expects growth to be just over 1 million bpd this year, with total global oil reaching 103.9 million bpd.

While this would be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its current balances that global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver plunges 1.6% as US Dollar and yields surge late Friday.
• XAG/USD hits weekly low of $32.66, pressured by a resurgent Greenback and elevated US Treasury yields.
• Sellers fail to breach $32.50 support, keeping downside capped for now, with key support at $31.91 (50-day SMA).

A rebound above $33.10 could trigger a late recovery toward $33.50, but bearish momentum remains dominant.

Silver prices plunged late in the North American session, hitting a weekly low beneath $33.00, sustaining its most significant loss since February 25, 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.03, down more than 1.6%, blamed on a strong US Dollar (USD) and elevated US yields.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price dipped to a fresh weekly low of $32.66 before recovering some ground. XAG/USD is poised to finish the week with losses, though sellers remained unable to clear the $32.50 psychological support level, which could’ve sponsored a test of the $32.00 figure.

On the downside, the following key support level is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.91, followed by the 100-day SMA at $31.19. At the same time, if buyers push the grey metal above the March 20-day low of $33.10, expect a late rally toward the $33.50 mark.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Even as copper prices try to hold their ground above the $5.00 barrier yesterday, a host of negative factors are emerging, as the Stochastic exited overbought levels, while $5.1700 is forming as an important barrier, thus curbing gains.

The price will likely engage in sidewaya trading, while a drop below $5.00 would activate the negative correctional path towards $4.8900, however, a resumption of gain requires a breach of $5.1700.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9000 and $5.1100.

Today’s price forecast: Correctional bearish

Stuck Between Moving Averages

Nonetheless, today’s price action leaves natural gas sandwiched between resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at $4.13, and the 50-Day MA at $3.88. An advance from current prices heads up into potential resistance around the 20-Day line and the recent interim swing high at $4.26. Natural gas remains in a clear downtrend.

Given today’s new bearish continuation signal, which confirms on a daily close below the prior low of $3.96, rallies will be heading into potential resistance levels until there starts to be solid signs of a bullish reversal. As it stands, that would start to happen on a sustained rally above the 20-Day MA and then an advance above the lower swing low at $4.26, which is the high for this week.

Weekly Bearish Signal

The significance of Friday’s bearish trend continuation increases when considering the weekly chart (not shown). That is because a bearish reversal on the weekly chart triggered today at $4.955. Therefore, it reflects added downward pressure. A daily close today below $3.955 will confirm the bearish signal on the weekly time frame. If that happens, the chance for a drop through the 50-Day line increases. And that could lead to a drop below the recent interim swing low at $3.74.

Lower Price Levels

Price areas to watch for potential support include the prior swing low, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.72, and a prior resistance level that may now show support at $3.64. Further down is an early target for a falling ABCD pattern. Instead of targeting 100% price symmetry between the two downswings, labeled AB and CD, this earlier level looks for an initial target in the CD leg of the decline at 78.6% of the price decline in the AB leg.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Even as copper prices try to hold their ground above the $5.00 barrier yesterday, a host of negative factors are emerging, as the Stochastic exited overbought levels, while $5.1700 is forming as an important barrier, thus curbing gains.

The price will likely engage in sidewaya trading, while a drop below $5.00 would activate the negative correctional path towards $4.8900, however, a resumption of gain requires a breach of $5.1700.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9000 and $5.1100.

Today’s price forecast: Correctional bearish

Even as copper prices try to hold their ground above the $5.00 barrier yesterday, a host of negative factors are emerging, as the Stochastic exited overbought levels, while $5.1700 is forming as an important barrier, thus curbing gains.

The price will likely engage in sidewaya trading, while a drop below $5.00 would activate the negative correctional path towards $4.8900, however, a resumption of gain requires a breach of $5.1700.

Expected trading range today is between $4.9000 and $5.1100.

Today’s price forecast: Correctional bearish

• Silver remains under some selling pressure for the third successive day on Friday.
• Acceptance below the 23.6% Sibo. level supports prospects for additional losses.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. 

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers for the third successive day on Friday and slides to the $33.00 neighborhood during the Asian session, back closer to a one-week low touched the previous day. 

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upswing from the late February low, around the $30.80 region. This supports prospects for deeper losses. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are still holding in positive territory. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find decent support near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $32.95-$32.90 zone. 

Bearish traders might wait for a sustained break below the said area before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from the $34.20-$34.25 region, or the highest level since October touched on Tuesday. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the $32.55-$32.50 zone, before eventually dropping to the $32.00 mark or the 61.8% Fibo. level. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the white metal has topped out in the near term.

On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $33.40 region, could act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying beyond the Asian session high, around the $33.55 area, has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $34.00 mark en route to a multi-month peak, around the $34.20-$34.25 zone. This is followed by barriers near the $34.55 area and the $34.85 region, or a multi-year peak touched in October, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. 

Silver daily chart

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading and successfully pierced the pivotal resistance of $68.00, boosted by trading above the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, while the price moves alongside the trend line.

However, it’s important to note that the Stochastic has reached overbought levels, which could hinder upcoming gains and might force the price into a correction to gather positive momentum and vent off that overbought saturation.

• Gold price looks to extend the pullback from record highs of $3,058 early Friday.
• The US Dollar and Treasury yields rebound as the Fed seems in no rush to cut rates.
• Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the daily chart amid global jitters.

Gold price is looking to extend its previous retreat from all-time highs of $3,058 in Asian trading on Friday. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the third consecutive weekly gain.   

Gold price eyes a pullback before the next leg up

Traders remain poised to cash in on their Gold long positions after the latest record rally heading into the week while bracing for next week’s US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

However, any retracement in Gold price is likely to be seen as a good buying opportunity as US President Donald Trump’s tariff-led economic concerns and persistent bets for two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cuts this year will continue to act as a tailwind for the traditional store of value.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-policy meeting press conference on Wednesday that they are in no rush to cut rates, their projections of two rate reductions for the current year remain intact, giving Gold buyers enough reason to stay hopeful.

Furthermore, the Fed raised stagflation fears in its quarterly economic projections, mainly due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs, keeping the demand for Gold as an inflation-hedge alive.

Not to forget the lingering Middle East geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas. At least 91 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday after Israel resumed bombing and ground operations, Reuters reported, citing Palestine’s health ministry.

That said, attention now turns to Fedspeak and President Trump’s Oval Address as traders anticipate reciprocal tariffs effective on April 2 amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine truce.

Speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams will be closely followed as they return from the ‘blackout’ period.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the Gold price retains its upside potential as the ascending triangle breakout remains in effect.

However, a brief pullback could be in the offing as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases but remains within the overbought region, near 70.50, at the time of writing.

Should the corrective decline gather steam, Gold price could test Wednesday’s low of $3,023, below which the $3,000 level will be targeted.

The next downside caps are at the weekly low of $2,982 and the $2,945 demand area, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support coincide.

Alternatively, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,056 if buyers regain poise. Further up, the triangle target measured at $3,080 will be put to the test.