XAU/USD Current price: $3,036.15

• The US Dollar surged amid risk aversion, extreme oversold conditions.
• The Bank of England kept the benchmark rate at 4.5%, as widely anticipated.
• XAU/USD could reach higher highs if the $3,020 area holds in the upcoming sessions.

Spot Gold retreated towards the $3,030 region after hitting yet another record high of $3,056.20 per troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened during European trading hours as caution led ahead of American data and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision.

On the one hand, the United States (US) published weekly unemployment data, showing claims increased by 223K in the last week, slightly better than the 224K expected. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey resulted at 12.5 in March, better than the 8.5 anticipated yet below the previous 18.1. Finally, Existing Home Sales were up 4.2% in February after falling by 4.7% in January. The data was mostly encouraging, helping the USD retain most of its intraday gains.

As for the BoE, the United Kingdom (UK) central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate on hold, as widely anticipated. Officials voted 8-1, availing the decision slightly more hawkish than the 7-2 anticipated. Additionally, policymakers showed concerns about the latest uptick in headline inflation, which was no surprise.

Demand for the USD eased after Wall Street’s opening, as US indexes posted an impressive comeback following a pre-opening slump. Stocks’ strength weighs on the USD, yet also prevents Gold from running north.

Friday will be light in terms of macroeconomic data, with investors looking at politics for direction.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trades in the red, yet also that it posted a higher high and a higher low, keeping the dominant bullish trend alive. In the mentioned time frame, however, technical indicators are giving signs of upward exhaustion, losing strength at extreme levels, suggesting an upcoming corrective slide. At the same time, the bright metal holds above all bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,941.70.

The 4-hour chart shows that the corrective decline may be complete as XAU/USD is bouncing from a firmly bullish 20 SMA, currently at $3,027.26, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher, far below the shorter one. At the same time, the Momentum indicator aims lower within positive levels but loses downward strength, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator corrected overbought conditions before stabilizing at around 61.

Support levels: 3,027.20 3,011.00 2,996.90  

Resistance levels: 3,056.30 3,070.00 3,085.00

Watching for Signs of Strength

If signs of strength seen today are sustained, then crude oil should show little difficulty in surpassing the next higher potential resistance zone around Tuesday’s high of $68.85. If the price exceeds that level, it may indicate a potential reversal and signal the beginning of an upward trend. This doesn’t mean the trend would keep rising but at a minimum there is the potential for the completion of a rising ABCD pattern at $69.87. Wednesday’s low (C) is a higher swing low relative to the bottom of the March decline at $65.41 (A).

Weekly Chart Confirms Bullishness

The larger time frame weekly chart confirms signs of strength. A bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern occurred last week with a high of $68.03. It was followed by a weekly breakout this week. Crude oil is on track to end the week in a bullish position near the highs of the weekly price range. This would position it for a bullish continuation.

If the initial $69.87 target is surpassed, there is a confluence zone around $70.61 to $70.81. That price zone starts with the 50% retracement of an internal decline along with the extended target from the ABCD pattern that is shown on the chart. Higher up is the 50-Day MA. It is currently at $71.96 and is falling.

Strong Weekly Breakout

Given the weekly reversal that will likely confirm this week with a weekly closing price above last week’s high, a couple weeks up wouldn’t be unusual, at a minimum. The weekly breakout looks clear and decisive so far. Therefore, what happens next will be telling. Does the advance stall and chop around before bullish momentum returns, or does next week start with a breakout to new weekly highs?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Testing $3.96 Support

If the $3.96 support area is busted to the downside natural gas heads towards a test of support around the 50-Day MA, currently at $3.88. That said, since the 50-Day MA is rising it could converge around recent lows before it is approached. In other words, there will be little downside momentum likely below $3.96 before the 50-Day line is encountered. If the 50-Day line fails to hold as support, it looks like the recent swing low around $3.74 will be challenged as support. That price level is joined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent upswing at $3.72. There is also previous resistance from the 2023 peak at $3.64, which may show signs of support when approached from above.

Bearish Signs

Given the decline today below Wednesday’s low, a lower swing high may have been established. It completes the CD leg of a developing declining ABCD pattern (purple). It shows a 78.6% target for the CD leg at of the decline at $3.52. Further down is the 100% target for the pattern at $3.31. That is where there is price symmetry as the decline in both the AB and CD legs of the decline match. Notice that in either case the next lower trendline may be broken before the targets are hit. Unless a drop to the 78.6% level happens in the next few days it looks like the trendline will be tested as support first.

Weekly Bearish Pattern

Last week ended with a bearish candlestick pattern and a relatively weak close in the lower third of the week’s trading range. Therefore, a weekly bearish reversal will be indicated with a drop below last week’s low of $3.96. That would increase the chance that the bearish correction may challenge the $3.74 swing low as it is also a weekly low, or fall lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

US crude oil prices rose in the intraday levels and managed to vent off oversold saturation that was apparent in the Stochastic, until it reached overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, thus sending out negative signals, with the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside a secondary short-term trend line, while the price is hurt by a recently forming negative Rising Wedge pattern. 

Even as natural gas prices weakened recently, major indicators continue to produce positive signals, with the price managing to surpass the obstacle at $4.180, opening the door for more gains to come. 

As the Stochastic approaches the 80 levels, the price will get further momentum and heads towards the target of $4.280 then $4.450.

Expected trading range today is between $4,150 and $4.280.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Even as natural gas prices weakened recently, major indicators continue to produce positive signals, with the price managing to surpass the obstacle at $4.180, opening the door for more gains to come. 

As the Stochastic approaches the 80 levels, the price will get further momentum and heads towards the target of $4.280 then $4.450.

Expected trading range today is between $4,150 and $4.280.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Even as natural gas prices weakened recently, major indicators continue to produce positive signals, with the price managing to surpass the obstacle at $4.180, opening the door for more gains to come. 

As the Stochastic approaches the 80 levels, the price will get further momentum and heads towards the target of $4.280 then $4.450.

Expected trading range today is between $4,150 and $4.280.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

• Silver price faced headwinds as the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% on Wednesday
• The non-yielding Silver may have found support as US Treasury yields declined.
• Silver lease rates have surged due to shrinking stockpiles in London.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains after a previous session of losses, trading around $33.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. However, the non-interest-bearing metal faces pressure following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision.

As widely expected, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting but reaffirmed its outlook for two rate cuts later this year. This stance aligns with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, counterbalancing concerns over rising inflation in the United States (US), potentially driven by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Silver, a non-yielding asset, may have found support as US Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%. Meanwhile, bonds gained traction following the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening, citing concerns over reduced liquidity and potential risks tied to government debt limits.

Silver lease rates have surged due to shrinking stockpiles, particularly in London, as Silver flows toward the US to capitalize on higher prices. Banks and traders lease Silver to ensure short-term liquidity for trading or operational needs.

This shift has widened price gaps between major markets, with spot silver up 17% this year, outperforming other commodities. Additionally, physical Silver transfers from Canada and Mexico are strained by tariffs, further tightening supply. Growing fears of a “silver squeeze” could disrupt trade for months.

US crude oil prices rose in the intraday levels and managed to vent off oversold saturation that was apparent in the Stochastic, until it reached overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, thus sending out negative signals, with the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside a secondary short-term trend line, while the price is hurt by a recently forming negative Rising Wedge pattern. 

• Gold bids jump after Fed releases latest rate call and dot plot.
• Growth expectations in 2025 are getting hampered by lopsided US policy calls.
• Powell acknowledged that tariff impacts are proving difficult to forecast.

On Wednesday, Gold surged toward $3,050 during intraday trading as the Federal Reserve (Fed) made its latest interest rate decision, keeping rates unchanged at 4.5%. The Fed noted that growth projections for 2025 have been significantly hindered by the Trump administration’s erratic policy of announcing trade tariffs on social media only to later retract them. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revised its end-2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 1.7%, a sharp decline from the 2.1% estimate shared in December.

Additionally, the median dot plot suggests the end-2025 interest rate will remain at 3.9%, showing little change since the last policy meeting. The FOMC plans to slow down its balance sheet runoff starting in April. Rate markets still indicate a greater than 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in June, with most rate traders pricing in 65% odds of a quarter-point or higher rate cut on June 18.

Fed’s Powell: Inflation remains somewhat elevated

Despite rising risks to the US economy via lagging growth metrics and growing concerns that the US’ haphazard tariff policy could kick off both fresh inflation and an economic recession at the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday that the current economic outlook still remains overall healthy, and the Fed is in no rush to shift away from its expectations of at least two more rate cuts later in the year.

This policy outlook matches the aggregate score of Fed policymaker speeches, scored by FXStreet’s internal Fed Sentiment Index, which shows Fed speakers have been vocal in pointing out the growing risks and concerns looming over the US economy, however the aggregate view remains pinned slightly to the dovish side, but close to neutral as the Fed awaits clearer data direction.

XAU/USD daily chart