Nonetheless, the rising trendline may continue to mark resistance on the way up and therefore hampers the potential of a rally. It is also important to note that this week’s price action is contained within the price range from last week. Last week’s high of $4.90 established a new high for the uptrend, but it was followed by sellers taking control. Subsequently, the week ended with a bearish looking relatively wide range candlestick pattern. Since sellers dominated price action last week, downward pressure may continue.
Potential for Falling ABCD Pattern
Therefore, it looks like a rally may establish a lower swing low and the CD leg of a declining ABCD pattern. The first downswing from last week’s high generated the AB leg of the pattern. Also, note that there is a bearish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI). That also implies continued downward pressure. That may change if the trendline on the RSI window is broken to the upside.
Above $4.38 Improves Bull Thesis
Natural gas would first need to rise above last Wednesday’s high of $4.38 and stay above it for the above bearish thesis to begin to change. That would show continued strength and show a reclaim of the January prior trend high of $4.37. If further signs of strength followed, then natural gas would have a chance to challenge and possibly exceed the recent trend high.
50-Day Line is Key
On the downside, the 50-Day MA is critical support for the near-term angle of ascent. However, notice that the recent angle of the trend is higher than it has been. Since the $2.99 swing low from January was well below the 50-Day line, it could easily be broken again.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Natural gas prices were flat since yesterday, holding their ground around the pivotal support of $3.750, while stabilizing above the support of the ascending secondary channel at $3.960.
The Stochastic attempted to provide some support by exiting oversold levels, with the price now likely attacking the barrier at $4.180, thus opening the door for more gains towards $4.280 and $4.450.
Expected trading range today is between $3.980 and $4.280.
Silver oscillates in a range near a multi-month high touched on Tuesday.
The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for further gains.
Any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near $30.40.
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates in a range around the $34.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and remains close to its highest level since late October touched the previous day. The technical setup, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the upside.
This week’s bounce from the $33.40 resistance-turned support, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, validates the constructive outlook and supports prospects for an extension of a nearly three-week-old uptrend. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the $34.20-$34.25 region, will reaffirm the positive bias and lift the XAG/USD beyond the $34.50-$34.55 intermediate hurdle, towards the $35.00 neighborhood, or a multi-year high touched in October.
On the flip side, any corrective pullback might continue to find some support near the $33.40 region, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate the fall toward the $33.00 round figure. A convincing break below the latter could pave the way for a fall towards the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) pivotal support, currently pegged near the $31.50-$31.45 zone. This is followed by the $31.25-$31.20 support, the $31.00 mark, and the late February low, around the $30.80 area.
Failure to defend the said support levels might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards the $30.45-$30.40 support en route to the $30.00 psychological mark. The white metal could eventually drop to the $29.55-$29.50 support and test sub-$29.00 levels, or the year-to-date low touched in January.
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Coffee price had to postpone the bullish rally by crawling below 406.00 level recently, to form mixed sideways trades by settling near 385.00 now, noting that the main stability above the bullish channel’s support line at 366.00 and stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allow us to keep the bullish overview, to target 406.00 as a first station, while surpassing it might extend trades towards the next main target at 426.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 375.00 and 406.00
Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
Natural gas prices were flat since yesterday, holding their ground around the pivotal support of $3.750, while stabilizing above the support of the ascending secondary channel at $3.960.
The Stochastic attempted to provide some support by exiting oversold levels, with the price now likely attacking the barrier at $4.180, thus opening the door for more gains towards $4.280 and $4.450.
Expected trading range today is between $3.980 and $4.280.
The EUR/USD pair managed to close higher for the third straight session, tackling the pivotal and stubborn resistance of $1.0945, with support due to trading above the 50-day SMA, and amid the dominance of the main upward trend, while the price trades within a secondary price channel in the intraday levels.
To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!
April WTI crude oil (CLJ25) today is up +0.06 (+0.09%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ25) is up +0.011 (+0.05%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices today climbed to 2-week highs and are slightly higher. Ramped up tensions in the Middle East are boosting crude prices after Israel launched a series of airstrikes across Gaza today. Also, the US is launching strikes against Houthi Rebels in Yemen for attacking shipping in the Red Sea. Today’s stronger-than-expected global economic news is also supportive for crude prices. Gains in crude were limited by a stronger dollar and hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with President Trump set to speak with Russian President Putin later today as Mr. Trump pushes for an end to the three-year conflict.
Crude prices are climbing from rising tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to disruption of supplies from the region. Israel launched a series of airstrikes across Gaza today, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to act “with increasing military strength” to free hostages and disarm Hamas. The US is also launching strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said strikes would be “unrelenting” until the group stops attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
Today’s global economic news was supportive for energy demand and crude prices. US Feb housing starts rose +11.2% m/m to 1.501 million, stronger than expectations of 1.385 million. Also, US Feb manufacturing production rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the biggest increase in a year. In addition, the German Mar ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +25.6 to a 3-year high of 51.6, stronger than expectations of 48.3.
A bearish factor for crude was Sunday’s action by Goldman Sachs to cut its year-end WTI crude price forecast to $67 a barrel from $72 and lower its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 18% to 900,000 bpd, citing a slowing global economy from tariffs and the OPEC+ plan to increase production.
Also weighing on crude prices is concern that US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will curb global growth and undercut energy demand.
Ramped-up Russian oil exports are negative for crude prices after data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa showed Russian Feb oil products exports reached a 1-year high of 2.5 million bpd.
Crude prices were undercut when OPEC+ said on March 3 that it would restart some halted crude output in April, adding 138,000 bpd to global supplies. That is the first of a series of monthly hikes to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, which will gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won’t be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC Feb crude production rose +320,000 bpd to a 14-month high of 27.35 million bpd.
In a supportive factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -30,000 bpd to 3.45 million bpd in the week to March 16.
Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China’s 2024 crude imports fell -1.9% y/y to 553 MMT. China is the world’s biggest crude importer.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -20% w/w to 60.89 million bbl in the week ended March 14.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of March 7 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending March 7 rose +0.5% w/w to 13.575 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending March 14 rose +1 rig to 487 rigs, mildly above the 3-year low of 472 rigs posted on January 24. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
Gold price consolidates below all-time highs of $3,038 on the Fed day.
US Dollar attempts recovery as traders resort to repositioning.
Gold price could pull back before resuming its record-setting rally.
Gold price is consolidating the recent upsurge to a record high of $3,038 in Wednesday’s Asian trading hours. Gold buyers take a breather as a sense of caution prevails, heading toward the all-important US Federal Reserve (fed) monetary policy announcements due later in the day.
Gold price braces for the Fed verdict-driven intense volatility
The Fed is widely expected to extend the pause to its interest-rate-cutting cycle in March but the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot chart, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech will hold the key to gauging the scope and timing of the central bank’s next policy moves.
Any hints of a further extension of the pause by the Fed this year, in the face of US President Donald Trump’s protectionism and its inflationary impact, could trigger a sharp correction in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. The US Dollar (USD) is likely to see a fresh recovery rally following a potential hawkish Fed decision.
Markets have priced in at least two more rate cuts this year due to growing economic concerns induced by Trump’s tariffs. Gold price could also feel the heat if the Fed policymakers pencil in fewer rate cuts this year compared to the December projections.
However, if Fed Chair Powell expresses concerns over a likely recession or if the Fed officials stick to their rate cut forecast for 2025, it could be perceived as a dovish hold. In such a scenario, the USD and the US Treasury bond yields could come under intense selling pressure, lifting Gold price to fresh record highs.
In the meantime, Gold could see a minor pullback as traders cash in on profits after the record rally while bracing for the Fed event-led volatility. Any downside in the safe-haven Gold price will likely remain capped due to persisting geopolitical and trade tensions.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that “Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza and killed more than 400 people on Tuesday.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remained sceptical on Russia’s proposal to halt strikes on energy infrastructure in a limited ceasefire arrangement agreed between US President Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the phone on Tuesday.
These tensions, combined with tariff uncertainty and the outcome of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision, will likely drive the broad market sentiment, impacting the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price action.
The BoJ is expected to keep the short-term interest rate steady at 0.50%, with hawkish hints likely on the cards by the central bank due to rising inflationary pressures, stubborn wages and the trade war impact.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Technically, nothing changes for the Gold price in the near term as the bullish bias remains intact, with the ascending triangle breakout in play.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat-lined just above the overbought region, near 72, at the time of writing. The leading indicator suggests that a brief pullback could be in the offing before the next leg up resumes.
Therefore, if the Gold price extends the retreat, the initial demand area near the $2,980 level will be put to the test.
The next downside caps are at the previous triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,956 and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,935.
The triangle support at $2,915 will prove to be a tough nut to crack for sellers.
On the flip side, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,038 if buyers regain control. Further up, the $3,050 mark will be on their radars.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
