2026.10.12 2026.10.12
Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 12.10.2026

Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I have identified entry signals for intraday traders.

Gold is trading in a short-term downtrend.

Major Takeaways

• USCrude: Oil is testing resistance A at 91.18–90.73.
• XAUUSD: Gold came close to resistance B at 4,235–4,220 today.
• EURUSD: The euro is trading within a short-term downtrend.

Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis

Oil is trading within a short-term downtrend. The price is testing resistance A at 91.18–90.73. Currently, sellers are holding this zone. Therefore, one may consider short trades, with targets at 88.75 and 86.30.

If the price breaks above resistance A, the upward correction will continue toward resistance B at 93.61–92.95. Short trades can be considered near this zone.

USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell/hold short trades opened near resistance A at 91.18–90.73. TakeProfit: 88.75, 86.30. StopLoss: 92.24.

Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis

Gold is trading within a short-term downtrend. Today, the price attempted to test the resistance at 4,235–4,220 but failed to reach it. Once the asset tests this zone and a sell signal appears, consider short trades, with the first target at 4,150 and the second target near 4,066.

If the gold price exceeds the 4,235 level, the short-term trend may turn upward.

XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance B at 4,235–4,220. TakeProfit: 4,150, 4,066. StopLoss: 4,262.

Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis

The short-term downtrend remains intact. The euro is currently trading in a correction phase. You can hold the short positions opened last week at resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245. The price has already hit the first sell target near 1.1207. The next target is the October 5 low of 1.1161.

If the euro price settles above resistance A, the upward correction will continue toward resistance B at 1.1299–1.1287.

EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Hold part of short trades opened near resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245. TakeProfit: 1.1161. StopLoss: at breakeven.

Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

The 2-hour chart for Brent crude shows a price of around $105.50. Price has maintained its more recent higher lows sequence.

Also notable is the fact that price is comfortably above both moving averages as well as the rising support trendline. The recent dip from the $107 area has not altered the bigger bullish scenario.

The first target I am watching is $107.22. A break above that level would expose $109.90 and then $112.68. Support is situated at $102.30, $99.62 and $96.87.

RSI is above the 50 line. I am bullish while $102.30 and the rising trendline are holding. A close above $107.22 would be more bullish for the $109.90 area, and a close below $102.30 would be more bearish.

Weekly Structure Points Toward Higher Resistance

The weekly chart also supports the potential for an eventual resolution to the upside above $3.298. Last week, a bullish continuation signal was confirmed by a weekly close above the prior week’s high of $3.18. This resulted in a higher weekly low and higher high, suggesting that the weekly bullish trend was continuing after a higher swing low formed at $2.817 (A) last month.

If the bullish advance resumes after the current short-term consolidation, the September high of $3.317 and June high of $3.396 define a range of potential resistance. In addition, a measured move points to $3.41 as a potential upside target. Because this target is relatively close to the July high of $3.396, the two levels form a potential resistance zone between $3.396 and $3.41. A test of that zone could therefore mark the next significant challenge for buyers if natural gas breaks above the nearer resistance levels. For now, the ability to hold support near $3.10 and break above $3.204 remains important to the bullish outlook.

WTI oil rallied as traders focused on the situation in Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi airports over the weekend. Saudi Arabia said that the “cowardly terrorist attack”, which led to civilian deaths, was a war crime by the Houthis.

Oil traders bet that Saudi Arabia would be forced to respond, engaging in a full war against the Houthis. In turn, the Houthis could attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. may choose to help Saudi Arabia in the war against the Houthis. Put simply, the risks of additional escalation in the region are rising on a daily basis.

Natural gas gapped lower to kick off the trading session and then continued to fall toward the 200-day EMA. That being said, keep in mind that Monday is a bank holiday in the United States and Canada, so we’ll have to wait and see whether or not that makes a difference with liquidity. A huge portion of natural gas trading is done out of North America. It is a North American contract, and therefore this is important.

Ultimately, not a lot has changed. We are still stuck between the $3 and $3.30 levels. This is a market that is starting to roll over into colder temperatures, and that should help demand, therefore increasing price. But we are at that time of year in the United States where it might get a little cold at night, but it is warm enough during the day that you are not really heating your home.

Platinum completed its latest bullish corrective rebound after touching the $1705.00 level, before moving into sideways trading in an attempt to confirm the continuation of its current bearish trend, with $1740.00 now acting as an additional resistance barrier.

The conflicting signals from the main technical indicators may push the price into further sideways trading. We will therefore continue to wait for the price to gather the necessary negative momentum to renew its bearish attempts, gradually moving toward $1650.00 and $1605.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1740.00 and $1740.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Oil prices fell on Monday as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a possible halt to attacks on energy facilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict eased some concerns over supply. However, continued tensions in the Middle East kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel.Brent crude futures fell $1.54, or 1.47%, to $103.18 a barrel by 7.24 am IST. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by the same amount, or 1.68%, to $90.31 a barrel.ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel, fell 3% to $1,436 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said Russia would supply additional diesel to US and global markets.Earlier on Friday, Trump said that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to around 2.25 million barrels.He added that another 500,000 tonnes would be supplied in November, followed by a further 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter”.Global daily diesel consumption is forecast to be close to 29 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).Trump also announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details of the proposed energy ceasefire.The announcements eased some immediate concerns over supply, said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, Reuters reported.“Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited,” he added.Despite the easing of some supply concerns, the conflict in the Middle East continued to support oil prices. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300.Saudi authorities also reported injuries in another attack on the airport on Sunday.Trump said on Saturday that the US was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. The conflict has spilled over from the wider war involving Iran, launched by the US and Israel in February.Attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also increased this month, threatening to disrupt the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports seen in September.Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, according to a note by analysts led by Daan Struyven.“We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,” the analysts said, estimating a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,” they added.Oil prices ended the previous week with mixed movements. Brent futures for December delivery rose $2.47, or 2.41%, to $104.72 a barrel, while WTI gained 1% to settle at $91.85 a barrel.With Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel, geopolitical developments are likely to remain a key driver of prices. Progress in US-Iran negotiations could ease pressure, but the risk of renewed attacks, shipping disruptions and prolonged supply constraints is expected to keep volatility elevated.

That being said, this is a temporary situation as opposed to some of the more prolonged shut-ins that we have seen in the Middle East. The reality is that undamaged facilities can restart after they are inspected and standard safety checks are done, while damaged installations could take longer.

This sets up a situation where the weekend could be very important because we need to know how much damage has been done to those rigs in the Gulf. That is probably a story that will develop Saturday evening, Sunday morning, possibly Monday.

The storm arrives against a supportive inventory backdrop. The EIA’s October 7 petroleum report showed commercial crude stocks falling 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million in the week ending October 2. Crude exports have reached 4.765 million barrels per day, while refinery inputs have increased to 16.48 million. This all predates the storm, so this could look like a wild release next week.

Lost offshore production will reduce supply, potentially supporting WTI prices. The fact that the technical analysis lines up with that is something that is not lost on me. This is not to say that crude oil has to go straight up in the air, but clearly a lot of things are lining up at the same time to be supportive.

Brent is up to $103.45. It has recovered very nicely off the $98.71 level. As it stands above both the MAs and in the upper channel it keeps the broad picture positive. However, $103.89 remains the key breakout level and buyers still need a clear break above it to strengthen the uptrend.

$103.89 is the first resistance. A clear break above this would target $106.03 and then $109.79. For support, $102.78 is the first. Under this, $98.71, $95.64, and $93.15 come into play.

RSI has improved recently and is above the 50 level. This means the momentum is positive, but is not overextended. With Brent above $102.78, I like longs. A close above $103.89 further strengthens the uptrend and targets the $106.03 area. A move through $98.71 invalidates the current pattern.