2026.05.08 2026.05.08
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 08.05.26–15.05.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 87.20 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 87.20. Stop Loss: below 85.50, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 87.20 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 87.20 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 88.80, Take Profit: 78.70–65.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 87.20 with a target of 115.70–126.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 87.20 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. Apparently, wave v of 1 is developing on the H4 time frame, with a local correction (ii) of v formed as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.70–126.00 within wave (iii) of v. The level of 87.20 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

NEW YORK, May 9, 2026, 05:42 EDT

Natural gas futures in the U.S. wrapped up the week just under $2.80 per million British thermal units. Prices held their ground on a lighter storage build, though a decisive move higher remained elusive with spring demand lagging. As of May 8, Trading Economics showed natural gas at $2.80, marking a monthly gain of roughly 5%, but the contract is still off more than 26% compared to the same period last year.

The timing lands in the shoulder season—the lull between heavy winter heating and the onset of summer air-conditioning demand. During this stretch, traders pay close attention to storage levels, export activity, and weather forecasts, since day-to-day demand can shift abruptly.

Underground gas storage in the U.S. reached 2,205 bcf for the week ending May 1, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s a 63 bcf build from the previous week. Inventories now stand 75 bcf higher than this time last year and 139 bcf above the five-year average. While supplies remain comfortable, traders had been looking for a touch more slack.

The reported 63 bcf injection missed forecasts for a 74 bcf build and trailed the five-year average gain of 77 bcf, StoneX noted after the data hit. While a smaller build isn’t a sign of scarcity, it does chip away at just how persistent the surplus appears.

Gelber & Associates pointed to “a rapidly fading heating season” bumping up against the first notable summer cooling demand, with pipeline exports to Mexico approaching 7.5 bcf/d lending a floor. NatGasWeather.com noted that extended forecasts now tilt hotter-than-normal for much of the interior U.S. heading into late May and early June. The Wall Street Journal

Supply remains steady. U.S. drillers bumped up oil and gas rigs for the third week running, bringing the count to 548, according to Baker Hughes. Gas rigs ticked down by one to 129. The EIA projects U.S. gas production will edge up to 109.6 bcf/d in 2026, compared with a record 107.7 bcf/d seen in 2025, Reuters said.

For now, the EIA’s outlook is muted, not wild. The agency projects Henry Hub—the main U.S. benchmark out of Louisiana—hovering near $3.10 per MMBtu for both Q2 and Q3. By 2026, it expects a yearly average of $3.67. On the export front, U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments are set to reach 17.0 bcf/d in 2026, topping the prior year’s record 15.1 bcf/d.

U.S. gas finds an extra lift from global markets. Asia’s spot LNG prices slipped to $16.90 per MMBtu for June, down from $17.80, according to Reuters, but that’s still a hefty premium over Henry Hub. ICIS analyst Evan Tan pointed to “current spot prices have started to ease off” as traders watch for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and sluggish buying in North Asia. Yet Hans Van Cleef at EqoLibrium said the firmer Asian market means “all uncontracted cargoes are heading to Asia.” Reuters

Bulls could see their case unravel in a hurry. A cool-down after late May, ongoing LNG maintenance that’s still limiting export demand, or bigger builds in the upcoming storage reports—any of these could send the market slipping into that softer spring mood again. With inventories running above average, sellers aren’t shy about hitting into any rally.

Looking ahead, range-bound action seems most likely, though there’s a slight tilt higher if weekend weather models keep the heat. Edging up to $3? That’ll require a clear boost in power burn or LNG feedgas running hotter. Otherwise, Thursday’s storage surprise offers a floor, not fresh direction.

London, May 9, 2026, 10:40 (BST)

Oil prices managed a bounce on Friday but still wrapped up the week in the red, with traders eyeing U.S.-Iran diplomacy more than the usual supply reports as violence flares near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the international standard, settled at $101.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $95.42. Both benchmarks slid over 6% for the week. “The market is hung between a breakthrough in negotiations and a renewal of the fighting,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. Reuters

The market’s not just moving with the usual supply swings anymore. China’s crude imports tumbled 20% in April, sliding to 38.5 million metric tons—the lowest mark since July 2022—after the Hormuz shutdown tightened flows to the top oil buyer, according to customs figures.

Bulls got a bit of a lift from fresh U.S. weekly figures, yet the war premium stuck around. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stocks, not counting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 million for the week ended May 1. Gasoline and distillate inventories also moved lower.

Citi didn’t budge on its short-term Brent call, holding the zero-to-three-month target at $120 a barrel. The bank projects the benchmark will average $110 through the second quarter, sliding to $95 in the third and $80 in the fourth. According to Citi, the market may be shrugging off how persistent or severe the disruption could be, warning traders are “under-pricing duration and tail risks.” Reuters

The U.S. government isn’t calling for fireworks, but there’s a catch baked in. According to the EIA’s April outlook, Brent tops out at $115 a barrel in Q2, then slides under $90 in Q4. All of it hinges, though, on how long the Middle East conflict drags on and how much supply actually goes offline.

OPEC+ is making a point to the market: it has the power to boost supply, even if those promised extra barrels won’t hit the market right away. The group signed off on a 188,000-barrel-per-day quota hike for June, but analysts caution the real-world impact looks minor as Gulf exports are still tight. “Physical supply remains very limited,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and former OPEC official. OPEC+, he added, wants to remind everyone it “still calls the shots.” Reuters

Signals out of U.S. shale remain conflicted. Baker Hughes reported a third consecutive weekly increase in oil and gas rigs, ticking up by one to 548—the highest since early April. Even so, that’s 30 fewer rigs than this time last year, highlighting that rising prices aren’t translating into immediate production gains.

Big swings in risk are turning up in corporate hedging moves. Diamondback Energy has snapped up close to $70 million in options riding on the WTI-Brent spread—the difference between U.S. crude and international oil prices—in a bet that stands to gain if U.S. oil exports face curbs and domestic crude drops. Tim Skirrow, who heads derivatives at Energy Aspects, called the deal a sign of “risk of a U.S. crude export ban.” Reuters

On the demand front, the International Energy Agency in April projected that oil demand would shrink by 80,000 barrels per day this year as the Iran war reshaped its view. The agency cautioned that if tight supplies and elevated prices stick around, “demand destruction will spread.” IEA

Still, the risk runs both ways. A lasting ceasefire, tankers once again flowing smoothly through Hormuz, tepid Chinese demand, and draws from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could all keep a lid on prices. But if negotiations break down and shipping snarls persist, Brent hovering close to $100 might end up being less a barrier and more a launchpad.

This week, oil prices look set to move on headlines rather than the usual inventory calculus. Brent’s underpinned by stubbornly tight physical supply and thinning product stocks. WTI, though, gets dragged by added uncertainty over U.S. export policy. The market’s got a bit of relief in the mix. Patience? Not much of that priced in.

The EURJPY pair reached %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.00, to form strong support to provide chances for recovering some losses by its rally near 183.70 level.

In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on forming main barrier by 185.45 level against the current trading, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 182.80 level, to attempt to renew the pressure on 182.00 support, while breaching the main barrier and holding above it will confirm its move to a positive station, to begin targeting several positive stations by its rally towards 186.00 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.80 and 184.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Thursday as interest rates have dropped.

• Ultimately, this is a very good sign, and I think eventually silver could go looking to the $90 level.

That being said, there are a couple of things that you just simply must pay attention to here because it could make a major difference on what your account sees next. Quite frankly, we have the United States and Iran getting closer to peace, but if that falls apart, that will make rates rise and that will be bad for the XAG/USD pair.

Geopolitical Influence and Technical Resistance

Furthermore, Friday is non-farm payroll in the United States, so that obviously has a part to play in how things turn out in the interest rate market as well. So while this is a very bullish looking market in the short term, it’s also worth noting that we’re at a very dangerous crossroads.

The $82.50 region was a swing high back on April 17 and that’s where we find ourselves now. Because of this, I am a little hesitant to get too aggressive, but I also recognize that we have a situation where eventually we have to resolve whether or not the uptrend can continue.

As things stand right now, I do think it happens but we’ll more likely than not get some type of pullback. I’ll be looking at that pullback as a potential buying opportunity. I’ve got no interest in shorting silver.

I think there’s a hard floor at 70 and we could very well find ourselves in a situation where we just bang around between $70 and $90 longer term with more of an upward tilt because there is a supply constraint out there that can’t be ignored. Regardless, we’re probably one bad headline away from getting a lot of volatility, so size accordingly.

Ready to trade our daily forex analysis and predictions? Here are the best Silver trading brokers to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market this morning (May 8) recorded a simultaneous recovery in key growing areas of the Central Highlands after previous volatile sessions. According to actual records, the average purchase price throughout the region has increased by another 500 VND/kg, bringing the crude price level to the threshold of 87,660 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices recorded an increase of 400 VND, pushing the purchase price to the milestone of 87,700 VND/kg, continuing to maintain the highest position in the region.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 500 VND, currently trading stably at the threshold of 87,500 VND/kg.

Lam Dong area listed the price at 87,000 VND/kg after recovering by another 500 VND compared to yesterday’s session. In addition, pepper prices continued to remain unchanged at a high level of 143,000 VND/kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank slightly decreased by 1 VND to 26,087 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

Developments in the international market last night showed an extremely clear differentiation between the two main coffee lines. The London exchange continues to be a fulcrum for domestic prices when the price of Robusta for July delivery surged by another 19 USD (equivalent to 0.56%), reaching 3,432 USD/ton.

Conversely, the New York Stock Exchange witnessed a strong sell-off session that caused Arabica prices to plummet by 10.60 cents (equivalent to 3.73%), falling deep to 272.45 cents/lb, officially hitting the lowest level in the past 2 weeks.

Coffee market situation assessment

The sharp drop in Arabica stems from huge psychological pressure as reports predicting a “super bumper” crop in Brazil are continuously released. Coffee Trading Academy estimates that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop output will increase by 12%, reaching 71.4 million bags, while StoneX even gave a global surplus of up to 10 million bags for 2026. This has triggered a sell-off wave on the New York exchange as speculators worry about a long-term supply surplus.

However, Robusta prices still maintained green thanks to the fact that the actual supply shortage has not shown signs of cooling down. Robusta inventories monitored by the ICE exchange have fallen to a record low in 16.25 months, with only 3,755 lots left.

In addition, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions is blocking the supply chain, pushing transportation costs, insurance and fertilizer prices to skyrocket, directly creating barriers to prevent prices from falling deeply. In Vietnam, although exports in the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, the amount of inventory in the people is no longer much, which also contributes to keeping pace for domestic prices.

The EURJPY pair reached %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.00, to form strong support to provide chances for recovering some losses by its rally near 183.70 level.

In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on forming main barrier by 185.45 level against the current trading, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 182.80 level, to attempt to renew the pressure on 182.00 support, while breaching the main barrier and holding above it will confirm its move to a positive station, to begin targeting several positive stations by its rally towards 186.00 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.80 and 184.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided a new positive close above $5.9700 level, reinforcing the efficiency of the bullish trend, recording clear gains by reaching $6.2100, approaching the second suggested target in the previous report.

The price gets positive momentum by stochastic, which attempts to settle within the overbought level, increasing the chances of surpassing $6.2600 level, to expect its rally towards $6.3800 resistance in the near period. 

The expected trading range for today is between $6.0400 and$6.3800

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price provided a new positive close above $5.9700 level, reinforcing the efficiency of the bullish trend, recording clear gains by reaching $6.2100, approaching the second suggested target in the previous report.

The price gets positive momentum by stochastic, which attempts to settle within the overbought level, increasing the chances of surpassing $6.2600 level, to expect its rally towards $6.3800 resistance in the near period. 

The expected trading range for today is between $6.0400 and$6.3800

Trend forecast: Bullish