September arabica coffee (KCU26) today is down -0.40 (-0.12%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) is up +29 (+0.77%).

Coffee prices are mixed today.  Arabica coffee is under pressure today on forecasts for mostly dry weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions over the next week, which should allow for the pace of the country’s coffee harvest to speed up.

On Tuesday, coffee prices rallied to 2-week highs amid concern that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the country’s coffee harvest and tighten global supplies.  On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that 32.4 mm of rain, or 2700% of the historical average, fell in the week ended July 26 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.

The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind the year-earlier pace of 67%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%. 

Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday, although inventories were mildly below that level at 4,133 lots today.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 274,168 bags on Wednesday.

Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows due to the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America. 

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jun) rose by +7.3% y/y to 1.05 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market turned down sharply after the previous increase session. Coffee prices on July 30th averaged 96,600 VND/kg, down 1,800 VND/kg compared to the previous day. The highest level in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 96,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today reached 96,000 VND/kg, down 1,800 VND/kg compared to the previous day. This is the lowest level among regions with detailed updated tables.

In Gia Lai, coffee prices were recorded at 96,500 VND/kg, down 1,800 VND/kg compared to the previous session.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 96,800 VND/kg, down 1,700 VND/kg. This is the highest level among the regions updated in detail.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices also decreased according to the general trend of the market.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices fell sharply on both the London and New York exchanges.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures fell 104 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.68%, to 3.773 USD/ton. The November 2026 futures fell 110 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.85%, to 3.749 USD/ton.

Further terms also decreased. Robusta in January 2027 lost 108 USD/ton, down to 3.716 USD/ton; March 2027 term decreased by 108 USD/ton, to 3,686 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, the September 2026 Arabica futures fell 13.60 US cents/lb, equivalent to 4.01%, to 325.80 US cents/lb. The December 2026 futures fell 8.75 US cents/lb, to 308.55 US cents/lb.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices fell sharply in the context of the global market adjusting. For Vietnam, Robusta London is still a variable that needs to be closely monitored due to its direct impact on domestic purchasing prices.

Today’s decrease also shows that the general level of coffee prices is still fluctuating very quickly. Just after one day of strong increase to the area of 98. 400 VND/kg, the average price has retreated to 96. 600 VND/kg.

From a supply-demand perspective, USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year to reach 32.5 million bags converted to green beans. For Brazil, USDA/FAS forecasts coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year to reach 71.9 million bags, an increase of 14% compared to the previous crop year.

Regarding the weather, the Central Highlands is in the rainy season. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, on July 30, day and night, the Central Highlands area will have showers and thunderstorms in some places; especially in the afternoon and night, there will be rain, moderate rain and scattered thunderstorms, locally heavy to very heavy rain. In thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind.

Heavy rain needs to be monitored in the stages of garden care, pest and disease prevention, and goods preservation.

In the coming sessions, developments on the London exchange, New York exchange, USD/VND exchange rate, inventory and demand for export purchases will continue to dominate domestic prices.

The GBPJPY pair ended the temporary negative rebound by reaching 217.15 level, to begin activating with the positivity of the main indicators by its rally above 217.55 level to rally sharply towards 218.55 approaching the initial barrier that we expected in our previous report.

The attempt of the main indicators to provide extra positive momentum will reinforce the chances pf breaching the barrier at 218.65, to open the way for targeting extra positive stations that might begin at 219.40 and 220.00, while the risk of changing the main trend is represented by breaking 216.35 level and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 217.80 and 219.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the continuation of forming weak sideways trading by Platinum price in the last period, its negative stability below the extra barrier at $1695.00 confirms its surrender to the suggested negative scenario, to settle near $1595.00.

Stochastic attempt to provide negative momentum by its stability below 50 level makes us prefer reaching $1550.00, where breaking it will open the way for reaching extra negative stations near $1515.00 and $1475.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1515.00 and $1640.00

Trend forecast: Bearish