Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:

Frequently asked questions

2026.07.24 2026.07.24
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 24.07.26–31.07.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 79.67 with a target of 105.17–115.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 79.67. Stop Loss: below 78.00, Take Profit: 105.17–115.50.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 79.67 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50. A sell signal: the level of 79.67 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 81.30, Take Profit: 67.00–58.50.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 79.67 with a target of 105.17–115.50.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 79.67 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50.

Analysis

On the weekly chart, correction (2) of larger degree has formed, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, ascending wave (3) is likely developing. Within it, wave 1 of (3) of smaller degree and correction 2 of (3) have formed, and wave 3 of (3) has started unfolding. On the H4 chart, wave i of 3 continues to develop, with wave (iii) of i unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 105.17–115.50. The level of 79.67 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

Copper price failed in breaching the barrier at $6.5100, forcing it to delay the bullish trend and providing a clear negative rebound, to settle near $6.2500, the current decline will not affect the chances of renewing the bullish trend, depending on the stability of the extra support at $6.1000, to wait for gathering positive momentum and begin forming bullish waves, to repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier.

While the decline below the additional support and providing negative close will increase the strength of the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $5.9200 and $5.8100.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.1500 and $6.5000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend