Failed Breakout Shifts Near-Term Risk

The intraday bearish reversal returned natural gas to the rising channel structure, indicating a failed breakout. Once a reversal occurs from one boundary of the channel, the other side becomes a potential target. This suggests further selling pressure if natural gas breaks below the 200-day moving average or fails to quickly recover above the top boundary of the channel. That makes the $3.11 support confluence an important near-term test for the bullish structure.

Broader Breakout Structure Still Supports Bulls

A second breakout of the rising channel within a few weeks of the first, which in each case followed a rise above long-term dynamic resistance represented by the 200-day moving average, is bullish behavior. It shows the potential for further upside if a pullback or consolidation holds key support levels, including the 20-day moving average, currently near $3.02.

$96.25 Becomes First Test on the Way Higher

If buyers can retain control, the first key target zone begins with the recent high of $106.84 and rises to the lower swing high of $109.74. But beforehand, strength needs to be seen, first with a recovery above an interim lower swing high at $96.25, followed by the lower swing high of $100.43. In addition, the falling 20-day moving average is at $96.34 and will soon dip below $96.25. This means that a recovery of $96.25 will also put crude oil back above the 20-day moving average, which would signal strengthening short-term bullish momentum.

2026.10.08 2026.10.08
Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 08.10.2026

Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I have identified entry signals for intraday traders.

Yesterday, gold prices continued to decline.

Major Takeaways

• USCrude: Oil is approaching the resistance A at 91.18–90.73.
• XAUUSD: Gold is undergoing correction following a decline and a test of the Gold Zone 4,081–4,070.
• EURUSD: The euro has reached the bearish target, declining from the resistance A of 1.1253–1.1245.

Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis

Oil is rising in a corrective move within the broader short-term downtrend. Today, prices are approaching the resistance A at 90.73–91.18. Once this resistance zone is tested, short positions could be considered with targets at 88.75 and 86.30.

If the resistance A is pierced today, the correction could extend toward the resistance B at 92.95–93.61. This zone marks the trend boundary and may provide another opportunity to open short positions.

USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance A at 91.18–90.73. TakeProfit: 88.75, 86.30. StopLoss: 92.24.

Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis

Yesterday, gold prices continued to decline, reaching the Gold Zone at 4,070–4,081. Significant selling emerged in this zone, triggering a corrective rebound.

Today, prices are trading within this correction. If the price reaches the new resistance zone at 4,169–4,179, short positions could be considered in this area with targets at 4,123 and 4,066.

XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance A at 4,179–4,169. TakeProfit: 4,123, 4,066. StopLoss: 4,203.

Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis

The euro continues to trade within a short-term downtrend. Yesterday, the price reached the first sell target near 1.1661, while the second target is the October 5 low. As a result, hold short positions opened yesterday near the resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245.

If the price slides below the October 5 low, the next bearish target will be the Target Zone 3 at 1.1123–1.1106. Otherwise, the price could rebound and retest the resistance A.

EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Hold short positions opened near resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245. TakeProfit: 1.1161. StopLoss: at breakeven.

Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

Natural gas gapped higher to kick off the Thursday session, testing the $3.30 level. The $3.30 level has been important a couple of times recently, as we have seen it offer significant resistance, especially during the summer around June, when there were concerns about air-conditioning demand.

But now we find ourselves 2 to 2.5 weeks away from rolling over into the December contract, so we start to think about heating. At night in places like Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland, it is getting to roughly 45 degrees, and that will cause a little bit of heating demand. The problem, of course, is that during the day it is still 75 degrees.

Gold continued to decline in recent intraday trading, affected by its movement along a main short-term bearish trend line, while the negative pressure resulting from trading below the EMA50 remains in place. The EMA50 is acting as dynamic resistance, intensifying the bearish pressure around the price, particularly as negative signals continue to emerge from the relative strength indicators.

Spot gold is trading lower Wednesday after failing to extend Tuesday’s bounce from $4,103.52. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.

A trade through $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through $4,103.52 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Overtaking this level could extend the recovery into the 50% level at $4,319.61, followed closely by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.64.

On the downside, a break through $4,103.52 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10.

What to Watch

The Fed minutes and the 10-year auction are what gold has to get through Wednesday. Both hit with the dollar firm again and the long end back near its highs.

I’m watching the 10-year more than any single line in the minutes. The auction shows what it costs to get somebody to own long-dated paper right now. Gold has been trading off that number all week. The minutes are the other half. Traders already know the committee hiked in September. What they don’t know is how many officials saw the jump in long-term yields as doing some of the Fed’s work for it. That’s the part that decides how December stays priced. The dollar is the third piece. It’s back within reach of Monday’s high with gold leaning on its own low.

Spot gold topped at $4,170.00 early and slid back toward Tuesday’s $4,103.52 low by mid-morning in London. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down and spot gold remains below the 61.8% level at $4,230.51 and the 50-day moving average.

Trend Channel Breakout Opens Path Higher

Following the reclaim of the 200-day moving average, last week’s high was exceeded as noted above, and that was followed by a rise above the upper boundary of a rising trend channel. That upper boundary area may see resistance and stall the ascent but if support is confirmed near the 200-day moving average and followed by strength, a continuation higher to challenge last month’s peak of $3.317 could occur.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade natural gas, please visit our educational area.

Platinum price remains under negative pressure, with the price currently attempting to stabilize below the support level at $1705.00, increasing the chances of activating the previously suggested bearish scenario. We reiterate the importance of a daily close below the current support, which would strengthen the chances of targeting $1660.00 and $1605.00 in succession in the near term.

However, a return to stability above $1705.00 would force the price into mixed trading, with room for some gains as it advances toward the key resistance level at $1840.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1660.00 and $1740.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Despite the lack of positive momentum in natural gas price recently, its repeated stability above the additional support level at $2.850 reinforces the dominance of the previously suggested bullish trajectory, with the price currently advancing toward $3.120.

We expect the price to renew its bullish attempts and pressure the 55-period EMA, which has recently formed an important barrier at $3.250. Breaking above this level would open the way toward further positive targets, starting at $3.420 and $3.550, respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.950 and $3.250

Trend forecast: Bullish

Coffee price continued to form strong bullish waves, moving further away from the pivotal support level at 269.00, as it responded to the positive signals from the main indicators and recorded notable gains, reaching 305.00 and thereby achieving the targets suggested in the previous report.

Currently, with the price attempting to establish 295.10 as additional support and positive momentum available, we expect it to resume its bullish advance, targeting 311.10 in the near term, followed by 320.75, closing the previously formed price gap.

The expected trading range for today is between 294.00 and 311.10

Trend forecast: Bullish