Momentum has been building since last week’s bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern. That advance was reinforced by a reclaim of several key resistance levels, including the 20-Day moving average. If today’s low of $3.02 is broken, natural gas could revisit support near the long-term anchored VWAP, now at $2.96, with further downside risk toward the 20-Day moving average at $2.89. For now, though, the market continues to trade well above those levels, suggesting that buyers remain in control.
Watching the 50-Day Average
The 50-Day moving average is a critical pivot. A sustained advance and daily close above this average would open the door for a rally through the July swing high of $3.19 and potentially toward the 200-Day average, now near $3.50. Conversely, another rejection here would not be surprising given the nearly 20% rally off the recent $2.62 low. A brief consolidation or pullback would provide a healthier setup for continuation, rather than a straight-line advance.
Weekly Confirmation in Play
On the larger timeframe, natural gas continues to show signs of strength. Last week produced a wide-ranging bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, supported by a bullish reversal confirmation this week. A weekly close above last week’s high of $3.02 would cement the breakout and bolster the case for a push through current resistance. That confirmation, coupled with strong price behavior above the AVWAP and 20-Day average, underscores improving demand.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Copper price touched $4.5950 yesterday, to approach from the initial positive target, which forces it to form sideways fluctuation, due to its neediness to the positive momentum by the stability of stochastic with the oversold level.
While the stability of the price is within the bullish track, by moving away from the extra support at $4.2600, by providing positive momentum by the moving average 55, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing $4.6200 level and reaching the next target near $4.7500.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.4200 and $4.7500
Gold Price (XAU/USD) Pushes Above $3,600 as Safe-Haven Demand Soars
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm at $3,611 per ounce after opening futures at $3,619.80, marking a 0.7% rise from Wednesday’s close at $3,593.20. The metal has surged 45.3% year-over-year, climbing from $2,490 in September 2024, and is now up 36% year-to-date. Momentum was fueled by investors hedging against inflation, fiscal stress, and political intervention in central banking. The rally has firmly positioned bullion as one of the most aggressive outperformers in 2025, eclipsing major equity benchmarks and rivaling cryptocurrencies.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs argue that if President Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve erodes its independence, capital flight from Treasuries could ignite a historic move in XAU/USD. Their “tail-risk” model points to $4,500, with a 1% reallocation of Treasury holdings capable of driving gold toward $5,000 per ounce. At present, gold ETFs represent just 1% of the Treasury market’s size. If even a sliver of bond capital rotates into bullion, the demand shock could break records. Current spot stands at $3,596 on Comex, with traders placing a 98% probability on a September Fed rate cut, further enhancing the non-yielding asset’s appeal.
Central Bank Buying Intensifies, Dollar Weakens
The rise is not retail-led alone. Global central banks have been net buyers, reducing exposure to dollar-denominated assets amid $37 trillion in U.S. government debt and an annual interest bill nearing $1 trillion. Gold now accounts for about 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro. The U.S. Dollar Index has slipped to 95.63, showing a –0.25 correlation with gold, its weakest in two years. This negative relationship amplifies bullion’s upside as the dollar weakens under debt concerns and tariff-driven inflation.
While the global narrative is bullish, gold miners are experiencing mixed results. Metals Exploration PLC (MTL), focused on operations in the Philippines and Nicaragua, reported interim revenue of $118.9 million, up 31% year-on-year, thanks to gold averaging $2,884 per ounce versus $2,190 last year. However, pretax profit plunged 71% to $16.8 million due to a sharp drop in impairment gains and a spike in other expenses to $18.8 million. Operating profit still more than doubled to $29.1 million, while free cash flow hit a record $70.7 million. Shares fell 2.1% to 12.64 pence in London trading, highlighting the volatility miners face even with bullion at historic highs.
Technical Outlook: $3,500 as Support, $3,700 Resistance
Chart watchers view $3,500 as the critical support zone for XAU/USD, a level tested during Thursday’s session before rebounding. Analysts highlight $3,700 as the next breakout threshold, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ near-term year-end projection. RSI remains elevated, suggesting strong momentum but leaving room for corrective pullbacks. Traders are monitoring U.S. nonfarm payrolls closely, with weak labor data likely to provide the next impulse higher. Any breach below $3,500 could trigger quick tests of $3,450, but dips remain aggressively bought.
Philippines Gold Price Trends Show Global Translation
Local data shows how international bullion rallies ripple into emerging markets. In the Philippines, gold prices slipped slightly to PHP 6,495.52 per gram from PHP 6,544.82 the day before, translating international prices into peso terms. A troy ounce cost PHP 202,033.50, reflecting minor currency-driven fluctuations but broadly aligned with the global rise above $3,600.
Macro Drivers: Debt Burden and Tariff Risks
U.S. government debt at 126% of GDP and political tension over the Fed have become primary catalysts for bullion demand. Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook and open criticism of Jerome Powell sparked renewed doubts about the Fed’s autonomy. Fiscal deficits—spending $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue—are forcing bond issuance at a time when investors are questioning Treasuries as reliable stores of value. Tariff battles have added further uncertainty, pushing global investors to diversify into gold.
Long-Term Institutional Shifts Reinforce the Rally
Billionaire hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio argue that the U.S. is facing 1930s-style political and fiscal risks, making gold indispensable as a store of value. ETF assets are surging, and bullion now challenges Treasuries as a reserve hedge. Bridgewater and other funds have been reallocating capital toward metals, underscoring that this rally is not a speculative flash but a structural shift.
Storage levels remain robust across all regions, with the South Central posting a modest 4 Bcf increase. The East and Midwest both added 28 Bcf, while the Pacific region saw a rare draw of 4 Bcf. The Mountain region was flat. While the report didn’t surprise, it underlines that the supply-demand balance remains tilted toward surplus.
How Is Weather and Demand Playing Into Price Action?
Recent gains in natural gas were driven by forecasts for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northern U.S. during the September 8–17 period. However, the near-term forecast (Sep 2–8) shows mild conditions across key demand regions, including the Midwest and Southeast, capping electricity-driven gas demand this week.
U.S. power output, however, has been a supportive factor. According to the Edison Electric Institute, electricity generation rose 7.7% y/y for the week ending August 23, contributing to firm cooling demand. Even so, it’s unclear how much of this is already priced in given near-record gas production.
Is Surging U.S. Production Overpowering Bullish Setups?
U.S. dry gas production remains near record highs, holding at 105.7 Bcf/day, up 3.3% y/y. LNG feedgas demand came in at 15.0 Bcf/day, slightly down week-over-week. Meanwhile, active U.S. natural gas rigs declined by three to 122 last week, just below the two-year high of 124 reached in early August. Although rig counts dipped, elevated output continues to weigh on any bullish momentum, especially as inventories remain healthy and demand has not spiked.
Silver correction from long-term highs at 41.45 has been contained right above $40.50.
Precious metals are trimming gains on Wednesday, but downside attempts remain limited with debt fears looming.
Technically, the XAG/USD is in a bearish correction within a broader bullish trend.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trimming losses during Thursday’s European session opening. The precious metal’s reversal from long-term highs at $41.45 has been contained at the $40.50 area, and the pair has returned to levels a few pips shy of $41.00. at the time of writing.
Precious metals are correcting lower on Thursday as dovish comments from Fed speakers eased market concerns about a global debt crisis. Nevertheless, investors’ appetite for risk remains subdued, which keeps XAG/USD’s downside attempts limited.
Technical Analysis: Correcting lower within a broader bullish trend
The technical picture shows a healthy downside correction, following a nearly 7% appreciation in a seven-day rally. The broader bullish trend remains in play, with the 4-hour RSI pulling back from overbought levels, but still above the key 50 line, and price action moving within an ascending channel.
Bears have been contained at the $40.55 level so far. Further down, the September 2 low, at 40.15, and the previous top, at $39.50, are seen as plausible targets for a corrective reversal.
Elliot Wave theorists would argue that the pair is on the fourth wave of a 5-wave bullish cycle. Immediate resistance is at Wednesday’s high, at the $41.45 area and the potential target of the fifth wave, at the confluence of the near-term channel top with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the early September rally, around $42.40.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The natural gas market has rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility.
We are currently testing the 50 Day EMA, which obviously will attract a lot of technical traders, and it has, at least so far, offered a bit of resistance that I think traders will watch very closely.
Ultimately, if we can break above there, it could bring more buyers into the market, at least until we get to the crucial 200 Day EMA.
The 200 Day EMA currently sits at the $3.26 level, so that I believe would end up being a bit of a “ceiling in the market” as things stand right now.
Seasonality
One of the most important things you need to learn about natural gas is that it most certainly has a season to it. What I mean by this is that it is the US contract, and therefore it will follow US weather patterns. At this point in time it’s very rare that it gets cold enough for heating to be a major driver of natural gas, which in the winter months most certainly is the case. It’s not necessarily that hot in the United States at the moment either, so producing electricity for air conditioning isn’t really a thought either. Because of this, I think there is still an argument to be made for this market being one that simply has no real reason to get strong at this point, and rallies could end up being selling opportunities.
If we were to break down below the $2.98 level, then I think you’ve would start to see a significant amount of downward pressure come into the picture. In that environment, I anticipate that natural gas could drop to the $2.80 level, perhaps even followed by the $2.60 level. An extraordinarily negative mood could even take natural gas down to the $2.50 level, but I think as we go deeper into the year, that’s less likely. I’m still looking for shorting opportunities and will love this bounce running out of momentum before taking advantage of the overall downtrend.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price touched $4.5950 yesterday, to approach from the initial positive target, which forces it to form sideways fluctuation, due to its neediness to the positive momentum by the stability of stochastic with the oversold level.
While the stability of the price is within the bullish track, by moving away from the extra support at $4.2600, by providing positive momentum by the moving average 55, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing $4.6200 level and reaching the next target near $4.7500.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.4200 and $4.7500
The session low of $2.96 was a higher daily low and marked a successful test of support around the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend bottom. After several failed attempts to sustain a breakout above that level, Wednesday’s bullish action cleared the AVWAP zone convincingly. It was the first day where the full range of the session was above that AVWAP. This follows a string of technical improvements beginning last Thursday with a break of the 20-Day moving average, a trendline breakout, and a move through the center line of a descending channel.
Convergence of Resistance Levels Ahead
Despite the recent bullish momentum, natural gas faces a confluence of potentially significant resistance. This includes the falling 50-Day average and two prior swing highs, all clustered between $3.15 and $3.19. The 50-Day moving average is particularly noteworthy as this marks the first test of the indicator as resistance since it failed as support in late June. The fact that the average is declining may shift resistance slightly lower, but it still represents the most important barrier to watch. A daily close above this level would be required before higher objectives can be considered.
Outlook Hinges on Trendline Reversal
A decisive move above the resistance cluster would also represent a failed breakdown from the long-term uptrend line. Traders should remain aware, however, that natural gas could continue to grind higher in the coming weeks while still trading beneath that angled uptrend line. For now, momentum favors the bulls, but the upcoming test of the 50-Day average will likely determine whether the counter-trend rally extends toward higher levels or stalls beneath resistance.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Oil Price Price – WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Struggle as OPEC+ Debates Supply Hike Amid Oversupply Risks
WTI and Brent Retreat on OPEC+ Supply Fears
Oil markets entered September under renewed pressure, with WTI crude (CL=F) sliding to $63.91 per barrel and Brent crude (BZ=F) retreating to $67.57, both down more than 2% intraday. The pullback followed reports that OPEC+ members are considering raising production targets at the upcoming September 7 meeting. The group, which still has about 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts in reserve, may tap into this buffer earlier than scheduled, shifting strategy back toward market share instead of price defense. Traders see this as a bearish tilt that could push the market into surplus by late 2025 unless countered by strong demand growth.
OPEC Production Dynamics and Market Sensitivity
Fresh surveys show OPEC crude output rising by 400,000 barrels per day in August, with total group production hitting 28.55 million bpd. Saudi Arabia accounted for over half of the increase, restoring barrels previously curbed. The United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, and Libya also contributed to the month-on-month gains. Kazakhstan overshot its quota by more than 2% while Iraq boosted exports despite disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government. These developments underscore the difficulty of enforcing compliance when oil trades above $60, incentivizing members to maximize revenues. Market reaction was swift, with Brent slipping below $68 immediately after the survey release, highlighting how even incremental OPEC supply adjustments ripple through benchmarks.
Geopolitical Pressures, Sanctions, and Russia’s Oil Strategy
Geopolitics added another layer of risk this week. A new EU-imposed price cap on Russian crude lowered the ceiling to $47.6 per barrel, down from the previous $60. Moscow has already discounted exports to India and Asia to stay competitive, with Indian refiners saving an estimated $12.6 billion in import costs so far in 2025 due to these discounts. U.S. sanctions have also intensified against networks disguising Iranian oil as Iraqi crude, constraining flows but creating alternative trade routes through Asia. While sanctions reduce headline exports from Iran and Russia, the rerouted barrels keep physical supply flowing, limiting the bullish impact.
Demand Signals and Macro Weakness
The demand side showed cracks as well. U.S. job openings fell to 7.18 million in July, below expectations of 7.37 million, feeding into recession fears and weighing on consumption outlooks. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. contracted for a sixth consecutive month, intensifying concerns about industrial oil demand. Europe’s inventories remain above seasonal averages, further dampening near-term bullish cases. China continues to absorb discounted Russian crude, shielding state-owned refiners like Petrobras from U.S. tariff fallout, but broader demand growth remains patchy outside Asia.
WTI Technical Levels and Trading Structure
WTI crude (CL=F) is testing critical technical markers. The $65 zone aligns with the 50-day moving average, acting as a battleground for bulls and bears. Tuesday’s session brought heavy volume into this area, but sellers regained control by Wednesday, showing a lack of conviction for sustained upside. Support is visible around $63.50–$64.00, while resistance sits overhead at $67. A decisive break below $63 would expose WTI to April’s low near $58, a level last tested when oversupply concerns peaked earlier this year. Brent (BZ=F) shows a similarly tight range, with $67 acting as near-term support and resistance building around $69.50–$70, where the 200-day EMA is located.
Corporate and Institutional Reactions
Oil’s weakness is reshaping corporate strategies. Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) was downgraded by Morgan Stanley to Underweight, with the bank highlighting that if Brent averages $60 in 2026, Equinor’s free cash flow could drop to $2.7 billion, barely covering its $4 billion dividend outlay. Buybacks are unlikely under that scenario, pressuring the stock. Meanwhile, BP (NYSE:BP) and Eni (BIT:ENI) confirmed a $5 billion investment in Angola to redevelop fields after national output fell below 1 million bpd, a move aimed at shoring up long-term supply despite weak spot prices. In Iraq, BP has also launched a $25 billion project in Kirkuk, targeting an extra 50,000–100,000 bpd of production in coming years, reinforcing that supermajors are still expanding capacity even as the market debates oversupply.
Outlook and Market Balance Risks
The oil market’s balance hangs on OPEC+ decisions this weekend. If the group authorizes additional output increases beyond the 2.2 million bpd already scheduled for September, the market could enter a pronounced surplus, with inventories swelling through 2026. Conversely, renewed geopolitical escalation—from Houthis targeting tankers in the Red Sea to new Trump administration sanctions on Russia and Iran—could restore a geopolitical premium that has recently faded. With WTI trading at $63.91 and Brent at $67.57, oil remains in bearish short-term territory, but its sensitivity to political shocks and supply compliance makes the outlook highly volatile.
Copper Price Analysis: HG=F Rides Dollar Weakness, Scrap Battles, and Construction Demand
Copper (HF=F) has once again become the focal point of the industrial metals trade, with prices on the London Metal Exchange holding just under the symbolic $10,000 per ton level and COMEX futures settling at $4.598 per pound, equivalent to $10,137 per ton. On September 2, three-month copper on the LME slipped fractionally to $9,882 per ton, while the most-traded Shanghai Futures Exchange contract traded at 79,660 yuan ($11,137), reflecting a narrow pullback after weeks of strength. Despite short-term hesitation linked to trade war concerns and a firmer U.S. dollar, copper remains supported by steady Chinese demand, institutional accumulation, and tightening long-term supply prospects.
Macro Drivers: Fed Policy, Dollar Dynamics, and Chinese Demand
Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its September meeting have weighed heavily on the dollar, supporting copper’s resilience. The dollar index climbed 0.2% to 97.873, putting pressure on commodities, yet copper’s dip remained shallow as China’s August PMI showed the fastest expansion in five months, driven by strong new orders. China continues to account for over 50% of global copper consumption, with visible demand rising nearly 10% year-over-year in H1 2025, according to Zijin Mining Group. This consumption trend, even amid patchy macro data, has prevented a deeper correction in copper despite broader trade frictions.
Technical Picture for HG=F and Resistance Levels
Copper’s breakout above its four-week consolidation phase in late August pushed LME contracts to $9,928 per ton, marking the start of a new uptrend that is still technically intact. Resistance remains firm at $10,200–$10,300 per ton, where selling has capped upside multiple times this year. On the downside, immediate support sits near $9,700, a level highlighted in late August forecasts, with a deeper floor at $9,300 if profit-taking accelerates. Technical traders argue that only a sustained close above $10,300 would unlock the pathway toward $11,000, last seen in early 2022.
European Scrap Tensions and China’s Buying Spree
A parallel story is developing in the copper scrap market. Chinese imports of European copper scrap rose 3.5% year-over-year in the first seven months of 2025, totaling more than 204,000 tons, creating severe shortages for German and EU smelters. German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche has publicly warned that large smelters are “no longer getting raw materials,” as Chinese buyers consistently outbid European competitors. Scrap represents a critical piece of the copper equation, requiring 85% less energy to process than primary ore and forming the backbone of Europe’s circular economy plans. With LME prices already volatile between $9,000–$10,000 per ton, the loss of scrap supply could further tighten European manufacturing chains, particularly in automotive and electrical equipment.
Structural Deficit Risks and Mining Supply Constraints
The supply gap looms large over copper’s medium-term outlook. Average ore grades have fallen from 1.6% in 1900 to just 0.6% today, according to USGS, raising extraction costs and slowing output growth. Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest producer, continues to struggle with higher costs from deeper mining, while new large-scale projects face 15–20 year development timelines. Years of underinvestment in exploration during periods of weak prices mean the pipeline of future mines is thin. The International Energy Agency projects global copper demand will rise from 25.2 million tonnes in 2023 to 30.1 million tonnes by 2030, driven primarily by electrification, EV infrastructure, and renewable energy projects. This sets the stage for a structural deficit in the late 2020s.
Impact on Construction Costs and U.S. Market Dynamics
In the U.S., copper has become a central driver of rising construction costs. National building costs climbed 2.7% in Q2 and 5.4% year-over-year, with Milwaukee posting a sharper 4.5% quarterly increase. Copper pipe prices rose 20% over two years, while copper wire added 10%, contributing to a 6.7% YoY construction cost spike in the region. Data center construction is a key demand driver, supported by growth in cloud and AI infrastructure. At the same time, tariffs on Canadian lumber have surged to 35%, lifting other material costs and magnifying copper’s role in total project budgets. Contractors report “hyper awareness” of copper prices as volatility threatens to derail project margins.
Investor Positioning and Industrial Implications
The current environment has drawn investor attention to copper producers and project developers. Companies like Axo Copper, Nicola Mining, and American West Metals are advancing exploration in anticipation of a market squeeze. At Axo’s La Huerta project in Jalisco, drill results have shown up to 7.4% copper over 7.6 meters, highlighting high-grade potential at a time when new supply is scarce. Investors comparing copper to uranium note similarities with the 2018–2020 period when weak prices masked future deficits, only for prices to later deliver triple-digit returns.
Verdict on Copper (HG=F) Outlook
With HG=F trading around $9,882–$10,137 per ton, the market remains caught between macro headwinds from trade policy and a strong long-term bullish setup built on supply deficits, China’s scrap acquisitions, and electrification demand. Technical levels at $10,300 are crucial to breaking higher, while downside risks hinge on dollar strength and profit-taking. The evidence from demand, constrained supply, and construction cost pressures indicates that copper retains a bullish profile. Despite short-term volatility, the imbalance between growing consumption and limited new supply argues in favor of further upside, positioning copper as a Buy on weakness and a core industrial metal play heading into 2026.
