Oil Price Outlook: WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Under Pressure From Geopolitics and Supply Risks

Crude oil markets remain volatile as WTI (CL=F) trades at $64.01, down 0.91%, and Brent (BZ=F) holds near $67.48, lower by 0.74%, reflecting the tug of war between strong U.S. supply, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and shifting demand flows from Asia and Europe. Despite steady demand, the equilibrium has been challenged by Russia-Ukraine tensions, tariff pressures, and heavy investment in renewables, while speculative flows continue to dictate weekly swings.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns to Oil (CL=F, BZ=F)

The war in Ukraine has reintroduced a meaningful geopolitical premium into both WTI and Brent benchmarks. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure hit eight refineries in August, cutting roughly 10% of refining capacity, and temporarily disrupting flows through the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Hungary and Slovakia. Over the weekend, a strike at Russia’s Baltic export port near St. Petersburg added to concerns. Russia, already struggling with seaborne oil shipments that hit a six-month low, now faces possible gasoline shortages at home, prompting the Kremlin to consider extending its export ban. Each incremental attack further tightens global supply expectations, making the $65–$70 per barrel range highly sensitive to further escalations. Analysts warn that each 500,000 barrels removed from Russian exports could shift Brent toward $75–$78 in a matter of weeks.

OPEC+ Strategy and Saudi Revenue Decline

Saudi Arabia’s Q2 oil export value fell 16% YoY, reflecting weaker pricing and pressure from record U.S. output. The Kingdom continues to balance fiscal needs with OPEC+ strategy, wary of pushing cuts too aggressively as it weighs competition with U.S. shale. The OPEC basket price sits at $69.65, marginally lower, suggesting member states are absorbing reduced revenues amid discounting to key buyers in Asia. India has ramped up U.S. crude imports as prices remain favorable, while still taking Russian barrels despite tariffs. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, faces a delicate fiscal situation, with breakeven budgets requiring oil closer to $80–85. This mismatch between current Brent levels at $67–68 and fiscal needs could force further production adjustments heading into Q4.

U.S. Supply Surges and EIA Record Data

According to the EIA, U.S. crude production hit a record in 2024, though growth has slowed compared to earlier years. Weekly output in June beat estimates, reinforcing America’s role as the swing producer. WTI’s rangebound action between $62.70 and $64.95 last week showed how resilient U.S. supply is at these levels. Even with strong exports to India and Europe, domestic production ensures no acute shortage is forming. Inventories, however, have drawn sharply, which, combined with a weaker dollar and speculation about Fed rate cuts, has kept a floor under WTI. Traders point to the $62.30–$65.20 speculative range as defining the short-term technical setup, with upside capped near $66 absent new geopolitical shocks.

European and Asian Demand Shifts

Europe is leaning more heavily on jet fuel imports from Asia, reaching record highs, while refining disruptions in California and ongoing Norwegian pipeline maintenance have added regional volatility. India’s refiners have expanded U.S. purchases, while also increasing discounted Russian crude despite tariff threats. China remains opportunistic, but its slowing industrial profits—down 1.7% in July—weigh on long-term demand growth. Still, Asia’s appetite remains strong enough to soak up discounted cargoes, preventing a steeper collapse in Brent. On the flip side, Chinese LNG imports have declined, reflecting a broader recalibration of its energy mix toward renewables and storage investments, leaving oil markets more sensitive to temporary demand shocks rather than structural growth.

Technical Outlook for WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F)

WTI struggled to sustain gains above $64.40 last week, reversing lower into the weekend and signaling exhaustion. The inability to clear the $65–$66 resistance highlights bearish undertones, even as speculative flows support short-term rallies. On the downside, $63.00 to $62.50 represents immediate support, with risks of a deeper slide toward $61.70 if macro sentiment worsens. Brent faces a similar picture, with resistance at $68.50–$69.20 and downside support at $66.00. A decisive break below these levels would invite a sharper selloff toward $63 for Brent, narrowing the spread to WTI. The technical picture suggests rangebound trading but with clear downside vulnerability unless geopolitical shocks intensify.

Investor Positioning and Sentiment

Speculative positioning in crude remains cautious, with traders unwilling to bid aggressively higher given ample U.S. supply and weak macro data from China. Large players are expected to return after the holiday weekend with volumes, but the overhang of geopolitical risk prevents aggressive shorting. Goldman Sachs projects oil falling below $55 in 2026, a reminder that current rallies may be short-lived unless backed by sustained supply disruptions. At present, crude appears in a fragile balance between bearish fundamentals and bullish geopolitical shocks, leaving sentiment prone to quick reversals.

Verdict: Buy, Sell, or Hold on Oil (CL=F, BZ=F)

At $64 for WTI and $67 for Brent, oil is trading below the fiscal comfort levels of OPEC producers, with downside risks capped by geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine. Fundamentals lean bearish with U.S. output at record highs and Chinese demand still fragile, but the geopolitical premium is back in play and could lift prices $5–10 above current ranges if attacks intensify. The technical picture argues for consolidation, but the risk-reward skews cautiously bullish given supply risks. Based on the current setup, WTI (CL=F) is a speculative Buy on dips near $62, while Brent (BZ=F) is a Hold, with a breakout above $70 required to confirm renewed momentum.

That’s TradingNEWS

WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Test Key Technical Levels

Oil markets began the week with WTI crude climbing 0.94% to $64.61 per barrel and Brent crude advancing 0.99% to $68.15. The rally coincides with thin U.S. holiday trading volumes but sits directly on the 50-day moving averages, a technical battleground where bulls and bears are both positioned aggressively. For WTI, $65 is the immediate pivot. A sustained move above opens the path toward $67, while repeated failures leave the market locked in the noisy consolidation that has defined the past two weeks. Brent shows a similar setup, with $67 serving as initial support and $70 the psychological target just beneath its 200-day moving average. Both benchmarks are range-bound, offering short-term trading windows rather than long-lasting trends, yet the balance may shift quickly as fundamental shocks mount.

India’s Strategic Russian Oil Imports Reshape Global Trade

Despite U.S. tariffs escalating to 50% on Indian goods, aimed at punishing New Delhi for its continued Russian crude purchases, India shows no signs of backing down. Data confirms that Russia accounted for 31.4% of Indian oil imports in July, well above Iraq at 17.1% and Saudi Arabia at 16.1%. The value of Russian barrels entering India reached $3.6 billion, versus around $2 billion for Iraqi and Saudi volumes. Indian refiners are still importing more than 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, a scale too large to replace quickly. For Washington, the dilemma is clear: squeezing India risks lifting global oil above $100 and reigniting U.S. inflation, yet stepping back exposes the limits of Western sanctions. China is already absorbing additional Russian barrels, and its ability to undercut sanctions further strengthens BRICS alignment. Oil prices remain hostage to these geopolitical calculations, where barrels are traded as much for political leverage as for supply and demand balance.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq Halt Shipments to Sanctioned Indian Buyer

Fresh tension emerged after Saudi Arabia and Iraq suspended shipments to an Indian refiner targeted by sanctions, underscoring how energy flows are increasingly politicized. While volumes remain modest compared to Russian supply, the move highlights that even Middle Eastern producers are not immune to Western pressure. Markets are weighing whether this suspension is symbolic or the start of a broader realignment. Should Indian refiners lean further on Russia to compensate, Moscow’s influence will strengthen, while Middle Eastern producers may quietly redirect barrels to Europe and China. That shift would alter tanker routes, insurance exposure, and freight costs, feeding volatility into already fragile oil pricing structures.

OPEC+ Production Trends and the Threat of Oversupply

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in Q4 2025, with WTI near $59.65. The bearish outlook reflects OPEC+ gradually unwinding production cuts and higher output from South America, tipping balances into oversupply. Wall Street banks echo this sentiment, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley collectively forecasting Brent in the low $60s for early 2026. For U.S. shale, the implications are severe. Breakeven levels for new wells hover just above $60, and if WTI dips beneath this threshold, rig counts and frac crews will contract further. Rig activity is already declining, though efficiency gains mask the immediate impact on output. A glut-driven slump below $60 would force the shale patch into another round of capex cuts, deepening the cycle of volatility.

Petronas Struggles Under Weak Pricing and Domestic Output Decline

Malaysia’s Petronas posted a 24% revenue decline and a 19% drop in after-tax profit in H1 2025, weighed down by weaker benchmark oil prices, foreign exchange pressures, and divestments. Production slipped 3.2% year-on-year to 2.403 million boepd, down from 2.482 million boepd. Domestic gas production and international liquid output were both lower. The company announced plans to trim its workforce by 10% to weather what it called “increasingly daunting headwinds.” Petronas expects subdued pricing conditions to persist, citing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and OPEC+’s unwinding of cuts. For global traders, these results confirm how weaker benchmarks filter through to national oil companies, forcing structural adjustments. Petronas’ challenges illustrate broader struggles among producers caught between sluggish demand recovery and rising geopolitical risk.

Geopolitical Flashpoints Add to the Risk Premium

Attacks on Russian refineries, drone strikes on South Sudanese flows, and Houthi missile claims against Red Sea tankers all remind investors that geopolitical risks are never far from the surface. Supply disruptions remain sporadic, but each incident reintroduces a risk premium that traders must price in. Europe is simultaneously importing record jet fuel volumes from Asia, underscoring how the supply chain remains fractured. These shifts in refined product flows ripple back into crude benchmarks, complicating demand forecasts. Markets are also watching the East Africa pipeline project and Congo offshore developments, both of which could modestly alter medium-term balances if they achieve scale. But near-term price action is more about political flashpoints than new supply coming online.

Technical Signals Point to Heavy Resistance Overhead

From a chart perspective, both WTI and Brent are wrestling with their 50-day moving averages. For WTI, holding above $65 is crucial, as a break could push quickly to $67 and then $70. Failure here risks another slide toward $62, where prior demand has emerged. Brent’s test at $68.15 sits in a congested band, with upside capped by $70–$71 and downside limited at $66. Momentum oscillators show neutral-to-weak bias, reflecting the indecision. The U.S. Dollar Index, trading around 97.70 after four straight declines, provides temporary support, as a weaker dollar typically boosts oil. But structural oversupply fears remain dominant, with technicals likely to follow fundamentals rather than dictate them.

Final Market Positioning: Buy, Sell, or Hold

With WTI crude (CL=F) at $64.61 and Brent (BZ=F) at $68.15, traders face a market torn between short-term bullish catalysts and looming oversupply. On the bullish side, geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar softness, and India’s defiance on Russian barrels inject strength. On the bearish side, EIA’s projection of Brent at $58 and WTI at $59 in early 2026, coupled with Wall Street consensus in the low $60s, casts a heavy shadow. For now, oil is a hold—attractive for tactical long positions into $67–$70 resistance but dangerous for long-term accumulation given looming supply. The next decisive move will hinge on OPEC+ policy, U.S. shale reaction, and whether geopolitical sparks ignite sustained disruption rather than sporadic risk premiums.

That’s TradingNEWS

• Gold price jumps to near $3,550 amid meltdown in bonds globally.
• Rising bonds yields indicate mounting fiscal concerns.
• Investors await key US JOLTS Job Openings data for July.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its winning streak for the seventh trading day on Wednesday. The precious metal posts a fresh all-time high near $3,550 as investors have dumped long-dated government bonds across the globe.

Lower yields on interest-bearing assets increase demand for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Surging government bond yields signify mounting concerns over government fiscal debt, which often lead to a decline in welfare spending, and henceforth increases appeal of safe-haven bets.

Another reason behind strength in the Gold price is firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the policy meeting this month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an almost 92% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Lately, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members supported interest rate cuts amid escalating downside employment risks.

Meanwhile, investors await United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the job data to get cues about the current status of the labor demand.

US employers are expected to have posted fresh 7.4 million jobs, almost in line with the prior reading of 7.44 million.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades in uncharted territory after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern often leads to high volume and wider ticks on the upside.

Rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,410 indicates that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 75.00. A corrective move in the Gold price looks likely as the momentum oscillator turns overbought.

Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of $3,600 would be the key hurdle for the pair.

Gold daily chart

Despite the neediness of the CADCHF to the positive momentum in the last period, but it its positive stability above the support at 0.5780 supports the chances of activating the suggested bullish correctional attempts, to fluctuate near 0.5830.

By the above image, we notice stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum by its stability above 20 level, to increase the chances for targeting the positive stations by its rally towards 0.5910, surpassing it might succeed in renewing the pressure on the barrier at 0.6020 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.5800 and 0.5910

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (ETHUSD) price witnessed fluctuated trading in its last intraday levels, due to the stability of the key support at $4,250, gaining the bullish momentum that helped it to settle temporarily, as the price is under negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, amid the dominance of the bearish correctional trend on the short-term basis, and its trading alongside a bias line, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels.

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Measured Moves Indicate Higher Targets

The chart highlights measured moves that preceded the triangle breakout, producing targets that match percentage gains of 11.4% and 18.4%, or price increases of $356 and $543. Using the $3,423 high as the breakout level, projected measured move targets sit at $3,779 and $3,966 based on price. These align with the continuation potential implied by the triangle formation.

Near-Term Objectives in Focus

Gold is now advancing toward the first target zone at $3,563 to $3,603, derived from a long-term 223.6% Fibonacci extension and a rising ABCD projection. Given the strength of the current trend, this zone may not provide significant resistance, though interim pauses cannot be ruled out. Key support rests at the prior breakout point of $3,500, followed by former swing highs at $3,451 and $3,439. Holding above these levels maintains the breakout structure and preserves bullish momentum.

Additional Resistance Levels Ahead

Beyond the $3,603 zone, traders should watch for potential resistance around $3,664 to $3,668, where two indicators converge. While the higher measured move target near $3,966 could be reached longer term, shorter-term resistance zones may provide reaction points and consolidation phases along the way.

Long-Term Bullish Outlook Confirmed

Gold confirmed a long-term bullish breakout last week, closing at its highest monthly level ever after overcoming resistance from the past two months. The last comparable rally out of consolidation produced four consecutive weeks of gains. With this being the first week of a new breakout phase, historical precedent suggests further upside is favored before the current move exhausts.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold (XAU/USD) Breaks Records Above $3,500 as Fed Cuts and Political Risks Fuel Rally

The gold market is surging with an intensity not seen in years, smashing through the $3,500 level and printing a new all-time record. Spot gold (XAU/USD) peaked at $3,516.31 per ounce during Asian hours, surpassing April’s previous high of $3,500.05, before stabilizing near $3,491.47 in New York, still higher on the day. U.S. gold futures for December delivery advanced to $3,554.30, while intraday trades briefly touched $3,580. With prices up more than 33% year-to-date, bullion has doubled since early 2023, cementing itself as the market’s strongest performing safe-haven asset.

Fed Policy Uncertainty and Trump’s Pressure on Independence

The rally is underpinned by the conviction that the Federal Reserve is preparing its first rate cut in nine months. Markets are pricing a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut on September 17, with some speculation of a 50 bps move if nonfarm payrolls later this week miss estimates. Trump’s repeated attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his attempt to oust Governor Lisa Cook have escalated fears of compromised independence. A federal appeals court ruling that Trump’s global tariffs were illegally imposed has further rattled confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Analysts warn that the political overhang, combined with inflationary risks if the Fed bows to pressure, has created a near-perfect environment for higher gold.

Central Banks and Institutional Allocations Accelerate Flows

Beyond macro policy, structural demand from sovereign buyers is reinforcing the surge. Central banks in India, China, Turkey, and Poland have been expanding reserves, with 2024 marking the year gold overtook the euro as the second-largest global reserve asset after the dollar. This “de-dollarization” trend continues into 2025, with foreign central banks’ U.S. Treasury allocations shrinking while gold holdings rise. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, reported a 1.01% increase in holdings last week to 977.68 tons, its highest since 2022. Indian pension funds are also seeking approval to add gold ETFs to portfolios, a sign that institutional allocations remain strong even at record levels.

Trade Conflict, Dollar Weakness, and Geopolitical Uncertainty Drive Demand

Gold’s explosive rise reflects a confluence of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. Trump’s escalating tariffs and rhetoric against trading partners have reignited global trade tensions, while the dollar index languishes near one-month lows. With the greenback under pressure, overseas buyers find gold cheaper, reinforcing momentum. European bond markets mirror this trend, with U.K. 30-year gilt yields hitting a 27-year high, French 30-year yields at a 16-year high, and German 30-year bonds at their costliest since 2011. Investors are fleeing sovereign debt, turning instead to gold and silver as defensive hedges. Geopolitical backdrops—from Russia’s war in Ukraine to ongoing Middle East volatility—layer additional urgency for diversification into bullion.

Seasonal Strength, ETF Inflows, and Consumer Buying in Asia

The timing of this breakout coincides with gold’s seasonally strongest demand window. Analysts at Standard Chartered project average prices of $3,500/oz in Q3 and $3,700/oz in Q4, underscoring that momentum may extend into year-end. China and India, historically price-sensitive, are seeing jewelry buyers pivot into investment-grade coins and bars instead of exiting at high prices. This shift keeps Asian consumption steady even at elevated levels. Combined with robust ETF inflows, the demand profile suggests current prices are not discouraging participation but rather reinforcing gold’s role as the asset of choice during uncertainty.

Silver and Precious Metals Follow Gold Higher

The surge in gold is mirrored by strength in silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver (XAG/USD) touched $40.64/oz, its highest since 2011, before settling near $40.48. Platinum trades at $1,389.75 and palladium at $1,121.75, both lower on the day but still supported by safe-haven flows. With the gold-silver ratio still above its historical range of 60–80, analysts argue silver has greater upside potential in relative terms. The synchronized rise in precious metals reinforces broad investor hedging strategies against monetary and geopolitical shocks.

Forecasts Point to $3,700 and Potential $4,000 in 2026

Strategists from UBS, BNP Paribas, and Goldman Sachs see this as more than a seasonal move. Projections range from $3,700 by mid-2026 to $4,000 per ounce if Fed rate cuts multiply or political crises deepen. BNP’s David Wilson stressed that Trump’s overt challenge to Fed independence combined with U.S. fiscal deficits provides the “perfect setup” for further gold appreciation. Goldman Sachs highlighted ETF inflows as the hidden accelerant that could sustain the rally, projecting $4,000 in the next 12 months. The resilience of gold above $3,500 suggests markets are already positioning for this upper range.

Jobs Report and Fed Decision Will Be Pivotal

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is now the most critical data point. A weak print could reignite speculation of a 50 bps cut, fueling additional gains in XAU/USD. Even without such an aggressive move, the structural bid from central banks, ETF flows, and retail demand provides a strong base. Investors remain highly sensitive to Trump’s next move on Fed governance, with the market interpreting every headline as another justification to add bullion exposure.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Verdict

With spot prices near $3,491.47 and futures around $3,554.30, gold has broken key technical resistance and entered uncharted territory. Strong central bank buying, ETF inflows, and macro uncertainty support continued upside. Risks lie in a potential Fed surprise of no cut, which could temporarily cap momentum, but structural demand and political instability provide a solid floor above $3,400.

Verdict: Buy. Gold’s trajectory toward $3,700 by Q4 2025 and possible tests of $4,000 in 2026 positions XAU/USD as the strongest hedge in global markets, with silver offering leveraged upside in parallel.

That’s TradingNEWS

The coffee price ended its last bullish rally by surpassing the barrier at 370.60, confirming its move to a new positive station by recording 390.30 level, which forces it to form some sideways trading due to stochastic exit from the overbought level as appears in the above image.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for the positive momentum, which allows it to settle above 370.00 level, then begin targeting extra positive stations by reaching 400.55 and 411.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 375.00 and 400.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold extends its six-day winning streak to clinch fresh lifetime highs above $3,500 early Tuesday.
• The US Dollar rebounds from over one-month lows, limiting Gold’s upside for now.    
• Fed rate cut bets and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical woes keep Gold underpinned.
• Gold eyes more gains even as the RSI enters the overbought region on the daily sticks.

Gold has quickly reversed an uptick to fresh all-time-highs above $3,500, gathering pace for a sustained move again above that level. All eyes now turn to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI due later in the day for further trading directives.  

Gold capitalizes on Fed rate outlook, geopolitics

Gold extends its bullish momentum into a sixth straight day, but the further upside appears capped (for now), in the face of a resurgent buying interest in the US Dollar (USD).

The USD sees a short-covering bounce from over one-month troughs across the board, driven by profit taking, as traders cash in before the releases of crucial US business surveys and employment data due this week.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is on the radar next as speculations over a jumbo interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month grow. A 25 basis points (bps) September rate cut is fully baked in, with the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool showing a 90% chance.

The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to advance to 49 in August from 48 in July, remaining in contraction.

On the data disappointment, the Greenback could come under renewed selling pressure, keeping the record rally in Gold alive.

Additionally, concerns over the Fed’s autonomy amidst US President Donald Trump’s continued efforts to rope in more dovish appointments to the US central bank remain a drag on the USD, while supporting the bright metal.

The geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine also remain in focus, underpinning the traditional safe-haven Gold. On Sunday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine plans new strikes deep into Russia after weeks of intensified attacks on Russian energy assets, per Reuters.

Trump noted last week that he was deeply disappointed, particularly in light of his recent attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the war.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold eyes more upside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not heavily overbought. The leading indicator is currently near 71.   

The Bull Cross of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA also keeps the buoyant tone intact around the bullion.  

The immediate topside hurdle is seen at the new record high of $,3509, above which the $3,550 psychological level will be challenged.

Conversely, any pullback will challenge the intraday of $3,475 initially, followed by this week’s low of $3,437.

The $3,400 round level will be attacked on a sustained break below the latter.

Natural gas price ended its bullish correctional rally by testing the neckline of the head and shoulders that is represented by $3.050 level, taking advantage of providing negative momentum by stochastic, reaching towards $2.950 level.

The main stability below the main resistance to $3.180 represents a main factor to confirm the bearish scenario, keeping our bearish expectation that might target $2.810 level reaching the barrier at $2.620.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.810 and $3.100

Trend forecast: Bearish