2026.09.04 2026.09.04
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 04.09.26–11.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 79.00 with a target of 105.17–115.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 79.00. Stop Loss: below 77.50, Take Profit: 105.17–115.50.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 79.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50. A sell signal: the level of 79.00 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 80.50, Take Profit: 67.00–58.50.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 79.00 with a target of 105.17–115.50.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 79.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50.

Analysis

On the weekly chart, a descending correction has likely finished developing as the second wave of larger degree (2) and an ascending third wave (3) is forming. On the daily chart, apparently, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave 2 of (3), and wave 3 of (3) has started unfolding. Wave i of 3 appears to continue forming on the H4 chart, with wave (iii) of i unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 105.17–115.50. The level of 79.00 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 67.00–58.50.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC filings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously increased by 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, coffee prices on September 5th averaged 94,800 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 94,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices are still 94,200 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 95,000 VND/kg, reversing to increase by 1,000 VND/kg. This is the highest level in today’s price list.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 25,845 VND/USD, down 30 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices increase and decrease interspersed.

According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract remained unchanged, anchored at the $3,298/ton mark. The November 2026 futures increased by $56/ton, listed at $3,430/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 saw an increase of $55-57/ton, to $3,383 – $3,415/ton.

Similarly, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the session at 324.35 cents/lb. The December 2026 term increased slightly by 0.25 US cents/lb, equivalent to 0.08%, raising the cost price to 295.60 cents/lb. Further forwards increased from 2.35 to 3.40 cents/lb, anchored in the 287.4 – 283.4 cents/lb range.

Assessments and forecasts

Arabica prices on the ICE exchange have fallen to a 5-week low, while Robusta fell to a 2.5-month low. This development reflects market concerns about the possibility of increased coffee supply to the market in the near future.

For Arabica, Brazil is a noteworthy factor as new crop yield prospects are improved. StoneX raises its 2026-2027 crop yield forecast to a record 77.2 million bags, 2.6% higher than the forecast made in March. The return of rainfall at the time coffee trees enter the flowering stage also creates more grounds for expectations of a favorable crop.

For the domestic market, in the short term, domestic coffee prices are likely to recover after a deep decline, however, the increase is not too sudden, continuing to accumulate around the area of 94,000 – 95,000 VND/kg.

The market is expected to maintain a probing state and can only clearly define the new trend when the first assessments of Vietnam’s actual harvest output next season begin to appear.

2026.09.04 2026.09.04
XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 04.09.26–11.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 4,282.50 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 4,282.50. Stop Loss: below 4,215.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 4,282.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00. A sell signal: the level of 4,282.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 4,350.00, Take Profit: 4,003.25–3,720.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 4,282.50 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 4,282.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.

Analysis

An ascending third wave of larger degree (3) is presumably developing on the weekly chart. Within it, a descending correction has been completed as the fourth wave of smaller degree 4 of (3). Apparently, the fifth wave 5 of (3) started developing on the daily chart, with wave i of 5 forming as its part. The H4 time frame shows that wave (iii) of i of 5 has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave (iv) of i, and wave (v) of i is currently developing. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to 4,900.00–5,610.00. The level of 4,282.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

Platinum price kept its stability above $1695.00 support in its last trading, confirming the stability of the bullish scenario, recording clear gains by approaching the initial target at $1860.00. 

The attempt of the price to settle above the 55 moving average level reinforces the chances of gathering the positive momentum, to expect surpassing $1860.00 level and reaching the extra stations near $1910.00 and $1955.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1785.00 and $1900.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market continued to decrease compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, coffee prices on September 4th averaged 93,800 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 93,700 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices are still 93. 200 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai, coffee prices are at 93,700 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg compared to the previous session.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 94,000 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg. This is the highest level in today’s price list.

The domestic coffee market has had a consecutive week of price decreases, generally losing 1,800 VND/kg compared to the beginning of the week.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 25,875 VND/USD, an increase of 15 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices are dominated by red color.

According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract slipped by 27 USD/ton, anchored at 3,298 USD/ton. The November 2026 futures fell by another 32 USD/ton, listed at 3,374 USD/ton. The January 2027-5. 2027 futures saw a decrease from 35-37 USD/ton, down to 3,326-3,360 USD/ton.

Similarly, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract closed down 4.05 US cents/lb, equivalent to 1.23%, to 324.35 cents/lb. The December 2026 term closed down 2.75 US cents/lb, equivalent to 0.92%, to 295.35 cents/lb. Further forwards fell from 2.7 to 3.15 cents/lb, anchored in the 280.00 – 285.05 cents/lb range.

Assessments and forecasts

According to statistics from the Japanese Customs authority, in the first 6 months of 2026, Japan’s coffee imports reached 173.0 thousand tons, worth nearly 1.20 billion USD, down 9.3% in volume, but up 2.4% in value compared to the same period in 2025.

In the first 6 months of 2026, the average import price of coffee into Japan reached 6,922 USD/ton, an increase of 12.9% compared to the same period in 2025. In which, the average import price of Japanese coffee from major markets all increased compared to the same period in 2025, only imports from Vietnam decreased. The import price of Japanese coffee from Vietnam decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period in 2025, down to 4,462 USD/ton.

Vietnam is the second largest coffee supplier to Japan in the first 6 months of 2026, reaching 55.5 thousand tons, worth 247.8 million USD, an increase of 5.0% in volume, but a decrease of 12.2% in value compared to the same period in 2025. Vietnam’s coffee market share in Japan’s total imports increased from 27.74% in the first 6 months of 2025 to 32.10% in the first 6 months of 2026.

Trading at $4,472 as of the 4-hour chart, Gold price showed a sharp recovery from $4,304. I find it interesting that price bounced back to the $4,422–$4,465 resistance zone. With the broader trend line still limiting the rally, this zone actually creates a legitimate price ceiling and a decision zone as opposed to confirming a price reversal.

I have my eyes on the $4,465–$4,487 resistance zone, as the next goal will be the $4,564 level should price break cleanly above $4,487. On the other hand, $4,304 will be the first support of interest, followed by the $4,365 and $4,422 support zones. If these penetrate, attention will return to the broader $4,221–$4,263 price demand zone.

Gold posted a series of consecutive gains during its latest intraday trading, despite the continued dominance of the short-term bearish corrective trend. Negative pressure continues as the price trades below EMA50, which threatens to reverse these gains in the near term, particularly with the emerging negative divergence in the relative strength indicators after they reached extremely overbought levels, excessively so compared with the price movement, along with the beginning of a bearish crossover.