Short-term Outlook Falters

Note that for the most part trading today in natural gas has stayed above prior resistance at 3.64. That was the 2023 high and top of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, it potentially was an impactful breakout that should eventually see a continuation to the upside. However, in the short term the possibility of a pullback exists and improves on a daily close below 3.64. The target zone that was breached today consisted of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 3.85 and the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (orange) at 3.87.

False Channel Breakout

It is not just the bearish reaction to the target zone, however that is a cause for concern, resistance was also seen around the top channel line of a rising trend channel. Notice that on Friday natural gas touched the line specifically as resistance as the high of the day at 3.83 was at the line. Arguably, the top channel line could be moved a little higher and touch the November swing high rather than the October swing high. In that case, the argument for short-term resistance is amplified.

Watch Price Action Around 3.56 and 3.0

A correction, if it were to occur, could take the form of relatively sideways consolidation or a deeper pullback. The rise above the top of the channel is an indication that prices may be getting too far from the mean and due for a pullback and realignment. Other price levels to watch besides the 3.64 high include the most recent trend high at 3.56 and the 20-Day MA trend indicator at 3.32. If a rally above today’s high occurs before a correction, then the next upside target is 4.06.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Diễn biến thị trường cà phê world

Tuần qua, trên thị trường thế giới, giá cà phê Robusta và Arabica có đã trải qua những biến động đáng kể. Giá cà phê Robusta kỳ hạn giao tháng January 2025 trên sàn London giảm 98 USD/tấn, trong khi giá cà phê Arabica kỳ hạn giao tháng March 2025 trên sàn New York tăng 5,5 cent/lb.

Nguyên nhân chính dẫn đến sự biến động này là do ảnh hưởng của việc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) hạ lãi suất, tác động đến tỷ giá hối đoái và thị trường hàng hóa. Đồng USD tăng giảm liên tục, cùng với việc đồng Real của Brazil suy yếu, khuyến khích các nhà sản xuất tại Brazil đẩy mạnh xuất khẩu, làm tăng nguồn cung trên thị trường.

Thị trường cà phê trong nước tiếp tục giảm nhẹ

Tại Việt Nam, mưa nhiều tại khu vực Tây Nguyên thời gian qua đã ảnh hưởng đến tiến độ thu hoạch cà phê, gây lo ngại về sản lượng và chất lượng. Hiện tại, vụ thu hoạch cà phê đã hoàn thành được khoảng 40-50%. Dự báo sản lượng cà phê của Việt Nam trong niên vụ này có thể đạt khoảng 1,6 triệu tấn, trong khi tiêu thụ nội địa dự kiến từ 270.000 đến 300.000 tấn.

Cà phê luôn đảm bảo chất lượng khi người dân thu hoạch 100% cà phê chín. Ảnh: Hiền Mai

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 23, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước trung bình ở mức 120.600 đồng/kg, giảm -500 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 121.000 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak is 120.500 VND/kg, down -500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.000 VND/kg, down -500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, coffee prices at Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 120.300 đồng/kg, giảm -700 đồng/kg và giá cà phê tại Dak Nong Today’s price is 121.000 VND/kg, also down -300 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Nhận định giá cà phê ngày mai 24/ 12 / 2024

Trong tuần qua, giá cà phê trong nước cũng đã trải qua biến động khôngnhỏ, với mức giảm từ 3.000 – 4.000 đồng/kg. Hiện tại, giá cà phê dao động trong khoảng 120.500 – 121.000 đồng/kg.

Theo thống kê từ Hiệp hội cà phê ca cao Việt Nam (VICOFA), trong nửa đầu tháng December 2024, các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu được 48.371 tấn cà phê, kim ngạch xuất khẩu gần 264 triệu USD, giảm 51,5% về lượng và giảm 6,5% về giá trị so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Lũy kế đến December 15, 2024, Việt Nam xuất khẩu trên 1,26 triệu tấn cà phê, kim ngạch xuất khẩu gần 5,2 tỷ USD, giảm 16,5% về lượng nhưng tăng 32,4% về giá trị so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Với những yếu tố trên, giới chuyên gia dự báo giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 24, 2024 sẽ duy trì ổn định trong khoảng 120.500 – 121.500 đồng/kg, chưa có dấu hiệu tăng hoặc giảm đột biến. Tuy nhiên, thị trường cà phê luôn chịu ảnh hưởng từ nhiều yếu tố kinh tế và thời tiết, do đó, người trồng và kinh doanh cà phê nên theo dõi sát sao các diễn biến để có những quyết định kịp thời và phù hợp.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,612.01

• Disappointing United States data further undermined the market’s mood.
• Financial markets move in slow motion ahead of the Christmas holidays.
• XAU/USD is poised to extend its slide below $2,600 amid renewed USD demand.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, although it’s holding above $2,600 a troy ounce. The bright metal peaked early in Asia at $2,633.14 amid the broad US Dollar’s weakness, later easing on a souring mood backing demand for the American currency. Action, however, remains limited as investors gear up for the winter holidays. Most major markets will be closed in the upcoming days amid the Christmas celebration.

The poor performance of Wall Street is adding to the US Dollar’s strength. Following some solid advances on Friday, the three major United States (US) indexes trade with a soft tone, with only the Nasdaq Composite posting a modest advance. An uptick in government bond yields further supports the Greenback. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 4.56%, up roughly 4 basis points (bps).

Meanwhile, the US anticipated some macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday as President Joe Biden issued an executive order closing the federal government on December 24. Durable Goods Orders fell 1.1% in November, worse than the 0.4% decline expected. Additionally, CB Consumer Confidence edged sharply lower in December, falling to 104.7 from 112.8 in November and missing the expected 112.9.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD could extend its slide in the upcoming sessions. The daily chart shows that it is pressuring its low and a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), trading around the latter for the first time since last February. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, have lost its directional strength above the current level, suggesting selling pressure remains. Finally, technical indicators head south within negative levels, although without a strong momentum. The pair may extend its slump should the near-term slide extend below $2,600.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has fallen below the 100 and 200 SMAs while it is currently battling around a bearish 20 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are piercing their midlines with firmly downward slopes, albeit still near neutral levels.  

Support levels: 2,604.20 2,591.70 2,582.90  

Resistance levels: 2,617.55 2,632.00 2,645.20

• Silver price recovers further to near $29.90 even though US bond yields rise as Fed officials support fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.
• Soft monthly US PCE inflation raised uncertainty over the Fed’s shallow rate-cut path.
• Silver price is expected to struggle in an attempt to extend the upward-sloping trendline above $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends Friday’s recovery move to near $29.90 in Monday’s European session. The white metal rebounded strongly on Friday from a more than three-month low of $28.75 after the release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which showed that price pressures grew at a slower pace than expectations.

Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose steadily by 2.8% but slower than estimates of 2.9%. The month-on-month headline and core PCE inflation grew marginally by 0.1%, raising uncertainty over whether the Fed will follow a shallow rate-cut path in 2025, as projected in the Fed’s dot plot from the December policy meeting.

The recent Fed dot plot showed that officials collectively see Federal Fund rates heading to 3.9% by the end of 2025.

Silver prices advanced on Monday even though US Treasury yields remain higher as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers support fewer interest rate cuts next year. 10-year US Treasury yields moved higher to near 4.54%. Generally, higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticked higher to near 108.00.

On Friday, a string of Fed officials backed a shallow policy-easing approach amid a slowdown in the disinflation trend, better labor market conditions than previously anticipated, and uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming policies.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers to test the breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline near $30.00, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. The white metal wobbles around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the longer-term outlook is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it fails to break above that level.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Gold trades flat around $2,625 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• More cautious approach to monetary easing next year from the Fed drags the Gold price lower. 
• Softer US PCE inflation data, the upturn in China’s Gold demand and geopolitical risks might the downside for XAU/USD.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady near $2,625 during the early Asian session on Monday. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) might weigh on the yellow metal. However, the softer Greenback after the weaker inflation report could cap its downside.

The Fed lowered interest rates in the December meeting as expected but signaled that it will slow the pace at which borrowing costs fall any further. The Fed’s dot plot, a chart that projects the future path of interest rates, indicated a half-percentage point rate cut in 2025, compared with a full percentage cut projected in September. This, in turn, continues to lift the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated Gold as higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of gold. 

On the other hand, softer-than-expected US inflation data could help limit the precious metal’s losses. The US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.4% YoY in November from 2.3% in October. The reading came in below the market consensus of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the Core PCE jumped 2.8% in November, compared to 2.8% In the previous reading, but below the 2.9% expected.

The upturn in Gold demand in China might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside as China is the world’s largest Gold consumer nation. With less than 6 weeks until Chinese New Year, the world’s heaviest gold-buying festival overtakes Diwali in India. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.  

• Silver price recovers some lost ground to around $29.60 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• The negative picture of Silver price prevails as the price holds below the 100-day EMA with the bearish RSI indicator. 
• The key support level emerges at the $29.10-$29.00 regions. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) extends the recovery to near $29.60 during the early Asian session on Monday, bolstered by the softer-than-expected US November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data. However, the upside of the white metal might be limited amid the cautious approach to monetary easing next year from the Federal Reserve (Fed). 

According to the daily chart, the bearish outlook of the Silver price remains in play as the price holds below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline around 39.20, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out. 

The potential support level for XAG/USD emerges in the $29.10-$29.00 zone, representing the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and psychological level. A breach of this level could expose $27.70, the low of September 9. The additional downside filter to watch is $26.45, the low of August 8. 

On the upside, the crucial upside barrier for the precious metal is seen at the $30.00 level. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to $30.60, the 100-day EMA. Further north, the next hurdle is located at $32.17, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart

• Gold price holds recovery from monthly lows due to year-end unwinding.        
• The US Dollar bounces after Friday’s profit-taking slide, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields. 
• Gold price remains a ‘sell-on-bounce’ trade while below 21-day SMA and amid  bearish daily RSI  

Gold price is looking to extend its recovery from monthly lows into a third day on Monday as buyers hold their grip above the $2,600 mark. However, the further upside appears elusive amid a broad US Dollar (USD) bounce and a pause in the decline of US Treasury bond yields.  

Will Gold price extend its recovery momentum?

Markets cashed in on their USD long positions on Friday, taking the excuse of a slight cooldown in the monthly US headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for November. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed an increase of just 0.1% from October, missing the forecast for a 0.2% growth while the headline PCE Price Index rose 0.1% over the month in November versus the 0.2% increase expected.

This is because the odds for a January interest rate pause by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remained at around 90% following Wednesday’s hawkish Fed rate cut decision, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show.

The US central bank lowered policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% range last week, as widely expected. However, the Fed’s Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot, predicted two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025. That is half a percentage point less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated as of September.

The US Dollar corrected in sync with the US Treasury bond yields, allowing the non-yielding Gold price extend its upswing from monthly lows of $2,583.

In Monday’s trading so far, Gold price clings to recent gains as USD buyers jump back on the bids, with traders preferring to hold the buck heading into the Christmas holiday break.

The ongoing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Gaza and anticipation of potential protectionism by US President-elect Donald Trump underpin the haven demand for the US Dollar, making the USD-denominated Gold price more expensive for foreign buyers.

Gold traders will likely take cues from the broader market sentiment before placing fresh bets on the bright metal.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same as the downside bias remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding below the 50 level.

Recapturing the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,645 on a daily closing basis is critical to reversing the downtrend. Acceptance above that level will call for a test of the 50-day SMA at $2,669.

Further up, the $2,700 mark will challenge the bearish commitments.

If the recovery fades, Gold sellers retest the 100-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,610, below which the monthly low of $2,583 will be threatened.

On a sustained downside, the November 15 and 14 lows at $2,555 and $2,537, respectively, could come into play.

Coffee price world increase, giảm trái chiều

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn London cập nhật lúc 16 giờ 00 phút ngày December 21, 2024, tiếp tục “lao dốc” vào phiên giao dịch thứ 4 liên tiếp trong tuần, từ 50-55 USD/tấn, dao động 4849 – 5011 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng January 2025 là 5011 USD/tấn (giảm 50 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 5002 USD/tấn (giảm 44 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 4934 USD/tấn (giảm 57 USD/tấn) và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 4849 USD/tấn (giảm 55 USD/tấn).

Ngược lại, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York, lại đồng loạt tăng nhẹ so với phiên giao dịch ngày hôm qua, mức tăng từ 0.65 – 1.25 cent/lb, dao động 302.75 – 325.00 cent/lb. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 325.00 cent/lb (tăng 1.25 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 319.30 cent/lb (tăng 1 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 311.65 cent/lb (tăng 0.65 cent/lb) và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 302.75 cent/lb (tăng 1 cent/lb).

Trong khi đó, kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Arabica Brazil cập nhật lúc 16 giờ 00 phút cũng hầu hết tại các kỳ hạn có mức tăng nhẹ từ 0.85 – 1.30 USD/tấn so với ngày hôm qua, dao động từ 387.85 – 398.10 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 398.10 USD/tấn (tăng 1.30 USD/tấn); kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 387.85 USD/tấn (tăng 0.85 USD/tấn); trong khi đó, kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 lại giảm xuống 406.45 USD/tấn (giảm 1.25 USD/tấn). Riêng, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng December 2024 không giao dịch.

Giá cà phê trong nước giảm phiên thứ 4 liên tiếp

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 16 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 21, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước trung bình ở mức 121.100 đồng/kg, giảm -800 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

Nhiều nhà vườn tại Gia Lai vẫn chưa thu hoạch xong cà phê chín do năm nay thiếu hụt nhân công. Ảnh: Hiền Mai

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 121.300 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak có mức 121.000 đồng/kg, giảm -1.000 đồng so với hôm qua. Giá cà phê tại Lam Dong có mức giá 120.500 đồng/kg, giảm -1.000 đồng so với giá giao dịch hôm qua. Trong khi đó, giá cà phê tại Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 121.000 đồng/kg, giảm -800 đồng/kg. Giá cà phê tại Dak Nong hôm nay có giá 121.300 đồng/kg, cũng giảm -700 đồng/kg so với hôm qua.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe luôn cố gắng để bám sát nhất với từng vùng, tuy nhiên sẽ có những ngày giá niêm yết không hoàn toàn khớp với giá cà phê thu mua tại địa phương của bà con, nhưng Y5Cafe cho rằng thông tin được niêm yết là nguồn thông tin tham khảo giá trị cho bà con và doanh nghiệp thu mua cà phê.

Nhận định giá cà phê ngày mai December 22, 2024

Theo báo cáo mới nhất của Bộ Nông nghiệp Mỹ (USDA) cho thấy, sản lượng cà phê toàn cầu trong niên vụ 2024-2025 dự báo sẽ tăng 4% so với niên vụ trước, đạt 174,855 triệu bao, với sản lượng cà phê arabica tăng 1,5% lên 97,845 triệu bao và sản lượng cà phê robusta tăng 7,5% lên 77,01 triệu bao.

However, ending coffee stocks in 2024-2025 are forecast to fall 6,6% to a 24-year low of 20,9 million bags, compared with 22,3 million bags in 2023-2024.

Do đó, các chuyên gia nhận định, giá cà phê ngày mai December 22, 2024 có thể quay đầu tăng trở lại.

Long-term Bullish Reversal

Today’s high was very close to completing a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of an interim downswing, at 3.85. That price level is joined by 3.87, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (orange). Together, they create a potential resistance zone from 3.85 to 3.87. The 38.3% long-term Fibonacci target was established following the February 2024 bottom.

Nonetheless, the breakout above the 3.64 swing high produces a bullish trend reversal signal on the larger time frame. The larger price patterns have greater potential significance. Therefore, the possibility of a more aggressive rally in natural gas increases following a daily close above 3.64. Since it is Friday, this would also produce confirmation on the weekly time frame.

Higher Targets Move into View

What looks interesting is that there is only an interim target identified if the 3.87 price level is exceeded. A smaller rising ABCD pattern (purple) shows a 161.8% Fibonacci extended target for the CD leg of the pattern at 4.06. From there the next potential upside target looks to be up at 4.33. Another smaller rising ABCD pattern (red) targets 4.33, its initial 100% target. Nonetheless, in the shorter term a pullback is always a possibility.

Watch Monthly Chart Closing

In addition to today’s long-term bullish trend reversal signal, natural gas has a chance of confirming the bullish trend reversal signal on a monthly chart by ending the year above 3.64. That would confirm the bullish reversal on the monthly time frame. An initial long-term target is up at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level measuring the full downtrend that began from the 2022 high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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