The GBPJPY pair failed to surpass 193.30 barrier yesterday, to push it to form new negative rebound and notice its consolidation near 191.25 now, hinting its surrender to the negative track again.

We notice that the consolidation of the MA55 above the mentioned barrier to confirm confining trading within the negative track for now, to expect suffering additional losses by attacking 190.55 level soon, followed by repeating the pressure on 189.60 support line.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.55 and 192.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Brent oil price rallied upwards strongly yesterday to test 77.05$ level, and attempted to breach it but it consolidated below it, as the EMA50 formed solid resistance that prevented the price to continue the rise, noticing that the price begins today with bearish bias that hints heading to resume the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, which its targets begin by breaking 75.66$ to confirm heading towards 74.00$ as a next main station.

Stochastic shows negative signals that support the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 77.05$.

The expected trading range for today is between 74.90$ support and 77.90$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Intraday Rebound Recovers Key Levels

The drop to a new retracement low of $71.22 earlier in Tuesday’s session triggered a breakdown below the 50-Day MA at $75.23. This is generally bearish, but the intraday recovery reclaimed the 50-Day line, which is a bullish sign. Sellers had the chance to take it lower and they couldn’t do it. In other words, there was a failed breakout through a pivot level. Failed breakouts can provide signals for the opposite direction.

Whether that bullish indication continues remains to be seen. But it does show the market recognizing the 50-Day line. Therefore, it becomes a key short-term pivot level that should show signs of support if tested again. Moreover, if crude falls back below the 50-Day line and stays below it, that would be a short-term bearish sign.

Watch and Wait?

In addition to the failure of support at the 50-Day MA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $72.32 was also exceeded to the downside. Therefore, today’s potentially bullish behavior may not result in further strength, and the correction could continue. As noted above, the first sign of further weakness would be a drop below 50-Day MA. Today’s low price would then provide the next key lower pivot level, and if that low fails as support, the 78.6% retracement is down at $70.03. It would become the next lower target. A couple more days of price history should help provide other price levels.

Upside Breakout Above $73.93

On the upside, a breakout above today’s high of $73.93 shows strength. But crude oil would be heading up into a resistance zone starting with the nearby internal trendline. There was a five-day consolidation range during the recent decline following a drop below the 200-Day MA, currently at $74.95. The area around the 200-Day MA could show some resistance on the way up, as well as the 20-Day MA.

A little above the 200-Day line is the 20-Day MA at $75.95. That looks like the next more significant upside pivot since it was tested as resistance during intraday volatility on Monday. Notice that Monday’s high of $75.82 saw resistance a little below the 20-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weak Price Action Tuesday

Nonetheless, Monday’s bullish action showed strength, but the day ended weak. Natural gas closed below the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The current bounce off support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement last week should have more upside to go. An advance above today’s high of $3.35 would provide the next sign of strength, followed by Monday’s high at $3.41.

First, it will have to challenge a potential resistance zone from $3.51 to $3.52, consisting of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-Day MA, respectively. Certainly, it looks likely that price zone will be tested as resistance. And be aware there is a downtrend line near to the 50-Day line. It can be used to help gauge strength or weakness.

50-Day MA is Key

The price area around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.69, would be the next higher potential resistance zone. But the 50-Day line generally has greater significance for the bull trend. In the bigger picture, following a bullish breakout it is common to eventually see a bearish correction to test that prior resistance area and see if it now represents support. And there are different degrees of retracement, which can provide clues as to strength or weakness.

Natural gas broke out of large symmetrical triangle pattern November 20 last year and that led to a rally to a peak of $4.37. The breakout level was $3.02 and last week’s swing low was $2.99. Support was seen in the around confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.03, a rising trendline, and a key prior resistance level.

Further Clarity by Mid-February

Although trendlines generally don’t provide good signals by themselves, they can assist the analysis. Notice that a downtrend line and uptrend line are converging on February 18. This means that one of those lines is broken before then and that could provide further clarity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) faces clear negative pressure to move below 100000.00$ now, affected by stochastic negativity, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as consolidating below this level will stop the morning suggested positive scenario and lead the price to visit 95195.00$ areas on the near-term basis.

Now, the price needs to trade above 100000.00$ again to revive the bullish wave that its first main target located at 105000.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 97500.00$ support and 105000.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,840.28

• Relief headlines related to US President Trump’s tariffs helped to lift the mood.
• The JOLTS Job Openings report stood at 7.6 million in December.
• XAU/USD is overbought, but the record rally is far from over.

Spot Gold keeps reaching all-time highs on a daily basis, with XAU/USD hitting $2,845.54 on Tuesday and trading nearby in the mid-American session. The risk-averse environment triggered by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled demand for the bright metal. Relief headlines on that front, however, put mild pressure on the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the American session opening, further pushing XAU/USD north.

After pushing tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada over the weekend, US President Trump postponed applying levies for 30 days to both neighbouring countries after the respective governments committed to increasing their border security with the US. Meanwhile, China announced retaliatory tariffs, although those won’t come into effect in the upcoming days, which means China and the US may strike a deal before trade tensions escalate.

Financial markets are clearly in a better mood, with most global indexes posting gains. Wall Street stands in the green, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way up.

Additionally, the US published the December Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that the number of job openings on the last day of December stood at 7.6 million, down from the 8.09 million posted in November and below the 8 million anticipated. The news put additional pressure on the USD ahead of the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The US is expected to have added 170K new jobs in January, down from the 256K gained in December. The figure, despite softer, still hints at a strong labor market. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD pressures the upper end of the ascendant channel, coming from the January 6 low at $2,614.44, indicating the bullish run may continue in the upcoming days. The pair is overbought according to technical readings in the daily chart, although the Momentum indicator has turned flat. At the same time, Gold develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north far above the longer ones, currently at around $2,735.90.

Gold is set to keep rallying in the near term. The 4-hour shows approaches to a bullish 20 SMA attract buyers and result in higher highs, suggesting buyers are willing to add on dips. The 100 and 200 SMAs gain upward traction below the shorter one, also in line with the dominant upward strength. Finally, technical indicators aim north, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator entering overbought territory.

Support levels: 2,828.90 2,812.60 2,800.00

Resistance levels: 2,845.60 2,860.00 2,875.00

• Silver climbs back closer to over a one-month high retested the previous day.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Any meaningful corrective slide might now be seen as a buying opportunity. 

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and sticks to its positive bias, above mid-$31.00s through the first half of the European session. The white metal, however, lacks follow-through and remains below the $31.70-$31.75 barrier, or its highest level since December 12 retested on Monday. 

From a technical perspective, last week’s breakout through the $31.00 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October-December fall and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – was seen as a key trigger for bulls. Apart from this, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. 

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $31.70-$31.75 immediate resistance before positioning for any further gains. The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the $32.00 mark and test the next relevant hurdle near the $32.30-$32.40 area, nearing the 61.8% Fibo. level. The momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the $33.00 round-figure mark. 

On the flip side, the $31.10-$31.00 confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate slide further towards the $30.25 support zone. This is followed by the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt aggressive technical selling and drag the white metal to the $29.55 region en route to the $29.00 mark.

Silver daily chart

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold price shows slight bearish bias, noticing that this decline is confined within minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, breaching 2821.00$ will provide good positive motive that supports the expectations of continuing the bullish trend in the upcoming period.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for today unless breaking 2810.00$ and holding below it, reminding you that our next main target is located at 2850.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2800.00$ support and 2850.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Forex pairs & markets covered in this week’s weekly forex forecast & forex analysis:

USD (DXY), EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD.

Crude Oil, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY.

Gold Analysis – XAU/USD and Silver Analysis – XAG/USD.