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4 12, 2024

Copper price could fall to $8 500 as Trump win boosts dollar, threatens demand

By |2024-12-04T13:36:00+02:00December 4, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


SHANGHAI – Copper prices could fall towards $8 500 a metric ton within the next four months on expectations that demand will be hurt by potential trade disruptions when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January, copper industry participants said.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMCU3 was traded at $8 915 a ton at 08:52 GMT, having shed 8% in less than 10 days since Trump won the US Presidential election.

The pressure on prices reflects heightened concerns around the impact on growth from potential trade policy from the new U.S. administration, analyst Nicholas Snowdon of Mercuria Energy Trading told the CRU World Copper Conference Asia.

Near-term prices are also being suppressed by the weight of inventory, Snowdon said, forecasting a surplus of nearly half a million tons in the first quarter of 2025 due to stock build-up during the Chinese New Year holiday starting in late January and demand weakness in the West.

“It is quite feasible that by March, we will be sitting on global cathode stocks of just over a million tons,” he said.

LME copper could fall to $8,500 by the end of the first quarter next year, most traders, producers, brokers and analysts surveyed by Reuters said during the annual copper industry gathering this week in Shanghai.

Others at the event said they expect prices to range between $9 000 to $9 500 next year, citing similar fundamentals to 2024.

A strong dollar, boosted by its safe haven status, will also make dollar-priced copper more expensive to holders of other currencies, said a broker and an analyst.

Citi analysts on Wednesday revised down their copper price forecast to $8 500 a ton within three months, from $9 500 previously, due to likely US trade tariff hikes and weaker-than-expected Chinese stimulus so far.

But prices are unlikely to fall below $8 500 because buyers would snap up copper at that level, which is more than 20% below the historic high hit in May this year of $11 104.50, a China-based analyst said.

Project Blue analyst Jonathan Barnes said LME copper prices could average between $9 300 to $9 400 over the next three months, with a near-term dip towards $8 500 possible as markets digest the implications of a Trump presidency, with 2025 prices seen averaging between $9 475 and $9 575.

In the longer-term, prices are likely to be supported by demand driven by possible Chinese stimulus moves next year, analysts said.

Copper prices are also cushioned by disruptions in mine supply, with analysts forecasting a deficit next year to range from 500,000 tons to above one-million tons, forcing smelters to cut cathode output.

CRU expects the copper price to recover to $10 000 by the end of March 2025 and potentially hit $15 000 by 2029, backed by energy transition demand and mine supply tightness.

“In the near term (there is) downside risk for price, but the structural story is not dead … and we do see that starting to prevail more through the mid-second half of next year,” Mercuria’s Snowdon said.



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4 12, 2024

XAU/USD awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech for a fresh directional impetus

By |2024-12-04T07:33:02+02:00December 4, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price stays supported near $2,650 ahead of US data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.    
  • The US Dollar derives strength from risk aversion on China’s woes and the Fed’s future rate cuts uncertainty.
  • Technically, Gold price regains the 21-day SMA at $2,636, but the daily RSI flatlines near 50.

Gold price is holding onto minor bids early Wednesday, struggling to build on the previous bounce, anticipating a fresh batch of top-tier US economic data releases and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech.   

Gold price looks to US ADP data and Powell for fresh cues

Tuesday’s US JOLTs Job Openings data indicated a stronger-than-expected labor market after rising to 7.744 million in the reported period. Data surpassed the expected 7.48M increase. The upbeat labor data from the US briefly lifted the US Dollar (USD) across the board, capping the Gold price rebound near $2,655.

However, Gold buyers retained control as the Greenback failed to sustain the uptick. The data failed to alter the market’s expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed later this month. Markets are currently pricing at a 73% probability of a Dec Fed rate reduction, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, more or less the same as a day ago.

In Wednesday’s trading so far, Gold price is struggling to extend its upside as the USD remains in demand due to a risk-averse market environment. China’s economic concerns and US-Sino trade tensions continue to dent risk sentiment. China’s Caixin Services PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.5 in November against the expected increase to 52.5 following October’s 52.0 figure.

On Tuesday, China’s Commerce Ministry announced a ban on exports of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the US with immediate effect, in response to the latest crackdown on China’s chip sector by US President Joe Biden’s administration.          

If risk-aversion intensifies, Gold price could face a tailwind effect as it is considered a traditional safety net. However, the next directional move in Gold price hinges on the US ADP Employment Change data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech. The US private sector is expected to see a job gain of 150K in November, compared to 233K in October.

A worse-than-expected labor data could revive expectations of future Fed rate cuts beyond December, fuelling a fresh advance in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. But any reaction to the US data is likely to be shorted-lived as Powell’s words are set to shape up the market expectations of the Fed’s easing trajectory, influencing Gold price action in the lead-up to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data.

It’s worth mentioning that it will be Powell’s last appearance before the Fed enters the ‘blackout period’ on December 7 ahead of the December 17-18 policy meeting.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold’s price extends its struggle with critical short-term 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,636.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits listlessly beneath the 50 level, indicating a lack of clear directional bias.  

However, the previous week’s Bear Cross warrants caution for Gold buyers.

Therefore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s words are likely critical for the next directional move in Gold price.

Recapturing the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at $2,636 is critical for buyers to revive the recovery momentum.

The next relevant resistance aligns at the 50-day SMA at $2,669, above which the $2,700 level will be in sight.

On the downside, Gold sellers need to crack the $2,621 static support to challenge the previous week’s low of $2,605.

A sustained break of that level could expose the 100-day SMA at $2,579.

Economic Indicator

Fed’s Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Dec 04, 2024 18:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus:

Previous:

Source: Federal Reserve

 



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3 12, 2024

XAU/USD keeps struggling for direction

By |2024-12-03T19:25:51+02:00December 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


XAU/USD Current price: $2,647.80

  • Geopolitical tensions in South Korea and France undermined the market’s mood.
  • The US reported higher-than-anticipated job openings in October, according to the JOLTS report.
  • XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish in the near term, a directional breakout not yet in sight.

The US Dollar (USD) gained upward traction during American trading hours after spending the first half of the day on the back foot amid a better market mood. XAU/USD retreats from an intraday high of $2,655.50 but retains the $2640 mark at the time of writing, as the USD benefits from a deteriorated market mood.

The market sentiment deteriorated following the release of the United States (US) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings report, showing the number of openings in the last business day of October stood at 7.74 million, according to the report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The reading was higher than the 7.37 million openings in September and beat the market expectation of 7.48 million.

Fresh geopolitical tensions in Asia also undermine the mood. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law. The army closed the Parliament while representatives voted to block the president’s declaration. The SK Won plunged vs the USD, providing the latter with fresh impetus. News coming from France are no better. The minority government seems to be on the brink of collapse, as opposition lawmakers from the left and the far right vowed to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s Cabinet, according to AP news.

Meanwhile, US indexes trade in the red. Asian and European equities advanced, limiting USD strength, but Wall Street could not follow the lead. Even further, US government bond yields are back on the rise, underpinning the American currency.

Other than that, investors await more US employment-related data scheduled throughout the week. The November ADP report on private job creation is expected to show that 150K new positions were created in the sector on Wednesday. The most relevant figures will be out on Friday when the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair is pretty much unchanged from its opening and still confined to familiar levels. The Momentum indicator aims higher above its 100 level, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 48. At the same time, the XAU/USD pair barely holds above a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing below the current level, losing their former strength but still aiming north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance. The pair keeps hovering around a directionless 20 SMA while midway between also flat 100 and 200 SMAs. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally lower right below their midlines, lacking strength enough to confirm another leg lower.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels:  2,655.50 2,671.55 2,688.65



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3 12, 2024

XAG/USD remains capped below $31.00, further consolidation cannot be ruled out: Analytics and Market news from 3 December 2024 07:11

By |2024-12-03T11:20:54+02:00December 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price climbs to around $30.90 in Tuesday’s early European session, up 1.24% on the day. 
  • Silver crosses above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out with the neutral RSI indicator. 
  • The first upside barrier is located at $31.68; the initial support level is seen at $30.50.

The Silver price (XAG/USD) gains traction to near $30.90 during the early European session on Tuesday. The white metal edges higher due to the potential stimulus measures from China and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. 

However, JPMorgan analysts expect a near-term downside for base metals in early 2025 due to potential US tariffs on Chinese goods but see a recovery later in the year, bolstered by stronger Chinese economic stimulus and improved valuations.

According to the daily chart, Silver is set to resume its upside as the price crosses above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, indicating the neutral momentum of the white metal. 

The immediate resistance level for XAG/USD emerges near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of $31.68. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the $32.90-$33.00 zone, representing the psychological level and the high of November 5. The additional upside filter to watch is $34.55, the high of October 29. 

In the bearish event, sustained trading below $30.50, the 100-day EMA, could see a drop to $29.65, the low of November 28. A breach of the mentioned level could expose $27.70, the low of September 9. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) Daily Chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

 

 





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3 12, 2024

XAU/USD buyers appear non-committal ahead of US labor data

By |2024-12-03T07:18:41+02:00December 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price nurses losses below $2,650 early Tuesday, awaits US JOLTS survey for fresh impetus.   
  • US Dollar recovers from Fedspeak-induced pain as market mood sours on China concerns, looming Trump tariffs threat.
  • Technically, Gold price stays below the 21-day SMA at $2,641 with a bearish daily RSI.

Gold price is nursing losses below $2,650 in Asian trades on Tuesday, though remaining in the recent range, awaiting the key US employment data for further trading directives. The US JOLTS Job Openings data will set off the critical week of top-tier labor data, offering hints on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future interest rate cuts.

Gold price awaits US data for fresh cues on the Fed policy

The focus now seems to have shifted toward the sentiment surrounding the Fed policy outlook following the latest speeches from several Fed policymakers and ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

The US Dollar (USD) returned to the red in American trading on Monday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that “policy is still restrictive enough that an additional cut at our next meeting will not dramatically change the stance of monetary policy and allow ample scope to later slow the pace of rate cuts, if needed, to maintain progress toward our inflation target.”

The Greenback erased gains from the first half of Monday’s trading, spurred by broad risk-aversion as traders took account of US President-elect Donald Trump’s weekend warning against the so-called ‘BRICS’ nations. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa if they create a new currency or support another currency that would replace the Greenback.

However, the revival of the haven demand for the USD early Tuesday keeps Gold buyers on the back seat. Persistent China’s economic concerns and the global tariff threat from Trump remain a drag on investors’ sentiment.

The next direction in Gold price will likely hinge on the upcoming US employment data and their impact on the Fed rate cut expectations. Markets are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, up from about 65% seen a day ago. Dovish Fed expectations tend to benefit the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

Meanwhile, Gold traders also remain wary of the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Iran, which could have a strong bearing on the traditional safe-haven asset, Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having closed below the critical short-term 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, now at $2,641, Gold buyers seem reluctant to step in.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the 50 level, justifying the cautious approach.

The previous week’s Bear Cross also remains in play, adding to the downside risks in Gold price.

Gold sellers need to crack the $2,621 static support to challenge the previous week’s low of $2,605.

A sustained drop below that level could expose the 100-day SMA at $2,577.

Conversely, recapturing the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance at $2,641 is critical to reviving the recent recovery.

The next relevant resistance aligns at the 50-day SMA at $2,669, above which the $2,700 level will be on buyers’ radars.

Economic Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

Read more.

 



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3 12, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Tests First Key Support Following Breakout

By |2024-12-03T01:11:44+02:00December 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Will Support at 3.16 Prior Swing High Hold?

Previous resistance around the June peak of 3.16 was tested as support today. It has stalled the decline so far, but whether it continues to do so remains to be seen. The 50% retracement level is at 3.13, and it was almost reached today. Although natural gas has reached a price zone where support may be seen there is no sign of increasing demand or a bullish reversal. Therefore, the expectation is for a continuation lower upon a decisive drop below today’s low.

Lower Target Zone From 3.04 to 2.90

If natural gas does fall below today’s low and continues to decline, then previous resistance from the 3.02 swing high may be the next area of support. However, there are price levels nearby to be aware of as well. One guide is provided by the internal uptrend line. But clearer price levels where support may be seen are from 3.04 to 2.90.

A falling ABCD pattern (purple) reaches its 100% downside target around 3.04. Then there is both a prior swing high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 3.02. And most importantly, the 20-Day MA is at 3.01. The 20-Day line has been successfully tested twice as support since it was reclaimed on October 29.

First Signs of Bullish Reversal Above 3.28

There is also the possibility that the day’s low price completed a retracement. If that is the case a decisive rally above today’s high of 3.28 indicates improving demand. Friday’s high of 3.38 would then need to be reclaimed for further signs of strength. Since natural gas is within the first pullback following a decisive bull breakout, it presents an interesting potential setup that will be watched closely by market participants.

It is currently within the first pullback following a significant breakout. On November 20 natural gas busted through the 3.02 swing high resistance level and triggered a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the continuation of the uptrend begun from the 2024 low of 1.52.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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2 12, 2024

XAU/USD hovers around $2,640 without directional strength

By |2024-12-02T21:09:24+02:00December 2, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


XAU/USD Current price: $2,641.31

  • Upbeat United States data fueled demand for the USD in a risk-averse environment.
  • Investors await US employment-related updates ahead of the NFP release next Friday.
  • XAU/USD trades with a soft tone, but holds within familiar levels.

Resurgent US Dollar strength weighed modesty on Gold price, with XAU/USD posting intraday losses. The pair hovers around $2,640 in the American session and aims to extend its slump following better-than-anticipated United States (US) data.

S&P Global released the final estimate of the November Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), upwardly revised to 49.7 from the preliminary estimate of 48.8. The official ISM Manufacturing PMI for the same month printed at 48.4, better than the 47.5 expected and the previous 46.5.

Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 100 points, but the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite up for the day. The sentiment soured on weekend news, pointing to political turmoil in France and mounting tensions between the US and Russia after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on BRICS countries over the weekend.

Attention this week will be on US employment data, as the country will release multiple job-related figures ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD remains confined to familiar levels, still struggling to find a directional way. In the daily chart, the pair struggles around a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes well below the current level. Technical indicators, however, have turned flat at around their midlines, in line with the absence of a clear trend.

In the near-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish the bright metal stands below a flat 20 SMA while above an also directionless 100 SMA not far below the shorter one. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, stands in the $2,690 region, providing dynamic resistance. Finally, technical indicators turned lower around their midlines, lacking momentum enough to support a bearish continuation.

 Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55

 



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2 12, 2024

Giá cà phê tăng nhẹ

By |2024-12-02T07:01:33+02:00December 2, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Giá cà phê hôm nay ngày December 1, 2024 trên thị trường world, at 4:30 am updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV (world coffee prices are continuously updated by MXV, matching with world exchanges, the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates and links with world exchanges). Today’s online coffee prices of the three main coffee futures exchanges ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US and B3 Brazil are continuously updated by Y5Cafe during the trading hours of the exchange, updated as follows:

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn London lúc 4h30 ngày December 1, 2024 tiếp tục giảm ở phiên thứ 2 trong tuần, mức giảm sâu từ 142-156 USD/tấn, dao động từ 5228- 5409 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng January 2025 là 5.409 USD/tấn (giảm 156 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 5.377 USD/tấn (giảm 151 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 5.310 USD/tấn (giảm 144 USD/tấn) và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 5.228 USD/tấn (giảm 142 USD/tấn).

Tương tự, giá sàn giao dịch cà phê Arabica New York ngày November 30, 2024 cũng giảm, kết thúc phiên giao dịch trước đó giá cà phê trên sàn New York giảm ở mức từ 4,40- 5 cent/lb. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 318.05 cent/lb (giảm 5 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 315.50 cent/lb (giảm 5,20 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 310.85 cent/lb (giảm 4,85 cent/lb) và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 305,80 cent/lb (giảm 4,40 cent/lb).

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, sáng ngày December 1, 2024, giá cà phê Arabica Brazil tăng, giảm hỗn hợp qua các kỳ hạn giao hàng, dao động từ 386,85 – 389,05 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng December 2024 là 389,05 USD/tấn (giảm 14,85 USD/tấn); kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 393,70USD/tấn (tăng 1,20 USD/tấn); kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 393,15 USD/tấn (giảm 6,90 USD/tấn) và giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 386,85 USD/tấn (giảm 6,40 USD/tấn).

Dự báo giá cà phê ngày mai December 2, 2024 sẽ tăng nhẹ

Giá cà phê trong nước được cập nhật lúc 4h30 phút ngày December 1, 2024 như sau, giá cà phê trong nước quay đầu giảm, mức giảm nhẹ 1000 đồng/kg. Hiện giá thu mua trung bình tại các tỉnh Tây Nguyên là 130.200 đồng/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai ở mức 130.000 đồng/kg (giảm 1.000 đồng/kg so với phiên giao dịch trước); Tương tự, tại tỉnh Dak Nong cà phê cũng giảm 1.000 đồng/kg với giá 130.500 đồng/kg.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 129.500 VND/kg.

Giá cà phê hôm nay (ngày 1/12) tại tỉnh Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at 130.000 VND/kg, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 129.900 VND/kg.

Theo dự báo, giá cà phê ngày mai December 2, 2024 sẽ tăng nhẹ trở lại. Nguyên nhân được cho rằng do thời tiết không thuận lợi, thất thường tại hai nước sản xuất cà phê lớn nhất thế giới là Brazil và Việt Nam, mưa lớn ở các nước Nam Mỹ… Tại thị trường Việt Nam, mặc dù đang mùa thu hoạch rộ, giá cà phê đang neo ở mức cao nhưng nhiều nông dân chỉ bán lượng ít đủ chi phí công chăm sóc, thu hoạch, tưới tiêu, bón phân… còn đa số giữ lại vì mong chờ giá còn tăng.

Các chuyên gia cho rằng, hiện nay nguồn cung cà phê trên thị trường thế giới đang thiếu hụt và lượng cà phê tồn kho trên các sàn giao dịch quốc tế không nhiều. Điển hình, thời gian qua, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York tăng liên tục. Vì thị trường này lo ngại sự thiếu hụt nguồn cung từ Brazil, do tình trạng khô hạn kéo dài ở nhiều vùng trồng.

Theo tính toán của các nông dân trồng cà phê ở Tây Nguyên Việt Nam, trung bình sản xuất ra mỗi kg cà phê có giá khoảng 30.000 – 40.000 đồng. Tuy nhiên, hiện nay giá bán đã lên trên 130.000 đồng/kg. Như vậy, người nông dân có lãi từ 2 – 3 lần chi phí đầu tư. Do đó, hiện nay nhu cầu mua đất mở rộng diện tích cà phê giúp thị trường đất rẫy không ngừng tăng giá.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-mai-2122024-gia-ca-phe-tang-nhe-361861.html



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2 12, 2024

XAU/USD holds below $2,650 on US Dollar rebound

By |2024-12-02T02:59:53+02:00December 2, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price trades in negative territory near $2,645 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • Trump trades and the Fed’s cautious stance undermine the yellow metal price. 
  • The geopolitical risks might help limit Gold’s losses. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,645 during the early Asian session on Monday. A recovery in the US Dollar broadly weighs on the precious metal. However, persistent geopolitical tensions could cap the downside for XAU/USD

The yellow metal declined 3% in November, its worst monthly loss since September 2023. A victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential election in November fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts, which boost the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated Gold lower. 

Nonetheless, the escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Russian and Syrian jets have carried out air strikes on Syrian rebels who are advancing through the country after seizing its second-largest city, per Reuters. “Persistent global uncertainties continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.

Traders brace for the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh impetus. The Manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in the previous reading. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for November. 

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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1 12, 2024

Domestic market continues to decline, will the world market increase again?

By |2024-12-01T12:49:13+02:00December 1, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Experts predict that coffee prices on November 8, 2024 may continue to fall due to the US dollar reaching a four-month high, pushing coffee prices down, and fluctuations in the international market.

The US dollar surged to a four-month high after the White House officially opened for Donald Trump to return. With the US presidential election almost over, the market expects Mr. Trump’s policies on immigration, tariffs and trade to boost US growth.

Commenting on the market this week, industry insiders said that Robusta coffee prices calculated according to the monthly price January 2025 are forecast to continue to decrease with the target level possibly being 3.946 USD/ton. At this support level, the Robusta market can find buying and it is not excluded that the price will bounce back from here. However, if this level fails, Robusta prices can go down to 3.800 USD/ton.

For the December 2014 arabica coffee price, there is a lot of room for further declines and a possible technical low of 235,30 cents/lb. This is a level that should find some buying demand on a technical basis.

However, in the long term, the impact of the heat wave and prolonged lack of irrigation water occurring in the first months of 2024, coinciding with the time when coffee trees flower and bear fruit, has caused some coffee gardens to have wilted leaves, dry flowers, and young fruits, reducing productivity and output.

Recorded in the trading session on November 7, 2024, today’s coffee price increased by 600 VND/kg, ranging from 106.500-107.000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 106.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum provinces is 107.000 VND/kg.

Dự báo giá cà phê ngày November 8, 2024:
Coffee price forecast for November 8, 2024: Domestic price continues to decrease, will the world price increase again?

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 107.000 VND, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 106.900 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 107.000 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 107.000 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 106.500 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic coffee price (date 7/11) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 107.000 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 106.900 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 on November 7, 2024 Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for monthly delivery January 2025 on the London exchange was at 4.425 USD/ton, up 118 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price forecast on June 8, 11:Dự báo giá cà phê ngày November 8, 2024:
Coffee price today November 7, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The monthly delivery term March 2025 is 4.363 USD/ton, up 115 USD; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 4.302 USD/ton, up 113 USD and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 4.222 USD/ton, up 107 USD.

Coffee price forecast on June 8, 11:Dự báo giá cà phê ngày November 8, 2024:
Arabica coffee price on New York floor on November 7, 2024. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Of which, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor at 20:00 on November 7, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 252.60 – 257.30 cents/lb.

Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 is 257.30 cents/lb; up 8.55 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The monthly delivery term March 2025 is 256.4560 cents/lb, up 8.40 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 254.90 cents/lb, up 8.20 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 252.60 cents/lb, up 8.05 cents/lb.

Coffee price forecast on June 8, 11:Dự báo giá cà phê ngày November 8, 2024:
Brazilian Arabica coffee price on November 7, 2024.(Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today at 21:00 p.m. November 7, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 313.00 USD/ton, up 3.01%; the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 312.30 USD/ton, up 3.04%; the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 302.15 USD/ton, down 0.62% and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 299.20 USD/ton, down 0.63%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Commenting on the current market, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that product prices turning down is a common occurrence during the harvest season. In addition, the European Union has postponed anti-deforestation regulations for another 12 months, reducing supply pressure.

However, coffee prices will only fall in the short term. Vietnam’s coffee output this year is forecast to fall by about 10% due to heat and drought in some Central Highlands regions reducing productivity, while inventories from the previous crop have been depleted.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.



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