Coffee price today January 9, 2025

Coffee price world All fell sharply after two increases at the beginning of the week, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and high inventories. The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on the prices of most commodities, including coffee.

Domestic coffee prices today decreased, trading in the range of 120.000 – 121.000 VND/kg. In the Central Highlands, in the first days of 2025, unseasonal rains almost disappeared and the weather was sunny. These are ideal weather conditions for people to harvest the new coffee crop.

The US dollar rose for a second straight session on Thursday, as US bond yields continued their recent rally, following reports that US President-elect Donald Trump is considering using measures to push through new tariffs.

Speculators have been cutting their net long positions across the board, a major factor influencing coffee prices. The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market saw the non-commercial speculative sector reduce its net long position by 3,97% in the trading week ending December 31, 2024. Meanwhile, the London robusta coffee market saw the managed currency speculative sector reduce its net long position by 6,11% in the same period.

The increase in inventories also contributed to the price decline. Arabica coffee inventories tracked by ICE New York rose to a 2,5 yearly high on the day 6/1 reached 993.562 lot. Robusta coffee inventories tracked by ICE London rose to a 3 monthly high on the day 8/1 reached 4.415 lot.

However, the market was still supported by concerns that dry weather in Brazil last year could reduce this year’s crop, according to data from GovermentBrazil’s coffee exports in December fell 12% year-on-year to 17 million bags. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) said there were still delays in loading cargoes due to limited port capacity.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta, also saw its exports decline sharply compared to last year. In 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports of 1,34 million tons of all kinds are expected to decrease by 17,2% compared to 2023. In December alone, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 12 tons, down 126.000% compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

Vietnam remains the world’s largest supplier of robusta coffee. Despite a 15% decline in coffee production in 2024 due to drought, average prices rose 57% to a record $4.037 a tonne. Coffee exports last year reached $5,5 billion, up 32% from the previous year.

Coffee prices have increased sharply in recent times, according to a representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa). The reason for this is due to many factors: a serious shortage of supply due to a number of factors such as climate change and drought, which have reduced production, while crop conversion has also contributed to pushing prices up. In addition, global conflicts have put pressure on the supply chain, especially when farmers hold onto their goods waiting for good prices after the harvest.

Notes of World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session on 8/1, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London monthly delivery term March 2025 turned down 63 USD, traded at 4.956 USD/ton. The monthly delivery term May 2025 decreased 53 USD, traded at 4.877 USD/ton. Low trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the monthly delivery term March 2025 down 4,05 cents, trading at 316,45 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the monthly delivery term May 2025 down 4,30 cents, trading at 313,00 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

2025 is forecast to continue to see strong growth in coffee demand, particularly in emerging markets and the premium coffee segment, although factors such as climate change and fluctuations in coffee production could pose challenges for the industry.

Countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asian countries are experiencing an increase in coffee consumption. The changing consumption habits of young people in these countries are driving the demand for coffee, especially ready-to-drink and instant coffee.

Specialty coffee and organic coffee are gradually dominating the market, especially in developed countries such as the US and EU. Specialty coffee and coffee with clear origins and sustainability are increasingly popular.

The ready-to-drink coffee market, including instant coffee and pre-packaged coffees, is growing due to their convenience. Coffee pods are also becoming a trend, especially in Western markets.

Climate change may alter coffee production, affecting prices and quality. However, demand for coffee may remain strong thanks to the development of new farming methods and increased attention to sustainable coffee.

Meanwhile, e-commerce platforms and online coffee delivery services are helping to boost consumer access to coffee products, especially in the post-Covid-19 pandemic era.

Coffee demand will continue to grow at a steady rate of about 1-2% per year, due to the growth of new markets and changes in consumption habits in traditional markets. Forecasting global coffee demand in 2025, experts say that global coffee demand could reach 180 million to 200 million bags (1 bag = 60kg), with some regions such as North America, Europe and Asia still accounting for the majority of consumption demand.

• Silver price receives support from safe-haven flows amid uncertainty surrounding inflation and potential Trump tariffs.
• Industrial demand for Silver is set to exceed 700 million ounces (Moz), marking a significant milestone.
• The upside potential for the non-yielding metal may be capped as long-term US bond yields rise.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its upward momentum, rising for the sixth consecutive day to trade near $30.10 per troy ounce, close to three-week highs during Thursday’s Asian session. The precious metal, often considered a safe-haven asset, gains support amid uncertainty surrounding inflation and potential tariffs under President-elect Trump’s administration, as highlighted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

In addition, robust growth in 2024 has boosted industrial demand for Silver, which is on track to surpass 700 million ounces (Moz) for the first time. This surge is driven by its critical role in solar technology, electric vehicles (EVs), 5G networks, and consumer electronics, positioning Silver as a vital material for advancing innovation and supporting the transition to clean energy solutions.

Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions have added to market volatility, prompting investors to turn to precious metals like Silver for stability. According to Reuters, a Russian-guided bomb attack on Wednesday claimed the lives of at least 13 people and injured 63 others in Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, further fueling safe-haven demand.

The upside of the non-yielding metal could be limited as long-term US bond yields continue climbing on heavy supply. The 10-year rose to 4.73%, while the 30-year approached 4.96% on Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the December meeting.

FOMC Minutes showed that Fed policymakers expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have. Fed officials indicated they would be moving more slowly on rate reductions because of the uncertainty. Fed officials penciled the expected cuts in 2025 to two from four in the previous estimate at September’s meeting.

• Gold price corrects from a monthly high of $2,670 early Thursday amid a US holiday.     
• The US Dollar consolidates gains despite Treasury bond yields pullback and risk aversion.
• Gold price risks deeper correction amid impending Bear Cross and as RSI turns south.

Gold price pulls back from a monthly high of $2,670 set on Wednesday as buyers turn cautious after discouraging China’s inflation data and the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes. All eyes now remain on a bunch of Fed speakers due to speak later amid US holiday-thinned market conditions.

Gold price awaits Fedspeak amid looming downside risks

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0.1% annually in December from 0.2% in November, aligning with the market estimates while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) in December, slower than the 2.5% fall in November and coming in as expected.

Slowing Chinese inflation suggested a weakening domestic demand in the world’s biggest consumer, accentuating the economic concerns despite several stimulus efforts by the authorities. Growing China’s economic worries add to the pullback in the Gold price as the dragon nation is the world’s top Gold consumer.

Further, Gold price bears the brunt of the recent US Dollar (USD) upswing and elevated US Treasury bond yields amid a slew of strong US data, including the JOLTS Job Openings survey, Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, which continues to back the case for fewer interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Additionally, the hawkish Minutes of the Fed’s December meeting offset the weak US ADP Employment Change data on Wednesday, allowing Gold sellers to stage a comeback after two straight days of gains. The Minutes showed that Fed policymakers expressed concern about inflation and the impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration and trade policies, suggesting that they would be moving more slowly on rate cuts.

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely scrutinize speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Kansas Fed President Jeffery Schmid and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman for fresh insights on the US central bank’s future rate cuts.

However, speculations surrounding incoming US President Trump’s tariff plans will continue to rock Gold markets, with moves likely to be exaggerated by a partial US holiday on account of a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.

On Wednesday, citing four sources familiar with the matter, CNN News reported that US President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to allow for a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, known as “IEEPA. The headline triggered a sharp US Dollar advance, notwithstanding the weaker-than-expected US ADP private payrolls data, which came in at 122K in December, against a 140K print expected.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned lower toward the midline, though holding well above it. This suggests that Gold buyers could be facing some exhaustion.

Adding credence to the dwindling recovery momentum, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is set to cross the 100-day SMA from above, which, if materialized on a daily closing basis, would validate a Bear Cross.

If the Gold price correction extends, the initial demand area will be seen at the 50-day SMA of $2,644. A sustained move below that level will challenge the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 100-day SMA at $2,632.

Deeper declines will call for a test of the January 6 low of $2,615, followed by the $2,600 round level.

On the other hand, should Gold buyers jump back on the bids, the $2,665 static resistance must be scaled sustainably.

Further up, the December 13 high at $2,693 and the $2,700 level will be next on buyers’ radars.  

Signs of Weakening

That was the second day since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on October 29 that there has been a daily close below the 20-Day line. The first was three days ago, which generated a higher swing low (B). In addition, Tuesday’s bearish reversal day generated a lower swing high (C). These are signs of weakening that might lead to something or not.

Support at 3.43 and Resistance at 3.74

Support was successfully tested again today around the trendline and the price area showed support. Thereafter, buyers took back control shortly after the opening on Wednesday. Natural gas is on track to close strong, in the upper third of the day’s price range, at the time of this writing. It continues to trade near the high, which was 3.68. The low for the day is 3.43, a match with Tuesday.

Therefore, 3.43 provides a specific price support level to watch, which is needed to confirm price behavior around the trendline. A drop below 3.43 would follow another decline below the 20-Day MA, which is now at 3.54, and the trendline. This leaves 3.43 as a key short-term price level, as a drop below it may lead to a continuation of the bearish trend with a drop below the recent swing low at (B).

Bullish on Rise Above 3.74

On the upside, a lower swing high was generated yesterday following the day’s high of 3.74. Subsequently, sellers took back control, leading to a bearish reversal day and a weak close near the lows of the day and the trendline. Natural gas remains at risk of further downside unless there is a decisive advance above 3.74. That would trigger a bullish trend continuation signal and eliminate the lower swing high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gcoffee price world slight increase

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor updated at 15:00 on January 8, 2025 recovered for the second consecutive session from 2 – 19 USD/ton, fluctuating at 35 – 4749 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 5019 USD/ton (up 5019 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 35 USD/ton (up 4930 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 30 USD/ton (up 4839 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term September 2025 is 23 USD/ton (up 4749 USD/ton).

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor in the early afternoon of January 8, 2025 also increased slightly from 1.80 – 2.05 cents/lb, ranging from 306.10 – 320.50 cents/lb. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 320.50 cents/lb (up 1.90 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 317.30 cents/lb (up 1.80 cents/lb); the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 312.40 cents/lb (up 2 cents/lb) and the monthly delivery term September 2025 was 306.10 cents/lb (up 2.05 cents/lb).

At the end of the trading session, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee in the afternoon of January 8, 2025 was updated as follows: Compared to the previous trading session, there was an increase of 0.40 – 4.95 USD/ton, ranging from 377.80 – 402.25 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery period March 2025 is 402.25 USD/ton (up 0.40 USD/ton); the monthly delivery period May 2025 is 390.00 USD/ton (up 4.95 USD/ton); the monthly delivery period July 2025 is 388.80 USD/ton (up 2.65 USD/ton); the monthly delivery period September 2025 is 377.80 USD/ton (up 3.25 USD/ton).

Domestic coffee prices increased for the third consecutive session.

According to information from Giacaphe.com, at 15:30 p.m. today January 8, 2025, domestic coffee prices increased for the third consecutive session of the week, maintaining an average of 3 VND/kg, an increase of +121.300 VND/kg.

Finished coffee of Seed Coffee Company Limited. Photo: Le Son

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 121.500 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak at 121.300 VND/kg, up +300 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.500 VND/kg, an increase of +200 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai has a price of 121.200 VND/kg, an increase of +400 VND/kg and coffee price at Dak Nong Today’s price is 121.500 VND/kg, up +500 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 9/ 1 / 2025

The coffee market is currently experiencing significant volatility, with many factors affecting prices. According to forecasts, coffee prices may increase sharply in 2025 due to adverse weather conditions affecting production in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. Specifically, coffee prices may increase by 20-25% in 2025.

In Vietnam, unseasonal rains have affected the coffee harvest and quality, leading to reduced supply and higher prices. Domestic coffee prices have increased sharply, with Robusta prices ranging from VND121.300/kg to VND122.200/kg, depending on the region.

In the world market, the price of Robusta coffee futures for the month of March 2025 on the London floor was recorded to have increased to 5.019 USD/ton last night, while the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor also recorded a significant increase.

With the current fluctuations, according to experts, the daily coffee price January 9, 2025 will continue to remain high, reflecting the affected supply and increased market demand.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,666.56

• Headlines related to US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs shook financial boards.
• Mixed United States employment-related data had no impact on the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD extends its weekly gains, aims for higher highs in the near term.

Spot Gold trades marginally higher on Wednesday, as dominant risk-aversion keeps safe-haven assets evenly demanded, preventing XAU/USD from running far yet keeping it afloat. The bright metal added a few bucks during American hours and trades at around $2,660, as once again, headlines related to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs plans shook financial markets.

According to CNN, Trump is considering “declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries, four sources familiar with the matter.” The International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) will unilaterally authorize the president to manage imports during a national emergency.

The news weighed on the market’s mood and boosted demand for the US Dollar (USD), although the Greenback pared gains ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. The document is expected to shed light on policymakers’ thoughts behind the latest 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut and shed light on what is next on the monetary policy front.

Meanwhile, the US  released the December ADP Employment Report showing that the private sector added 122K new jobs in the month, missing expectations of 140K. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 3 increased by 201K, better than the 218K expected and below the previous 211K. Mixed employment figures had no impact on financial markets. Speculative interest

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it holds on to gains near a fresh multi-week high of $2,667.67, while the risk skews to the upside. The bright metal gains upward traction, but additional gains are still unclear. Technical indicators crossed their midlines with encouraging slopes but remain within neutral levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains directionless, providing dynamic support at around 2,640. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, keep advancing below the shorter one.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The pair currently develops above all its moving averages, although a flat 20 SMA converges with a directionless 200 SMA at $2,645.46. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, is also flat yet at $2,633.70. Finally, technical indicators maintain their upward slopes well above their midlines, in line with additional gains ahead.

Support levels: 2,626.30 2,614.45 2,596.00

Resistance levels: 2,649.50 2,665.10 2,678.85  

Weather Forecasts Remain Mixed

Conflicting weather data continues to inject uncertainty into price action, according to NatGasWeather. The American model added two heating degree days (HDD) earlier in the week, suggesting stronger demand, while the European model shaved off eight HDDs, hinting at milder conditions. Although both models anticipate cold temperatures over the next two weeks, the discrepancy in severity could weigh heavily on market sentiment. Any alignment between models favoring colder conditions would likely fuel upward momentum.

Cold Snap Drives Record Demand

Demand remains elevated as bitter cold grips the interior U.S., pushing temperatures into negative territory in northern states and keeping Southern regions chilly overnight. Daytime highs struggle to reach freezing across much of the Midwest and Northeast, reinforcing the need for heating. This pattern is forecasted to hold through January 18 before a brief moderation, with another cold front potentially extending demand strength into late January. The West Coast, by contrast, continues to experience milder weather.

EIA Report to Set the Tone

Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming EIA storage report, which will be released early due to a government holiday. Current projections point to a 39 Bcf withdrawal, reflecting ongoing winter demand but less severe than last week’s 116 Bcf draw. Storage levels, now at 3,413 Bcf, remain 67 Bcf below last year’s figures but 154 Bcf above the five-year average. A larger-than-expected draw could tighten the market further, lending support to prices. Conversely, a lighter withdrawal may reinforce the view that supply remains sufficient.

Resistance at $3.766 Keeps Bulls in Check

Created on January 08, 2025

• Since the start of trading this week, gold prices have been trying to rebound upwards with gains extending to the resistance level of $2665 per ounce.
• Obviously, that’s before the gold price index gains stalled amid a recovery in the US dollar and stabilized around $2650 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
• This comes in anticipation of important US events and data, led by the announcement today of the minutes of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting, followed by the announcement of important US jobs figures at the end of the week.

Reasons for the recent rise in the price of gold

According to gold trading company platforms, spot gold prices have found positive momentum amid uncertainty about US tariff policy ahead of Trump’s inauguration. In addition, the People’s Bank of China added gold to its reserves for the second consecutive month, according to official data. Now, gold traders are awaiting further US jobs data, including the non-farm payrolls report, as well as the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for additional policy guidance. Overall, the strength of the US dollar has had a greater impact on gold price performance, as low interest rates typically benefit the non-yielding metal.

US Dollar Price Returns to Two-Year High

According to Forex trading, the US dollar price has returned around its highest level in two years after it received strong support from the announcement of an increase in US job opportunities, highlighting the flexibility in the Labor market. In addition, the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management showed an acceleration in activity and a rise in prices, which fuelled concerns about ongoing inflation and reduced expectations of a significant reduction in US interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in the coming months.

According to economic calendar data, US services sector growth accelerated in December, boosting business activity and pushing prices to their highest levels since early 2023. Also, US job openings rose by 259,000 to 8.098 million in November, exceeding expectations and reaching a six-month high. Concurrently, Investors are focused on the monthly US jobs report on Friday, one of the last major data releases before the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision.  

Currently, financial markets are pricing in less than 50 basis points of total easing this year.

US Treasury yields hover around 8-month high

Meanwhile, another factor affecting the gold market is the rise in US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond remained at around 4.69% on Wednesday, steady at an eight-month high as strong US economic data reduced expectations for further US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.  

With Trump’s inauguration approaching, options are pointing to the possibility of the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5% – a level not seen since October 2023. Furthermore, speculation that Trump’s policies will spur rapid inflation and high deficits as the US economy advances has sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note up by about half a percentage point over the past month to nearly 4.7%. moreover, the wave of corporate bond issuance and $119 billion from US debt auctions this week – with more government borrowing expected in the coming weeks – added to the upward pressure.

Trading Tips

Dear follower, we know very well that no matter what the dollar price is, global geopolitical tensions. Also, central bank purchases will remain important factors supporting gold gains.

Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

Dear reader, according to the daily chart and the forecasts of gold analysts today, the gold price is stabilizing in a neutral position and the trend will be bullish if the bulls move prices towards the resistance levels of $2665 and $2685, respectively. Thus, in turn will push spot gold prices towards the psychological peak of $270, which will support the strength of the bulls’ control over the trend and signal a new significant upward movement. The directions of technical indicators, led by the Relative Strength Index and the MACD, are still neutral so far.

Conversely, and over the same time frame, breaking the support levels of $2628, $2615, and $2585 will be important for the bears’ control over the trend. at the same time, that will encourage gold investors to consider buying gold again.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from. 

This year in oil has been marked by chronic trader pessimism about Chinese demand and an equally chronic downplaying of supply disruption risks. This has made for a rather stable year in prices—and the stability could continue in 2025, on a few conditions.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate appear set to end the year at nearly the same levels that they started. WTI started 2024 at a little over $70 per barrel and is about to end a little below that. Brent crude looks like it will post a little more noticeable loss, starting the year at $77 per barrel and ending at a bit over $74 at the time of writing.

The biggest reason for this somewhat unnatural stability in oil prices has been the focus on China. Every single report on oil prices this year has featured Chinese economic data or oil import figures in its lead. This is set to continue in 2025 amid a flurry of reports predicting peak oil demand growth for the world’s biggest importer.

China’s very own state oil giants are saying it. CNPC said earlier this month that it expected demand growth to peak in 2025, moving the peak year from 2030, which was its prediction in 2023. The company cited electric vehicle adoption and LNG truck growth as reasons for its predictions, even though the record share of EVs in total car sales this year has failed to reverse China’s oil demand growth.

Sinopec was next, publishing a report a week ago saying that oil demand growth in China was about to reach its peak in three years in 2027. The peak will occur at a daily demand level of some 16 million barrels or a total of 800 million metric tons, the Chinese state oil major said. A year ago, Sinopec saw Chinese oil demand peaking at around 800 million metric tons sometime between 2026 and 2030. China’s oil demand this year is seen reaching 750 million metric tonnes, according to Sinopec.

So, focus on China and pessimism about its demand has kept a lid on prices this year and is likely to keep that lid in place in 2025 as well—unless all the stimulus that the government in Beijing is throwing at the economy doesn’t spur greater demand for the key commodity. As one analyst from Brokerage Pepperstone put it to the Wall Street Journal, “The apparent calm in the oil market hides a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors that could trigger sharp movements at any moment.”

“Attention is focused on the evolution of macroeconomic data and future OPEC+ decisions, which will determine the market’s direction in the coming months,” Quasar Elisundia told the WSJ. In macroeconomic data, the focus will remain on China but also on India, which is shaping up as the next leading demand driver globally. Indeed, S&P Global Commodity Insights recently forecast that India’s oil demand growth rate was set to exceed China’s this year.

“India will be the leading driver, along with Southeast Asia and other parts of South Asia, of the region’s future oil demand growth,” SPGCI’s global head of macro and oil demand research, Kang Wu, said.

But even weaker growth markets such as the European Union, continue to see growth in oil demand, as suggested by import figures. The latest available, for the second quarter of the year, showed a decline in natural gas imports but a pickup in what the EU categorizes as “petroleum oils”. The EU is not the oil market traders look to for insight into demand trends, but this may be an oversight.

On the supply side, the focus, of course, remains on OPEC+, even as forecasters keep repeating how they expect great production growth things from non-OPEC majors such as the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil. These forecasts have started to moderate with regard to the U.S., however, as the industry gives repeated signs that there will be no drilling at will just because there is a pro-oil president in the White House.

The situation with OPEC+ is quite similar. Forecasters have been making traders nervous and bearish for months, reminding them of all that spare capacity that OPEC could bring back online when it decides to roll back its output cuts. What they’ve consistently forgotten to mention is that OPEC and its OPEC+ partners made it clear from the start of the cuts that output would only be brought back online when prices rose high enough. This basically means that several price routs this year were entirely the result of unrealistic expectations, with zero relation to actual oil fundamentals.

In the current context, fundamentals appear to be largely in balance. Many expect a supply glut next year, but that’s based on assumptions about EV adoption that have consistently tended to disappoint. Trump sanctions on Iran could tighten supply from the Middle East further and lend some upward momentum for prices, but chances are that the idea of that big spare capacity cushion of 5 million bpd or more is going to play the role of a market blowout preventer once again.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver price receives support due to uncertainty over the tariff policy ahead of the Trump administration.
• The industrial demand for Silver strengthens due to a positive economic outlook in China, the world’s largest consumer of metals.
• The upside of the dollar-denominated metal could be restrained due to the improved US Dollar.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around $30.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Silver, a safe-haven asset, found some support amid uncertainty over the tariff policy ahead of Trump’s inauguration. However, Trump dismissed a Washington Post report suggesting that his team was considering narrowing the scope of his tariff plan to target only specific critical imports.

Additionally, a positive economic outlook in China, the world’s largest consumer of Silver, is strengthening demand for the metal. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is working with the State Planner to stimulate the country’s economy. PBoC official Peng Lifeng announced that the central bank will support banks in expanding loans under the trade-in initiative.

However, the price of the dollar-denominated precious metal may struggle as an improved US Dollar (USD) makes it more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies, thereby dampening Silver demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, holds its position above 108.50 at the time of writing. The Greenback strengthened as the 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds rose by over 1% in the previous session, currently standing at 4.68%.

This surge highlights the changing investor sentiment toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook following robust US economic data. The latest ISM services report suggested increased activity and rising prices in the United States (US), intensifying concerns about persistent inflation. This has further pressured Silver price, as higher interest rates tend to reduce demand for the non-yielding metal. Traders are now focusing on upcoming US jobs data, including the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, as well as the latest FOMC Minutes, for further policy insights.

The US ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1 in November, up from 52.1, exceeding the market expectation of 53.3. The Prices Paid Index, which reflects inflation, rose significantly to 64.4 from 58.2, while the Employment Index dipped slightly to 51.4 from 51.5.