XAU/USD Current price: $2,297.49

• Softer-than-anticipated US Producer Price Index figures temporarily boosted the mood.
• Wall Street’s poor performance reflects a sour mood, backing demand for the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD turned bearish and aims to pierce the weekly low at $2,286.69.

After a volatile Wednesday, the US Dollar recovered the ground lost following United States (US) first-tier events, pushing higher even against the safe-haven Gold in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD trades below $2,300 a troy ounce, trimming weekly gains.

The US Dollar turned lower mid-European morning following the release of encouraging US inflation-related data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI)  rose 2.2% YoY in May, easing from the 2.3% increase posted in April and below expectations for a 2.5% advance. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined by 0.2%.

The optimism was short-lived as US indexes turned sharply lower after the opening, pushing the Greenback higher across financial boards. At the time being, only the Nasdaq Composite trades in the green, up a modest 0.29%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the worst performer, down 225 points.

The upcoming Asian session will bring the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision. Market participants speculate the central bank will probably leave interest rates unchanged, although policymakers may also announce a reduction in bond purchases.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the risk of a bearish breakout has increased. The pair is trading below a firmly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher well below the current level, although they remain too far to become relevant. The weekly low at $2,286.69 is the immediate support level.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is even stronger. XAU/USD accelerated south after sliding below a now flat 20 SMA. Furthermore, the 100 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA, both far above the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators crossed their midlines into negative territory, and maintain firmly bearish slopes, reflecting persistent selling interest.

Support levels: 2,286.70 2,271.90 2,258.30

Resistance levels: 2,308.80 2,321.55 2,333.10 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,297.49

• Softer-than-anticipated US Producer Price Index figures temporarily boosted the mood.
• Wall Street’s poor performance reflects a sour mood, backing demand for the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD turned bearish and aims to pierce the weekly low at $2,286.69.

After a volatile Wednesday, the US Dollar recovered the ground lost following United States (US) first-tier events, pushing higher even against the safe-haven Gold in a risk-averse environment. XAU/USD trades below $2,300 a troy ounce, trimming weekly gains.

The US Dollar turned lower mid-European morning following the release of encouraging US inflation-related data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI)  rose 2.2% YoY in May, easing from the 2.3% increase posted in April and below expectations for a 2.5% advance. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined by 0.2%.

The optimism was short-lived as US indexes turned sharply lower after the opening, pushing the Greenback higher across financial boards. At the time being, only the Nasdaq Composite trades in the green, up a modest 0.29%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the worst performer, down 225 points.

The upcoming Asian session will bring the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision. Market participants speculate the central bank will probably leave interest rates unchanged, although policymakers may also announce a reduction in bond purchases.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the risk of a bearish breakout has increased. The pair is trading below a firmly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher well below the current level, although they remain too far to become relevant. The weekly low at $2,286.69 is the immediate support level.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is even stronger. XAU/USD accelerated south after sliding below a now flat 20 SMA. Furthermore, the 100 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA, both far above the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators crossed their midlines into negative territory, and maintain firmly bearish slopes, reflecting persistent selling interest.

Support levels: 2,286.70 2,271.90 2,258.30

Resistance levels: 2,308.80 2,321.55 2,333.10 

Fed Leans Hawkish, Dollar Gains

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 5.25%-5.50%, as anticipated by the market, wasn’t the main story. Instead, it was the accompanying policy statement and press conference by Chair Jerome Powell that dampened expectations for a swift easing of monetary policy. Policymakers prioritized combating inflation, despite recent data showing some easing in consumer prices. This hawkish tilt by the Fed strengthened the US dollar, making dollar-denominated silver more expensive for foreign investors and exerting downward pressure on prices.

Silver Waits for Rate Cut Clarity

The silver market, which typically thrives on expectations of lower interest rates, now faces uncertainty. While recent inflation data offered a positive sign, the delay in rate cuts throws a curveball at the bullish narrative. Lower borrowing costs tend to make non-interest-bearing assets like silver more attractive, but the timing of those cuts remains unclear. This lack of clarity from the Fed is likely to result in volatile silver prices in the near term.

Economic Data and Fed Guidance Key

Traders should pay close attention to upcoming economic data releases and the Fed’s pronouncements for clues on the central bank’s next move. Initial jobless claims data and the producer price index for May, both scheduled for release today, could offer insights into inflation pressures. Additionally, any indications from the Fed about the timing of the single rate cut it now forecasts for 2024 will be crucial for gauging silver’s future direction.

Choppy Trading Ahead for Silver

With the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach, silver’s short-term outlook is uncertain. While the recent inflation slowdown may provide some support, the delay in rate cuts could limit any significant upward momentum. Investors should be prepared for choppy price action until the Fed offers a clearer timeline for its monetary policy changes.

Technical Analysis

• Gold price turns south toward $2,300 early Thursday, snapping a three-day rebound.  
• The US Dollar looks to extend post-US CPI data recovery, courtesy of the Fed’s hawkish hold.
• Gold sellers remain poised to test the key $2,277 support, as the daily RSI stays bearish.

Gold price is trading in the red for the first time this week, looking to retest the $2,300 level early Thursday. Gold sellers fight back control following the hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision but stay cautious ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data due later on Thursday.

Gold price enjoyed a good two-way business on Fed day

Gold price enjoyed good two-way price action on Wednesday, starting off the day on a cautious footing, consolidating Tuesday’s rebound in the lead-up to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.

Gold buyers received a fresh boost on a much softer-than-expected US CPI report, which bolstered expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year. Increased dovish Fed bets smashed the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, driving Gold price closer to the $2,350 barrier.

The headline CPI was flat over the month in May, below expectations for a 0.1% gain. Core CPI rose 0.2%, also below estimates for a 0.3% increase. The annual figures also came in softer than the market consensus.

However, the tide turned against Gold price, as sellers jumped back into the game on the Fed policy announcements. Gold price reversed nearly $15 from multi-day highs to settle with modest gains near $2,325 on Wednesday.

Fed held policy rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, following the June policy meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, indicated the policymakers expect to cut rates only once in 2024, against a projection of three rate cuts in the March forecasts and down from two rate cuts widely anticipated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also delivered hawkish comments during his post-policy meeting press conference, noting that “more recent readings on inflation have shown easing. So far this year, we have not got greater confidence on inflation in order to cut.”

“Will need to see more good data to bolster confidence on inflation,” Powell added.

With the ‘Super Wednesday’ now out of the way, attention turns toward a fresh batch of top-tier US economic data, including the PPI report, which could raise doubts over the Fed’s hawkish outlook on interest rates.

Gold price will likely remain at the mercy of risk trends and the US Dollar price action, in the aftermath of the key US events.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, the Gold price defied bearish pressures on Wednesday but the downside bias remains intact going forward, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well below the 50 level and a Bear Cross remains in the making.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from above, which if happens will validate the bearish crossover, opening the door for a renewed downtrend in Gold price.

The immediate support is now seen at the $2,300 threshold, below which the May 3 low of $2,277 will be threatened. A sustained break below the latter is critical to boosting sellers toward the $2,250 psychological barrier.

Alternatively, the recovery in Gold price will need acceptance above key confluence support-turned-resistance near $2,350, where the 21-day and 50-day SMAs coincide.

Gold buyers will then flex their muscles toward the May 24 high of $2,364 on their way to the June 7 high of $2,388.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

XAU/USD Current price: $2,337.15

• The US Consumer Price Index eased by more than anticipated in May.
• Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell.
• XAU/USD advances modestly in a risk-on scenario, support at $2,330.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,341.51 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar fell following the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets turned wildly optimistic after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation rose less than anticipated in May, easing from April’s levels. The CPI rose 3.3% YoY and held unchanged on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the annual core CPI rose 3.4%, while the monthly figure was up by 0.2%, below expected and previous figures.

XAU/USD retreated from such a high after Wall Street’s opening as demand for high-yielding assets accelerated, undermining the positive momentum of the bright metal, although it holds to most of its intraday gains above the $2,330 mark.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve(Fed). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to end its two-day meeting and announce its decision on monetary policy. Financial markets widely anticipate policymakers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged in a floating range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Following the release of US inflation-related figures, markets rushed to price in a 63% chance of a rate cut by September, up from roughly 47% before the event. Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press conference following the announcement and may shed light on whatever policymakers plan for the near future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is up for a third consecutive session, although gains are modest. The positive momentum is limited, as technical indicators advance, although within negative levels. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a modest downward slope above the current level, providing dynamic resistance at around $2,353.25. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north well below the current level, limiting the downside.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk for XAU/USD skews to the upside. The pair ran past its 20 SMA, which is currently losing its bearish slope. It remains below the 100 and 200 SMAs, both at around $2,345. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels but lost their positive momentum ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Support levels: 2,328.90 2,313.30 2,300.00

Resistance levels: 2,345.00 2,353.25 2,368.70

Crude oil futures traded flat Wednesday as this week’s rally eased after Department of Energy data indicated soft demand for gasoline last week.

Oil prices were more than 1% higher earlier in the session, but pulled back after the U.S. reported a 3.7 million barrel crude build for last week, compared with analyst expectations of a 1 million barrel draw.

• As expected, gold prices have been trading in a narrow range with a downward bias, settling around $2315 per ounce pending the reaction to key US data and events.
• Gold prices have stabilized after recent strong selling that took them to a one-month low of $2286 per ounce, amid stronger-than-expected US jobs data and a slowdown in the pace of record gold buying by central banks, led by China.

According to currency trading platforms, the US dollar index continued its gains for the third session to 105.3 on Tuesday, its highest level in about a month, as traders reduced their bets on US rate cuts and prepared for the FOMC meeting and key CPI data. After Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, traders now see only a 52.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September, compared with 66.9% a week ago.

Meanwhile, today begins the two-day FOMC meeting, and although the Fed is expected to leave the Fed’s target range for monetary policy unchanged, traders are awaiting hints on when the first-rate cut could be made.

Also, new economic forecasts will be released. Also, the headline CPI and PPI readings are due out this week. Additionally, the dollar likewise benefited from a flight to safety amid political instability in France. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged but is likely to discuss reducing its monthly bond purchases.

On the stock trading platforms front, US stock indexes fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, the Nasdaq down 0.2%, and the Dow down 250 points, after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in the previous session. Traders refrained from making big bets ahead of the CPI report and the start of the two-day FOMC meeting. Furthermore, the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged today, but investors will be looking for more clues about the timing of the first rate cut.

According to US stock trading, utility and energy stocks were the worst-performing sectors, while telecom stocks managed to stay in the green. Megacap stocks were mixed, with Microsoft (-0.2%) and Meta (-0.4%) down, while Nvidia was flat, and Amazon (0.3%) and Alphabet (0.9%) were up. Also, Apple’s stock rose (1.7%) even after the company’s new AI system failed to convince investors. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s stock fell about 2.5%, Tesla fell 1.6%, and Exxon Mobil fell 1.4%.

Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

The price of gold is expected to remain stable within its current range until the market and investor reaction to the announcement of U.S. inflation figures and the Federal Reserve’s statement, which significantly and directly impact the performance of the U.S. dollar, and consequently, the price of gold. According to the daily chart performance, the trend is still downward. If gold breaks below the support level of $2,300, it will encourage further bearish movement, targeting the next key support levels at $2,275 and $2,258 per ounce. Conversely, a move towards the resistance level of $2,355 per ounce would empower the bulls to regain control of the trend. 

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

Bull Breakouts Follow Through

Last week natural gas triggered a breakout from a bull pennant trend continuation pattern. The fact that the breakout of the pennant occurred around the same time as a breakout above the long-term downtrend line triggered, makes it more interesting. Trendlines by themselves are not too reliable as a signal, but this breakout is more interesting because of the pennant. The pennant consolidation formed near resistance and therefore the two breakouts are starting the next leg up rather than triggering a breakout further into an advance when momentum is more likely to die off following a breakout.

Bullish Confirmation Signs

Further supporting bullish evidence includes the recent bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 200-Day MA, and a successful test of support at the 20-Day line recently. If natural gas can eventually exceed the 2023 high at 3.64, further confirmation of a bullish reversal will be indicated. Further, a rally above the next swing high of 3.39 and daily close above that price level, improves the chance that the 2023 high may be exceeded. The monthly chart also reflects improving demand in natural gas as the 20-Month MA was exceeded this month for the first time since natural gas fell below it in December 2022.

Pennant Targets 3.78

There are several interim targets on the way to the calculated target from the pennant pattern starting with the 88.6% retracement. The pennant structure provides a potential target of 3.78. That is above the 2023 peak of 3.64. Nevertheless, it is still a way away and the target may never get hit. If the 3.18 to 3.20 price zone is exceeded, January swings high at 3.39, followed by the 2023 high at 3.64 become targets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.