• Gold price consolidates at fresh record highs of $2,800 early Friday.    
• Renewed Trump’s tariff threats spark the safe-haven appeal of Gold price.
• The Dollar lacks bullish conviction amid disappointing US growth figures.
• The daily technical setup points to more gains in the offing for Gold buyers.   

Gold price is battling $2,800, sitting at its highest level on record early Friday. Renewed US Dollar selling and US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats help keep Gold price afloat ahead of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release.

Gold price eyes higher highs as Trump’s tariffs loom

President Trump’s latest tariff warnings keep investors on the edge, fuelling fresh demand for traditional safe havens such as the Japanese Yen, Gold and US government bonds. In his latest post on X, the 47^th US President reiterated his threat of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they try to replace the US Dollar with a new currency in international trade.

Earlier in Thursday’s American trading, Trump noted that the US is set to impose a flat 25% import tax on February 1 “because of fentanyl” on all goods crossing the border into the US from Canada or Mexico while adding that “we’re in the process of doing a China tariff.”

Resurgent demand for the traditional store of value keeps the record-setting rally in Gold price alive and kicking as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid the ongoing pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen capitalizes on risk-off flows and hot Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which bolstered further Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike bets.

Traders now look to the US core PCE Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, for fresh insights on the central bank’s next policy move, especially after the American economy showed a bigger-than-expected slowdown in the final quarter of 2024.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said, falling short of the 2.6% increase expected after reporting a growth of 3.1% in the third quarter.

The US Dollar tracked the US Treasury bond yields lower on disappointing US growth figures as the data revived dovish Fed expectations. However, Trump’s tariff threats lent some support to the Greenback in late American trading. However, that failed to deter Gold buyers as a flight to safety theme remained in vogue.

With tariffs likely to be announced over the weekend on Canada, Mexico and China, Gold price will remain the go-to asset due to its status as a safe-haven and an inflation hedge. Trump’s trade policies are prerceived as inflationary.

 Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price stands tall near fresh record highs after closing Thursday well beyond the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or the previous all-time high of $2,790.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 68, suggesting that there is more room to the upside before Gold price enters the overbought territory at 70.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross confirmed last week remains in play.

Gold price needs a sustained move above the $2,800 level to target next topside barrier at $2,850.

On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,754.

Sellers will then aim for this week’s low of $2,731, folowed by the 21-day SMA at $2,714.

61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Completed

A support zone is indicated around the 61.8% retracement level as a prior interim swing high was at 3.02 and an internal uptrend line is close by. However, if that price zone fails to show support, the next lower level to consider is around a trendline at approximately 2.82. That line is the top boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Further down is a potentially more significant support zone identified by both the 200-Day MA at 2.68 and the 78.6% retracement at 2.67. When two or more indicators point to a similar price area, it is one way that the market provides clues.

200-Day MA is Most Significant

Although the 200-Day line was successfully tested as support initially following a reclaim of the line on September 11, the current retracement is at a larger scale of the trend structure. Nonetheless, it would be expected to hold as support if tested given its long-term significance as a trend indicator. It is also interesting to note that the triangle apex crosses right at the 78.6% retracement level.

One way to identify a possibly failure of a bull breakout from a symmetrical triangle is the center line of the pattern (where boundary lines cross). The idea being that if the bulls remained in charge overall following a bull breakout of the pattern, the price would not be able to fall back below the midpoint, as it shows relative weakness that is getting worse.

Month of January Likely Ends Very Bearish

As noted previously, with one trading day remaining till the end of January, the developing monthly candlestick pattern (not shown) is likely to end in a bearish position. Today’s decline dropped the low for the month of January to 3.04, which increasing the chance that natural gas will end the month in a very bearish position on the monthly chart.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The EURJPY pair surrendered to the stability of 164.80 barrier to notice forming correctional bearish waves to settle near 162.20, testing the minor bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.

Note that crawling below the MA55 and stochastic continuous negative momentum might force the price to break the current support and suffer additional losses by crawling towards 161.60 and 161.00 levels, while holding above the support will reinforce the chances of forming bullish waves, to wait to rally above 163.30 to confirm its preparation to activate the bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 161.60 and 163.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Coffee price continued to form bullish waves recently, taking advantage of its consolidation within the bullish channel and 347.10 level forming new support line, to notice achieving the first main target at 367.80.

We expect the domination of the sideways bias to provide mixed waves until breaching 367.80 to open the way to record new historical gains that might extend towards 376.00 followed by reaching the bullish channel’s support line at 383.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 355.00 and 376.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,792.07

• The United States grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in the last quarter of 2024.
• The December US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be out on Friday.
• XAU/USD is technically bullish and could surpass the $2,800 mark in the upcoming sessions.

Spot Gold reached a fresh all-time high following the second round of first-tier events, trading as high as $2,798.53 after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure after the release of tepid growth-related figures.

According to the United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, declining from the 3.1% posted in Q3 and missing expectations of 2.6%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report also showed that the GDP Price Index rose by 2.2%, below the expected 2.5%.

Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% on a quarterly basis, matching the market consensus. Finally, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 24 improved to 207K from the previous 223K.

Wall Street struggled to digest the news after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday and failed to provide fresh clues on the monetary policy direction. Still, after the dust settled, US indexes trimmed most of their early losses and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts modest gains, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade a handful of points below their Wednesday’s close.

On Friday, the focus will be on Germany, as the country will release December Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The US will publish the December PCE Price Index, but following the GDP release, the report will not be a surprise; hence, the market will post a limited reaction to the news.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the bullish momentum is strong enough to anticipate a break through $2,800 in the upcoming sessions. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north above the longer ones while providing dynamic support at around $2,710. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their advances within positive levels, approaching overbought readings yet still with room to go.

The XAU/USD 4-hour chart also supports another leg north. Technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes while entering overbought territory. Finally, the bright metal develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction at around $2,758 while standing well above the 100 and 200 SMAs. The former all-time high at

Support levels: 2,789.90 2,777.40 2,766.05

Resistance levels: 2,800.00 2,812.00 2,825.00

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have rallied slightly during the trading session and the early hours of Thursday, but still, we see a lot of lack of interest. We have switched over to the March contract and that is going to have a lot to do with where we go next. Quite frankly, now that you’re in the March contract, you’re starting to think about spring. And yes, I realize it’s just now turning February, but it is a futures market. And your CFD contract that you might be trading will be following this one way or another. Sometimes it is the average price, sometimes it’s just the front month, which would be this month, March, or other times it is halfway between two contracts. You just never know what you’re getting with the CFD.

So, with that, we look at the futures market and it tells us that things are going lower. That makes sense as it is expected to be warmer than usual in the month of March in North America and by extension, somewhat the same in Europe, and if that’s going to be the case, demand for natural gas is going to fall off of a cliff. This happens every year, there’s nothing particularly unique about this, it’s just that it might be happening a little earlier than usual. So, as things stand right now, I like the idea of fading rallies, assuming we get one. Any bounce for a couple of days that shows a long wick on top of it, I’m more than willing to start shorting.

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Applied Materials’ stock price (AMAT) edged higher in the intraday levels, after leaning on the support of the 50-day SMA, lending the stock some positive momentum, while trying to recoup some losses, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative signals from the RSI. 

Therefore we expect the price to return lower, provided the support of $171.60 was reliably breached, targeting the next one at $148.00.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bearish 

• Gold price finds demand but remains within a familiar range below record highs.    
• The US Dollar stays depressed alongside US Treasury yields, eyeing the US Q4 advance GDP report.
• The daily technical setup continues to favor Gold buyers as record highs remain in sight.  

Gold price is back in demand early Thursday, holding its fort above $2,750. Despite the rebound, Gold price remains in a familiar range below the record high of $2.790 as traders look forward to the US fourth-quarter advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for fresh impetus.  

Will Gold price retest record highs on US GDP slowdown?

Gold buyers are trying their luck in Asian trading on Thursday, helped by a subdued performance of the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields as traders digest the latest US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision in the face of looming tariffs by President Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico and China as soon as this weekend.

Meanwhile, markets remained wary of the mixed earnings results from the US tech titans Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft released after the market close. Meta’s sales in the fourth quarter jumped 21% year over year while net income grew 49% to $20.8 billion from $14 billion a year earlier. Microsoft slipped on weak quarterly revenue guidance while Tesla Inc. shares rallied as much as 4% in extended trading on Wednesday despite the company reporting a disappointing quarter on both revenue and the profit front. 

Expectations of a slowdown in the US economic growth also revive the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price. The US economy is expected to grow at an annualized pace of 2.6% in Q4 2024 after expanding 3.1% in the prior quarter. The widening US trade deficit in goods suggests that the advance GDP data could be weaker than the market forecasts.

Faltering US economic growth prospects and looming trade war risks under Trump’s presidency could keep the buoyant tone intact around the traditional store of value – Gold. Also of note will be the weekly US Jobless Claims and the quarterly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices data.

On Wednesday, Gold price returned to the red following a hawkish hold Fed decision as perceived by market participants. The Fed held the benchmark policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% target range but altered the language in the policy statement to a slightly hawkish tone. The US central bank removed the earlier statement saying that inflation “has made progress” towards its 2% inflation goal while noting only the pace of price increases “remains elevated.”

Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy press conference, the Fed wants to see further progress on inflation and could see a pathway for that, adding, “we don’t need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments.”

Traders are pricing in around 46 basis points (bps) of cuts by year-end, a tad lower than around 48 bps before the Fed statement, indicating waning expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, per Reuters.

However, gold prices managed to stage a modest rebound late Wednesday as the USD failed to sustain Fed-inspired gains. US Treasury bond yields slipped amid souring mood as traders remained cautious ahead of the earnings results from US tech giants – Microsoft, Tesla and Meta.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains bullish, making it a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 63, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA last Thursday, confirming a Bull Cross.

Gold price needs a sustained move above the static resistance at around $2,765 to take on the upside.

However, a daily candlestick closing above the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or record high of $2,790 is critical to initiating a fresh uptrend.

The next relevant upside targets are $2,800 and the $2,850 psychological barrier.

On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,745.

Sellers will then aim for this week’s low of $2,731, folowed by the $2,700 round level, where the 21-day SMA coincides.

Oil and natural gas markets remain volatile as traders weigh geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.

Crude oil prices held steady as markets assessed the potential impact of tariff measures on major energy suppliers, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.46 million barrels, reflecting reduced demand from recent weather disruptions.

On the supply side, Russian crude exports are set to decline by 8% as refining activity increases, while OPEC+ prepares for its upcoming policy meeting.

Analysts remain skeptical of a potential price war between major producers, noting that an oversupply scenario could drive Brent crude prices below $50 if spare capacity is aggressively deployed. Traders now await further signals on production policy and global energy demand shifts.

Natural gas price forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is treading water at $3.17, with traders closely watching the $3.20 pivot level for directional cues. The commodity remains below its 50-day EMA at $3.28 and well under the 200-day EMA at $3.38, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

A break above $3.20 could spark a move toward the $3.37 resistance, potentially extending gains to $3.51 if bullish momentum strengthens. On the downside, immediate support at $3.01 is critical—losing this level may accelerate declines toward $2.88.

The market remains bearish below $3.20, with sellers in control unless buyers step in to reclaim higher ground. Until then, traders should remain cautious, as a failure to hold above key technical levels could invite further downside pressure.

WTI oil price forecast

WTI Price Chart

Crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $72.51, down 0.61%, as it struggles to find footing below the $73.49 pivot level. The 50-day EMA at $73.73 and the 200-day EMA at $74.62 continue to act as strong resistance, keeping sellers in control for now.

A break above $73.49 could shift momentum, targeting $74.93, with further upside potential toward $75.95. However, failure to reclaim this level may push oil toward $72.32, with $71.25 as the next major support.

For now, the trend remains bearish below $73.49, but a decisive move above resistance could spark a fresh rally. Traders should watch for volume confirmation before positioning for a reversal or further downside.

Brent oil price forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $75.40, down 0.59%, as it remains under pressure below the $76.38 pivot level. The 50-day EMA at $77.52 and the 200-day EMA at $78.00 signal a bearish bias, keeping upside momentum in check.

A break above $76.38 could trigger a push toward $77.83, with an extended move potentially testing $79.54. However, failure to reclaim this level may reinforce selling pressure, dragging prices toward $74.68, with $73.73 as the next critical support.

For now, the market remains bearish below $76.38, and sellers have the upper hand unless buyers regain control above resistance. A confirmed breakout or further rejection at these levels will determine the next directional move.

News.Az