The coming winter (yes, it is still officially fall until Dec. 21) will have more of an impact on household and business energy expenses than the government initially predicted. In other words, get ready to throw another log on the fire!

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has changed its Winter Fuels Outlook forecast of the impact on electrical and gas bills, a forecast made in mid-October.

“We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane,” stated the EIA in a recent update.

As a result, it means higher thermostats resulting in higher electrical and natural gas bills.

Each October, we publish a Winter Fuels Outlook with forecasts for energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for U.S. households. We categorize homes based on their main heating fuel: natural gas, electricity, propane, or heating oil. Almost all U.S. homes use one of these four fuels as their main heating source.

In each month from November through March, we update these forecasts based on actual weather and prices and the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts for future weather and prices. As the winter progresses, we update our Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts concurrently with each STEO release through April 2026.

Weather is a key source of uncertainty in our forecasts, so we provide three forecasts with different weather assumptions. Retail energy prices—especially for propane and heating oil—are sensitive to weather-related effects on energy demand, supply, and wholesale prices.

Our weather assumptions are partially based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) forecast for the current month. NOAA now expects that this December will be about 8% colder than the average of the previous 10 Decembers. In our October Winter Fuels Outlook forecast, we expected this winter would be slightly warmer than last winter; we now expect generally similar weather to last winter.

Retail natural gas and propane prices for the residential sector have also surpassed our initial forecasts. For natural gas, our retail price forecast has increased concurrently with a change in wholesale natural gas prices. When we formed our October STEO forecast, the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub was near $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). By late November, that price had increased to more than $4.00/MMBtu.

Revised forecasts for retail propane prices are attributable to new information from our Heating Oil and Propane Update, which collects data on a weekly basis in October through March. Retail propane prices in October and November have largely followed the previous winter’s price patterns despite wholesale propane prices that have been at least 10% less than the previous winter’s values.

Copper prices eased on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, extending the market’s pullback from last week’s record highs as traders weighed weaker signals from China’s economy, year-end liquidity conditions, and shifting expectations around U.S. trade policy.

After surging to an all-time high of $11,952 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) last Friday, copper has turned more volatile—moving sharply on every new data point and headline about inventories, tariffs, and demand from AI-related infrastructure.  ^[1]

Copper price today: where copper is trading on Dec. 16, 2025

Copper is traded globally across several benchmarks, and prices can differ by exchange and contract month. Here are the key reference points from today’s coverage:

• LME three-month copper slipped in early trade and remained softer later in the session, with reports showing it down to around $11,550/ton in Asian hours  ^[2] and around $11,592/ton by 09:43 GMT in London trading.  ^[3]
• LME’s official page showed a three‑month closing price (day‑delayed) of 11,655.50, up 1.22%, with the site indicating pricing data valid through Dec. 16, 2025.  ^[4]
• Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE): the most‑traded copper contract was reported down 1.29% to 91,380 yuan/ton as of 03:15 GMT.  ^[5]
• U.S. COMEX copper futures (active contract) were trading around $5.37/lb, down roughly 0.77% on the day, with the session range cited between $5.3180 and $5.4090 in the historical table for Dec. 16.  ^[6]

Why the numbers don’t perfectly match: LME “three‑month copper” is typically quoted in $/ton, SHFE in yuan/ton, and COMEX in $/lb. On top of that, outlets reference different timestamps (Asian open vs. London morning vs. close), and some feeds are delayed or contract-specific.  ^[7]

What’s moving copper today: China’s factory signal, property pressure, and “AI bubble” jitters

The day’s dominant macro driver was renewed concern about demand in China, the world’s largest copper consumer.

Reuters reporting cited slower factory output growth to a 15‑month low in November, with new home prices continuing to decline—a reminder that the property sector remains a persistent drag.  ^[8]

At the same time, copper’s pullback is not just about China. The market has been wrestling with a second narrative: whether part of the late‑2025 rally has become overly “crowded” and speculative, tied to the idea that AI data centers and electrification will overwhelm supply. Reuters noted that renewed fears of an “AI bubble” contributed to a sharp sell-off after the recent record high.  ^[9]

In plain terms: copper is being traded as both a growth metal and a theme trade. When investors feel confident about global growth and AI capex, copper can behave like a momentum asset. When doubts emerge—about China, tech valuations, or macro conditions—the market can snap back quickly.

Year-end market conditions: thin liquidity is amplifying swings

Another important piece of today’s copper story is market structure rather than fundamentals.

A separate Reuters update described cautious trading ahead of U.S. jobs data and thinning year‑end liquidity, warning that reduced depth can exaggerate intraday moves.  ^[10] In that report, analysts flagged that base‑metals price action is becoming more jumpy into late December—making copper especially vulnerable given how far it has run this year.

That same Reuters dispatch also highlighted a key “real economy” indicator watched closely by metals desks: the Yangshan copper premium (often used as a proxy for Chinese import demand) has stabilized around $42, described as a two‑month high.  ^[11] This doesn’t erase the weak macro prints from China, but it does suggest that physical market signals are not uniformly bearish.

Copper in 2025: up sharply, but increasingly headline-driven

Even after today’s dip, copper remains one of the standout performers of 2025.

Reuters reporting said copper is up about 33% year-to-date, on track for its biggest annual rise since 2009, driven by a mix of mine disruptions, U.S.-linked inventory flows, and expectations for AI and energy-transition demand.  ^[12]

Those drivers matter because they help explain why copper has been able to set records even while some traditional demand signals (like parts of China’s property market) remain weak.

The U.S. tariff wildcard: why trade policy is shaping the global copper price

If there is one theme that repeatedly shows up in today’s copper news cycle, it is this: U.S. tariff risk is influencing real-world copper flows—and, by extension, the price discovery process.

Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper forecast to $11,400/ton

A Reuters item published today said Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton(from $10,650).  ^[13]

The same report described the bank’s view that the market is increasingly centered on the timing and design of potential U.S. copper import tariffs. Goldman discussed a scenario framework including:

• A 55% chance the Trump administration announces a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026,
• Implementation in 2027, with a possible increase to 30% in 2028.  ^[14]

Goldman also noted that the possibility of future tariffs can keep U.S. copper prices at a premium to the LME benchmark and encourage stockpiling, tightening availability outside the U.S.  ^[15]

COMEX inventories and “trapped” metal: why the U.S. matters beyond the headline

Reuters reported that daily inflows to COMEX copper stocks have continued, with inventories already at record highs, a dynamic linked to the price premium and tariff uncertainty.  ^[16]

A Business Insider analysis published today makes a similar point in plain language: large U.S. inventories can become effectively “stuck” in-country, leaving the rest of the world with a tighter tradable pool—one reason the market can feel squeezed even when broader forecasts point to surplus conditions.  ^[17]

2026 outlook: deficit or surplus? The forecasts diverge sharply

One reason copper is so volatile right now is that major institutions disagree on the 2026 balance.

Goldman: higher forecast price, but a bigger surplus estimate

In the same Reuters piece on Goldman’s forecast, the bank lifted its forecast for the 2026 global market surplus to 300,000 tons (from 160,000 tons).  ^[18]

That combination—a higher price forecast alongside a larger surplus estimate—sounds contradictory at first glance. But it becomes more coherent if you think in terms of regional dislocations: copper can be “surplus” globally while still feeling tight in the places that matter most for deliverable exchange stocks and spot premiums, especially if U.S. flows continue to distort availability elsewhere.

Morgan Stanley: widening deficits and low inventories outside the U.S.

A separate Reuters excerpt on Morgan Stanley said the bank expects copper to post a 260,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and a much larger 600,000‑ton deficit in 2026.  ^[19]

Morgan Stanley also flagged that copper inventories outside the United States are low and could shrink further if U.S. imports continue and data-center demand outpaces supply growth.  ^[20]

Bottom line: On Dec. 16, the market is being pulled between two coherent—but different—stories:

• “Structural tightness” story (deficit): constrained mine supply + accelerating electrification/AI demand + low visible inventories.  ^[21]
• “Surplus with distortions” story: global balance may still show surplus, but tariffs and stockpiling can shift metal into the U.S. and tighten the ex-U.S. market, keeping prices elevated and volatile.  ^[22]

Corporate and policy headlines: consolidation and strategic importance

Copper’s record pricing is also feeding back into corporate strategy and politics.

A Financial Times report today said the Canadian government has approved the $60 billion merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, creating one of the world’s biggest copper producers (with the merged entity set to be headquartered in Vancouver, according to the report).  ^[23]

M&A of this scale matters for price watchers because it reflects a broader reality: high-quality copper assets are scarce, project timelines are long, and governments increasingly treat copper supply as strategic—especially with electrification, grid buildouts, and data-center expansion all competing for the same material.

What to watch next: the near-term catalysts that could swing copper again

Copper’s direction into late December is likely to depend on a short list of fast-moving variables:

1. China demand signals
   Traders will keep parsing industrial and property indicators for confirmation of either stabilization or further weakening, after the latest factory-output slowdown and ongoing home-price declines.  ^[24]
2. U.S. macro data and risk appetite
   Markets have been positioned cautiously ahead of key U.S. jobs data and central-bank decisions, a tone that can spill into industrial metals.  ^[25]
3. Tariff timelines and policy messaging
   Any credible hint on whether copper tariffs are coming—and when—can change the incentive to stockpile metal in the U.S. and reshape spreads between COMEX and LME.  ^[26]
4. Inventories and premiums
   The tug-of-war between tightness and surplus often shows up first in “plumbing”: exchange stocks, cancellations, and physical premiums like the Yangshan premium cited at $42 this week.  ^[27]

The takeaway for Dec. 16, 2025

Copper price today is not being set by one single driver—it’s being set by the intersection of China’s uneven recovery, tight supply narratives, AI- and electrification-linked demand expectations, and a uniquely powerful swing factor: U.S. trade policy and stockpiling.

That mix helps explain why copper can sit near record territory while still selling off hard on a weak China print, and why 2026 forecasts can disagree so widely—even among top-tier institutions—without either side sounding unreasonable.  ^[28]

References

1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.brecorder.com, 4. www.lme.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.brecorder.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.brecorder.com, 11. www.brecorder.com, 12. www.brecorder.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.brecorder.com, 28. www.tradingview.com