Platinum price provided sideways trading due to its stability below the barrier of $1960.00, which forms %161.8 Fibonacci extension level, forcing it to decline temporarily towards $1890.00.
The continuation of providing mixed trading is expected until breaching the barrier, to confirm its readiness to achieve new historical gains that might begin from $2000.00 psychological barrier, while breaking the extra support at $1860.00 level will force it to provide strong corrective trading, to expect reaching $1835.00 and $1790.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1870.00 and $ 1960.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Platinum price provided sideways trading due to its stability below the barrier of $1960.00, which forms %161.8 Fibonacci extension level, forcing it to decline temporarily towards $1890.00.
The continuation of providing mixed trading is expected until breaching the barrier, to confirm its readiness to achieve new historical gains that might begin from $2000.00 psychological barrier, while breaking the extra support at $1860.00 level will force it to provide strong corrective trading, to expect reaching $1835.00 and $1790.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1870.00 and $ 1960.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Platinum price provided sideways trading due to its stability below the barrier of $1960.00, which forms %161.8 Fibonacci extension level, forcing it to decline temporarily towards $1890.00.
The continuation of providing mixed trading is expected until breaching the barrier, to confirm its readiness to achieve new historical gains that might begin from $2000.00 psychological barrier, while breaking the extra support at $1860.00 level will force it to provide strong corrective trading, to expect reaching $1835.00 and $1790.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1870.00 and $ 1960.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Gold (XAU/USD) extends the previous day’s late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Friday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Thursday pointed to cooling of inflationary pressure. This turns out to be a key factor undermining demand for the previous metal, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. Furthermore, renewed US Dollar (USD) buying interest and a positive risk tone exert additional downward pressure on the commodity.
A delayed report published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the headline CPI rose by the 2.7% YoY rate in November against 3.1% expected. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also missed consensus estimates and climbed 2.6% last month. Economists, however, warned that the figures were likely distorted on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. This, in turn, assists the USD in attracting for the third straight day and climbs back closer to the weekly top, touched on Wednesday. A firmer Greenback tends to dent demand for USD-denominated commodities, including Gold.
Nevertheless, the crucial inflation data did little to temper expectations of further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are still pricing in a 63 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2026. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said the next Fed chair will be someone who backs sharply lower interest rates. This, in turn, could offer support to the non-yielding Gold. Meanwhile, the prospects for lower US interest rates revive investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and offsets the supporting factor, backing the case for a further near-term depreciating move for the XAU/USD pair.
Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring Existing Home Sales and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with comments from influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus to the USD and produce short-term opportunities around the Gold. Meanwhile, the XAU/USD pair still seems poised to register modest gains for the second straight week. The fundamental backdrop, however, suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside and warrants caution for bullish traders, though a break and acceptance below the $4.300 mark is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Technical Outlook
The overnight fake breakout through the $4,350-$4,355 supply zone and a subsequent fall below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Friday favor the XAU/USD bears. However, mixed oscillators on hourly and daily charts make it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $4,300 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The bullion might then fall to the $4,272-4,271 region, or the weekly low. This is followed by the $4,260-4,255 horizontal resistance breakpoint-turned-support, which, if broken, would suggest that the Gold price has topped out and expose the $4,200 round figure.
On the flip side, the $4,338-4,340 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAU/USD pair could make a fresh attempt towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $4,380 region, touched in October. Some follow-through buying, leading to a move beyond the $4,400 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the Gold price to prolong its recent well-established trend from sub-$3,900 levels, or the October swing low.
The Japanese yen slumped for the second consecutive day, even as the BoJ delivered its interest rate decision. The USDJPY pair rose to a high of 156, up sharply from this week’s low of 154.37.
Japanese yen falls after the BoJ interest rate hike
The USD to JPY exchange rate drifted upwards, even after the BoJ hiked the interest rate for the first time in eleven months. It pushed them to the highest level since 1995, continuing a trend that it started late last year.
Japanese stocks rose after the BoJ rate hike, with the Nikkei 225 Indexand the Topix jumping by over 1%. Similarly, Japanese bond yields continued rising, with the 10-year hitting the key resistance level at 2%.
The USDJPY exchange rate rose because the BoJ rate hike was already priced in by market participants. Indeed, the odds of a hike on Polymarket stood at 99% before the meeting. Most analysts were expecting the bank to hike as Kazuo Ueda had hinted.
The pair also jumped as investors waited for Kazuo Ueda’s press conference, where he will share more details on what the bank will do in 2026. In a note, an analyst from Eastspring said:
“Dollar-yen is higher because there’s no indication of more imminent hikes, and because Takata and Tamura issued ‘dissents’ on the price outlook even though the decision to hike was unanimous.”
US inflation and odds of interest rate cuts
The USDJPY exchange rate also reacted to the latest US consumer inflation reporton Thursday. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 3% in October to 2.6% in November, the lowest figure in months.
The core CPI dropped from 3.1% in October to 2.7% in November this year. This trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future because of the performance in the energy sector.
Data shows that the price of crude oilhas continued falling in the past few months, with Brent and the West of Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping to $59 and $55, respectively.
Therefore, there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will continue to diverge in the coming year. Analysts expect the Fed to keep cutting interest rates, while the BoJ may deliver one or more hikes.
The daily timeframe chart shows that the USDJPY exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months.
It jumped from a low of 139.90 in April to the current 156.07. It has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The pair has remained above the Supertrend indicator and is slowly forming a bullish flag pattern. This pattern is made up of a vertical line and a descending channel, which has been in place for the past few weeks.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the USDJPY exchange rate continues rising, with the next key target being the year-to-date high of 157.82. A move above that level will point to more upside, potentially to 160 in the next few months.
The USD/JPY forecast is expected to tilt downside as the BoJ rate hike expectations increase the yen’s demand.
The US CPI data showed a cooling momentum, while Japan’s inflation remains sticky.
Fed-BoJ divergence could support the USD/JPY in the near term.
The USD/JPY is trading under pressure in anticipation of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement. However, the pair has slightly gained despite an upbeat national CPI in Japan.
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The BoJ will announce its rate decision between 03:30 and 05:00 GMT, and the press conference of Governor Kazuo Ueda will take place at 06:30 GMT. Investors are awaiting clarity, which is reducing trading activity.
The BoJ is expected to increase its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. This would be the highest in nearly 30 years, if confirmed. The action would suggest that inflation and wage growth are sufficiently high to warrant stricter policy. Recent inflation statistics support this, as Japan’s national CPI increased by 2.9% in November. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes fresh food, stood at 3.0%.
The USD/JPY remains choppy ahead of the meeting. The pair has partially erased the losses, but the selling pressure has appeared in gradual steps, implying a strategic positioning rather than a panic-driven response.
US data has also played a role. The November CPI was reported as 2.7% YoY, which is significantly lower than the expected 3.1% while core CPI slowed to 2.6%. The price gain was only 0.2% per month. The statistics alleviated concerns about inflation, allowing the Fed to maintain its easing policy in 2026. The Treasury yields fell, pushing the greenback lower against most of its peers.
The policy divergence between the US and Japan is evident, influencing the USD/JPY trades. Japan is heading towards a rate hike, while the US is looking to ease further in 2026. The narrowing yield gaps support the yen, devaluing the dollar.
USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Awaiting a Breakout
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
The USD/JPY price remains technically supported by the confluence of 20- and 200-period MAs, while wobbling around the 50- and 100-period MAs. Meanwhile, the RSI stays above the 50.0 level but is flat. This suggests the pair lies in the consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst to trigger a breakout.
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A breakout below the 20-period MA could push the prices to test the demand zone near 154.50 ahead of a horizontal level at 153.00. On the upside, the first resistance level emerges at 156.00, ahead of a potential swing high near the December highs at 156.90.
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The US dollar reversed after an initial rally as softer CPI data fueled rate-cut speculation, keeping USD/JPY volatile.
Despite near-term noise and Bank of Japan risk, pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities amid a persistent rate differential.
The US dollar initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday, but gave back gains rather quickly, mainly due to the CPI numbers coming out with a lower-than-anticipated number in the United States. Therefore, people are starting to focus on the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve may have to cut rates more quickly.
With that being the case, the market remains very noisy, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we continue to see a lot of volatility, but that’s nothing new for this pair. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that on Friday, we get the interest rate decision coming out of the Bank of Japan, so this is a pair that could get turned around right away.
Key Levels, Policy Risk, and Trade Bias
With that being the case, this is watched very closely, and pullbacks are being viewed at this point in time as buying opportunities. The 50-day EMA is near the 4.12 level and rising, and it should offer a little bit of support. The ¥158 level above is where a potential target is being watched.
Whether or not the market gets there between now and the end of the year is a completely different question, but it is expected eventually. The interest rate differential will continue to favor the Americans for the foreseeable future, and inflation and growth in the United States are expected to remain above the optimal level for the central bank. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will likely have to be a little cautious with its rate-cutting cycle.
This does not appear to be a major inflection point, at least not yet. As a result, there is no real reason to believe that the Japanese yen is going to appreciate significantly. There may be the potential for a pullback in this pair after the Bank of Japan statement or press conference, but that should be looked at as a potential opportunity.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Oil Price Today: WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F Hover Near Multi-Month Lows
Spot Levels and Year-to-Date Damage for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F
Oil is weak, not collapsing. On 18 December 2025, WTI (CL=F) trades around $56–$57 and Brent (BZ=F) is near $60 per barrel. Intraday, Brent is up roughly 0.5–0.7% around $59.9–$60.1, while WTI adds about 0.7–1.0% near $56.3–$56.5, a modest bounce after WTI closed near $55.27 earlier in the week, its lowest settle since February 2021. Even after this uptick, 2025 remains a drawdown year: WTI is down roughly 21% year-to-date, and Brent is lower by just under 20%, consistent with a market that has been pricing oversupply and soft demand rather than a persistent shortage.
Geopolitics vs Glut: Blockade Noise, Russia Sanctions Risk and PDVSA Turmoil
Today’s modest rise is driven by a geopolitical risk premium, not by a structural tightening in balances. The United States has ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned tankers moving Venezuelan crude in and out of the country. Estimates suggest around 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports are potentially at risk, with flows to the U.S. of roughly 160,000 bpd still partially protected by authorizations linked to Chevron (NYSE:CVX) cargoes. Venezuelan flows represent roughly 1% of global supply, but sanctioned tonnage and insurance risk inject volatility into freight and risk pricing. At the same time, Venezuela’s PDVSA is recovering from a cyberattack that temporarily froze loadings. While operations have resumed, many export shipments remain delayed, adding another layer of uncertainty to short-term export volumes. Parallel to Venezuela, traders are watching the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if peace talks over Ukraine stall, plus new European measures targeting dozens of vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” designed to constrain sanctioned crude transport. In theory, these steps should be clearly bullish. In practice, the price impact is capped because the market’s dominant narrative is still “too much oil”, not “too little.”
Evidence of Oversupply: Inventories, Products and Oil on Water
Recent U.S. inventory data highlight the imbalance. Crude stocks fell by roughly 1.3 million barrels to about 424.4 million barrels in the week ending 12 December, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected. The crude draw is driven mainly by stronger exports and higher refinery runs, not by a surge in end-demand. Refinery utilization has climbed to the highest levels since early September, yet refined product stocks are building. That tells you the system is well supplied: refineries are processing heavily, but downstream demand is not tight enough to absorb output cleanly. Globally, official outlooks for 2025–2026 show demand growth around 830,000 bpd in 2025 and 860,000 bpd in 2026, while observed inventories rise and crude held “on water” increases sharply as cargoes take longer routes or sit waiting for buyers. Analyst scenarios for 2026 point to potential surpluses ranging roughly from 0.5 million bpd to over 4 million bpd, depending on how OPEC+, U.S. shale and new producers like Brazil, Guyana and Argentina behave. That is why every geopolitical shock is being faded: the default assumption is structural surplus, so disruptions must be large and prolonged to reprice the complex in a lasting way.
2026 Outlook for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F: Mid-$50s to Low-$60s Strip
Forward price projections for Brent (BZ=F) in 2026 cluster around the low-to-mid $50–$60 range, with WTI (CL=F) a few dollars lower. One major official U.S. forecast sees Brent averaging around $55 in Q1 2026 and staying close to that through the year. A large investment bank projects Brent around $56 and WTI near $52 in 2026, again reflecting depressed but not catastrophic pricing. A survey of analysts published recently shows Brent averaging about $62.2 and WTI around $59.0 in 2026. Different methodologies, similar conclusion: nobody is modeling a structurally tight oil market next year. Where they differ is timing of the turn. Several houses argue that by 2027 prices will need to move higher to incentivize new upstream investment as reserve life shrinks and U.S. shale matures, but the consensus is that 2026 itself is a low-pricing, surplus year, not a major bull market.
U.S. Shale, OPEC+ and the Pain Threshold Around $50 WTI CL=F
The WTI (CL=F) strip around $55–$57 is already uncomfortable for many producers. Internal modeling at major banks suggests that if WTI averages $57 in 2026, U.S. shale output could shrink by roughly 70,000 bpd instead of growing. Some official projections go further and flag a possible ~100,000 bpd drop in U.S. crude output in 2026 from 2025 levels as lower prices and a smaller rig fleet cap production. U.S. oil rig counts are down more than 15% from the start of the year and sit at their lowest since late 2021, consistent with a sector moving from “growth at any cost” to capital discipline. For many independents, WTI in the low-$50s is close to the point where protecting balance sheets takes priority over adding barrels. Even for supermajors, sustained prices near $50 compress returns on higher-cost projects. For OPEC producers, that price band is fiscally painful. This is why WTI around $50 is unlikely to be sustainable for long. Below that, a forced response is probable: deeper OPEC+ cuts, postponed projects, and a more aggressive capex reset in shale. The current strip fully prices a surplus, but it does not yet price a world where producers are forced into a meaningful supply contraction.
Demand Side for Oil: Weak Optics but No Structural Collapse Yet
On the demand side, the headline story is cautious: slower global growth, efficiency gains and the rise of alternatives. Yet several factors limit how bearish you can be. Earlier in 2025, tariff and trade-war risk was a major overhang. That pressure has eased after a new round of trade deals, reducing one large source of demand uncertainty. At the same time, fresh data show stronger fuel demand from India, which is now one of the key marginal buyers of crude globally. Forecasts that once called for oil demand to peak by the early 2030s have been pushed out. Some large institutions now expect demand to keep rising until at least 2040, albeit at a slower pace. This does not rescue 2026 – which still looks like “too much supply versus moderate demand growth” – but it clearly shows that long-term demand is not collapsing. The near-term tape is driven by inventory builds and oversupply; the long-term tape still has a clear consumption base.
Price action for WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) fully reflects the fundamental picture: fragile bounces inside a broader downtrend. For WTI (CL=F), the $55 zone is the key short-term floor. A decisive break below $55 exposes the $52 region quickly, based on the next support band. Moves higher into the $58–$60 area are still being treated as rallies to sell, not as the start of a new uptrend, because there is no evidence yet of structural tightening in balances. For Brent (BZ=F), price is hovering around $60, which has become a pivot rather than a firm support. Repeated attempts to gap higher toward the low $60s have been sold off and quickly filled. A break below roughly $58 would likely drag Brent toward $55, consistent with the 2026 averages being projected. Momentum indicators and the pattern of failed bounces both point to a market trying to form a bottom but not confirmed. There is no technical validation of a bull phase until WTI can sustain trades above roughly $60 and Brent can push and hold into the mid-$60s. For now, the pattern remains sell-the-rally, not buy-the-dip.
Forward Curve, Producer Sentiment and the Floor-Versus-Ceiling Dynamic
The forward curve reinforces this picture. The strip implies Brent (BZ=F) in the mid-$50s to low-$60s and WTI (CL=F) in the low-to-high-$50s for 2026, matching the bulk of published forecasts. Industry executives are guiding for another dull year in 2026 with low prices, muted upstream spending and limited growth in production. At the same time, large integrated producers are clear that prices at this level are not viable indefinitely if the world wants stable supply into the 2030s. Stronger balance sheets at names like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) allow them to operate through this strip, but they will not rush to sanction expensive long-cycle projects until pricing improves. Smaller shale operators are already throttling activity, which is why several projections show U.S. output potentially dipping next year despite sizeable resources. This creates a floor-versus-ceiling regime: the floor is set by the point at which producers start cutting supply aggressively, likely the low-$50s WTI / low-$50s Brent band, and by geopolitical risk around Russia and Venezuela; the ceiling is imposed by high inventories, surging oil on water and credible surplus forecasts that make every spike look like a selling opportunity.
Investment View on WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F: Tactical Bearish, Strategic Hold
Combining spot, fundamentals, technicals and the curve leads to a clear stance on WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) at current prices. With WTI around $56–$57 and Brent near $60, the market is trading close to the center of the 2026 forecast range. Supply-demand projections and inventory trends argue that oversupply will keep rallies capped through most of 2026 unless there is a large, sustained disruption. At the same time, prices much below $50 WTI / low-$50s Brent would almost certainly force a supply reaction from U.S. shale and OPEC+, and most serious outlooks are already baking in some degree of restraint. Based on the data, the view is: near term (next 6–12 months), tactical bias is bearish, with strength into roughly $60+ WTI / mid-$60s Brent still better used for selling rather than chasing. Over 12–24 months, stance is HOLD on crude benchmarks: the downside toward the low-$50s is real as long as the surplus story dominates, but structural under-investment and maturing shale give a credible path back into the $65–$75 Brent zone later in the decade.
Today’s bearish behavior adds to the likelihood that the next lower key support zone may be reached before the current retracement completes. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.89 defined this week’s support zone. The reaction of price resistance represented by the 50-day line and a top channel line has shown the sellers remaining in charge. The two indicators show a similar price area for resistance and today’s bearish reaction confirms it. Once prior key support is shown as resistance, the downtrend may be ready to proceed. However, a drop below and daily close below this week’s low of $3.84 is still needed for a bearish continuation signal.
Deeper Support Targets
If natural gas fails to take out today’s high before a new trend low, then the next lower target looks likely to be reached. The 200-day average at $3.58 anchors the next lower price zone, along with a long-term uptrend line and a horizontal level around $3.59. That price area was shown as both clear support and resistance in the past. Most recently with the October high at $3.59.
More significantly, the 2023 peak was at $3.64. If that zone fails to reverse price, then the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.45 becomes a target. There is also confirmation for the 200-day price zone in the weekly chart as the 50-week and 20-week averages are at $3.63 and $3.61, respectively.
Upside Reversal Requirements
On the upside, a decisive breakout above today’s high would be needed for a bullish reversal. That would put natural gas in a position to challenge resistance near the 20-day average, now at $4.55 and falling.
Outlook
Natural gas’s bounce has stalled exactly at flipped support with a bearish engulfing pattern, reinforcing seller dominance and raising odds of a confirmed break below $3.84. Hold above today’s high to keep countertrend hopes alive; failure opens acceleration toward the powerful 200-day confluence at $3.58–$3.64 and potentially $3.45 if that breaks.
The GBPUSD pair has transformed into a technical battleground as the trading week nears its close. A combination of a divided Bank of England (BoE) and a cooling US inflation report has created a “whipsaw” environment, leaving the price resting precariously on a significant layer of technical support.
The BoE Catalyst: A narrow 5-4 vote for a “hawkish cut” by the Bank of England initially sparked Sterling strength, signaling that the path to future rate cuts remains steep.
The CPI Whipsaw: A soft US CPI print (2.7%) sent the pair to a multi-week high of 1.3446 before a massive retracement saw the pair surrender all daily gains.
The Technical Floor: The price is currently testing a “cluster” of four major moving averages between 1.3348 and 1.3380, a zone that will define the trend for the Friday close.
Breaking Down the Momentum: From Hawkish Cuts to Soft CPI
The initial leg of the GBPUSD rally was fundamentally driven. The Bank of England’s decision to cut rates—but with a clear 5-4 split—indicated to the markets that the BoE is not in a rush to ease aggressively. This “hawkish lean” gave the British Pound a head start against a softening Greenback.
Later, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) added fuel to the fire. The weaker-than-expected inflation data triggered a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar, propelling the “Cable” above a series of key daily and hourly moving averages. This move saw the pair challenge the highs of the last two weeks, specifically testing the Tuesday peak near 1.3455.
The “Moving Average Cluster” Barometer
Despite the breakout, momentum failed to hold. The pair has retraced back into a dense zone where four critical moving averages are currently overlapping. This “cluster” acts as a massive technical pivot point:
As long as the price remains within or above this zone, the “Up and Down” volatility theme persists. The price action today reached as low as 1.3370 before stabilizing slightly, keeping the market in a state of high suspense.
The Roadmap: What to Watch for the Friday Close
As we transition into the final session of the week, the cluster of moving averages will serve as the primary barometer for directional bias.
The Bullish Scenario
For the buyers to reclaim the driver’s seat, they must keep the price sustained above the 1.33804 (100-hour MA). A push above the 1.3405 swing area is required to confirm that the bears have been flushed out. If successful, the door opens for another run toward the recent highs at 1.34526.
The Bearish Scenario
If the sellers gain enough traction to break below the bottom of the cluster at 1.33488 (200-day MA), the technical picture turns decidedly bearish. A break here would likely trigger a retest of the weekly low at 1.33118, with a secondary target at last week’s low and the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.32833.
Watch the Video Analysis
In the video above, Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into these GBPUSD technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you define the bias, the risk, and the specific targets that will matter most today and going forward.
