Rising Yields Complicate the Gold Setup

The most notable development last week was the move in U.S. Treasurys. The 10-year yield rallied to 4.186%, its highest level since September 2025, closing up 0.047 on the week.

That rise would typically act as a headwind for bullion, and it likely contributed to gold pausing just below last week’s peak. Traders noted that the Fed’s divided vote on its third consecutive rate cut raised questions about the pace of easing in 2026, and the market responded by pushing yields higher rather than lower.

With the 10-year sitting just off multi-month highs, any further firming this week could temporarily slow gold’s upside attempts.

Dollar Weakness Remains a Supportive Offset

Despite the rise in yields, the U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction, slipping to multi-month lows and offering consistent support for gold. The disconnect between stronger yields and a weaker dollar gave traders a unique setup: gold faced pressure from the bond market but continued to attract demand from overseas buyers taking advantage of favorable currency conditions.

As long as the dollar stays soft, gold retains a tailwind even in the face of elevated Treasury yields.

Jobs and CPI Data Take Center Stage

This week’s data will shape how traders interpret the Fed’s next steps. Payrolls are expected to show flat hiring in October and a modest 50,000 increase in November, with unemployment edging up to 4.5%.

Silver prices surged above $60 and hit a record $64.64 this week, powered by Fed cuts, a global supply squeeze, and booming industrial demand. Here’s the latest news, key drivers, and a 2026 forecast outlook for silver (XAG/USD).

Published: Dec. 14, 2025

Silver just delivered one of the most dramatic weeks in modern precious-metals trading: a clean break above $60/oz, a sprint to fresh all-time highs near $64–$65, and then a sharp, late-week pullback as traders took profits into the weekend.

From December 8 to December 14, 2025, the story of silver prices has been equal parts macro (a Federal Reserve rate cut and a softer U.S. dollar), micro (tight physical availability and inventory shifts), and structural (multi‑year supply deficits colliding with relentless industrial demand—from solar and EVs to the accelerating build-out of AI infrastructure). ^[1]

Below is a detailed recap of the week’s key developments, the most-cited forecasts and analyst views published in the Dec. 8–14 window, and the price levels investors are watching next.

Silver price recap: the key moments from Dec. 8–14, 2025

Monday, Dec. 8: Silver started the week softer as markets waited for the Fed. Spot silver was reported around $57.98/oz, after having hit $59.32 the prior Friday. ^[2]

Tuesday, Dec. 9: The psychological barrier broke. Spot silver jumped above $60 and printed a new all-time high around $60.74/oz, with Reuters citing “supply constraints” and strong multi‑year demand expectations. ^[3]

Wednesday, Dec. 10: After the Fed’s decision, the rally extended. Reuters reported silver hitting a new record near $61.85/oz, with prices up roughly 113% year-to-date at that point and supported by industrial demand, falling inventories, and silver’s U.S. “critical mineral” designation. ^[4]

Thursday, Dec. 11: Momentum accelerated. Reuters reported spot silver up near $64.22/oz, hovering close to a record high around $64.31/oz, as the U.S. dollar weakened and investors digested the Fed’s cut and outlook. ^[5]

Friday, Dec. 12: A blow-off top — and a reality check. Reuters reported silver hitting an all-time high of $64.64/oz, then falling nearly 3% to about $61.7/oz as profit-taking set in. Reuters also noted silver was up nearly 5% on the week and up about 112% in 2025. ^[6]

Weekend, Dec. 13–14: With major markets closed, analysis shifted to sustainability and local-market spillovers. In India, The Economic Times reported MCX silver futures crossed Rs 2,00,000, with the March contract touching Rs 2,01,615 on Dec. 12, before a correction—underscoring how global dollar moves and domestic currency dynamics can amplify volatility. ^[7]

For a futures-market snapshot, Investing.com’s silver futures historical data shows a sharp climb into the week’s peak and a lower close into Friday (Dec. 12). ^[8]

Why silver surged: the 4 drivers behind the $60 breakout

1) The Fed cut rates — and the U.S. dollar weakened

The week’s biggest macro catalyst was the Federal Reserve’s quarter‑point rate cut and the market’s attempt to interpret what comes next.

Reuters coverage across the week emphasized that lower rates tend to favor non‑yielding precious metals, and that the U.S. dollar’s decline helped support silver’s rally as the metal became cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers. ^[9]

But the tone wasn’t purely “dovish.” Reuters also highlighted policy uncertainty and internal division, a reminder that silver can react violently if rate expectations reprice. ^[10]

Why it matters for silver: Unlike gold, silver is both a monetary and an industrial asset. When easing financial conditions coincide with strong manufacturing and electrification demand, silver often behaves like a “high-beta” precious metal—moving more than gold in both directions. ^[11]

2) A tightening physical market — plus tariff uncertainty moving metal around the world

A critical theme running through Dec. 8–14 commentary: the physical market looks tight, even when headline inventories appear large.

• The Financial Times pointed to an ongoing multi‑year supply deficit and described how tariff fears and policy uncertainty have helped pull inventory toward the U.S., while some regions—notably China—still show signs of shortage despite ample Comex stocks. ^[12]
• ING’s Dec. 8 analysis argued tariff uncertainty has driven metal from London to the U.S., contributing to an unusually persistent dislocation between Comex futures and London prices and elevating “lease rates” (borrowing costs). ING also noted Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked inventories fell to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, with large volumes shipped internationally in recent months. ^[13]

The takeaway: Silver’s rally isn’t only a paper-market story. When participants worry about the ability to source deliverable metal—or fear import frictions—prices can overshoot quickly.

3) Industrial demand is doing the heavy lifting: solar, EVs, electronics — and now AI

Silver’s “dual-use” identity is front and center in this rally.

Reuters reported that the Silver Institute expects industrial demand to be driven higher through 2030 by sectors including solar energy, EVs and their infrastructure, and data centers and artificial intelligence. ^[14]

Business Insider amplified the AI angle, arguing silver has become increasingly tied to the AI infrastructure build-out (data centers, advanced chips, and next‑gen electronics), citing commentary from strategists and industry research. ^[15]

Why the market cares right now: When investors believe demand is “structural” (not just cyclical), they often pay up for scarce materials—and silver’s supply pipeline is notoriously difficult to ramp quickly. ^[16]

4) Momentum, positioning, and the “silver leads gold” narrative

Several widely shared notes this week described a market dynamic where silver is no longer simply “following gold”—it is increasingly leading.

Reuters quoted analysts noting speculative flows into silver as a “more levered play” within the precious-metals complex. ^[17]
ING also pointed to renewed investor interest and a sharply lower gold/silver ratio (a sign of silver outperformance). ^[18]

That’s a powerful cocktail: strong fundamentals + macro tailwinds + momentum traders.

It is also why pullbacks can be sharp.

Forecasts and analyst views published Dec. 8–14: what comes next for silver?

This week’s forecasts largely converge on one message: the long-term setup is constructive, but near-term volatility risk is rising.

Near-term: “Overheated” warnings grow louder

By Friday, as silver fell from the highs, Reuters cited a CMZ note saying the move had become “excessive,” calling for caution even while maintaining a positive longer-term view tied to industrial demand. ^[19]

Technical analysts echoed that. FXStreet’s Dec. 12 coverage described silver as overbought, highlighting RSI readings and warning signals that often show up near short-term peaks. ^[20]

Monex (publishing an excerpt from CPM Group’s advisory) similarly said the medium-term view remains constructive, but flagged the possibility of a pause and retracement after a very fast move. ^[21]

2026 outlook: “Supported, but volatile” is the base case

Among the clearest longer-horizon calls in the Dec. 8–14 window:

• ING (Dec. 8): expects silver prices to remain well-supported, but emphasizes that volatility should persist. ING’s base case includes an average silver price around $55/oz in 2026, citing supply deficits, constrained supply growth, and a more favorable macro backdrop—while warning that a sharper global slowdown could hit the industrial side. ^[22]

Other outlets framed the same outlook with different emphasis:

• The Financial Times highlighted the multi-year supply deficit and how policy/tariff uncertainty can keep markets tight and price-sensitive. ^[23]
• MarketWatch described the $60 milestone as a “make-or-break” moment for a crowded trade and stressed that silver’s history includes dramatic reversals—making risk management essential even for bulls. ^[24]
• The Economic Times (Dec. 14) presented both bullish long-term targets and warnings that the market looks “technically overstretched,” implying corrections are plausible even within a broader uptrend. ^[25]

Technical levels to watch after the $64.64 peak

Even long-term fundamental stories trade through short-term levels. For the week ending Dec. 14, technical coverage repeatedly highlighted a few zones:

Resistance zones

• $62.00–$62.80: a “reclaim” area after Friday’s selloff, cited as near-term resistance/support pivots by FXStreet. ^[26]
• $64.30–$64.65: the recent record-high region that bulls must defend on any retest. ^[27]
• ~$65.00 and $68.17: FXStreet pointed to $65 as a channel/psychological level and highlighted $68.17 as a higher technical target (Fibonacci extension) if momentum returns. ^[28]

Support zones

• $61.00: FXStreet flagged this as first key support after the drop. ^[29]
• $60.00–$60.09: a major psychological and technical area, also referenced as prior support. ^[30]
• ~$59.33: another downside reference level cited by FXStreet. ^[31]

Interpretation: The market just proved it can trade above $60. The next question is whether it can hold above $60 after the first major profit-taking wave.

The biggest risks to silver prices from here

Even the most bullish outlooks published this week carried explicit warnings. The key risks highlighted across Dec. 8–14 analysis include:

A) Macro whiplash: data that changes the Fed narrative

Reuters repeatedly pointed to upcoming U.S. data—including the non‑farm payrolls report due Dec. 16—as a near-term catalyst for rate expectations. If the dollar rebounds and real yields rise, silver can give back gains quickly. ^[32]

B) Industrial demand slowdown or “demand destruction”

ING’s analysis warned the primary risk is industrial: a sharper global slowdown (electronics/manufacturing) could cool silver’s momentum. It also noted higher prices can eventually trigger demand destruction. ^[33]

C) Policy and trade uncertainty cuts both ways

Tariff fear can tighten markets, but any policy clarity that reduces friction can also unwind squeezes. FT and ING both described how policy uncertainty has influenced physical flows and inventory positioning. ^[34]

D) Silver’s defining trait: volatility

ING calls silver “gold on steroids”—it tends to move more than gold in percentage terms. That’s great in a melt-up and painful in a drawdown. ^[35]

What to watch next week: catalysts after Dec. 14, 2025

With the Fed decision behind the market and the weekend pause in trading, attention shifts to:

1. U.S. non-farm payrolls (Dec. 16) and any data that shifts 2026 rate expectations. ^[36]
2. The U.S. dollar and yields, which have been a key tailwind for precious metals in this move. ^[37]
3. Physical tightness signals: inventory movements, regional premiums, and borrowing/lease-rate pressures described in this week’s research. ^[38]
4. Industrial headlines: especially around solar deployment, electrification, and AI/data-center buildout narratives that have increasingly become part of the “silver thesis.” ^[39]
5. Local market amplification (notably India), where currency moves and domestic demand can magnify price swings. ^[40]

Bottom line

Between Dec. 8 and Dec. 14, 2025, silver’s breakout above $60 and sprint to $64.64 crystallized a new market reality: silver is no longer trading as a sleepy cousin of gold. It’s trading as a strategically important industrial metal and a macro-sensitive monetary asset—meaning it can rally explosively when the dollar weakens and physical tightness meets a surge in demand narratives. ^[41]

But the same ingredients that powered the move—momentum, positioning, and tightness—also raise the odds of sharp retracements. Most Dec. 8–14 forecasts converge on a balanced view: well-supported longer-term fundamentals, with elevated near-term volatility. ^[42]

Note: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. m.economictimes.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. think.ing.com, 12. www.ft.com, 13. think.ing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.businessinsider.com, 16. think.ing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. think.ing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.fxstreet.com, 21. www.monex.com, 22. think.ing.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. m.economictimes.com, 26. www.fxstreet.com, 27. www.fxstreet.com, 28. www.fxstreet.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.fxstreet.com, 31. www.fxstreet.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. think.ing.com, 34. www.ft.com, 35. think.ing.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. think.ing.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. m.economictimes.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com

Natural gas price succeeded in resuming the bearish corrective attack, targeting extra support level at $4.200, reminding you that monitoring the price behavior now to confirm the expected targets in the upcoming trading.

The stability above this support will push it to begin forming bullish waves, to target $4.550 level reaching 38.2%Fibonacci correction level near $4.750, while breaking the current support will ease the mission of pressing on the bullish channel’s support at $3.950, increasing the chances of moving to the negative scenario in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.200 and $4.550

Trend forecast: Bullish

Updated: 13 December 2025
Meta description: Glencore plc shares are being pulled between a red‑hot copper market, fresh operational guidance, Congo’s cobalt export quotas, and shifting analyst calls. Here’s the latest news, forecasts, and what could move GLEN in 2026.

Glencore plc stock is back in the spotlight heading into mid‑December, with investors trying to reconcile two very Glencore‑ish realities at once:

1. Copper is ripping—fueled by AI data‑center power demand, grid upgrades, and tight supply.
2. Operational execution still matters—and Glencore has trimmed near‑term copper guidance even as it talks up a long runway of growth.

Add in Congo’s restarted cobalt export system, a UBS downgrade on valuation, ongoing buybacks, and a freshly published 2026 corporate calendar, and you’ve got a busy setup for anyone tracking Glencore shares (LSE: GLEN; Reuters ticker GLEN.L). ^[1]

Glencore share price snapshot as of 13.12.2025

Because 13 December 2025 is a Saturday, the most recent full session is Friday, 12 December. Glencore shares were around the mid‑370p level at the latest close, after trading in a wide intraday band. Data providers show ~375.5p as the latest price, with the day’s range roughly 375.5p to 384.6p. ^[2]

That matters for context because several broker notes published this week peg price targets in the low‑400p to mid‑400p region—implying upside, but not unlimited room if the stock is already near the top of its recent range.

The macro tailwind: copper is nearing $12,000—and AI is part of the story

One of the biggest external drivers for Glencore right now is simply this: copper prices are flirting with $12,000 per metric ton, after a strong 2025 rally. Reuters points to a collision of tight supply and surging demand tied to electricity infrastructure, renewables, EVs—and increasingly AI data centers, which require massive, reliable power delivery (and therefore a lot of copper). ^[3]

Reuters also referenced expectations for market deficits (shortfalls) in copper in 2025 and 2026, alongside demand growth projections (including China and ex‑China demand). ^[4]

For Glencore investors, this is the core narrative: if copper is structurally tight for years, copper‑levered miners should benefit—and Glencore has been positioning itself to look more “copper-forward” over time.

Glencore’s big strategic message: a pathway to 1 million tonnes of copper by 2028—and 1.6 million by 2035

At its Capital Markets Day (3 December 2025), Glencore laid out a copper growth strategy that is ambitious even by mining’s long‑cycle standards:

• A pathway to ~1 million tonnes of annual copper production by the end of 2028
• A longer‑range target of ~1.6 million tonnes by 2035
• An expected 4% compound annual growth rate in “copper equivalent” production from 2026–2029, with copper production expected to grow faster over that period ^[5]

Management also emphasized that many projects are brownfield (expansions/optimizations at existing sites), which the market often prefers because it can be more capital efficient and less “bet-the-company” than a brand‑new mega‑mine. ^[6]

Glencore also used the event to reiterate the importance of its marketing (trading) business, describing it as continuing to perform well—an important point, because Glencore’s valuation is often a tug‑of‑war between “miner multiple” and “trading house multiple.” ^[7]

The catch: near-term copper guidance was cut for 2026—Collahuasi is the issue

Here’s where the plot thickens.

Despite long‑term optimism, Glencore has lowered its 2026 copper output expectations, with multiple industry sources attributing the change largely to challenges at Collahuasi in Chile (a joint venture). Fastmarkets reports Glencore guiding around ~840,000 tonnes of copper output in 2026 versus earlier plans near ~930,000 tonnes, citing lower grades and water constraints at Collahuasi. ^[8]

Crucially, that same reporting indicates Glencore expects a rebound: ~930,000 tonnes in 2027 and a return to the 1 million‑tonne level in 2028, assuming recovery and ramp-ups proceed as planned. ^[9]

Argus also frames it as short‑term pain for long‑term gain, noting the 2026 guidance cut and describing how development work at Collahuasi supports longer‑term output growth, even if it weighs on the immediate run‑rate. ^[10]

In plain English: Glencore wants to be a bigger copper story—but the bridge to that future still runs through operational bottlenecks.

Alumbrera restart in Argentina: a long-dated, but meaningful growth lever

Glencore also says it plans to restart operations at Alumbrera in Argentina, a mine that previously operated until 2018. Reuters reported that Glencore plans a restart of operations by the end of 2026, with production likely beginning in the first half of 2028. Reuters also noted Glencore pointing to Argentina’s investment/tax framework (including the RIGI incentive regime) and the outlook for copper and gold as part of the rationale. ^[11]

This is not a “next quarter” catalyst. It’s the kind of project markets typically discount heavily until the permitting, capex, and execution risk starts to compress. But it fits the broader thesis: Glencore is trying to stack future copper optionality while copper fundamentals look structurally supportive.

Chilean smelter partnership with Codelco: a downstream move with strategic logic

Glencore isn’t only talking mines. It is also stepping into strategic processing capacity discussions.

Reuters reported that Codelco and Glencore signed an initial agreement to collaborate on a smelter project in Chile’s Antofagasta region. Under the outline:

• Glencore would build a smelter with capacity around 1.5 million tonnes per year of concentrate
• Codelco would supply up to 800,000 tonnes annually for at least a decade
• Investment estimates cited by Reuters were $1.5–$2.0 billion
• Timeline: pre‑feasibility now; finalize agreement targeted for H1 2026; construction potentially 2030, operations 2032–2033 ^[12]

Why should equity investors care about something that far out?

Because processing is a geopolitical and industrial chokepoint. Reuters highlighted how treatment charges have been pressured in a tight concentrate market and how Chile wants to build more domestic smelting capacity rather than rely heavily on offshore processing. ^[13]

This is less about next week’s share price and more about where Glencore wants to sit in the copper value chain over the next decade.

Congo cobalt export quotas: Glencore ships first cargo under the new system

Glencore’s battery‑materials exposure also moved back onto center stage this week.

Reuters reported that Glencore became the first miner to export cobalt under the Democratic Republic of Congo’s new cobalt export quota system, sending a small initial shipment as a pilot. The system includes a 10% royalty, quarterly quotas, and (from 2026) an annual export cap. Reuters also reported that traders who originally expected shipments to restart earlier have pushed expectations out, with the first full‑sized cargo now expected later—Reuters mentioned April for the first full‑sized shipment expectation from Congo. ^[14]

Reuters also cited cobalt prices trading around $24/lb, sharply above earlier‑year lows, reflecting how export constraints can reprice the market fast. ^[15]

For Glencore stock, this is a double‑edged driver:

• Higher cobalt prices can be supportive for cobalt‑linked earnings.
• Regulatory friction and procedural ambiguity (royalties, compliance, approvals) inject uncertainty into volumes, timing, and working capital dynamics. ^[16]

Operational streamlining: Glencore cuts ~1,000 roles

On the cost and execution front, Reuters reported on 3 December that Glencore eliminated about 1,000 roles as it streamlines its industrial operating structure. ^[17]

Glencore’s own Capital Markets Day statement also flagged a streamlined operating structure with an emphasis on accountability and operating performance—so the staffing move lands as part of a broader “tighten the machine” narrative rather than a one‑off headline. ^[18]

Markets often like cost discipline, but they also ask the uncomfortable question: is this optimization, or is it a response to underlying operational strain? The answer usually shows up in production reports and unit costs over time.

South Africa: Eskom support discussions for Glencore-Merafe chrome venture

Reuters also reported that South Africa’s Eskom announced an agreement (MoU) with Samancor Chrome and the Glencore‑Merafe Chrome Venture, with the energy regulator reviewing an interim tariff adjustment. Reuters said the companies committed to suspend layoffs and restore part of furnace capacity if interim pricing relief is approved, while longer‑term solutions are explored. ^[19]

This matters because power pricing is often the difference between “cash machine” and “cash fire” in energy‑intensive processing assets.

Australia: strike risks reappear at Mount Isa and Townsville operations

On 13 December, Australian media reported that union members backed potential industrial action at Glencore’s Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville refinery following wage negotiations. The reports reference the context of the A$600 million government support package announced earlier in 2025 and the sensitivity around pay, inflation, and operating viability. ^[20]

Investors should treat this as a site‑level risk variable: industrial action can pressure output and costs even when commodity prices are favorable.

Buybacks: Glencore continues to retire shares ahead of 2025 results

Glencore’s capital return program remains an important support pillar for the equity.

An RNS filing carried by the Financial Times market feed detailed an off‑market purchase of 6.4 million shares from UBS (dated 5 December 2025), with shares bought for cancellation. The RNS also stated this forms part of Glencore’s existing buyback programme, expected to be completed around the release of full‑year 2025 financial results in February 2026. ^[21]

In a market that’s increasingly allergic to vague promises, buybacks are a concrete signal: management is willing to convert cash into fewer shares outstanding.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: consensus still leans “Buy,” but valuation debates are heating up

The consensus view

According to Investing.com’s analyst snapshot:

• 18 analysts tracked
• Consensus rating: “Buy” (with 12 Buy and 6 Hold)
• Average 12‑month price target: ~417.8p
• Range of targets: roughly ~323p (low) to ~473p (high) ^[22]

Notable recent broker moves

• UBS: downgraded Glencore from Buy to Neutral, while raising its price target to £4.25 (425p), citing valuation concerns after the rally and arguing Glencore’s copper leverage is less direct than some investors assume. ^[23]
• Other firms listed on the Investing.com compilation show several Buy stances and targets in the mid‑400p range, including Barclays (Buy), Jefferies (Buy), and Citi (Buy), while JPMorgan is shown as Hold (per the same compilation). ^[24]

The interesting subtext: the debate isn’t “is copper bullish?” It’s “what’s the cleanest way to own that theme?” UBS’s framing suggests some strategists prefer pure‑play copper miners over diversified miners/traders when the market is paying up for copper exposure. ^[25]

The 2026 catalyst calendar: dates that can move GLEN quickly

Glencore published a 2026 corporate calendar that effectively puts “known volatility points” on the map. Key dates include:

• 29 January 2026: Production Report (12 months ended 31 Dec 2025) + Resources & Reserves report
• 18 February 2026: Preliminary Annual Results 2025
• 30 April 2026: Q1 Production Report
• 28 May 2026: AGM ^[26]

For many investors, the January production report is the first big checkpoint: it will help validate whether the “stronger second half” production narratives and guidance ranges are translating into real delivered tonnage.

What could drive Glencore stock next

Glencore is one of those companies where the share price can feel like it’s being steered by a committee of invisible forces. But heading into 2026, a few drivers look especially “load-bearing”:

1) Copper price direction (and deficit credibility)
If copper remains near cycle highs, Glencore benefits—but the market will still discount execution risk at assets like Collahuasi. ^[27]

2) Proof points on copper volume recovery
The bull case gets cleaner if 2026 looks like a temporary dip that reliably rebounds into 2027–2028 targets. ^[28]

3) Congo cobalt rulebook clarity
As quotas restart, the key question is whether process friction becomes “normal admin” or “persistent disruption.” ^[29]

4) Capital returns vs. reinvestment
Buybacks support the stock—but large future copper growth projects are capital hungry. Markets will watch how Glencore balances shareholder returns with risk‑managed growth and partnerships. ^[30]

5) Operational and labor stability
Australia wage disputes and energy‑intensive asset economics (South Africa) are reminders that mining isn’t only geology—it’s also politics, power prices, and people. ^[31]

Bottom line

As of 13 December 2025, Glencore plc stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

• The macro tape (copper strength, electrification, AI infrastructure demand) is supportive. ^[32]
• The company narrative is increasingly copper‑centric over the long haul—targeting 1 million tonnes by 2028 and 1.6 million by 2035. ^[33]
• The near‑term reality is messier: trimmed 2026 copper guidance, complex operating jurisdictions, and valuation debates that triggered at least one high‑profile downgrade. ^[34]

In other words, Glencore is doing what it always does: offering investors a bundle of upside themes wrapped in execution risk—like a gift box filled with copper wire and geopolitical paperwork.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.glencore.com, 6. www.glencore.com, 7. www.glencore.com, 8. www.fastmarkets.com, 9. www.fastmarkets.com, 10. www.argusmedia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.glencore.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.couriermail.com.au, 21. markets.ft.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.glencore.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.fastmarkets.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. markets.ft.com, 31. www.couriermail.com.au, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.glencore.com, 34. www.fastmarkets.com

From a price perspective, early next week’s upside focus remains unchanged. Initial resistance sits at Friday’s peak of $4353.56, followed by the record high at $4381.44. A clean push through that zone would keep the breakout structure intact.

On the downside, the nearest support remains the Fibonacci level at $4192.36. The market spent nearly two weeks straddling this price before bullish Federal Reserve news triggered the latest upside extension. Below that, additional support comes in at the 50% level at $4133.95, with the major 50-day moving average at $4114.24 acting as deeper support if selling accelerates.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Supports Gold but Tone Turns Cautious

Gold’s broader bid this week followed the Federal Reserve’s third quarter-point rate cut of the year. While the move was widely expected, policymakers signaled caution on delivering additional cuts until more data confirms easing inflation and labor market weakness.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reinforced that message on Friday, saying he was uncomfortable front-loading rate cuts and suggesting officials may have acted too quickly. Even so, investors are still pricing in two rate cuts next year, with next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report shaping near-term expectations.

Treasury Yields Rebound as Dollar Finds a Floor

Pressure on gold late Friday also came from a rebound in Treasury yields. The 10-year yield jumped back to 4.188% after sliding for two sessions, while the 30-year climbed to 4.852%. Rising yields reduced demand for non-yielding assets into the close.

The U.S. dollar also firmed modestly, with the dollar index ticking up to 98.44 after hitting a two-month low earlier in the week. Despite Friday’s bounce, the index remains on track for a third straight weekly decline and is down more than 9% for the year, keeping longer-term support under gold prices.

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Updated: Saturday, December 13, 2025 (prices reflect the latest available market closes and published data through Friday, Dec. 12)

Natural gas markets just delivered a reminder of how fast sentiment can flip in winter. After a cold-driven surge to multi-year highs earlier this month, U.S. natural gas futures reversed sharply this week as weather models turned milder, production stayed near record levels, and storage—while tightening—remained comfortable for mid-December.

The result: a steep weekly selloff in U.S. prices, while Europe’s TTF benchmark hovered near 19–20 month lows on robust supply and stronger wind outlooks, and Asian LNG spot markers eased toward multi-month lows amid ample cargo availability and soft weather-driven demand.  ^[1]

Below is a detailed recap of this week’s biggest drivers, plus a week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19) focused on weather risk, LNG flows, storage reports, and the key catalysts that could jolt prices back in either direction.

Natural gas prices this week: the numbers traders are reacting to

United States: Henry Hub / NYMEX

• NYMEX January futures settled Friday at $4.113 per mmBtu, down 11.8 cents (–2.8%) on the day and down about 22% on the week, after touching the lowest intraday level since Oct. 31.  ^[2]
• The selloff followed Thursday’s sharp drop, when January futures fell nearly 8% to $4.231, the biggest daily percentage decline since March 2025.  ^[3]
• On the cash side, the EIA’s weekly market update showed Henry Hub spot sliding from $5.20 (Dec. 5) to $4.61 (Dec. 10)—a visible retreat as forecasts warmed after the early-December cold snap.  ^[4]

Europe: Dutch TTF

• The Dutch TTF front-month traded around €26.76–€27.33 per MWh during the week—levels not seen since April 2024—as milder forecasts and strong supply weighed on the market.  ^[5]

Asia: JKM LNG

• The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) was indicated around $10.7–$10.8 per mmBtu, with Reuters noting Asian spot LNG at a ~20-month low amid ample supplies and mild weather.  ^[6]

Why U.S. natural gas fell hard this week: weather flipped, and fundamentals gave bears cover

The clearest driver was meteorology—and the market’s reflexive repricing of heating demand.

Reuters reported that forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week helped push U.S. natural gas futures to a more-than-one-month low on Friday, even though storage withdrawals just printed far above normal.  ^[7]

At the same time, supply stayed heavy:

• LSEG estimated Lower-48 output around 109.7 Bcf/d so far in December, essentially matching record territory set in November.  ^[8]
• Strong output has helped keep inventories about 3% above normal for this time of year, muting the urgency that usually follows an early-winter cold shock.  ^[9]

Market psychology mattered, too. After prices spiked to a 35‑month high on Dec. 5, warmer revisions encouraged rapid profit-taking and short-term traders “jumping ship,” in the words of one analyst quoted by Reuters.  ^[10]

Barron’s also highlighted the “rollercoaster” dynamic: when the forecast warms, prices can fall quickly even if longer-term demand (LNG exports, winter heating, power burn) remains strong.  ^[11]

The storage report that should have been bullish—but wasn’t

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 177 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 5—roughly double the five-year average draw for the same week.  ^[12]

Key inventory context:

• Working gas in storage: 3,746 Bcf
• About 3% above the five-year average, but slightly below last year at this time.  ^[13]

Several analysts noted the unusual setup: a “big” withdrawal would normally spark a rally, but the market stayed focused on the mid-December warmth signal, effectively postponing bullish enthusiasm until the models show another meaningful cold risk.  ^[14]

LNG is still the swing factor—and it’s tightening the U.S. market even when prices fall

Even after this week’s price retreat, the U.S. is exporting huge volumes of gas via LNG, which continues to reshape domestic balances.

Reuters said average feedgas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to about 18.8 Bcf/d so far this month, near record levels.  ^[15]

That export pull is the backdrop for the broader 2025 story:

• U.S. LNG exports hit a record 10.9 million metric tonnes in November, with Europe taking about 70% of cargoes, according to Reuters.  ^[16]
• Operational headlines also mattered this month: Freeport LNG worked through a short disruption and appeared to return capacity as feedgas receipts recovered, per Reuters.  ^[17]

Margin squeeze: when U.S. gas rises but Europe/Asia fall

A key theme in recent days has been compression of the price spread between Henry Hub and Europe’s TTF.

Reuters reported that rising U.S. gas prices paired with softer Europe/Asia benchmarks narrowed the arbitrage that funds LNG exports, raising the possibility exports could eventually be curtailed if margins become too thin—though not necessarily in the near term.  ^[18]

This matters for week-ahead trading because it ties together three moving pieces:

1. Henry Hub weather-driven demand
2. LNG plant feedgas/uptime
3. TTF and JKM pricing (global pull)

Europe: TTF stays low, but storage is materially tighter than last year

European natural gas prices remained subdued this week even as storage drew down—because supply has stayed strong(Norwegian pipeline flows + LNG sendout), and weather/wind forecasts reduced near-term heating and gas-for-power needs.

Reuters noted TTF touching a fresh 19‑month low midweek (around €26.76/MWh) with milder temperature runs and solid supply; LNG sendout was described as high, and Norwegian flows were reported above 340 mcm/day in one update.  ^[19]

The important difference vs. 2023–2024: storage

As of 12/12/2025 (6AM CEST), Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed:

• EU storage ~70.92% full (about 809.86 TWh stored)  ^[20]

A Reuters-cited market update published Saturday reported EU storage around 71.29%, versus 80.89% at the same time last year—an important structural tightening even if prices are currently calm.  ^[21]

A market setup that can stay calm—until it can’t

ING’s latest analysis argues Europe’s gas market is “more comfortable” near term due to a wave of LNG supply and relaxed storage rules, but lower storage makes Europe more vulnerable to cold spells or supply shocks, especially given speculative positioning in TTF (risk of a short-covering rally).  ^[22]

Asia: LNG benchmarks ease as supplies stay ample; China demand signals remain mixed

Asian LNG pricing softened alongside Europe, with Reuters noting spot LNG slipping to a ~20‑month low on ample supply and mild weather—conditions that tend to discourage urgent buying, but can also tempt price-sensitive importersback into the spot market.  ^[23]

On pricing, the JKM futures proxy showed levels around $10.70/mmBtu into Friday’s close.  ^[24]

On demand, Reuters’ recent reporting has emphasized:

• High spot LNG prices in 2025 restrained China’s spot buying and could push China behind Japan in annual LNG imports, though winter can still pull cargoes when cold snaps hit.  ^[25]

Forecasts: what the EIA is now projecting for prices, storage, and 2026 fundamentals

The EIA’s December Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9) lifted its winter view after the early-December cold snap.

Key points from the EIA outlook:

• Henry Hub spot price forecast to average about $4.30/mmBtu this winter heating season (Nov–Mar), 22% higher than last winter.  ^[26]
• EIA expects December to run ~8% more heating degree days than the 10-year average, driving higher space-heating demand.  ^[27]
• Despite stronger winter pricing, EIA expects rising production to help moderate prices next year, with U.S. dry gas production forecast around 109 Bcf/d in 2026.  ^[28]
• EIA projects U.S. LNG exports averaging 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026—a structural support for demand even in warmer weeks.  ^[29]

Week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19, 2025): the catalysts most likely to move natural gas prices

Here are the factors most likely to decide whether the market extends this week’s selloff or snaps back.

1) Weather model risk: warmth is priced in—so the asymmetry flips

By Friday, LSEG projected U.S. demand (including exports) falling sharply next week versus this week—one reason traders sold aggressively.  ^[30]

The market implication is straightforward:

• If forecasts stay mild, it’s difficult for bulls to regain control quickly.
• If the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks shift colder (or HDDs rise), the market can rebound fast—because so much selling has already occurred and winter volatility remains high.  ^[31]

2) Next U.S. storage report: Thursday, Dec. 18

The next EIA storage report is scheduled for Dec. 18 under the regular release cadence.  ^[32]

Also worth noting for planning around year-end: EIA’s schedule shows holiday shifts later this month (e.g., Dec. 24 and Dec. 31 releases moved to Wednesday at noon).  ^[33]

Why it matters:

• Another oversized withdrawal could support prices only if weather risk is not collapsing at the same time.
• A smaller withdrawal (or any sign of demand softness) could reinforce the “storage is comfortable” narrative.

3) LNG feedgas and outage headlines

With feedgas near record levels, any unexpected LNG disruption (or restart) can quickly move balances—especially during winter. Recent attention has focused on facility uptime (including Freeport) and the steady expansion of export capability.  ^[34]

4) Europe’s wind and temperature pattern (and what it does to gas-for-power)

European gas prices have been highly sensitive to wind output forecasts this season. Reuters coverage this week pointed to wind-driven demand swings supporting prices at times even while the broader market stayed weak.  ^[35]

5) Storage tightness in Europe: a slow-burn bullish factor

Even if TTF is quiet now, EU inventories are notably below last year’s level for mid-December—meaning a late-December cold spell can matter more than traders expect today.  ^[36]

The bottom line for natural gas prices heading into next week

This week was dominated by a classic winter reversal: a cold-driven spike followed by a rapid selloff once warmer forecasts appeared, amplified by near-record U.S. production and still-adequate storage.  ^[37]

For the week ahead, the market is essentially trading one question:

Do forecasts stay mild long enough to keep demand sliding, or do weather models reintroduce cold risk that forces a rebound?  ^[38]

As always in December, the “correct” answer can change in a single model run—which is why natural gas volatility tends to stay elevated even when prices are falling.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice.

References

1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.gie.eu, 21. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 22. think.ing.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.eia.gov, 27. www.eia.gov, 28. www.eia.gov, 29. www.eia.gov, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. ir.eia.gov, 34. www.tradingview.com, 35. www.tradingview.com, 36. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 37. www.tradingview.com, 38. www.tradingview.com

Next Upside Objectives

With the initial measured move now recognized, attention shifts to the second-phase target: a 127.2% projection of the current leg pointing to $4,454. However, the standing record high at $4,381 must first be decisively cleared before that longer extension becomes realistic.

Strong Weekly Structure

Despite the intraday pullback, gold remains set to finish the week in the top third of its range and deliver the highest weekly close in history. A daily close above last week’s high of $4,264 will confirm a weekly breakout and trend continuation, marking the third consecutive week of higher weekly highs and lows while also securing the third straight weekly close above the two top channel lines that failed to sustain October’s initial breakouts.

Dynamic Support Levels

The two most significant dynamic support areas lie at the 10-day average, currently $4,225, and the 20-day average at $4,170. Although gold has progressed steadily higher since October’s low, momentum has remained largely muted—now facing its most important test yet as it attempts a convincing breakout into new record territory and signals unambiguous bull trend continuation.

Outlook

Gold has checked the $4,353–$4,356 measured box and produced the strongest weekly close ever, but immediate selling off the high warns of potential near-term consolidation or correction. Hold the 10-day and 20-day averages on any weakness and clear $4,381 to resume the assault toward $4,454; failure to defend those averages risks deeper profit-taking while the larger uptrend stays intact.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.