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Copper price failed to confirm its stability above$5.5100 level, after facing new resistance near $5.6200 level, which forces it to end the bullish attempts and return to fluctuate near $5.5100 again.

The stability below the current resistance makes us wait for gathering the negative momentum, to begin forming strong bearish waves, to reach $5.2700 to attempt to press on $4.9500 barrier.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.6200

Trend forecast: Bearish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market entered Sunday (April 5th) with a cautious sentiment. After a sharp decrease of 800 – 1,000 VND/kg in the last trading session of the week, the purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is currently anchored at an average of 89,200 VND/kg.

Detailed purchase prices in key localities:

Dak Nong (old): Recorded price of 89,300 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both maintain a trading level of 89. 200 VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Anchored at the lowest level in the region at 88,700 VND/kg.

Compared to the peak of 96,600 VND/kg set on March 7, the current coffee price has evaporated by about 7,400 VND/kg. This decrease has swept away all the gains of the market throughout the past month.

World coffee prices

At the end of the trading week, red covered both London and New York exchanges as hedge funds aggressively liquidated positions.

London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures closed at 3,448 USD/ton, after a sharp decrease of 73 USD (-2.07%). Abundant export pressure from Vietnam (in the first 2 months of the year, an increase of 14% to 360,000 tons) along with forecasts that next crop output will increase by 6% have put negative pressure on this exchange. The decline still occurred even though Robusta inventory on the ICE floor hit a 3.5-month low of 4,993 lots.

New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures stopped at 295.40 cents/lb, down 2.40 cents (-0.81%). The upward momentum of the USD index ($DXY) and ICE-Arabica inventories hitting a 6-month high (585.621 bags) continued to be major draggers on Arabica prices.

Market outlook

The coffee market is under double pressure from macro forecasts about Brazil’s upcoming record crop. Marex Group Plc has just raised its forecast for Brazil’s production for the 2026/27 crop year to a record level of 75.9 million bags (up 15.5% y/y), higher than the forecasts of StoneX (75.3 million bags) and Sucafina (75.4 million bags). This long-term oversupply sentiment is overshadowing concerns about the current drought in the Minas Gerais region (rainfall only reached 47% of the historical average).

However, bottlenecks from the continued closure of themuz Strait are still quietly supporting prices by pushing up transportation, insurance and fuel costs. In addition, Brazilian farmers’ restrictions on sales during the price drop could trigger short-term technical recovery as the market reopens next week.

It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, domestic coffee prices will continue to be in a bottom-fishing state and accumulate around 88,000 – 8,950 VND/kg.

Real prices in localities may vary depending on quality and purchasing area.

The WTI crude oil price will be in the spotlight this week as the US war against Iran escalates. It ended the week at $112.08, up by over 104% from its lowest level this year. Futures on Hyperliquid quoted the price at $112.15, with its open interest rising to $575 million.

WTI crude oil in focus as Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran nears 

Crude oil prices continued rising last week after Trump’s speech to calm down the market backfired. In a statement, the president said that the war would wrap up soon, while maintaining that the US would hit Iran hard, taking it to the “stone age.”

Trump maintained his threats against Iran during the weekend, noting that his 10-day deadline was nearing. This deadline will happen on Monday evening, which will be early morning in Iran. 

He has pledged to bomb Iran’s critical infrastructure, including bridges, power infrastructure, and desalination plants. A Reuters report said that Israel was prepared to do the bombing and was just waiting for a go-ahead from Washington.

Iran, on the other hand, has pledged to cause havoc in the Middle East by blowing up critical infrastructure in key countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Israel. It may also hit energy sources in the region, a move that will lead to higher crude oil prices.

Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only a handful of ships to cooperating countries like India and Pakistan. It is charging a fee, which it insists must be paid in Chinese yuan.

At the same time, there is a likelihood that Iran and its partners will block oil shipping in the Red Sea, which accounts for about 12% of global supply.

Therefore, all these factors mean that oil prices may keep rising in the foreseeable future, with some analysts predicting that the WTI benchmark will keep soaring. A Polymarket poll places the odds that it will jump to $120 in April at 76% and $150 at 21%. 

On the other hand, a Kalshi poll estimates that WTI will surge to $150 by the end of the year. Such a jump would push it to a record high and push gasoline and diesel prices higher. 

Kalshi crude oil price poll | Source: Kalshi

AAA data shows that the average gasoline price has jumped to over $4, while diesel is nearing the $6 mark. Another report by IATA shows that the average jet fuel price has jumped to $195 a barrel, up by over 103% YoY.

WTI crude oil price chart analysis 

Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView 

The three-day chart shows that the WTI crude oil price has been in a strong upward trend in the past few months, soaring from the double-bottom low of $55 to the current $112. 

This rebound happened after prices formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. It has already moved above the double-bottom’s neckline at $77.62.

WTI has soared above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have continued rising.

Therefore, the most likely WTI forecast is bullish, with the initial target being the year-to-date high of $119.54. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the 2022 high of $129.13.

Executive Summary

Ethiopia is a significant global producer of green coffee, ranking among the world’s leading nations in production volume. The period from 2020 to 2024 saw Ethiopia’s market characterized by its role as a net exporter, with key destinations including Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the United States. Export prices demonstrated a long-term modest upward trend, reaching an average of $5,370 per ton in 2024, while import prices for the smaller volume of coffee brought into the country averaged $3,876 per ton. The forecast to 2035 anticipates continued evolution in trade patterns and pricing, influenced by global demand dynamics and production trends in major supplying countries.

Market Context (2020-2024)

Globally, green coffee consumption was led by the United States, Vietnam, and Germany, which together accounted for 28% of total consumption in 2024. On the production side, Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia were the dominant players, collectively responsible for 56% of global output. Ethiopia was positioned among the next tier of producers, alongside countries such as Colombia, Uganda, Peru, Honduras, India, and the Central African Republic; this group together accounted for a further 26% of worldwide production.

Within this global landscape, Ethiopia maintained a strong export-oriented market. The country’s production consistently supplied both regional and international markets, with its coffee being a significant export commodity. The market dynamics from 2020 through 2024 were shaped by global price movements and evolving trade relationships.

Trade and Price Signals

Ethiopia’s green coffee trade was marked by a substantial export flow and a much smaller import volume. In value terms, the largest markets for Ethiopian green coffee exports worldwide were Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the United States, which together constituted 45% of total export value. Other significant destinations included South Korea, Japan, China, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, France, and Belgium, together comprising a further 35%.

Conversely, Ethiopia’s imports of green coffee were minimal in volume. The leading suppliers by value were Uganda, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates, which together accounted for 96% of total imports.

The average export price for green coffee stood at $5,370 per ton in 2024, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Over the twelve-year period leading to 2024, export prices increased at an average annual rate of 1.5%, though with noticeable fluctuations. The peak price of $5,517 per ton was reached in 2022, following a 41% increase that year. The 2024 price was 2.7% below the 2022 peak.

The average import price in 2024 was $3,876 per ton, a decrease of 7.6% against 2023. Overall, import prices showed a relatively flat trend pattern over the period, having reached a record high of $4,196 per ton in 2023 after a significant increase in 2022.

Outlook to 2035

The forecast for Ethiopia’s green coffee market to 2035 projects ongoing changes in trade flows and price structures. Global consumption patterns, led by major markets such as the United States and Germany, will continue to influence demand for Ethiopian exports. Production levels in competing nations, including Brazil and Vietnam, will remain critical factors affecting global supply and price benchmarks.

Export prices are expected to follow a trajectory influenced by global commodity cycles, quality differentiation, and market access. Import prices will likely reflect conditions in regional supply markets, particularly from neighboring Uganda. The price differential between export and import values may persist, reflecting Ethiopia’s position as a producer of distinct coffee varieties. Market diversification efforts could alter the share of exports to traditional partners, while domestic consumption and processing developments may also shape future trade dynamics.

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

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