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Brent crude is already trading above $105 and is expected to move within a $103 to $112 range on April 27, 2026, with upside risk toward $108–$112 if geopolitical fear intensifies after the security incident involving Donald Trump. However, without confirmed international escalation, gains may remain volatile rather than explosive.
Brent crude is no longer trying to break $100—it has already decisively moved past it. After closing above $105 on April 25, global oil markets are entering the new week from a position of strength, not recovery.
But just as traders were recalibrating around supply tightness and US-Iran diplomacy, a new shock hit the system. A security breach involving President Donald Trump in Washington has injected fresh uncertainty into already fragile global sentiment.
Now the key question is not whether oil can rise—but how much further it can go from an already elevated level.
Before the Trump incident, Brent crude had already:
This matters because the market was already bullish. The Trump-related shock is not creating momentum—it is adding fuel to an existing rally.
The attempted breach near a high-profile US political event has immediate psychological effects on markets.
Even though early findings suggest no foreign involvement, traders react first to risk, not confirmation.
This incident introduces:
From Brent crude fluctuations to WTI price swings, global energy markets are increasingly tied to political risk events. The attempted attack near Donald Trump has triggered fresh speculation about US stability and its ripple effect on oil demand, supply chains, and investor confidence. 👉 Understand the full geopolitical angle: Who Is Behind Attack on Trump — Iran or Lone Gunman? White House Shooting Explained
| Scenario | Price Range | Market Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Strong bullish surge | $108 – $112 | Escalating geopolitical fear or new intelligence |
| Base case (controlled rally) | $104 – $108 | Continued supply tightness with no escalation |
| Pullback risk | $100 – $103 | Iran diplomacy progress or sentiment stabilisation |
The key difference now is that Brent is defending $105, not chasing it. That turns $100 into a strong support level rather than a target.
Several powerful forces are aligning:
Existing Supply Tightness
Production constraints, shipping risks, and limited spare capacity continue to restrict supply.
Geopolitical Layering Effect
Markets are now dealing with multiple overlapping risks: Iran tensions, Russia supply dynamics, and now US political stability concerns.
Investor Positioning
With Brent already above $100, traders are more willing to bet on further upside than on a reversal.
Psychological Breakout Zone
Once above $105, the next major target becomes $110.
Despite bullish conditions, there are strong stabilising forces:
This creates a volatile consolidation pattern, not a straight-line surge.
Higher oil prices add pressure to inflation, transport costs, and consumer spending. The Trump incident may increase uncertainty but is unlikely to shift energy fundamentals unless escalation occurs.
As a major importer, China faces rising input costs. If demand remains strong while supply stays tight, Brent could climb further.
Higher Brent strengthens revenue flows, providing economic support despite sanctions pressures.
Europe remains highly exposed. Brent above $105 raises costs across manufacturing, logistics, and energy systems, potentially slowing economic recovery.
For Nigeria, Brent above $105 is positive for revenue and foreign exchange. However, volatility means gains depend on production stability and policy efficiency.
The Brent crude oil market is no longer debating direction—it is debating intensity.
Short-term outlook for April 27:
The Trump incident adds uncertainty, but the real driver remains global supply tightness.
Brent crude is forecast to trade between $103 and $112 per barrel on April 27, 2026, with the most likely range around $104 to $108. Upside pressure remains strong as oil holds above $105, but volatility is expected due to geopolitical uncertainty.
The short-term trend remains bullish but volatile. Brent is more likely to test higher levels near $108–$110 if supply concerns persist, but could pull back toward $100–$103 if diplomatic progress with Iran improves sentiment.
Brent has a strong chance of testing $110 in the near term if geopolitical risks intensify or supply disruptions worsen. However, reaching $120 would require a major escalation, such as a breakdown in US-Iran relations or a significant supply shock.
Yes. Holding above $105 confirms strong bullish momentum. This level now acts as a support zone, meaning traders are more likely to buy dips rather than sell rallies unless major bearish news emerges.
The Brent crude forecast is currently driven by:
The incident involving Donald Trump adds short-term uncertainty and volatility to the market. While no foreign link has been confirmed, such events increase risk perception, which can support higher oil prices temporarily.
Yes. Brent crude is expected to remain highly volatile due to:
This creates both trading opportunities and risks.
For short-term traders, volatility presents opportunities. For long-term investors, Brent above $100 signals a high-risk, high-reward environment, where careful entry timing and diversification are essential.
Brent could fall below $100 if:
Without these factors, prices are likely to stay elevated.
The broader outlook remains bullish with volatility, with Brent likely to trade between $100 and $112 depending on geopolitical developments and supply conditions.
BitcoinWorld
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Vulnerable Near $75 as Oil Prices Surge with Weekly Gains
The silver price forecast for XAG/USD reveals a persistent vulnerability near the $75 mark. This weakness coincides with oil prices holding onto their weekly gains. Market participants are closely watching these developments. The interplay between these two commodities creates a complex trading environment.
Several factors contribute to the current silver price forecast. The strong performance of oil prices is a primary driver. Oil’s sustained gains often signal inflationary pressures. This can lead to tighter monetary policies. Such policies typically weigh on precious metals like silver.
Additionally, the US dollar remains resilient. A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers. This reduces demand and puts downward pressure on prices. The silver price forecast reflects these dynamics.
Oil prices have maintained their weekly gains. This trend is supported by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. For silver, this creates a challenging backdrop. Higher oil prices increase production costs for silver miners. This can squeeze profit margins and affect supply.
Furthermore, oil’s rally often diverts investor attention. Capital flows toward energy commodities. This leaves silver with less speculative interest. The silver price forecast incorporates these capital flow shifts.
Technical indicators for XAG/USD show a bearish bias. The $75 level acts as a critical support zone. A break below this level could trigger further selling. Resistance is seen near $78. The silver price forecast suggests a range-bound movement.
Trading volumes have been moderate. This indicates a lack of strong directional conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 45. This suggests neutral to slightly bearish momentum. Moving averages are also pointing lower.
The broader macroeconomic environment is mixed. Interest rate expectations remain a key variable. The Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation influences both oil and silver. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.
Global growth concerns also play a role. A slowdown in manufacturing reduces industrial demand for silver. This is particularly relevant for solar panel and electronics sectors. The silver price forecast reflects these industrial demand risks.
Silver is underperforming compared to gold. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened. This suggests silver is relatively cheaper. However, it also indicates weaker investor sentiment for silver. Platinum and palladium are also facing headwinds.
| Metal | Current Price | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $75.10 | -1.2% |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $2,050 | +0.5% |
| Platinum | $920 | -0.8% |
Analysts at major financial institutions offer cautious views. One strategist notes that silver’s dual nature as both a precious and industrial metal makes it vulnerable. The current oil price strength adds to this vulnerability. Another expert highlights the importance of the $75 support level.
Market sentiment surveys show a bearish tilt. However, some traders see a buying opportunity. The silver price forecast remains uncertain in the short term. Long-term fundamentals, such as green energy demand, provide a floor.
Over the past week, several events have shaped the silver price forecast. Oil prices surged on Monday due to supply cuts. This weighed on silver from the start. Midweek, US economic data showed resilience. This strengthened the dollar and added pressure.
By Thursday, silver tested the $75 level. It held but showed no signs of recovery. Friday’s trading session saw consolidation. The weekly close near $75 confirms the bearish bias. The silver price forecast now looks to next week’s economic calendar.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support oil prices. This indirect effect harms silver. Investors seek safe havens like gold or oil itself. Silver often gets overlooked in such scenarios. The silver price forecast must account for these risk-on and risk-off shifts.
Trade policies also matter. Tariffs on industrial metals can affect silver demand. Any escalation in trade disputes would be negative. The current environment favors oil over silver.
The silver price forecast for XAG/USD remains vulnerable near $75. Oil prices holding weekly gains create a headwind. Technical and fundamental factors align bearishly. However, the $75 support level is crucial. A break below could accelerate losses. Conversely, a rebound depends on a shift in oil prices or dollar weakness. Traders should monitor these key drivers closely. The silver price forecast offers both risks and opportunities.
Q1: Why is the silver price forecast bearish near $75?
The silver price forecast is bearish due to strong oil prices, a resilient US dollar, and technical indicators showing weakness. These factors combine to keep XAG/USD vulnerable.
Q2: How do oil price weekly gains affect silver?
Oil price weekly gains affect silver by signaling inflation and diverting investor capital. Higher oil prices also increase mining costs, pressuring silver prices.
Q3: What is the key support level for XAG/USD?
The key support level for XAG/USD is $75. A break below this level could lead to further declines toward $72. This level is critical for the silver price forecast.
Q4: Should investors buy silver at current levels?
Investors should be cautious. The silver price forecast suggests near-term weakness. However, long-term demand from green energy provides a potential floor. Consult a financial advisor.
Q5: What factors could reverse the silver price forecast?
A reversal in oil prices, a weaker US dollar, or strong industrial demand data could reverse the silver price forecast. Geopolitical events could also trigger a rally.
This post Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Vulnerable Near $75 as Oil Prices Surge with Weekly Gains first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Sellers now target a decisive break below 215.00, which could open the door for deeper losses. This analysis examines the technical setup, key drivers, and potential scenarios for the cross.
GBP/JPY Rejection at 216.00: A Technical Breakdown
The GBP/JPY rejection at 216.00 marks a significant failure for the bulls. The pair attempted multiple times to clear this level but failed each time. Consequently, the momentum has shifted decisively in favor of sellers. The 216.00 level now acts as a formidable resistance zone.
Key technical indicators confirm the bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish crossover. These signals align with the price action, reinforcing the negative outlook.
Support levels below 215.00 are critical. The next major support sits at 213.50, followed by the psychological 210.00 mark. A sustained break below 215.00 would expose these lower targets. Traders should monitor the daily close for confirmation of the breakdown.
Why the 215.00 Level Matters
The 215.00 level holds both technical and psychological significance. It represents a previous breakout zone and a key Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, a break below this threshold would invalidate the bullish structure. This scenario would likely attract more selling pressure from algorithmic and discretionary traders alike.
Volume analysis adds weight to the bearish case. Trading volumes have increased during the recent decline, suggesting genuine selling interest. In contrast, the rally toward 216.00 occurred on declining volume, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers. This divergence often precedes a trend reversal.
Market Drivers Behind the GBP/JPY Price Forecast
Several fundamental factors influence the GBP/JPY outlook. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy stance remains a primary driver. Recent comments from BoJ officials hint at a potential policy normalization, which strengthens the yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) faces conflicting pressures from sticky inflation and slowing growth.
Interest rate differentials between the UK and Japan have narrowed. This shift reduces the carry trade appeal of GBP/JPY. Consequently, speculative long positions have been unwound, adding to the downward pressure. Market participants now price in a higher probability of BoJ rate hikes in 2025.
Geopolitical risks also play a role. Uncertainty surrounding global trade and economic growth has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. This risk-off sentiment typically weighs on higher-yielding currencies, including the pound. Therefore, the GBP/JPY risks deepen below 215.00 in this environment.
Expert Perspectives on the Pair
Analysts at major financial institutions have revised their GBP/JPY forecasts lower. For instance, a senior currency strategist at a London-based bank noted that the rejection at 216.00 is a clear warning sign. They emphasize that a close below 215.00 would confirm a bearish trend reversal. This view is supported by technical patterns on the daily chart.
Another expert from a Tokyo brokerage highlighted the importance of the 215.00 level as a line in the sand. They argue that the pair’s inability to hold above this level could trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline. Such cascading effects often lead to sharp, rapid moves in the forex market.
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
For traders, monitoring specific price levels is essential. The following table summarizes the critical support and resistance zones for the GBP/JPY price forecast:
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 216.00 | Resistance | Major rejection zone; breakout needed for bullish revival |
| 215.00 | Support | Psychological and technical level; break deepens risks |
| 213.50 | Support | Next key level if 215.00 fails |
| 210.00 | Support | Major psychological floor |
Additionally, traders should watch the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day MA is currently near 214.80, providing dynamic resistance. A break below the 200-day MA around 212.00 would confirm a long-term bearish shift.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook
In the short term, the GBP/JPY risks deepen below 215.00 remain elevated. The pair may attempt a pullback toward 215.50 before resuming the downtrend. However, any bounce is likely to be sold into, given the bearish momentum. The bias remains negative as long as price stays below 216.00.
Looking ahead, the long-term outlook depends on central bank policies. If the BoJ continues to normalize policy, the yen could strengthen further. Conversely, if the BoE surprises with a hawkish stance, the pound might find support. For now, the technical picture favors the bears.
Conclusion
The GBP/JPY Price Forecast warns of deepening risks after the rejection at 216.00. A break below 215.00 would confirm a bearish reversal, targeting 213.50 and potentially 210.00. Traders should monitor key levels and central bank developments closely. The current setup favors sellers, but a catalyst could shift the narrative. Stay cautious and manage risk accordingly.
FAQs
Q1: What does the rejection at 216.00 mean for GBP/JPY?
The rejection at 216.00 indicates strong selling pressure at that level. It suggests that buyers lack the momentum to push higher, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward support at 215.00 and below.
Q2: Why is the 215.00 level so important?
The 215.00 level is both a psychological support and a key technical zone. A break below it would invalidate the bullish structure and expose the pair to deeper losses, potentially accelerating the downtrend.
Q3: What are the main drivers of the GBP/JPY price forecast?
Key drivers include Bank of Japan policy expectations, Bank of England rate decisions, interest rate differentials, and geopolitical risk sentiment. A hawkish BoJ or risk-off mood typically weakens GBP/JPY.
Q4: How can traders manage risk in this environment?
Traders should use stop-loss orders below key support levels like 215.00. They should also monitor position sizes and avoid adding to losing positions. Staying informed about central bank news is crucial.
Q5: What is the next major support level if 215.00 breaks?
If 215.00 breaks, the next major support is at 213.50, followed by the psychological 210.00 level. These levels represent potential areas where buying interest may emerge.
Q6: Could GBP/JPY reverse higher from current levels?
A reversal is possible but requires a catalyst, such as a hawkish BoE surprise or a sharp risk-on move. However, the technical bias remains bearish until the pair reclaims 216.00 with conviction.
This post GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rejected at 216.00, Risks Deepen Below 215.00 – Critical Support Under Threat first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Copper price remains affected by stochastic negativity, attempting to reach below $5.9700 to increase the chances of activating the temporary bearish corrective trend, to reach $5.8900 followed by $5.8200 level, which represents a new extra support against the current trading.
Forming a strong obstacle at $6.1200 level against the bullish attempts will increase the chances of forming negative attempts, to keep waiting to reach the previously suggested stations, to monitor its behavior to confirm the suggested trend in the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.0500
Trend forecast: Bearish
is showing resilience, bouncing despite a slowdown in this morning’s Eurozone PMI survey – can it rally back to 2-month highs at 1.1830?
Markets are once again on tenterhooks awaiting new developments in the US-Iran stalemate, with neither side willing to commit to talks or escalate military actions. While fresh developments are possible, even likely, heading into the weekend, it’s clear that general interest in the war is waning:
Source: Google Trends
Against that backdrop, traders are keeping at least one eye on economic data, which is painting a mixed picture of the fallout from the conflict. While today’s UK PMI surveys were generally better than expected, the same cannot be said for the Eurozone, where came in at 47.4, below the 49.8 reading expected. Even after a decent 52.2 reading in , the for the Eurozone remained in contractionary territory at 48.6.
As some readers may know, PMI surveys are among the most timely readings on current economic conditions, and today’s readings suggest that the Eurozone economy is stagnating at best as it navigates rising input price inflation, a development that could also push the ECB to raise interest rates later this year.
Source: Tradingview, StoneX
Despite the subdued PMI print, the euro is holding up relatively well against the world’s reserve currency. As the 4-hour chart below shows, the world’s most widely-traded currency pair is seeing a small bounce today after testing its 100-period (400-hour) MA.
More broadly, EUR/USD is carving out a falling wedge pattern over the past week, which is generally seen as a bullish pattern despite the name. A similar pattern on the 14-period RSI can be monitored for a potential leading sign of a bullish resumption.
A breakout above the top trend line would increase the odds of a continuation back toward 2-month highs near 1.1830 as we head into next week, though a break below the 400-hour MA would call the pattern into question.
The Brent crude oil price today April 24, 2026 is trading near $106.01 per barrel, up $2.34 from yesterday and almost 59% higher than a year ago. Prices remain elevated because of Middle East supply risk, tight shipping routes, and global uncertainty, although renewed Iran diplomacy has slowed a breakout above $110.
The Brent crude oil price today April 24, 2026 is no longer just an energy market story. It has become a direct signal for inflation, stock market sentiment, central bank policy, shipping costs, and economic growth across the world’s largest economies.
Brent crude pushed above the $106 level after another volatile week in which geopolitical fears and supply disruption concerns drove a powerful rally. Yet even with prices elevated, hopes of renewed diplomacy between the United States and Iran have prevented a full breakout toward $110 and beyond.
For governments, investors, businesses, and consumers, the key question now is urgent: Will Brent crude continue climbing, or is this rally about to cool?
The answer could shape markets from New York to Shanghai, Moscow to Frankfurt.
| Metric | Value | Market Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Current Brent Price | $106.01 | Strong bullish pricing |
| Yesterday Price | $103.67 | +2.25% daily gain |
| One Month Ago | $111.49 | Below recent peak |
| One Year Ago | $66.64 | +59.07% yearly surge |
| Weekly Trend | Strong Gain | Risk premium elevated |
| Resistance Zone | $108 to $110 | Key breakout level |
| Support Zone | $102 to $103 | Near-term floor |
Three powerful themes are driving the market:
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. Any disruption there immediately threatens global supply flows.
Even before geopolitical stress, oil markets were relatively tight, meaning any disruption creates an outsized price reaction.
Funds and traders often move quickly into oil during geopolitical crises, increasing volatility.
Despite strong bullish momentum, Brent has not decisively crossed $110 because:
This means fear is supporting prices, but uncertainty is capping them.
For the United States, Brent above $100 increases pressure on gasoline, diesel, airline fuel, and freight costs.
This can:
Higher oil often benefits U.S. energy stocks, but broader equities may struggle if inflation returns.
China is one of the world’s largest crude importers. Higher Brent prices create serious challenges:
If oil stays elevated, China’s economic rebound could lose momentum.
For Russia, stronger global oil prices can create a revenue windfall despite sanctions pressure.
Higher Brent may:
This makes oil price spikes economically significant for Moscow.
Europe remains highly sensitive to energy shocks.
Brent above $106 may cause:
Germany, Italy, France, and broader EU economies remain exposed to imported energy volatility.
Many emerging economies suffer when oil rises because:
This can tighten financial conditions globally.
Nigeria may benefit from stronger crude prices through export earnings and FX inflows. However, domestic consumers are more focused on pump prices and inflation.
For Nigeria-specific impact, readers are also monitoring the fuel price today in Nigeria, where global crude moves can eventually shape transport and living costs.
| Benchmark | Price | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $106.01 | Global benchmark |
| WTI Crude | Mid $90s range | U.S. benchmark |
| Spread | Around $10+ | Global supply stress premium |
| Scenario | Trigger | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Hormuz disruption worsens | $110 to $115 |
| Neutral | Talks continue | $103 to $108 |
| Bearish | Supply fears fade | $98 to $102 |
The Brent crude oil price today April 24, 2026 is more than a commodity headline. It is a global economic warning signal.
For the United States, it may revive inflation concerns. For China, it raises factory costs. For Russia, it can boost revenues. For Europe, it threatens fragile energy stability.
If diplomacy holds, prices may stabilize. If tensions deepen, the next rally could reshape markets worldwide.
Brent crude oil price is rising today because global traders are pricing in supply disruption risks, tighter shipping flows, and continued geopolitical uncertainty around major export routes. When markets fear shortages, oil prices often jump quickly.
Brent crude could test $110 if supply tensions escalate further, inventories tighten, or shipping disruptions worsen. However, if diplomacy improves and exports normalize, prices may pull back below current levels.
Oil is back above $100 due to a mix of geopolitical shocks, restricted supply, stronger strategic buying, and fears that major producers cannot quickly replace lost barrels. Markets are also reacting to global inflation concerns.
When Brent crude rises, petrol and diesel prices often increase because crude oil is a major input cost for refined fuels. Consumers may feel the impact through higher transport fares, logistics costs, and pump prices.
For the United States, Brent above $100 can push gasoline prices higher, increase inflation pressure, weigh on consumer spending, and complicate Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Energy companies may benefit while households face rising costs.
China is one of the world’s largest oil importers, so higher crude prices can raise factory costs, pressure manufacturing margins, and slow growth. It may also increase shipping and export costs globally.
Brent is considered the leading global benchmark because it prices much of the internationally traded crude market. WTI mainly reflects North American supply dynamics, while Brent often better captures world energy sentiment.
Higher oil prices can boost Russia’s export revenues and fiscal strength, especially if it maintains strong export volumes. However, sanctions, trade restrictions, and logistics costs can reduce some of that benefit.
Europe may face higher fuel bills, transport costs, inflation pressure, and slower industrial recovery when oil remains elevated. Energy intensive sectors such as chemicals, aviation, and manufacturing are often most exposed.
Oil prices could drop if peace talks succeed, supply routes reopen fully, recession fears rise, or major producers sharply increase output. Weak demand data can also trigger fast corrections.
Oil stocks can benefit when crude prices rise, but risks remain high because energy markets are volatile. Investors usually watch production costs, dividends, geopolitical developments, and balance sheet strength before investing.
If supply fears persist, Brent may remain supported above $100 and challenge $108 to $110. If tensions cool, the market could retreat toward $98 to $102 support zones.
USD/JPY continues to consolidate just below a key resistance zone after a strong advance, with price action reflecting a period of compression near recent highs. The pause in momentum suggests a potential buildup for a larger move, with the broader uptrend still intact for now. The focus shifts to a breakout of this range, which could provide clearer direction for the next phase of price action. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was, “attempting to secure a breakout of the yearly opening-range highs, and the focus is on this push towards 160. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a break of the monthly highs needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/JPY broke higher later that week with price extending more than 5.3% off the March lows to briefly register an intraday high at 160.46 before reversing into the close of the month.
Since then, USD/JPY has been stuck in a range just below confluent resistance at 160.21/74- a region defined by the April 2024 swing high and he 2024 high-week reversal close (HWC). A consolidation is taking shape just below the April opening-range intact heading into next week. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here.
Weekly support rests with the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 157.70. Yearly open support rests just lower at 154.67 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2026 low-week close (LWC) and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 154.79-155.29. Note that basic channel support converges on this level into the monthly cross and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 2024 swing high at 161.95 and the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance near 163.33– look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/JPY is consolidating just below confluent resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the April range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 157.70 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 160.74 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Aside from the barrage of ongoing war headlines, we get the release of rate decisions from the BoJ and the Fed next week with key inflation data on tap Thursday. Stay nimble into this pending breakout and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
— Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
There can still be a pullback to test higher prior support indicators as resistance before the anticipated decline continues and likely picks up speed. The 50-day moving average marks a key dynamic resistance zone since it was confirmed as resistance at the top of the wedge last Friday. Currently, the 50-day average is at $4,862, a little below the top of the wedge consolidation pattern and the lower swing high at $4,890. Based on the structure, a minor lower swing high at $4,833, a five-day high, provides another level of interest. If it exceeded to the upside, the bearish potential of the wedge becomes suspect.
Although bearish indications are seen in the daily chart, an inside week will complete this week on the weekly chart, setting it up for a bearish continuation signal below this week’s low of $4,658. However, since the prior week’s low of $4,640 is close by, that level should provide a more reliable bearish signal if it triggers. This proximity of lows creates a layered support zone where a clean break would strengthen downside conviction rather than produce a marginal signal.
An initial downside target is indicated in a zone near $4,381, which is validated as both support and resistance over the past, with a trend high in October and a swing low from January. Further down is the significant 200-day moving average at $4,252. Taken together, these levels define a broader bearish pathway that remains intact unless gold can reclaim and hold above key resistance levels noted above.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
GBP/USD advances on Friday as improved risk appetite weighed on the US Dollar’s safety appeal amid growing speculation that a second round of talks between the US and Iran looms. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon added to traders’ optimism.
The GBP/USD trades at 1.3498, up by 0.24% after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3453, amid renewed hopes for an end to the conflict between the US and Iran. Read more…
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales, driven largely by fuel purchases, have supported the Pound (GBP), though broader UK data still point to a softer growth outlook. Short-term GBP/USD technicals are described as neutral to bullish, with a developing base pattern and clearly defined support and upside levels that could guide near-term price action.
“UK Retail Sales rose a stronger than expected 0.7% in March, largely reflecting purchases of fuel as prices rose in response to conflict in the Middle East.” Read more…
The GBP/USD pair recovers its early losses and turns positive around 1.3490 during the European trading session on Friday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects after a three-day winning streak. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.70.
The US Dollar comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) markets opening; however, the broader outlook of the currency remains firm as oil prices remain higher amid fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. Read more…

The euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see the 50-day EMA offering support.
The market is of course going to be watching the 50-day EMA as a floor and so far, it does look like it’s trying to hold up.
It is worth noting that the 10-year yield in the United States rose pretty significantly early during the session only to give that back up. Ultimately when I look at the EUR/USD chart, if we break down below the 50-day EMA then we could drop down to the 200-day EMA. To the upside of the 1.18 level is a barrier that I think is thick. It extends all the way to the 1.1850 level.
With this, I think you have a situation where traders are looking at this through the interest rate differential which favors the United States, but you should also keep in mind that traders are going to be looking at this through the prism of energy in the European Union as well.
After all, if there’s a major disruption in energy coming out of the Middle East to the European Union that’s going to have a massive influence on how their economies perform. So really at this point I think a little of a bounce makes a certain amount of sense, but there is a lot of resistance above and I think that will continue to be a bit of a struggle to get beyond there.
Really the only thing that I could see happening is if we see an end to the conflict in the Middle East. If we don’t, then you can look at this from a longer-term standpoint between the 1.14 and the 1.1850 level, but really, I think you’ve got a situation where you’re looking at this through the eyes of a range that’s getting close to the middle, so things might get choppy.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.