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Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Tests Upper Ranges

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has pushed to 1.3535, as foreign exchange analysts at ING and MUFG argue that confidence in US policymaking has not fully recovered, keeping the risk of renewed “Sell America” flows alive despite calmer headlines.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Tight Ranges

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has been held in relatively narrow ranges and trading around 1.3440 after again finding support near 1.34 with Pound support from a boost to risk appetite offset by a firmer dollar.

According to UoB; “we continue to expect range-trading today, most likely between 1.3400 and 1.3460.”

Given major global pressure points, it is dangerous to assume that narrow ranges will prevail.

According to ING; “Some downside risks for the dollar persist: more volatility in JGBs spilling into Treasuries, scrutiny on upcoming US tech earnings, reignition in geopolitical/tariff risk. But the macro picture should favour a bit more dollar strength in the coming days, in our view.”

Risk appetite secured an initial boost on Wednesday following President Trump’s comments that he would not use force to secure a deal on Greenland.

There was a further boost to confidence after the European close after Trump stated that a deal on Greenland had been reached with NATO Secretary-General Rutte and that the threatened tariffs on eight European countries from February 1st would not go ahead.

Markets were concerned that US threats would trigger selling in US bonds and equities which would hurt the dollar. With the immediate threat easing, there was a rebound in the dollar.

Commerzbank forex strategist Volkmar Baur commented; “From a European perspective, it is too early to rejoice.”

He added; “However, the most likely outcome is still that the next wave of excitement will pass us by after a brief period of volatility and that the market will refocus on central banks and interest rate differentials.”

ING considers that attention will turn towards the Federal Reserve policy decision next week.

According to the bank; “We discussed last week how Powell’s fierce response to the criminal investigation signalled upside risks to the dollar, as he and other members could have turned more hawkish in a meeting without any rate change to reinforce the independence message.”

The Supreme Court also held a hearing on the US Administration case to dismiss Fed Governor Cook. The initial signs are that the court is not mindful to back Trump due to the threat to Fed independence.

MUFG still sees dollar risks, but added; “The loss of confidence in US policymaking is likely to remain a headwind for the US dollar as we have seen at the start of this year. However, the risk of a sharper US dollar sell-off has diminished after President Trump’s quick climb down over Greenland, and early indications from the Supreme Court overnight that they are likely to rule against President Trump’s decision to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.”

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Created on January 23, 2026

• The Euro has rallied slightly on Thursday as the market continues to look to test the top of the overall range at the moment.

The Euro has rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of consolidation just above the 50-day EMA. The question at this point in time is whether or not the US dollar will crumble, and I think there is a specific trigger price that you will more likely than not have to pay attention to.

This would be the 1.1850 level. The recent swing high and the spot on the chart that I have circled from the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision. That was when we started to get the idea that perhaps the Americans were not going to aggressively cut as everybody had anticipated.

If we can break above there, that would be a very strong sign, but as things stand right now, this is more or less a market that is stuck in a range between 1.14 and 1.1850. I do think that you are looking for signs of exhaustion to start fading again.

Market Range and Sentiment

But if we get that move above 1.1850, then the Euro is likely to go looking to the 1.20 level after that. All things being equal, this is a market that moves very little most of the time, so the fact that it is range-bound should not be a huge surprise.

That being said, also, you could also look at this as a very well-defined range that you can play in both directions. It is worth noting that the most recent dip doesn’t seem to have been as negative as previous ones, so maybe we’re starting to lean more in the direction of the Euro. But we’ll just have to wait and see.

A lot of this will come down to US economic data, which recently has been a little softer than previously but still fairly resilient.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price reached the initial corrective target at $5.6200, to begin forming new bullish waves, taking advantage of providing bullish momentum by stochastic, the price might begin building some bullish waves, depending on forming initial main support at $5.5100 level, which increases the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9700, then achieving new all time highs by its rally towards $6.1200 and $6.2100.

While the price declines below $5.5100 and holding below it will force it to provide bearish corrective trading, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching $5.3900 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6500 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price reached the initial corrective target at $5.6200, to begin forming new bullish waves, taking advantage of providing bullish momentum by stochastic, the price might begin building some bullish waves, depending on forming initial main support at $5.5100 level, which increases the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9700, then achieving new all time highs by its rally towards $6.1200 and $6.2100.

While the price declines below $5.5100 and holding below it will force it to provide bearish corrective trading, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching $5.3900 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6500 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bullish