Created on November 10, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1520 – 1.1460 – 1.1390
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1610 – 1.1690 – 1.1770

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

The ongoing US government shutdown and the divergent market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve continue to heavily influence the trajectory of the US Dollar against other major currencies, as well as the rest of the global financial markets. The US government shutdown is preventing the release of US jobs figures, which are the most important economic data affecting market expectations for the future of Federal Reserve policy. In addition to that report, US inflation readings are due to be announced this week.

Prior to that, the EUR/USD pair attempted to recover from its three-month lows when it plunged to the 1.1468 support level last week, but the cautious upward rebound gains did not exceed the 1.1592 resistance level before closing the week stabilized around the 1.1560 level.

Will the EUR/USD pair fall to the 1.1400 support level?

According to Forex currency trading experts’ forecasts, the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair was confirmed by its stabilization below the 1.1600 support. As I mentioned before, this opens the door for further downward pressure on the currency pair, which has happened. The continuation of the bearish outlook does not rule out a drop to the 1.1400 support level, especially since the technical indicators, which have turned bearish, have room to move downward before reaching the oversold zone. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 44, below the neutral line, and at the same time, the MACD indicator lines are steadily leaning downward.

Conversely, on the same timeframe, the daily chart indicates a strong bullish scenario for the EUR/USD pair, requiring a move towards the psychological resistance level of 1.1800. Today’s EUR/USD trading is not focused on any major US economic releases; the only anticipated indicator is the Sentix Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index, due at 11:30 AM Cairo time.

Trading Tips:

The EUR/USD gains will remain vulnerable to rapid collapse until investor confidence returns to the market, which could happen with the end of the US government shutdown.

The future of US central bank policy is becoming increasingly uncertain.

The prospects for US monetary policy remained ambiguous following the recent wave of statements from Federal Reserve officials. Divisions among Fed policymakers persisted in the wake of last Wednesday’s US interest rate cut, raising doubts about their ability to agree on another cut at their anticipated meeting on December 9-10. While some officials openly supported further monetary easing, others expressed reluctance, if not opposition, to cutting US interest rates again next month.

In short, the overall tone of official statements on Thursday and earlier this week reinforced Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assertion that a December US interest rate cut is “not a given.”

John Williams, President of the New York Fed, one of Powell’s most prominent aides as Vice Chair of the policy-making FOMC, had been supportive of policy easing in recent weeks to address labor market weakness, but last Thursday he limited his comments to saying the bank must adhere to its 2% inflation target and strive for “price stability.”

Meanwhile, Austin Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who voted for rate cuts in September and October, appeared less insistent on another rate cut on Thursday, particularly given the lack of economic data from the closed federal government. He saw “stabilization” in the labor market and expressed deep concern about inflation in the absence of statistics. Meanwhile, Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who will join the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting line next year, was more vocal in her opposition to another near-term rate cut, arguing that inflation is a greater concern than the struggling labor market and emphasizing the need for monetary policy to remain “in a fairly restrictive position to achieve the right balance of our objectives.”

Overall, for the second consecutive meeting, the FOMC lowered the US interest rate by 25 basis points on October 29 to a target range of 3.75% to 4.0%. However, in an unusually split decision, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran opposed a 50-basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the decision, favoring keeping rates unchanged.

In addition to this easing move, the FOMC moved faster than many expected to halt “quantitative tightening” by the end of this month. The FOMC had cut the interest rate by the same amount on September 17 to a target range of 4.0% to 4.25%. In its revised Summary of Economic Projections, published in September, FOMC participants anticipated another 25 basis points of monetary easing at the Committee’s final meeting in 2025.

Despite 25 basis points remaining in the September “dot plot,” Powell stressed in his October 29 press conference that a rate cut on December 9-10 “is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” He noted “sharp differences in views on how to proceed in December.” He added that the FOMC has cut the federal funds rate by 150 basis points since it began easing monetary policy in September 2024, making policy now “150 basis points closer to neutral.” He added that this prompts some officials to “pause” and “wait” before easing policy further, while others wish to “move forward” with more easing.

Powell said the FOMC “will resume monetary easing at some point,” but added that it is trying to deal with a “difficult” and “complex” situation that requires “balancing” the two-sided risks—either in favor of inflation or in favor of jobs. In this climate, he said it is appropriate to be “cautious.” He added that if there is a “high degree of uncertainty” on December 10, “that might justify caution about moving.”

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Image © Adobe Images

GBP/USD rebound reflects an unwinding of oversold conditions rather than the start of a sustained uptrend, with gains likely capped near 1.3235.

The pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) reached its lowest level since April last week at 1.3010, but has since recovered to 1.3170.

The recovery is shallow and lacks the vigour that would normally be associated with a bottoming pattern, leaving us wary of a continuation of the selloff.

This is why we would characterise the current rally as a mean reversion, and not the start of a renewed push higher.

The pair looks to be recovering from the oversold conditions seen at the start of the month, the culmination of the steady selling pressure seen through the course of October.

The RSI – lower panel in the chart – had fallen below 30, which triggers caution and indicates that those oversold conditions must unwind.

Exchange rates tend to mean-revert, and we are seeing that in GBP/USD. The week ahead forecast looks for that to play out a little further, targeting a move to the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.3235.

Above: GBP/USD looks to be eyeing a return to the 21-day EMA (blue line). Note the bounce out of oversold on the RSI in lower panel.

However, while below this EMA the pair is in a downtrend and the relief could attract more sellers, ready to target new multi-month lows.

1.3010 is the new post-April low, and below here is a potential support region; the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Q1-2025 rally.

How far GBP/USD can travel will depend on Tuesday’s UK labour market data, where the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 4.9% in October from 4.8% in September, owing to rising unemployment and inactivity.

A more severe deterioration in the headline employment numbers would trigger a selloff in the pound, undermining our tactical expectation for a short-term recovery.

Also, keep an eye on the wage figures, as this is closely associated with inflation. The figure to beat is 4.6%.

Quarterly GDP is due Thursday, where the consensus looks for a 0.2% increase in Q3. The UK economy has actually been doing OK this quarter, according to the PMI surveys and retail sales data.

This means a beat on expectations can’t be ruled out. If it happens, then GBP/USD can end the week above 1.3235.

Stateside, there will be no official U.S. data owing to the government shutdown, which deprives us of a previously scheduled inflation data release.

This is one of the two marquee economic calendar events in any given month, the other being non-farm payroll data.

Nevertheless, “attention this week will turn to remarks from several Fed officials, which could provide new clues on how the central bank is balancing softening consumer confidence with a fragile labour market,” says Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade.

Above: The Fed’s Waller speaks Wednesday.

“Dovish remarks could weigh on both the dollar and yields,” he adds.

Markets see a 65% probability of a December rate cut, which signals ample scope for a repricing in either direction, based on the tone of upcoming commentary and non-official data releases.

The weekend saw some progress towards ending the record-long government shutdown, with Senate Democrats voting through a procedural measure to advance a bill to pass funding.

“It looks like we’re getting closer to the shutdown ending,” President Donald Trump said Sunday.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said over the weekend that a bipartisan budget framework is taking shape.

There’s no clear timeline for the reopening, which means the Fed’s December policy meeting will happen without official data to assess.

However, sentiment would receive a boost on a reopening of government, setting the scene for a recovery in stocks, which would weigh on the dollar.