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26 02, 2026

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Climbs after Trump Address

By |2026-02-26T02:36:11+02:00February 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


– Written by

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rose on Wednesday as the US Dollar weakened following market reaction to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3517, representing a gain of roughly 0.2% compared with the start of the session.

The US Dollar came under pressure midweek as investors assessed the implications of Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

During what became the longest speech of its kind, Trump defended his administration’s economic record and strongly promoted his trade policies. He criticised the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn his earlier IEEPA tariff framework while arguing that the newly introduced global tariff structure could ultimately prove more effective.

The president also floated the idea that tariff revenues might one day offset income taxes, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets already grappling with shifting US trade policy.

Geopolitical concerns also lingered after Trump again referenced the possibility of military action against Iran, although he emphasised a diplomatic solution remained his preferred outcome.

The Pound traded with relative stability as investors adjusted their expectations for the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision.

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Remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey a day earlier prompted markets to dial back certainty surrounding a March interest rate cut after he suggested policymakers had yet to reach a firm conclusion.

While traders still broadly anticipate monetary easing in the near term, the perception that next month’s decision is not guaranteed helped lend Sterling some underlying support.

Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Politics and US Inflation Data in Focus

Domestic political developments could inject volatility into the Pound later in the week as the Greater Manchester by-election approaches.

A disappointing outcome for Labour may reignite concerns over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership prospects, potentially weighing on investor confidence in UK assets.

At the same time, the US Dollar’s direction may hinge on the release of the latest US producer price index figures. Evidence of easing pipeline inflation could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue loosening monetary policy, which may limit demand for the ‘Greenback’.

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25 02, 2026

Bulls eye 156.90 as technical setup support gains

By |2026-02-25T22:35:15+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The USD/JPY pair finds some support near the 155.35 area on Wednesday and stalls its retracement slide from a two-week high, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 155.75 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and look to build on the upward trajectory witnessed over the past week or so.

Despite the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook, the US Dollar (USD) meets with a fresh supply as investors remain concerned about renewed turbulence over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. This, along with geopolitical risks, underpins demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen (JPY), and prompts some intraday selling around the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was apprehensive about more rate hikes in a meeting last week with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Moreover, the government nominated two reflationists to join the BoJ board, forcing investors to trim expectations about the speed of interest rate hikes. This caps gains for the JPY and offers some support to the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated rebounds from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) breakout zone and the subsequent move up favor bullish traders. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher above its signal and is now back in positive territory, suggesting improving upside momentum after a mid-month loss of traction. The Relative Strength Index around 54 stays above its midline without approaching overbought, aligning with a gradual recovery.

Immediate resistance emerges at 156.90, the recent swing high ahead of 158.40, where the latest advance stalled, and supply reasserted. A daily close above 156.90 would open the way toward 158.40, with a break there exposing the 160.00 region as the next upside objective. On the downside, initial support stands at 155.00, guarding a deeper retracement toward 153.50, where prior lows converge with the short-term consolidation base. A loss of 153.50 would weaken the bullish bias and shift focus to the 152.70 area defined by the 200-day EMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Bank of Japan FAQs

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

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25 02, 2026

Euro lacks direction following volatile action

By |2026-02-25T18:34:29+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

After fluctuating in a relatively wide range at the beginning of the week, EUR/USD edged lower on Tuesday but managed to find support. The pair was last seen trading moderatly higher on the day, at around 1.1800.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.13% -0.15% 0.38% -0.08% -0.53% -0.13% 0.02%
EUR 0.13% -0.01% 0.50% 0.06% -0.40% 0.00% 0.15%
GBP 0.15% 0.01% 0.55% 0.06% -0.39% 0.01% 0.17%
JPY -0.38% -0.50% -0.55% -0.44% -0.89% -0.50% -0.34%
CAD 0.08% -0.06% -0.06% 0.44% -0.45% -0.06% 0.10%
AUD 0.53% 0.40% 0.39% 0.89% 0.45% 0.40% 0.58%
NZD 0.13% -0.00% -0.01% 0.50% 0.06% -0.40% 0.15%
CHF -0.02% -0.15% -0.17% 0.34% -0.10% -0.58% -0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The positive shift seen in risk mood made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to preserve its strength and helped EUR/USD hold its ground. Wall Street’s main indexes recovered decisively on Tuesday after suffering large losses on Monday, as the negative impact of the uncertainty surrounding the US trade policy faded away.

In his State of the Union speech, US President Donald Trump said that there is no inflation and there is “tremendous growth,” pointing to tariffs as one of the main reasons behind the economic turnaround. Trump further added that almost all trading partners want to keep the trade deals they already made despite the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Early Wednesday, US stock index futures rise about 0.2%. Anoter day of bullish action in Wall Street could allow EUR/USD to stretch higher in the near term.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases. In the second half of the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches. The CME FedWatch Tool shows virtually no chance of a Fed rate cut in March and points to about an 85% probability of one more policy hold in April. The market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room left on the upside even if Fed policymakers reiterate a cautious approach to policy-easing. Conversely, dovish hints could weigh on the USD.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1791. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair holds below the downward-sloping 50- and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) while clinging to the 200-period SMA around 1.1792. Price action remains capped beneath the descending resistance trend line from 1.2023, which continues to limit recovery attempts after the recent bounce failed near the 1.1810 area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark, indicating weak upside momentum and aligning with a downside-tilted consolidation rather than a clear reversal higher.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1590–1.2027 advance at 1.1809, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.1860, where the cluster of declining SMAs and the descending trend line reinforce a heavier supply zone. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement at 1.1757 forms initial support just beneath current levels, with a sustained break exposing the 1.1684 area at the 78.6% retracement. As long as the pair trades below 1.1809, rallies are vulnerable to selling pressure, and a close under 1.1757 would strengthen the bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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25 02, 2026

The EURJPY reaches the target– Forecast today – 25-2-2026

By |2026-02-25T14:33:15+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBPJPY pair activated with the positivity of the main indicators, breaching 209.15 barrier, to confirm regaining the bullish trend, recording the initial target by its rally towards 210.65.

 

Despite forming extra barrier at 210.65 level, the stability of the moving average 5 below the current trading reinforces the chances of gathering extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the rise to expect targeting 211.15, to extend the trading towards 211.70, which represents the next main target in the current trading.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 210.10 and 211.70

 

Trend forecast: Bullish



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25 02, 2026

Bullish Momentum Targets 184.00 Barrier After Critical Moving Average Breakthrough

By |2026-02-25T10:31:03+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments





EUR/JPY Forecast: Bullish Momentum Targets 184.00 Barrier After Critical Moving Average Breakthrough












































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25 02, 2026

Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Reclaims 1.35 as Tariff Chaos Hits USD

By |2026-02-25T06:29:58+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


– Written by

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has regained the 1.3500 level as renewed US trade policy uncertainty weighs on the dollar following a Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariff regime.

After initial volatility triggered by weaker US GDP data and confusion over the administration’s next steps on tariffs, the greenback has struggled to maintain momentum, allowing Sterling to recover from recent lows despite lingering UK fundamental concerns.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Regain 1.35

The dollar lost ground in US trading on Friday with initial disappointment over the latest GDP data compounded by the US Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs.

Danske Bank commented; “The knee-jerk reaction following the US Supreme Court ruling was for the unusual combination of higher rates and weaker USD. The changes were however relatively modest.”

The US currency also lost ground on Monday with the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate trading just above the 1.3500 level. The first short-term resistance area is around 1.3550.

According to UoB; “While it is currently unclear whether GBP can break clearly above this level, the major resistance at 1.3605 is unlikely to come under threat. It added; “Support is at 1.3480; a breach of 1.3460 would mean that the current upward pressure has eased.”

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ING commented; “The fact that the US did not launch a military strike on Iran this weekend is probably one factor behind the dollar selling, but trade uncertainty and what it means for the US economy is another.

Danske Bank also noted the high degree of uncertainty; “Focus at the start of the week will be on the union speech by President Trump tomorrow which will be particularly interesting given the latest trade policy developments as well as the geopolitical developments surrounding Iran.”

On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Administration’s tariffs under emergency legislation (IEEPA) were unconstitutional and the policy would have to be scrapped.

Almost immediately, President Trump announced the 10% tariff rate under Section 122 and then raised this to 15%.

There is a high degree of uncertainty whether there will be refunds to importers who have been paying the tariffs. There are also important uncertainties whether these new tariffs will apply to the bilateral trade deal such as the US-UK deal.

Any overall decline in tariff levels could underpin the global economy. OCBC currency strategist Sim Moh Siong commented; “It weakens the dollar in the sense that it potentially benefits non-U.S. growth. There will, however, be concerns that the uncertainty will trigger another dip in UK business confidence.

As far as the US economy is concerned, MUFG noted; “The reduction in the overall average effective tariff rate could be viewed as a positive for the US economy as well. However, the increased level of trade policy uncertainty, at least initially, could work to offset that and hence we view the Supreme Court ruling as being mildly dollar negative.”

The bank also discussed other potential implications; “We also need to monitor closely the Trump administration’s views on the US dollar. We have assumed that ultimately some of the key members of the Trump administration want a weaker US dollar and there is a risk that the administration lean on this more explicitly given the set-back on its reciprocal tariff regime.”

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25 02, 2026

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As CB Consumer Confidence Jumps To 91.2: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By |2026-02-25T02:28:10+02:00February 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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24 02, 2026

USD/JPY, FTSE 100 Forecast: 2 Trades to Watch

By |2026-02-24T18:25:56+02:00February 24, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

USD/JPY Jumps as Japanese PM Takaichi Adopts a Stricter Stance Against BoJ Rate Hikes

has risen sharply amid a weaker yen. The yen is extending its decline after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi has taken a harder line on further rate hikes during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda.

Following the news, the Japanese currency dropped as much as 1.1% against the , underperforming its G10 peers.

Since winning a stronger mandate in the elections, Takaichi has been expected to shift towards more market-friendly policies; however, these latest reports suggest an increasing risk that she could suppress BoJ rate hikes.

Takaichi has become known for her pro-stimulus stance, favouring economic growth over rising interest rates, although she has slightly eased her stance to soothe market nerves after Japanese bond yields surged to historic levels.

Her comments come after data last week showed that Japanese cooled to 1.5%, the first time it had fallen below 2% since March 2022. The data raised doubts over the BoJ’s ability to hike rates. data is due late on Thursday and is also expected to cool below the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is edging higher against its major peers, recovering most of yesterday’s losses. The dollar’s initial weakness was driven by fiscal concerns following Trump’s announcement of 10% global trade tariffs and his threats to raise them to 15%, though that hasn’t happened yet.

There is still uncertainty for many countries about whether the terms of their originally negotiated trade deals remain valid or whether they now need to stick to the new emergency tariffs.

Looking ahead, U.S. data is due later today, along with several Fed speakers, providing further clues on the Fed’s . The last week were more hawkish than expected.

USD/JPY Forecast Technical Analysis

USD/JPY trades within a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price recently recovered from the 152.20, rising trendline support and is testing the 50 SMA and falling trendline resistance at 156.00.

Buyers will look to rise above this level to break out of the triangle and head towards 157.70, the February high. A rise above here creates a higher high and brings 160.0 the 2026 high into focus.

On the downside, support is seen at 154.50, the mid-December low. A break below the rising trendline support at 152.80 breaks out the downside of the triangle pattern, bringing 152.20 into focus.

FTSE Hovers Around Record Highs with Trade Tariffs in Focus

The is modestly lower on Wednesday as Trump’s new 10% global tariff regime came into effect, raising trade tensions and concerns over global growth.

However, it’s worth noting that the UK government said it doesn’t expect Trump’s new tariffs to impact the US-UK trade deal agreed last year.

Financial and healthcare stocks are weighing on the index with banks under pressure amid concerns that tariffs could curb economic activity.

Losses in those sectors were partly offset by a rising commodity-linked stocks amid higher crude oil and metal prices, which supported oil majors and miners.

The FTSE has been holding up better than some of its major peers, notably outperforming the US amid a lack of technology stocks on the UK index. While the lack of tech stocks had held the FTSE back in previous years, this has reversed more recently, and the absence of tech stocks is proving an advantage as worries over AI disruptions continue to affect specific areas of tech.

FTSE Forecast – Technical Analysis

The FTSE 100 has extended its run-up from the April low to a record high of 10,730. The price has eased back slightly, pulling the RSI away from overbought territory. The bullish trend remains firmly intact.

Buyers will look to extend gains above 10,730 to 10,800 and 11,000 as the next logical levels.

Support is seen at 10,450, the rising trendline support and 20 SMA. A break below here and 10,100, the February low brings 10,000, the psychological level, into focus. It would take a move below 9910 to negate the longer-term uptrend.FTSE 100-Daily Chart

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24 02, 2026

Euro bulls hesitate as markets navigate through tariff uncertainty

By |2026-02-24T14:24:00+02:00February 24, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

EUR/USD lost its traction in the second half of the day on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged after starting the week with a bullish gap. Early Tuesday, the pair continues to edge lower and trades below 1.1800.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.14% 0.07% 0.39% 0.02% -0.05% -0.05% 0.27%
EUR -0.14% -0.07% 0.24% -0.12% -0.19% -0.19% 0.13%
GBP -0.07% 0.07% 0.31% -0.05% -0.12% -0.12% 0.21%
JPY -0.39% -0.24% -0.31% -0.37% -0.43% -0.44% -0.10%
CAD -0.02% 0.12% 0.05% 0.37% -0.06% -0.07% 0.26%
AUD 0.05% 0.19% 0.12% 0.43% 0.06% -0.00% 0.33%
NZD 0.05% 0.19% 0.12% 0.44% 0.07% 0.00% 0.33%
CHF -0.27% -0.13% -0.21% 0.10% -0.26% -0.33% -0.33%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The negative impact of the US traiff uncertainty on the US Dollar (USD) faded away in the American session on Monday. The bearish opening in Wall Street, followed by another bout of heavy selloff, allowed the USD to benefit from safe-haven flows and caused EUR/USD to turn south.

Meanwhile, the European Parliament decided on Monday to postpone a vote, which was originally planned for Tuesday, on the EU-US trade deal after US President Trump announced blanket 15% tariff in response to the US Supreme Court’s ruling against existing tariffs.

The European economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Tuesday. Later in the day, the Conference Board will publish the US Consumer Confidence Index data for February and the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release the Employment Change 4-week Average. More importantly, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches.

In case policymakers note that the tariff uncertainty will cloud the inflation outlook and cause them to adopt a more patient approach to policy-easing, the USD could stay resilient against its peers and make it difficult for EUR/USD to shake off the bearish pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets virtually see no chance of a rate cut in March and price in about a 80% probability of one more policy hold in April.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis:

The 20-, 50-, and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) slope downward, while the 200-period SMA inches higher. Price trades beneath all four averages, keeping sellers in control. The 20 SMA at 1.1783 serves as nearby dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 41, below its 50 midline, signaling subdued momentum.

The descending trend line from 1.2023 caps recoveries, with resistance seen at 1.1832. Measured from the 1.1590 low to the 1.2027 high, the 61.8% retracement at 1.1757 offers support. A break lower would expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.1684. A recovery through the trend-line barrier would ease bearish pressure, while a violation of Fibonacci support would extend the downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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