The GBPJPY pair suffered strong bullish pressures, pushing it to settle above 206.00 level, forming new bullish rally to press on the barrier at 206.90, attempting to record extra gains by hitting 207.20 level.
Note that stochastic attempt to reach the overbought level, which might provide a new bullish momentum to push it to provide more of the bullish waves by targeting the bullish channel’s resistance towards 207.65, while activating the bearish corrective scenario requires forming a sharp decline, which allows it to break the extra support at 205.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 206.25 and 207.65
The GBPJPY pair suffered strong bullish pressures, pushing it to settle above 206.00 level, forming new bullish rally to press on the barrier at 206.90, attempting to record extra gains by hitting 207.20 level.
Note that stochastic attempt to reach the overbought level, which might provide a new bullish momentum to push it to provide more of the bullish waves by targeting the bullish channel’s resistance towards 207.65, while activating the bearish corrective scenario requires forming a sharp decline, which allows it to break the extra support at 205.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 206.25 and 207.65
The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed above $1.32 on Wednesday as UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her autumn budget.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3207, up roughly 0.3% from its opening levels.
The Pound (GBP) strengthened through Wednesday as Chancellor Rachel Reeves finally unveiled her much-anticipated autumn budget, ending weeks of uncertainty.
Sterling was boosted by refreshed forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which pointed to stronger growth prospects in 2025 than previously expected.
Investor confidence was also helped by the bond market reaction, with a drop in UK gilt yields signalling broad approval of Reeves’s fiscal package.
The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure on Wednesday, with demand for the safe-haven currency fading amid a wave of improved risk appetite.
A key driver of the upbeat mood was renewed optimism surrounding a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, with reports suggesting encouraging progress in ongoing talks.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Further weighing on the Dollar were increasingly dovish expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
Markets continue to price the possibility of a December rate cut, while speculation over Fed leadership added another layer of caution.
White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett is now widely seen as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell next year – a potential shift that could tilt the Fed in a more dovish direction.
GBP/USD Forecast: Post-Budget Analysis to Drive Sterling Volatility
Looking to Thursday, deeper scrutiny of the autumn budget is likely to influence further movement in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
Investors will assess how Reeves’s tax and spending plans may shape Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy – particularly whether tighter fiscal settings increase pressure on policymakers to support growth through additional rate cuts.
Meanwhile, with US markets closed for Thanksgiving, lighter trading conditions could leave the Dollar more vulnerable to shifts in overall risk appetite. If optimism holds, USD may struggle to regain momentum.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
EUR/USD edges lower on Wednesday, trading around 1.1550 at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day. The pair is consolidating after reaching a weekly high just below 1.1600, as the US figures published earlier in the day temporarily capped the bullish momentum seen earlier this week.
The latest data portray a US economy that is not weakening as quickly as previously suggested by earlier releases. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 216,000, beating expectations of 225,000, indicating the labor market is not deteriorating as sharply as feared. Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders rose 0.5% in September, above the 0.3% consensus, signaling resilience in manufacturing demand. These upside surprises helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) hold near 99.80, reversing the Euro’s (EUR) intraday advance.
Still, the numbers were not strong enough to shift the broader market narrative. Investors remain largely convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to cut rates in December, a scenario still priced at over 80% according to the CME FedWatch tool, even after today’s data. Tuesday’s ADP report, which showed private-sector job losses over the four weeks ending November 8, continues to weigh on sentiment, while recent softness in consumption and consumer confidence reinforce expectations of an imminent policy pivot.
On the European front, support for the Euro remains modest. The European Central Bank (ECB) published its Financial Stability Review, highlighting elevated risks to financial stability in the Eurozone, particularly the vulnerability of Bond markets to high public debt in several member states. This, combined with the absence of any indication that the ECB is preparing to shift policy soon, limits the Euro’s ability to extend gains.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1549, down for the day and below the day open by 42 pips. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) slips to 1.1558, with price capped beneath it to maintain a bearish tone. The SMA’s gentle downward slope suggests persistent selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.9 sits around the neutral line and softens, signaling fading upside momentum. A descending trend line from 1.1919 caps advances near 1.1599. Immediate support is seen at 1.1540, then at 1.1500, while resistance follows at 1.1650.
The 100-period SMA remains above price and points lower, keeping bears in control. A recovery above the average would ease pressure and could trigger a corrective bounce. RSI hovers near 50; a decisive push lower would tilt momentum bearish. On the upside, resistance is located at 1.1728, then at 1.1779, while a break under 1.1500 would expose support at 1.1470. Overall, the setup favors further downside unless buyers reclaim the moving average and extend beyond nearby resistance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) edged up to 1.1379 as traders held back ahead of today’s make-or-break UK budget, with markets primed for a sharp reaction once fiscal details emerge.
Bond-market confidence remains the decisive driver, with implied volatility signalling deep caution despite firmer gilt yields.
Any failure to convince on long-term sustainability risks a renewed Sterling setback.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Bond Market Reaction Crucial
The Pound-Euro found support at 1.1340 on Monday and has rallied to near 1.1380 amid tentative evidence of short covering ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
Narrow ranges may prevail today with trader paralysis ahead of the budget and ING expects GBP/EUR to trade around 1.1365 today.
Lloyds Bank sees key GBP/EUR support at 1.1280 with resistance at 1.1400.
Save on Your GBP/EUR Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
There has been evidence of Sterling selling in options markets and any position adjustment could underpin the Pound today, but markets are braced for big moves tomorrow.
Monex Europe head of macro research Nick Rees commented; “The potential downside risks for the UK economy related to the budget are going to keep all eyes on sterling. So that’s our real focus.”
Markets will be looking at the net fiscal tightening together with the balance of near-term and long-term revenue-raising measures.
According to Bank of America; “We think the Chancellor still likely needs to do £27-32bn (0.9%-1.1% of GDP) in tax rises/spending cuts in the Budget to fill the fiscal gap and raise the headroom. This is slightly lower than before.”
The overall verdict is likely to be driven by the bond market which, in turn, will help drive the Pound reaction.
The 10-year yield held steady around 4.54% on Tuesday, but there are still significant stresses in Sterling markets.
ING commented that EUR/GBP 1-week implied volatility is currently at the highest relative gap since the 2022 mini budget.
According to the bank; “This signals that despite some recovery in back-end gilts, the currency market remains concerned ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget announcement.”
Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan commented; “the devil will be in the details, and if Reeves is unable to convince markets that she has a credible long-term plan for fiscal sustainability, then the pound could struggle on Wednesday. At any rate, brace for volatility in sterling this week.”
Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya sees an elevated risk profile; “tomorrow’s budget is “make-or-break’ for sterling, because either the Bank of England steps in to prevent a gilt flare-up if investors dislike what they hear, or to cushion the economy if tax hikes bite hard.”
Scotiabank, however, sees scope for a Pound rally; “UK fiscal concerns have been a dominant driver of GBP weakness, contributing to the bulk of the pound’s decline since mid-September. We feel that a lot of bad news is already priced, tilting the balance of risk to the upside with a (very) low bar to surprise.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The British pound rallied as shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy drive most currency action at the moment.
Holiday-thinned U.S. trading is likely to amplify volatility, with GBP/USD facing key resistance near 1.32 while broader sentiment remains cautious.
The British pound rallied on Tuesday as we continue to see traders go back and forth with their expectations on what the Federal Reserve may or may not do. The latest movement has been based on the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to cut to the bone again. And really, at this point, I think the entirety of the currency markets is focusing on the Federal Reserve and probably not much more than that.
This is going to lead to even more volatility, but this week is going to be especially dangerous as the Americans are going to be away for Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is on Thursday, and most Americans not only will be away from their desk on Thursday but will probably be away from their desk on Friday anyway.
Volatility Risks and Dollar Reaction
So, with that being said, I would expect a radical and nonsensical movement at times with the retail sales figures coming out a little softer than anticipated during the trading session. We’ve seen the US dollar take it on the chin, but ironically, a weak US consumer might actually have people running back toward the US dollar eventually, at least for some type of safety.
The British pound is going to remain soft in relation to other currencies as the Bank of England came dangerously close to cutting interest rates last time. And I think that’s something that people will still focus on. With that being the case, I think signs of exhaustion will probably get sold into. But again, this week is going to be thin from a volume standpoint, and that’s something that you need to pay close attention to.
The 1.32 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching, as it is an area that has seen both support and resistance and is the top of the current range that we are in. The 50-day EMA is doing everything it can to cross below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called death cross, which is a longer-term selling signal, but not necessarily one that I find overly reliable. So with that being the case, I’m watching the 1.32 level very closely for signs of exhaustion.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Register now to be able to add articles to your reading list.
” aria-hidden=”true”>
Quick overview
USDJPY has recovered to around 156.60, despite the Yen being the weakest G8 currency.
The Bank of Japan is hinting at a possible interest rate hike, but the Yen continues to decline.
The Yen has dropped nearly 5% since early October and over 10% since US tariff announcements.
US economic data remains mixed, yet the Dollar is supported by the Yen’s weakness.
During Wednesday’s European session, USDJPY recovered earlier losses and traded back toward 156.60, extending a trend that’s seen the Yen post the weakest performance among G8 currencies. Even with the Bank of Japan hinting at a possible rate hike, the currency continues to slide, keeping the Dollar supported despite softer US economic signals.
BoJ Signals a Hike, But Yen Doesn’t Respond
A Reuters report this week suggested the BoJ is preparing markets for a potential interest-rate increase as early as next month. Yet the Yen hasn’t strengthened. Policymakers remain concerned that a fragile Yen could add stress to households and businesses, limiting the BoJ’s ability to tighten policy aggressively.
The decline has been steep: the Yen has dropped nearly 5% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office in early October, and more than 10% since US tariff announcements earlier this year.
Officials have openly warned that currency intervention is “on the table,” and with US markets thinned by the Thanksgiving holiday, traders see this week as a window where authorities could step in. Japan’s Tokyo CPI report, due Thursday, will also shape expectations for the BoJ’s December stance, with forecasts pointing to cooling inflation.
US Data Keeps the Dollar Supported
Across the Pacific, US economic data has been mixed. Retail Sales softened, producer prices steadied, and consumer confidence fell. Meanwhile, dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and John Williams fueled expectations of a December rate cut. Yet even with rate-cut bets rising, the Yen’s weakness has helped the Dollar maintain an upward bias.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USDJPY is attempting to build momentum after finding support near 155.68, a level that aligns with the rising November trendline. Price has climbed back above the 20-EMA, showing early signs of stabilization, though the pair remains capped below 157.19, a level that sellers defended earlier this week.
The RSI has pushed above 50, pointing to improving sentiment while avoiding any overbought signals. A decisive break above 157.19 would clear the way toward 157.88, followed by a retest of 158.56, a key resistance zone.
If price slips back under 156.00, downside pressure may re-emerge, exposing 155.68 and potentially 154.79 as the next support areas.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1460 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1380.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1660 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Improved investor sentiment amid signals of a potential resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict gave EUR/USD bulls enough momentum to launch gains to the 1.1568 resistance level during yesterday’s trading session. The pair is stable around these gains at the time of writing this analysis, amidst mixed results from the US economic releases, led by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figures. Today, the currency pair will be watching a new round of US economic releases, led by weekly unemployment claims and durable goods orders, scheduled for 03:30 PM Egypt time. Later, there will be new statements from European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Lagarde.
EUR/USD Forecast: Prices Remain Steady Near 1.15
According to Forex currency market trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate tested the 1.15 level, as market volatility and fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December contributed to lifting the value of the US Dollar. Regarding the future of the EUR/USD price, global banks remain divided, with near-term pressures contrasting with medium-term expectations pointing to a recovery above the 1.20 psychological resistance level.
Now, Financial markets are focused on the uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy and changing interest rate differentials to assess the next move. Following initial currency weakness, Danske Bank expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.22 over a 12-month period. For its part, Morgan Stanley sees the potential for EUR/USD to rise to 1.23 by the second quarter of 2026 before receding to 1.16 by the end of 2026. They anticipate further net losses to 1.14 by the end of the following year.
The movement of the technical indicators on the daily chart is still in the bearish territory: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 47, below the neutral line of 50, and at the same time, the MACD indicator lines are still on their downward slope. Over the same timeframe, the 1.1800 psychological resistance will remain the key to changing the overall trend to ascending.
US Monetary Policies and Their Impact on Currency Prices
Regarding the factors influencing currency prices: Following the US jobs data and Federal Reserve minutes, expectations for a Fed rate cut at the December monetary policy meeting saw a further decline, which supported the US currency. In this regard, Danske Bank commented: “We still see EUR/USD on an upward trajectory in the medium term, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials, a recovery in the European asset market, reduced global demand for restrictive policies, continued tailwinds from hedge ratio adjustments, and reduced confidence in US institutions.”
Overall, a high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the US Federal Reserve’s policy in the medium term. Regarding the future of the bank’s policies, UBS Bank commented: “The appointment of a new Fed Chairman could also change policy expectations, potentially leading to lower US interest rates than currently expected. Additionally, the continuation of the US double deficit means the country must continue to attract external funding, which could put further pressure on the US Dollar, especially in the scenario mentioned above.”
Trading Advice:
Do not be deceived, as EUR/USD gains are still limited and unstable and need more stimulus to become stronger and sustained.
Despite the weakness of copper prices in the last period, its stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, and holding above $4,7500, supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to settle near $5.0500.
Facing the barrier at $5.2000 by the main indicators confirms the importance of surpassing it to open the way for recording extra gains that might begin at $5.3200 and $5.5000.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.9500 and $5.2000
The EURJPY pair is forced to provide weak sideways trading, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, keeping its stability near 180.80, reminding you that the negative stability below 181.75 barrier forms main factors to motivate the dominance of the bearish corrective trend, to expect the attempt of pressing on 179.40 level, where surpassing it will form next main target at 178.60 for the bearish trading.
While breaching the mentioned barrier and holding above it will increase the chances of resuming the main bullish trend, to expect recording extra gains by its rally towards 182.30 and 183.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 179.30 and 181.10
