Following the less hawkish RBA press conference, investors must also consider RBA board member commentary throughout the week.

US Economic Calendar: Consumer Confidence, Jobless Claims, and the Fed

Chicago and Dallas Fed numbers will garner investor interest on Monday. Investors will likely be sensitive to weaker-than-expected numbers. Signs of a deteriorating US economy could retrigger fears of a hard landing.

Economists forecast the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to fall by 0.9% in February after a 0.3% decline in January. However, economists predict the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index to increase from -11.3 points to -8.0 points in March.

On Tuesday, core durable goods orders and consumer confidence warrant investor attention. Upward trends in core durable goods orders would align with recent survey-based manufacturing data, signaling a resilient US economy. Economists forecast core durable goods orders to increase by 0.4% month-on-month in February. In January, core durable goods orders declined by 0.3%.

However, consumer confidence numbers could have more impact. An unexpected increase in consumer confidence could signal a positive outlook on consumer spending. Economists expect the CB Consumer Confidence Index to remain at 106.7 in March.

Consumer sentiment will be in focus again on Thursday, with jobless claims and GDP numbers also on the docket. Barring a marked downward revision to US GDP figures for Q4, consumer sentiment, and jobless claims will influence the dollar more.

Tight labor market conditions support wage growth, consumer confidence, and spending.

Economists forecast initial jobless claims to increase from 210k to 215k in the week ending March 23. According to preliminary numbers, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped from 76.9 to 76.5 in March.

US Personal Income and Outlays Report and Fed Chair Powell

The all-important Personal Income and Outlays Report for February will be the focal point on Friday. Upward personal income/spending trends and hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could impact bets on a June Fed rate cut. The Fed considers the Core PCE Price Index the benchmark for inflation.

Economists forecast the Core PCE Price Index to increase by 2.8% year-on-year in February after rising 2.8% in January. Moreover, economists expect personal income and spending to advance by 0.4% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, in February.

Beyond the numbers, Fed Chair Powell (Fri) and FOMC members Raphael Bostic (Mon), Lisa Cook (Mon), and Christopher Waller (Wed) are on the calendar to speak.

Short-Term Forecast:

The near-term trend for the AUD/USD will hinge on Aussie and US inflation numbers. Hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could delay the timeline for a Fed rate cut. However, a pickup in Australian inflation could refuel bets on an RBA rate hike and tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

An Aussie dollar breakout from the $0.65500 handle would support a move to the 50-day EMA and the $0.65760 resistance level. A break above the $0.65760 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and the $0.66 handle.

Aussie and US inflation numbers and central bank commentary will move the dial.

Conversely, an AUD/USD break below the $0.65 handle would give the bears a run at the $0.64582 support level. A fall through the $0.64582 support level could signal an AUD/USD drop below the $0.64 handle.

Considering the RSI indicator, a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 42.72 suggests an AUD/USD fall below the $0.64582 support level before entering oversold territory.

Goldman Sachs forecasts for USD/JPY:

• 3 months 155 (the prior forecast for 3 months out was 145)
• 6 months 150 (prior 142)
• 12 months 145 (prior 140)

These are from a GS note sent to client on Friday.

GS cite a “benign macro risk environment” for its bearish view on yen. GS analysts also say they don’t expect rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to lift the yen:

• “If anything, the anticipation of adjustment cuts has reduced the probability of the recession risks that tend to activate the yen’s safe-haven appeal.”

Over the past many, many months Goldman Sachs have been a stand out amongst analysts in not expecting a US recession, the firm has consistently had its recession probability forecast well under consensus.

USD/JPY update as of Friday afternoon, US time:

The Shiba Inu team lead, known by the pseudonym Shytoshi Kusama, seems to be continuing with his travels around the globe. The SHIB community keeps watching his location tags changing on X/Twitter.

The most recent one has raised a heated and rather humorous discussion among members of the SHIB community. Here’s where the mysterious Shytoshi Kusama has been spotted this time around.

Kusama heads for the Maldives, here’s potential reason

Japanese SHIB army member @kuro_9696_9696 has tweeted to spread the word about Shytoshi Kusama’s new location – the Maldives.

On March 19, he was spotted in New York City thanks to X, and prior to that, in March, his location tags on Twitter included Japan, Hong Kong, Puerto Rico and several cities in the U.S. SHIB’s lead developer Kaal Dhairya has also been moving around – his location tag showed Dubai.

Last year, one of Kusama’s location tags showed that he visited Niseko, Japan. At about the same time, he published a message in Discord saying that he was taking a chance to relax and enjoy himself “just like everyone else.” The SHIB community concluded that Shiba Inu lead and Ryoshi’s partner in building SHIB was finally on vacation. Since the Maldives is also known as a popular resort destination, odds are that Shytoshi Kusama is also relaxing on the beach at the moment.

In the comments thread, some users giggled at Kusama moving from one country to another so fast, saying things like: “I’m convinced Shy’s a pilot or he’s flying on Shiba airlines” and “Since Shytoshi is a Saiyan, he can fly at high speed.”

SHIB burn rate plunges

According to data shared by Shibburn, within the last 24 hours, the SHIB army has succeeded in disposing of a large SHIB amount: almost 10 million. This is much smaller than was burned on Thursday though. The overall burn rate has plunged by more than 70%.

The two largest burn transactions on this list carried 4,111,000 and 4,000,000 SHIB to unspendable blockchain addresses.

In the meantime, activity on layer-2 blockchain Shibarium, which allows the SHIB army to conduct their personal SHIB burns, has dropped significantly recently. At the time of this writing, this metric has reached a low of 48,730 transactions.

In-depth Look at U.S. Gasoline Demand

A significant development impacting oil prices has been the unexpected decrease in U.S. gasoline demand. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the gasoline product supplied, a key demand indicator, fell to just below 9 million barrels per day. This figure represents a notable 4.5% drop from the previous week, highlighting a potential shift in energy consumption patterns in the U.S. The decrease is significant, given the historical link between gasoline demand and oil prices. The drop could suggest an overvaluation of demand strength, potentially signaling a reevaluation in market expectations and a reassessment of future price directions.

Geopolitical Events: Global Impact on Oil Supply

Geopolitical events have been central in influencing oil supply and market sentiment. The United States’ push for a U.N. resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza is particularly noteworthy. While mainly a diplomatic effort, such developments can significantly impact the oil market due to the region’s strategic importance in global oil supply. Historically, Middle Eastern geopolitical instability has often led to increased oil market volatility, with price surges reflecting concerns over supply disruptions.

Federal Reserve Policy and Its Economic Implications

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continues to be a crucial factor in shaping market perceptions. The decision to maintain interest rates steady, with projections for three rate cuts within the year, could have a dual impact. On one side, lower interest rates might stimulate economic growth, potentially leading to increased oil demand. However, the real impact of these rate cuts will largely depend on the overall health of the global economy, which is currently showing mixed signals, with certain key economies displaying signs of slowing growth.

U.S. Dollar’s Role in Oil Market

The strength of the U.S. Dollar significantly influences crude oil prices. A stronger dollar, as seen following key global financial events like the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate cut, makes oil more expensive for non-dollar holders, thus potentially reducing international demand. This week’s strengthening of the dollar adds another layer of complexity to the market. The dollar’s strength inversely correlates with commodity prices, and as such, is crucial in determining oil demand and pricing on the global stage.

Short-Term Weekly Forecast

Looking ahead, the immediate outlook for WTI crude appears cautious. On one side, the reduction in U.S. gasoline demand suggests potential downward pressure on oil prices. On the other, geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy might introduce counteracting factors. The market is at a critical juncture, with these elements likely to influence the direction of oil prices in the coming week. Market participants should closely monitor domestic consumption patterns and international geopolitical developments for insights into potential price movements, especially considering the heightened market sensitivity to these factors. The role of the U.S. Dollar in shaping international demand will also be key in the short-term direction of oil prices.

In a recent exchange on social media, Justin Bons, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, addressed criticisms of the Solana blockchain, urging a more nuanced understanding of the platform’s evolution.

Bons acknowledged historical critiques of Solana (SOL) but emphasized the need to recognize the platform’s advancements and current capabilities. He encouraged critics to update their perspectives, noting that Solana has undergone significant development since its inception in 2020 and what may be called a renaissance in 2023.

Responding to concerns raised by another participant in the discussion, Bons clarified that he does not advocate ignoring Solana’s flaws. Instead, he highlighted areas for improvement, including issues with the fee market and potential decentralization challenges.

However, Bons pushed back against what he described as oversimplified criticisms, particularly regarding claims of centralization and an alleged off-switch. He stressed the importance of considering the nuanced nature of decentralization assessments within blockchain networks.

Scalability matters

In his remarks, Bons reiterated his support for Solana’s scaling initiatives, noting its commitment to on-chain scalability — an aspect he believes distinguishes it from other blockchain platforms.

The exchange reflects broader discussions within the cryptocurrency community regarding the strengths and weaknesses of various blockchain networks. As Solana continues to garner attention for its capabilities and first of all the rise of the SOL price by 1,643% in the past year and three months, conversations surrounding its development and potential shortcomings remain key topics of debate among industry experts.