Recent on-chain data shared by the @lookonchain analytics platform on the X/Twitter app describes a smart whale who bought over a billion USD worth of Bitcoin two years ago and is now sitting on a hefty unrealized profit.

Meanwhile, the price of the world’s flagship cryptocurrency, BTC, has demonstrated a slight decline of 1.73%, dropping below the quickly taken $62,000 level in the past 24 hours.

Whale sits on $900 profit from holding Bitcoin

A tweet published by the aforementioned source earlier today says that a smart whale purchased a massive $1.39 billion worth of Bitcoin in July 2022, paying $21,629 per BTC on average.

Now that, since the start of 2024, the Bitcoin price has surged by roughly 50% and surpassed the $62,000 level briefly earlier this week, this whale has an unrealized profit of more than $900 million from the Bitcoin he holds.

Overall, whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin, while the price has dipped a little, going below $62,000. The same source as above has reported that over the past hour, a fresh Bitcoin wallet acquired 2,475 BTC from the Binance exchange. This amount of BTC worth $153.66 million has turned this wallet into a whale.

According to Whale Alert cryptocurrency tracking platform, a massive 6,034 Bitcoin evaluated at $374,502,788 were transferred between anonymous whales approximately 12 hours ago. Several large Bitcoin chunks were also the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and its institutional platform.

Bitcoin ETFs acquire close to billion in BTC

@lookonchain also published an update on Thursday about Bitcoin acquisitions made by the spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Feb. 29, eight of the eleven approved funds laid their hands on a whopping 14,934 BTC worth $940 million.

BlackRock and Fidelity are again the leading purchasers here – the former bought the largest lump of 10,140 BTC (worth $638 million), and the latter grabbed 4,066 BTC (worth $255.9 million). Basically, nearly the whole amount that went into spot-based Bitcoin ETFs yesterday was received by just two of these exchange-traded funds. Grayscale continues to sell its Bitcoin, and yesterday, it got rid of 2,223 BTC – the equivalent of $139.8 million. VanEck purchased 170 BTC. Bitwise ETF acquired 164 BTC.

Monero experienced a drop of over 30% before correcting by half the next day. Let’s take a closer look at the future outlook for the price of XMR.

Monero’s Situation (XMR)

propelled to $174. This price level then served as resistance. However, the Monero price formed higher and higher peaks, suggesting increasing bullish pressure. Unfortunately, the inevitable happened: Binance delisted Monero. The value of Monero then plummeted violently, breaking several supports and going from $165 to $100. The following day, the cryptocurrency recovered somewhat by testing the $132 level. As a result, Monero responded on its networks and was supported by all staunch defenders of anonymity. This morning, the Monero price is hovering around $119.

This recent drop has pushed XMR below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, underscoring the increased volatility that the cryptocurrency has experienced. This suggests that an adjustment in strategy may be necessary on the part of investors. As for the oscillators, they have naturally been adjusted downwards, positioning well below the midpoint threshold. From an optimistic point of view, this could indicate that the cryptocurrency is currently undervalued. Nevertheless, from a more pessimistic angle, it could also be interpreted as a sign that momentum is shifting towards a bearish trend.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. He is now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of independent traders active since 2017, where you will find live sessions, educational content, and peer support regarding financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (XMR/USDT)

Contrary to its price, the open interest in XMR/USDT has clearly increased significantly. Indeed, it has recorded an increase of more than 246%, with nearly $50 million added to Monero’s perpetual contracts. On the side of liquidations, a sharp increase can be observed at this time. However, these have not affected its open interest. In summary, it can be understood that speculators’ interest has been predominantly on the sellers’ side. 

The XMR liquidation heatmap from the last three months reveals that the cryptocurrency has brazenly traversed various liquidation zones. Currently, the most significant zones are above its current price. Notably, the $170 zone, and even more importantly, the $180 zone. As the market approaches these levels, there could be a massive trigger of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

The Hypotheses for the Price of Monero (XMR)

• If the price of Monero manages to hold above $96, we could anticipate a bullish recovery up to the $174 threshold. The next resistance to consider if the bullish movement continues would be $200, and even $250. At this stage, this would represent a near +97% increase.

• If the price of Monero fails to hold above $96, a return to $85 could be envisioned. The next level to consider if the bearish movement persists would be around $60. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to -53%.

Conclusion

Monero, the cryptocurrency with the advantage of enhancing privacy, has seen this asset become a weakness. Indeed, it is starting to be boycotted by exchange platforms, which naturally worries investors and leads to a drop in its price. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency seems to be facing this situation. Now, it will be crucial to closely observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or dispel the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant about potential “fake outs” and “squeezes” in the market in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that cryptocurrency prices can also evolve quickly based on other more fundamental factors.

Family Trading

Family Trading est une Communauté de traders a compte propre active depuis 2017 offrant Lives, contenus éducatifs et entraides autour des marchés financiers dont celui des cryptomonnaies avec à ses côtés Elie FT, investisseur et trader de passion sur le marché crypto.

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XRP is currently on the verge of a pivotal technical event: the formation of a golden cross on the XRP/USDT Chart. This pattern emerges when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average, typically indicating the potential for a significant bullish trend reversal.

Analyzing the recent price action of XRP, we see an asset that is attempting to break free from the gravity of its moving averages. After a period of lateral movement, XRP has started to show signs of upward momentum. 

The 50-day moving average is edging closer to the 200-day moving average, hinting at the possibility of a golden cross formation in the near future. This development could signal the beginning of a long-term upward trend.

The current resistance for XRP stands firm at the $0.60 level, a breach of which could lend credence to the golden cross’s predictive power. Meanwhile, support levels have solidified around the $0.55 mark, offering a foundation for the price to build upon.  

In a bullish scenario, should the golden cross materialize, we could witness a substantial rally, with XRP possibly retesting previous highs and attracting new investment into the asset. This outcome would be further supported by increasing volume, which would indicate growing interest and investment in XRP.

On the flip side, the bearish scenario would involve a false breakout, where XRP fails to sustain its upward trajectory, causing the golden cross to abort. Such a scenario could result in a quick retracement to lower support levels, potentially dampening investor sentiment.

As we look to the future, the likelihood of a golden cross on XRP’s chart is an exciting prospect, yet it remains contingent on the continuation of current buying pressure and market sentiment.

According to data from blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, a major whale has sold all 1.97 trillion PEPE tokens they held for a total of $6.07 million, netting a profit of $3.49 million. 

The funds were then redistributed across several other cryptocurrencies, including Shiba Inu (SHIB), Decentraland (MANA), The Sandbox (SAND), and Gala (GALA).

A strategic portfolio rebalance

The whale’s reallocation strategy appears meticulously calculated, with purchases spread across a spectrum of emerging and established digital currencies. 

Specifically, the investor acquired 75.9 billion SHIB tokens for $893,000, 1.6 million MANA tokens valued at $1.07 million, 2.43 million SAND tokens for $1.48 million, and 36.88 million GALA tokens at a cost of $1.46 million. 

This move is typical for large-scale investors to spread their bets across a variety of assets within the crypto space. In such a way, they can capitalize on the unique opportunities each coin may present.

This reallocation shows the investor’s approach to spreading investments across different cryptocurrency categories, from meme coins (which capitalize on social media trends and community support) to tokens that underpin virtual worlds and decentralized gaming ecosystems. 

SHIB sees a dramatic drop

The cryptocurrencies selected by the whale have shown mixed performance in the market. PEPE, from which the original funds were divested, has seen a 3.6% increase in price, trading at $0.052738.

SHIB, now a significant part of the whale’s portfolio, has experienced an 11.3% decline, with its price standing at $0.00001277.

MANA and SAND, central to the virtual real estate and gaming sectors of the crypto world, have surged by 12.7% and 8.8%, respectively, showcasing the investor’s focus on sectors with high growth potential. 

GALA, another gaming-related token, has increased by 4.4%, underscoring the investor’s diversified approach towards both established and emerging market segments within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Mumbai: India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 2.975 billion to USD 619.072 billion in the week that ended on February 23, as per the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Prior to the February 23 week, the foreign exchange reserves were at USD 616.097 billion.

During the week, India’s foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose by USD 2.405 billion to USD 548.188 billion, the central bank’s weekly statistical data showed. Gold reserves during the week declined by USD 472 million to USD 47.848 billion.

In the calendar year 2023, the RBI added about USD 58 billion to its foreign exchange kitty. In 2022, India’s forex kitty slumped by USD 71 billion cumulatively. Forex reserves or foreign exchange reserves (FX reserves), are assets that are held by a nation’s central bank or monetary authority.

It is generally held in reserve currencies, usually the US Dollar and, to a lesser degree, the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Pound Sterling. In October 2021, the country’s foreign exchange reserves touched an all-time high of about USD 645 billion. Much of the decline, though marginal on a cumulative basis, since then can be attributed to a rise in the cost of imported goods in 2022.

Also, the relative fall in forex reserves could be linked to the RBI’s intervention, from time to time, in the market to defend the uneven depreciation in the rupee against a surging US dollar. Typically, the RBI, from time to time, intervenes in the market through liquidity management, including through the selling of dollars, to prevent a steep depreciation in the rupee.

The RBI closely monitors the foreign exchange markets and intervenes only to maintain orderly market conditions by containing excessive volatility in the exchange rate, without reference to any pre-determined target level or band.

Total net outflows across the BTC-spot ETF market likely contributed to the BTC losses (-0.31%) on Saturday, March 2.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the Wednesday high of $64,006 would support a move toward the all-time high of $69,276.

BTC-spot ETF market-related chatter needs consideration.

However, a drop below the $62,000 handle would give the bears a run at the $59,176 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 80.26, shows BTC in overbought territory. Selling pressure will likely intensify at the Wednesday high of $64,006.

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Markets:

• Gold up $40 to $2083
• US 10-year yields down 6.8 bps to 4.18%
• WTI crude oil up $1.51 to $79.78
• S&P 500 up 0.8%, Nasdaq up 1.1%
• Bitcoin up 2.1% to $62,750
• AUD leads, JPY lags

Happy Friday. It certainly was for the market as a trio of soft second-tier US economic data releases combined to add a dose of dovishness to the market and send the Nasdaq above the 2021 high.

Before the data, some worry was creeping into the market and the US dollar was bid. Comments from Barkin struck a hawkish note and with Waller on the schedule after him, there was some worry about a hawkish turn. Instead, the ISM manufacturing, construction spending and final UMich numbers were all soft and the dollar sank. Then Waller limited his comments to the balance sheet and Goolsbee stayed dovish.

US 10-year Treasury yields fell 12 bps from the highs and broke the important 4.20% level. With that, I would have expect more US dollar selling but that might have been capped by turn-of-the-calendar or US equity buying. The euro and pound managed to recoup yesterday’s declines while the Australian dollar edged modestly above yesterday’s highs before stalling.

USD/JPY declined after the data and finished the week just above 150.00 in what’s going to be an intriguing month for the pair.

Gold closed at the highest level on record, at least spot gold did (futures were close). Oil got above $80 only to finish just below in what was a strong day for commodities.

Bitcoin was lackluster early despite the Nasdaq bid but caught up late to finish within striking distance of the highs of the week. Eyes will be on BTC on the weekend, where it’s generally languished since the ETFs emerged.