GBP/USD moved away from recent lows as traders took some profits off the table after the strong move. In the UK, traders focused on the GfK Consumer Confidence report for September. The report showed that Consumer Confidence improved from -14 to -13, compared to analyst forecast of -16.
If GBP/USD moves above the 1.3250 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3285 – 1.3300. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above 1.3300, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.3345. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
2026.09.25 2026.09.25 EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 25.09.26–02.10.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1496 with a target of 1.1120–1.0895. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.1496. Stop Loss: above 1.1540, Take Profit: 1.1120–1.0895.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1496 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1790–1.2088. A buy signal: the level of 1.1496 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.1450, Take Profit: 1.1790–1.2088.
Main Scenario
Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.1496 with a target of 1.1120–1.0895.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation above 1.1496 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1790–1.2088.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree B is developing, with wave (A) of B forming as its part. On the daily time frame, the third wave 3 of (A) is apparently unfolding. Within it, wave i of 3 has formed and a downward corrective wave ii of 3 is unfolding. Wave (c) of ii is developing on the H4 time frame, with the third wave of smaller degree iii of (c) developing inside. If the presumption is correct, EUR/USD will continue to decline to the levels of 1.1120–1.0895. The level of 1.1496 is critical in this scenario. A breakout above it will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1790–1.2088.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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EURJPY saw some mixed trading yesterday; however, its repeated stability below the barrier at 180.80 confirms the bearish path, with the pair currently slipping toward 179.75. Moreover, the continued alignment of the main indicators in providing negative momentum will increase the chances of resuming the bearish attack, with expectations of renewed pressure on the barrier at 179.45. Breaking below this level would pave the way for additional bearish targets at 178.60 and 177.80, respectively.
The expected trading range for today is between 178.60 and 180.80
GBPJPY remains affected by the stability of the barrier near 210.40, prompting the pair to form some negative trades and currently target the 208.80 level. We note that the availability of negative momentum will increase the chances of soon attacking the additional support at 208.10, which, if broken, would push the pair to resume its bearish pressure, directly targeting 207.40 and then 206.80.
Meanwhile, failure to break below 208.10 would force the pair into mixed trading, with an opportunity to renew pressure on the barrier at 210.40, which in turn represents the key level for confirming the expected direction of trading in the near and medium term.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 210.00.
EUR/JPY is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 42.47 indicates lingering downside pressure.
A rebound above the nine-day EMA could trigger a bullish reversal toward the 50-day EMA at 182.31.
EUR/JPY has pared back its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 180.10 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross continues to trade within a descending channel pattern, pointing to a persistent bearish outlook.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price sits directly on the nine-day EMA, turning it into a short-term pivot, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.47 remains below the neutral 50 mark, which suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12. A successful break below the short-term price average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 177.00, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
On the upside, a rebound above the nine-day EMA could cause the bullish reversal and support the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 182.31. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.80, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.09%
0.06%
-0.27%
0.07%
-0.02%
0.17%
0.17%
EUR
-0.09%
-0.03%
-0.36%
-0.01%
-0.10%
0.07%
0.07%
GBP
-0.06%
0.03%
-0.33%
0.02%
-0.06%
0.11%
0.11%
JPY
0.27%
0.36%
0.33%
0.37%
0.26%
0.45%
0.44%
CAD
-0.07%
0.01%
-0.02%
-0.37%
-0.11%
0.08%
0.08%
AUD
0.02%
0.10%
0.06%
-0.26%
0.11%
0.18%
0.18%
NZD
-0.17%
-0.07%
-0.11%
-0.45%
-0.08%
-0.18%
0.00%
CHF
-0.17%
-0.07%
-0.11%
-0.44%
-0.08%
-0.18%
-0.00%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The bank highlighted how far the Dollar’s performance has departed from expectations:
“Clearly, the market had not expected that the USD would be entering the final quarter of the year on the front foot.”
Rabobank argues that European growth has held up, but energy risks discourage investors from rebuilding Euro positions:
“That said, we retain the view that the EUR will struggle to find upside momentum during the duration of the Iran war and have revised down our 1 month forecast to 1.14 from 1.16.”
That leaves even the reduced forecast slightly above spot, with June’s annual low of 1.1325 just over half a cent away.
The bank estimates markets now assign roughly a 70% chance to an October Fed hike, following September’s increase.
Although the eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September, Rabobank says stronger US survey results have overshadowed Europe’s improvement.
Its recovery case rests on investors expecting more US tightening than the Fed ultimately delivers:
“Our expectation that EUR/USD will return to 1.16 on a 3 month view reflects the Rabobank house view that the market has priced in too much Fed policy tightening.”
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a three-month low on Thursday, as growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes strengthened the ‘Greenback’.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3220, having recovered slightly from a low of $1.3215 but remaining lower on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) held firm on Thursday as markets continued to anticipate more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve to bring inflation under control.
Expectations of further tightening strengthened after Wednesday’s PMI figures comfortably exceeded forecasts, suggesting the US economy could still be running at a strong pace.
Further support for rate hike bets came on Thursday, when initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell.
Markets are now pricing in a greater than 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.
The Pound (GBP) remained subdued, as expectations of further Fed rate hikes sent ripples through global bond markets.
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The resulting volatility heightened scrutiny of the UK’s already challenging fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget, with reports suggesting the Treasury could reduce its fiscal headroom to avoid having to raise taxes.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-forecast figures from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) provided another slight drag on Sterling, although the impact was relatively limited.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Durable Goods Orders in Focus
Looking ahead, the latest US durable goods orders figures are due on Friday.
A forecast contraction in August could put some pressure on the US Dollar.
However, the ‘Greenback’ may continue to find support if expectations of hawkish Federal Reserve policy sustain demand for the currency.
Risk appetite could also shape the GBP/USD pairing.
As a traditional safe-haven currency, the US Dollar may benefit if investors turn more cautious.
Geopolitical tensions and concerns over rising global borrowing costs could further undermine risk sentiment, potentially lending support to the American Dollar.
With no major UK economic releases scheduled, Sterling is also likely to take its cues from broader market developments, including shifts in risk sentiment, bond market movements and domestic UK headlines.
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USD/JPY is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and react to PMI reports from Japan. Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.9 in August to 54.1 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 55. Services PMI decreased from 52.5 to 51.6, compared to analyst consensus of 52.7. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. If USD/JPY manages to settle above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 160.00 – 160.50 range.
Strong economic data bolstered expectations for another large rate hike next month. The latest CME Group data shows the odds for a 75 basis point hike in October are now at 66 percent. A 50 basis point hike was considered more likely earlier in the week.
Multiple Fed officials spoke yesterday and reiterated the need for further rate increases. Governor Barr said that rate increases would continue until inflation is more in line with the Fed’s 2 percent target. The other members of the Fed who spoke yesterday all gave similar remarks and said that the recent economic data justified the need for continued rate hikes to combat inflation.
The dollar has stronger nearby drivers of demand than the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates last month, but has signaled no strong preference to raise rates again. Bets against the euro could pay off if energy prices keep falling and further easing measures are put in place.
Sterling is more balanced. The Bank of England (BoE) held rates steady at 3.75% last week, but revised its outlook to more hawkish. The BoE and other hawkish central banks give the British currency some protection against falling energy prices. Barclays and UBS expect an interest rate hike by the BoE in November.
Ongoing Middle East diplomacy will also influence inflation. Falling energy prices should ease inflation across the U.S., Europe and Britain, which could impact rates set by the three central banks.
Overall, we have a DXY bullish bias, bearish EUR and GBP bias.
GBPJPY resumed its negative trading, reaching 208.75 and surpassing the previously suggested first bearish target, confirming its continued adherence to the previously proposed bearish path.
Repeated stability below the barrier at 210.40, along with the continued negative momentum from the key indicators, will increase the chances of the pair soon declining toward the additional support at 208.10. A break below this level would open the way for new bearish targets, initially at 207.40 and 206.80, respectively.
Expected trading range for today: 208.10 and 210.00
