The GBPJPY pair kept its stability since yesterday’s trading above 210.40 level, increasing the chances of gathering the required bullish momentum to motivate the suggested bullish trend, reminding you that the initial positive target is located near 211.70 level, and surpassing the moving average 55 will reinforce the chances of recording extra gains by its rally towards 212.15, to press on the previously broken bullish channel’s support that appears in the above image.
Facing new bearish pressure and reaching below the previously mentioned support will confirm its surrender to the bearish corrective bias dominance, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching 209,60 followed by 209.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.65 and 212.15
Natural gas price repeatedly provided negative close below the broken support at $4.100 level, forming a new resistance against the current trading, and stochastic attempt to provide negative momentum by reaching below 50 level will force the price to form new bearish waves, reaching $3.450 and surpassing it might force it to decline towards $3.220, to test high liquidity grab zones.
While the rally above $4.100 and providing bullish close will increase the chances of forming new bullish waves, to attempt to reach $3.370 initially, then waiting for targeting %38.2 Fibonacci correction level near $4.750.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $4.100
The GBP/USD forecast points to further gains to 1.4000 provided the Fed shows a dovish stance in today’s meeting.
Sterling remains at an advantage against the dollar amid recent upbeat UK data, pushing the BoE to rethink its aggressive easing policy.
Technically, the price remains in a strong uptrend with a risk of profit-taking before further upside.
The British pound approached 1.3800 on Wednesday as the US dollar encountered selling pressure ahead of the Fed’s first policy decision of 2026. The Fed is anticipated to keep interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, political tensions over the central bank’s independence are weighing on the dollar. As rumors of administrative pressure on Chair Powell increase concerns about future US monetary policy, investors are pricing in a “governance premium”.
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Sterling has a clear runway due to dollar weakness and solid domestic data. December retail sales rose 0.4%, easing recession fears and suggesting that UK consumers are coping with high borrowing prices better than expected. These numbers have prompted the Bank of England to rethink its aggressive easing cycle, which runs counter to the Fed’s policy.
The pair’s momentum is boosted by global macro trends that favor commodities and high-beta currencies over the dollar. Gold prices have reached record highs, and new US tariff threats are disrupting global trade, making the pound a significant beneficiary of capital rotation out of dollar-denominated assets. UK inflation remains at 2.1%, supporting the Bank of England’s cautious stance and the pound’s yield advantage.
Markets are increasingly focused on the FOMC press conference in the late New York session. Any evidence that the Fed caves to political pressure to cut rates might break the 1.4000 resistance level. On the other hand, if Powell remains data-dependent and hawkish, traders may cover short dollar positions, reversing the sterling rally.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Buyers Aiming for 1.4000
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD price broke above the 1.3800 level, marking a fresh 4-year top at 1.3860 before correcting down to the 1.3790 area. The broken supply zone around 1.3800 is now acting as support, with projections pointing to a test of the swing high at 1.3860, then 1.3900, and finally the psychological level at 1.4000.
However, the RSI remains extremely overbought, which could trigger a correction to test the 20-period MA at 1.3700, ahead of 1.3600. Only a sustained weakness below the 20-period MA could trigger a trend reversal.
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Copper price reached $5.9700 level yesterday to settle below it, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forces it to fluctuate in sideways range by its stability near $5.8300.
We expect the price to be affected by a state of instability due to the ongoing divergence of the main indicators, despite the presence of an opportunity to edge toward $5,720.00. However, exposure to negative pressure may force it to retest the solid support near $5,510.00, while surpassing this level and holding above it will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might extend towards $6.1200 and $6.2400.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.7500 and $6.000
In my view, warnings of yen intervention, a hawkish BoJ policy stance, and expectations of Fed rate cuts support a negative price trajectory. However, Japan’s upcoming election, US economic indicators, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech will be key, given recent price action.
Furthermore, a higher BoJ neutral interest rate level (potentially 1.5%-2.5%) would signal a narrower US-Japan interest rate differential. A sharply narrower rate differential may trigger a yen carry unwind, as seen in mid-2024. An unwind of yen carry trades would likely send USD/JPY toward 140 over the longer term.
However, upside risks to the bearish outlook include:
Dovish BoJ rhetoric and a lower neutral interest rate (potentially 1% – 1.25%).
Fed Chair Powell downplays the chances of an H1 2026 cut.
Robust US economic data dampens bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
These factors would send USD/JPY higher. However, ongoing warnings of yen intervention are likely to cap the upside at the 155 level.
Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.
Conclusion: Politics, the BoJ, and the Fed in the Spotlight
In summary, the USD/JPY trends will hinge on Japan’s election result, Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal spending plans, the BoJ’s policy stance, the Fed’s rate path, and Trump’s tariff policies.
A higher BoJ neutral rate (1.5%-2.5%) would signal a hawkish BoJ rate path, strengthening the yen. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Takaichi’s snap election will also be crucial for the near-term USD/JPY trends, given her fiscal policy goals. Additionally, dovish Fed rhetoric would suggest narrower rate differentials, reaffirming the bearish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.
A stronger yen and the unwinding of yen carry trades would likely push USD/JPY toward 140 over the longer 6-12 month timeline.
For more in-depth analysis, review today’s USD/JPY trading setups in our latest reports and consult the economic calendar.
Gold (XAU/USD) has resumed its broader upside trend on Tuesday, and returns to levels near the all-time highs in the $5,100 area. Trade uncertainties, growing fears of a US government shutdown, and market expectations of further Fed easing are boosting demand for safe havens.
US President Trump brought concerns about its erratic trade policy back to the table after raising 10% tariffs on South Korea by 10%, following a trade rift with Canada on Monday and the EU last week. Meanwhile, US Senate Democrats are threatening to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in response for the killings in Minnesota, which would lead to a partial government shutdown.
Technical analysis: Gold bulls aim at levels above $5,100
The XAU/USD pair maintains its positive trend with bulls aiming for a retest of the $5,100 resistance area, although the indicators in the 4-hour chart are showing signals of an exhausted rally. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bearish crossover near the zero line, with momentum slipping into negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pulling back from overbought levels.
A rejection at $5,100 would suggest a double top, a bearish sign, and give bears hopes for a retest of Monday’s lows, at $4,990, looking for a corrective pullback towards the January 23 low in the $4,890 area. A successful break of the $5,100 level, on the contrary, would expose the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the January 16-21 rally, at the $5,450 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) hovered near a four-month peak on Tuesday, supported by ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, although a lack of fresh data kept volatility contained.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3701, moving sideways just shy of the previous session’s four-month high.
The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure, extending recent losses after a heavy selloff earlier in the week dragged the currency to multi-month lows.
Sentiment towards the Greenback has deteriorated amid growing unease over both foreign policy and domestic political strains. While President Donald Trump stepped back from threatening new tariffs on Europe, markets were unsettled by fresh warnings aimed at Canada, with Trump suggesting 100% tariffs could be imposed if Ottawa pursues a trade agreement with China.
At home, the mood darkened further following public outrage over the second fatal shooting of a US citizen by immigration agents in Minneapolis. The incident reignited fears of political gridlock, with some Democrats withdrawing support for funding the Department of Homeland Security, raising the prospect of another government shutdown.
With tensions simmering on multiple fronts, investors have grown increasingly cautious about holding US Dollar exposure. Although USD briefly stabilised after Trump attempted to cool the situation in Minneapolis, the currency struggled to attract sustained buying interest.
The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, found it difficult to extend gains, with a quiet UK data calendar leaving Sterling short of clear direction.
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Political developments also weighed on sentiment. Reports of renewed friction within the governing Labour Party surfaced after allies of Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved to block Andy Burnham from standing in a forthcoming by-election. The move fuelled speculation it was designed to head off a potential leadership challenge, adding another layer of uncertainty that appeared to cap demand for the Pound.
GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Leadership Decision Looms
Looking ahead, markets are bracing for an announcement from President Donald Trump on his preferred candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, with the nomination expected before the end of the month.
Given Trump’s repeated criticism of Powell’s policy stance, investors anticipate a more dovish nominee when Powell’s term expires in May. Such an outcome could undermine confidence in the US Dollar and place USD under renewed pressure.
With little in the way of UK economic data scheduled, movement in the Pound is likely to remain closely tied to shifts in global risk appetite and developments surrounding US monetary policy.
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Silver price trades choppy on Tuesday, after extending its gains on Monday, sponsored by heightened geopolitical tensions and the US trade war with its allies, reigniting the ‘sell America’ trade during the day. XAG/USD trades at $108.00 after bouncing off daily lows of $103.00, modestly up 0.05%
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s technical picture shows a parabolic uptrend, but it seems that buyers are losing steam, following a run-up near $118.00 on Monday. The day ended at $108.52, forming a ‘huge shooting star,’ a bearish candle.
Worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although showing signs that buyers remain in charge, diverges from price action. The latter had achieved a series of higher highs, contrary to the RSI, which registered lower highs. Therefore, a negative divergence looms and could pave the way for a retracement.
For a bullish continuation, traders must clear $110.00 to remain hopeful for higher prices. Otherwise, a pullback looms, and it could be exacerbated if Silver prices drop below the $100.00 mark.
In that event, the first support for XAG/USD would be the January 23 daily low at $96.14, followed by the January 21 swing low at $90.46.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver Daily Chart
(This story was corrected on January 27 at 20:03 GMT to say that the Silver closing price on Monday was $108.52.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) surged to fresh four-month highs above 1.3680 as the dollar slid sharply on yen intervention fears and another surge in gold prices, pushing the DXY index into a technically fragile zone.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Fresh 4-Month Best
The dollar posted sharp losses in New York trading on Friday and has lost further ground on Monday.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to a 4-month high just above 1.3680 before a slight correction
UoB commented; “We continue to expect a stronger GBP today, but given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3590/1.3700. In other words, GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3700.
The bank notes that levels above 1.3700 are the September 2025 high of 1.3730 and the July 2025 peak at 1.3790.
There are no major UK data releases this week with global developments set to dominate GBP/USD moves.
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The dollar slide was triggered to an important extent by a slump against the yen amid fears that central bank intervention to buy the yen was imminent. Overall dollar sentiment also remained negative while there was another surge in precious metals with silver and gold both jumping to fresh record highs.
MUFG commented; “The broad US dollar index (DXY) remains under downward pressure, having slipped below the 98.00 handle. The index now sits at a technically pivotal zone – any further deterioration risks opening the door to an extended phase of USD softness.”
Overnight, the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve looked to check dollar positions against the yen. This is the final move before a potential move to actually intervene and buy the yen.
ING commented; “Suspected intervention to sell USD/JPY, plus US authorities reportedly getting involved, has prompted a near 3.5% drop since Friday morning. This is not a fundamentally driven dollar move, but the dollar risk premium can stay elevated.”
ING is not convinced that the dollar slide will continue; “away from the geopolitical risk premium being attached to US assets, the dollar’s fundamental story has not deteriorated. Plus, we suspect this week’s FOMC meeting could prove slightly dollar bullish.
It added; “for the dollar sell-off to continue like this, we will probably need to see some poor domestic US news. Away from the FOMC, this will heighten scrutiny on earnings releases from US Big Tech this Wednesday and Thursday.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday with strong expectations that rates will be held at 3.75%.
Danske Bank commented; “We expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy unchanged, in line with broad consensus and market pricing. The Fed will not publish updated projections, so the focus is strictly on Powell’s remarks.”
From a longer-term view it added; “We maintain our forecast for two more Fed cuts, in March and June, slightly ahead of market pricing.”
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Sell gold from the resistance level of $5,140 with a target of $4,800 and a stop-loss at $5,220.
Buy gold from the support level of $4,920 with a target of $5,200 and a stop-loss at $4,870.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
Gold prices have surged past the $5,000 per ounce threshold, driven by global market volatility fueling a historic rally. According to gold trading platforms, prices continued their ascent, crossing the $5,000 mark for the first time in history and reaching a resistance peak of $5,111 before stabilizing near $5,000 at the start of Tuesday’s session. This movement confirms the bulls’ strong grip on the current trend.
Per analyst forecasts, the gold index gains are fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions and increased investor appetite for “safe haven” assets amid financial concerns in major economies. This surge represents one of the most significant long-term achievements in the history of precious metals trading, bolstering gains that have lifted prices by more than 17% since the beginning of the year.
Silver and other precious metals also reached record highs in tandem with gold’s rise, underscoring the overall strength of the sector as the US dollar weakened against major currencies. Factors contributing to this remarkable rise in gold include persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, unclear central bank policies, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Consequently, many institutional investors have increasingly allocated their capital to gold as a hedge against inflationary pressures and potential monetary instability.
While forecasts from late last year predicted gold would approach or cross $5,000 in 2026, breaking this psychological and technical barrier now represents a significant acceleration of those expectations. Commodity analysts will be watching closely to see if risk sentiment continues to support prices at these record levels, or if profit-taking and shifts in general financial conditions will trigger a pullback. Regardless, gold surpassing $5,000 is a defining moment for the precious metals market, reflecting the growing influence of macroeconomic forces reshaping commodity markets in early 2026.
As previously noted, gold investors appear indifferent to technical indicators reaching “strongly overbought” levels; their focus remains on the persistent fundamental factors strengthening the market. However, it is worth noting that a de-escalation of global tensions could provide the most immediate catalyst for a round of profit-taking selloffs.
Trading Advice:
Dear TradersUp trader, we still recommend investing in gold. Generally, the current momentum suggests a buy advantage on dips as long as the price remains above key support levels.
