Gold prices are consolidating near record territory on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as traders juggle two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions: a still-resilient U.S. dollar and the renewed case for lower U.S. interest rates after a cooler-than-expected inflation reading.

In early trading, spot gold was around the $4,330-per-ounce area, modestly lower on the day after a strong prior-session move, while U.S. gold futures were also fractionally softer. ^[1]

But the bigger story for bullion today is macro: U.S. CPI cooled to 2.7% year-on-year in November, under the 3.1% consensus forecast in a Reuters poll—fuel for the “rates can fall further” narrative that has helped propel gold’s historic 2025 rally. ^[2]

Gold price snapshot around today’s 09:55 update

Gold’s headline price action on Dec. 18 is best described as steady-to-soft, not a collapse—more like a market taking a breath near all-time highs after an extraordinary year.

• Spot gold: roughly $4,330/oz (slightly down on the session) ^[3]
• U.S. gold futures: roughly $4,360/oz (also slightly lower) ^[4]

A later read from Reuters showed spot gold down 0.4% to $4,323.57/oz (as of 12:10 GMT) with U.S. futures down 0.4% to $4,356.10, underscoring the day’s “small dip” tone rather than any trend break. ^[5]

Investing.com, meanwhile, cited spot gold at $4,336.54/oz at 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT), with February gold futures at $4,370.30/oz—again consistent with a narrow, high-level range. ^[6]

What’s driving gold today: dollar strength vs. rate-cut optimism

1) The U.S. dollar was a near-term headwind—until CPI hit

One of the simplest relationships in commodities is also one of the most reliable: a stronger dollar can pressure gold, because it makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

Reuters noted the dollar index edged up after touching a near one-week high the prior session, a factor weighing on gold as traders positioned cautiously ahead of inflation data. ^[7]

But CPI shifted the balance.

After the data, Reuters reported the dollar index weakened (down 0.12% to 98.25 in that update) and Treasury yields fell, an environment that typically improves gold’s appeal. ^[8]

2) U.S. inflation surprised lower: CPI 2.7% vs. 3.1% expected

The headline macro catalyst today is the CPI undershoot:

• Headline CPI:+2.7% YoY in November
• Core CPI (ex food & energy):+2.6% YoY
• Consensus forecast:+3.1% YoY for headline CPI (Reuters poll) ^[9]

There’s an important nuance: Reuters reported the CPI release was affected by a 43-day government shutdown, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish month-to-month CPI changes because October data collection was disrupted. That “data quality caveat” is a big reason why markets may be hesitant to chase gold aggressively higher on a single print. ^[10]

Even so, softer inflation tends to push investors toward the view that real yields can fall, which is a structural positive for non-yielding assets like gold. ^[11]

The Fed narrative: rate cuts, politics, and the next chair question

Gold’s 2025 surge has been tightly linked to the belief that the U.S. is in, or nearing, a lower-rate regime. Today’s flow of Fed-related headlines reinforced that debate.

Reuters highlighted that:

• Markets were pricing two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts next year in the update it cited. ^[12]
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank still has room to cut amid rising job market weakness. ^[13]
• U.S. President Donald Trump said the next Fed chair will be someone who believes in lower interest rates “by a lot,” and that a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell would be announced early next year. ^[14]

For bullion investors, this mix matters because gold can react to two things at once:

1. Actual policy expectations (rate cuts = supportive), and
2. Perceived institutional risk (concerns about independence or political pressure can support safe-haven demand).

Reuters’ broader gold-forecast reporting this week explicitly included worries about Fed independence among the factors analysts see supporting bullion into 2026. ^[15]

Central bank day in Europe adds context: BoE cuts, ECB holds, BoJ next

Dec. 18 isn’t only about the Fed. It’s also a heavyweight central-bank week globally, and those decisions feed into FX and bond-market moves that spill over into gold.

Investing.com reported:

• The Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps
• The European Central Bank held rates steady
• The Bank of Japan decision is due Friday, with markets widely pricing a 25 bps hike ^[16]

That mix matters for gold in two ways:

1. Currency channels: The more global central banks diverge, the more volatile FX can become—often boosting demand for hard assets as portfolio stabilizers.
2. Global real-rate expectations: If major central banks lean easier (or if easing cycles broaden), it can reinforce the long-run case for holding gold.

Silver, platinum, palladium: the broader precious-metals complex is still “hot”

Gold isn’t moving in isolation. On Dec. 18, Reuters and Investing.com both highlighted unusual strength across precious metals:

• Silver hovered close to its record highs after a huge year-to-date surge, supported by industrial demand and a supply deficit. ^[17]
• Reuters cited silver’s record high at $66.88/oz in the prior session and noted the metal had risen ~129% year-to-date in that report. ^[18]
• Platinum and palladium also pushed to multi-year highs in Reuters’ update, reflecting a broad “metals bid,” not just a gold-only trade. ^[19]

Why this matters for gold: when the whole complex runs together, positioning risk rises—profit-taking in one metal can spill into others, even if gold’s fundamentals remain bullish.

Regional news that matters: Thailand targets gold-trade flows, Australia posts a “gold bonanza”

Thailand: central bank calls for tighter gold-trade controls

One of today’s most striking region-specific stories comes from Thailand, where policymakers are explicitly linking gold trading to currency-market stress.

Reuters reported the Thai central bank is urging the finance ministry to regulate gold trading after a surge in transactions helped push the baht higher, with the governor saying that on days of sharp baht strength, gold transactions can account for about half of the flows driving the move. ^[20]

For global gold readers, the takeaway is bigger than Thailand: it’s a real-time example of how active gold trading and cross-border flows can become macro-relevant, affecting currencies, policy debates, and potentially even local market access and liquidity.

Australia: higher export earnings, gold becomes a top-tier export

Australia’s government-linked commodity outlook also underscored how gold’s high price level is reshaping the real economy.

Reuters reported Australia revised expected resource export earnings up 4% to A$383 billion for the current financial year, pointing to record gold prices as a key contributor. It also said gold is set to become Australia’s second most valuable resource export (after iron ore) in the 2025–26 financial year. ^[21]

Notably, that report included a forward-looking anchor: it said gold prices are likely to remain strong at around $4,000/oz over 2026 before falling in 2027 (in that outlook). ^[22]

That matters for the “forecast” question investors keep asking: even more cautious government-linked assumptions are now using $4,000 gold as a baseline for next year—a remarkable reset compared with the pre-2024 era.

Gold forecast 2026: why $5,000 is on the table—and why the rally could cool

A day before today’s CPI-driven headlines, Reuters published one of the most comprehensive roundups of the market’s 2026 gold forecasts—and the range is wide.

Key points from that Reuters analysis:

• Gold is up ~64% in 2025 and hit a record $4,381/oz in October. ^[23]
• Analysts at JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Metals Focus see bullion reaching $5,000/oz in 2026. ^[24]
• Morgan Stanley forecast gold at $4,500/oz by mid-2026, while JPMorgan projected averages above $4,600 in Q2 and more than $5,000 in Q4, and Metals Focus saw $5,000 by end-2026. ^[25]
• More conservative, Macquarie projected an average of $4,225 in 2026, describing a world that may “stabilise a bit,” with growth improving and real rates staying relatively high. ^[26]

The structural pillars bulls keep citing

The same Reuters report laid out why strategists believe this cycle has different “supports” than older gold booms:

• Central-bank reserve diversification is expected (for a fifth consecutive year) to underpin demand. ^[27]
• JPMorgan’s metals strategy team estimated that to keep prices flat, quarterly central bank + investment demand of about 350 metric tons is needed—and forecast buying could average 585 tons per quarter in 2026. ^[28]
• Investor gold holdings as a share of total assets under management rose to 2.8% from pre-2022 levels of 1.5% (per JPMorgan’s commentary in that report), indicating a bigger strategic allocation pool than in prior cycles. ^[29]

The risks: corrections, forced selling, and “bubble” talk

Even in a bullish framework, the risks are real:

• Reuters reported the BIS warned this month that gold and share prices soaring together is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century, raising questions about potential bubbles. ^[30]
• Analysts noted that sharp equity drawdowns can sometimes force liquidation of even safe-haven holdings—meaning gold can dip in a broader de-risking event. ^[31]
• The same Reuters piece flagged that jewelry demand fell 23% in Q3, and that central bank purchases and ETF inflows could slow in 2026—implying the rally may persist, but with less explosive momentum. ^[32]

Analysis: why gold is “pausing” today, not reversing

Thursday’s price action fits a common late-cycle pattern in strong bull markets:

1. Macro news turns favorable (cooler CPI, more rate-cut odds)
2. Gold does not instantly surge because traders had already positioned for the theme—or because they’re waiting for confirmation amid data noise
3. The market consolidates at a high level, letting other metals (silver/platinum) absorb more of the speculative heat

Investing.com explicitly described profit-taking after a sharp rally over the past week, while still pointing to “structural support” from central-bank buying and de-dollarisation themes. ^[33]

And Reuters captured the same cautious tone ahead of CPI, quoting UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo on investors preferring not to head into the inflation report with open risk. ^[34]

What to watch next for the gold price

Gold’s next decisive move is likely to come from a combination of policy confirmation and liquidity:

• December inflation data (released mid-January): Reuters noted some strategists see the November CPI as unusually noisy because of shutdown-related collection issues—making the next CPI prints critical for rate-cut conviction. ^[35]
• Fed January meeting expectations: The market is already debating how soon cuts resume, and CPI has nudged that conversation. ^[36]
• Bank of Japan decision Friday: If the BoJ surprises, it can drive yen moves and global bond-market repricing, with knock-on effects for gold. ^[37]
• Whether the dollar trend breaks: Today’s post-CPI dip in the dollar index matters if it becomes persistent rather than a one-session reaction. ^[38]

Bottom line: Gold’s 2025 bull market remains intact—and the 2026 debate is now about “how high,” not “whether”

As of today’s 09:55 update on December 18, 2025, gold remains firmly parked near the $4,330/oz region, reflecting a market that is digesting softer U.S. inflation while still respecting short-term dollar strength and profit-taking near records. ^[39]

The most important shift in today’s news flow is not the day’s small price dip. It’s the macro narrative reset: with CPI at 2.7% YoY versus 3.1% expected, the case for further easing in 2026 looks stronger—exactly the environment where gold has historically done well. ^[40]

And with major banks now openly discussing $4,500 to $5,000 gold scenarios in 2026—alongside more conservative forecasts that still sit above $4,200—the metal enters year-end not as a fringe hedge, but as a core macro asset class that’s forcing governments, central banks, and investors to adapt. ^[41]

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. ng.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. ng.investing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. ng.investing.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. ng.investing.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com

XRP’s USD price (XRP-USD) is trading around $1.90–$1.91 on Thursday, December 18, 2025, after another volatile session that briefly pushed the token down toward the mid‑$1.80s and up toward the high‑$1.90s. Across major market trackers, XRP’s 24-hour range has been roughly $1.83 to $1.98—a swing of nearly 8% from low to high, underscoring how jumpy risk assets remain into year‑end. ^[1]

That volatility is showing up in the broader tape too: bitcoin is still struggling to regain consistent upside traction, while altcoins like XRP are reacting to macro data, ETF flows, and shifting risk appetite almost tick-for-tick. ^[2]

Below is what’s driving XRP price today, what the latest news and analysis is highlighting on Dec. 18, 2025, and the forecast scenarios traders and investors are watching next.

XRP price today: where XRP-USD stands on Dec. 18, 2025

As of Dec. 18, XRP is quoted near $1.90–$1.91, with notable intraday markers around:

• 24H low: about $1.83
• 24H high: about $1.98
• 24H trading volume (spot): about $3.9B (tracker estimate)
• All-time high reference: about $3.65, leaving XRP roughly 48% below that peak ^[3]

The headline level traders keep circling is psychological as much as technical: $2.00. Multiple market reads published today frame the area just below $2 as an “inflection” zone—where rebounds keep failing and where sellers appear to defend exits. ^[4]

Why XRP is moving today: macro news meets crypto structure

1) Inflation surprise and rate-cut expectations

A major macro catalyst on Dec. 18 has been the latest U.S. inflation read. Reports covering Thursday’s data pointed to cooler-than-expected CPI, which can loosen financial conditions by pulling forward expectations for future rate cuts. In crypto, that often translates into short bursts of relief—especially when positioning is already leaning bearish. ^[5]

That said, the same coverage also noted uncertainty around the data due to recent disruptions, which helps explain why “good news” hasn’t automatically produced a clean, sustained risk-on rally. ^[6]

2) Risk appetite is still fragile

Even with pockets of optimism, several analyses argue crypto is trading like a high-beta extension of broader risk markets right now—meaning when investors de-risk (or even hesitate), altcoins tend to feel it first. One market note published this week described XRP as stuck between nearby support and overhead resistance while the wider market remains choppy. ^[7]

3) Retail participation is weaker, derivatives activity is lighter

One forecast published today emphasized that retail demand has faded, pointing to declining futures open interest as evidence that speculative positioning has cooled compared with earlier in the year. The implication: XRP can still bounce, but sustained rallies may struggle without broader participation returning. ^[8]

XRP spot ETFs: institutional inflows continue, but price hasn’t “obeyed” yet

One of the most important structural stories for XRP in late 2025 is the emergence of U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs—and the market is now watching whether those flows can eventually overpower short-term risk-off behavior.

What today’s reports say about ETF flows

Multiple reports published around Dec. 18 cite steady inflows into U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs:

• Roughly $18–$19 million of net inflows reported for Wednesday (Dec. 17, U.S. time)
• Cumulative net inflows around $1.03 billion
• Net assets around $1.14 billion ^[9]

A separate analysis this week argued that spot XRP ETFs had built ~$1.01B in net inflows in their early weeks, but still represent a relatively small slice of XRP’s overall market cap—suggesting more “room” for institutional allocation if the category keeps maturing. ^[10]

Which products are in the mix

One of the clearest, primary-source confirmations comes from Bitwise, which announced its Bitwise XRP ETF would start trading on NYSE on Nov. 20, 2025 under ticker XRP, holding spot XRP and charging a stated management fee (with an initial waiver structure described in the release). ^[11]

Separately, reports around the broader ETF rollout noted earlier launches and additional listings, including an initial U.S. spot XRP ETF approval and trading start in mid‑November. ^[12]

Why this matters for price forecasts: ETF flows can be supportive over time, but they don’t guarantee a straight-line move. In the short run, macro risk, profit-taking, and technical breaks can outweigh steady inflows—especially if the market is leaning defensive into year-end.

Ripple-related headlines today: institutional rails keep expanding

XRP’s market narrative is tightly linked to Ripple (the company), even though XRP trades freely on exchanges and is not “a Ripple stock.” On Dec. 18, two notable Ripple-related headlines added to the institutional backdrop:

Ripple expands partnership with TJM

Ripple announced an expanded partnership with TJM Investments / TJM Institutional Services, describing infrastructure support for execution and clearing services and stating Ripple has invested in TJM. The release frames this as part of Ripple Prime’s institutional push (including expectations of expanded digital-asset coverage). ^[13]

VivoPower’s Ripple-share deal pitched as “indirect XRP exposure”

Decrypt reported that VivoPower plans to originate up to $300 million in Ripple Labs shares for an investment vehicle, pitching that equity exposure as implying indirect exposure to roughly 450 million XRP at current prices (valued around $900 million in the article’s framing). ^[14]

These kinds of stories don’t automatically move XRP day-to-day—but they contribute to the broader theme that more vehicles are being built to express XRP-related exposure through regulated or traditional wrappers.

Regulation watch: OCC trust bank approval is a real catalyst—still pending final sign-off

One of the most consequential regulatory developments in December is that the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted conditional approval for Ripple (and other crypto firms) to establish a national trust bank. Importantly, Reuters notes these charters still require final approval before the trust banks can operate, and they do not allow deposit-taking or lending like a full commercial bank. ^[15]

For XRP market participants, the key signal isn’t “banking magic,” it’s the direction of travel: deeper integration of crypto infrastructure into the regulated financial system—paired with ongoing political and industry debate about standards and risk. ^[16]

XRP-USD technical outlook: the levels analysts are watching now

Across today’s forecast notes and analyses, the market is converging around a few key zones.

Immediate support: $1.90, then ~$1.82

• Several analyses describe $1.90 as the near-term “line in the sand” during recent consolidation.
• A widely cited next support sits around $1.82, which has been described as a key level holding the structure together. ^[17]

Downside targets if $1.82 fails

Different analyses cite different downside waypoints, but the recurring idea is simple: a clean break below $1.82 increases the odds of a deeper flush.

• One market note cited a potential extension toward the mid‑$1.60s (with specific downside markers discussed around ~$1.64). ^[18]
• Another market update suggested the trend could stretch toward $1.61 in a bearish continuation scenario. ^[19]

Resistance: $2.00 first, then $2.20–$2.30

On the upside, the “prove it” level remains $2.00. Analysts broadly frame a reclaim-and-hold above $2 as the first step toward stabilizing.

Above that, one analysis highlights a heavier resistance zone around $2.20–$2.30, describing XRP as having spent weeks trapped beneath it. ^[20]

XRP price forecast: scenarios for the days and weeks ahead

Because crypto markets can pivot hard on macro headlines (and XRP can overshoot in either direction), the most responsible forecast is scenario-based. Here’s what today’s reports imply.

Scenario A: Base case (range-bound with a bearish lean)

If broader risk appetite remains fragile into late December, XRP may continue chopping between roughly $1.82 and $2.00, with rallies selling off near resistance and buyers defending the lower band. This aligns with commentary emphasizing weakened retail participation and the market’s difficulty turning ETF inflows into immediate upside. ^[21]

Scenario B: Bear case (breakdown below $1.82)

If XRP loses ~$1.82 decisively—especially on rising volatility—several analyses suggest the market could probe lower into the $1.60s. In this path, ETF inflows may slow the decline but not necessarily stop it if macro conditions worsen or bitcoin sells off further. ^[22]

Scenario C: Bull case (reclaim $2.00 and build above it)

A bullish reversal likely requires a combination of:

• Improving macro sentiment (e.g., rate-cut expectations strengthening after softer inflation),
• Sustained ETF inflows, and
• A clean reclaim of $2.00, followed by pressure on the $2.20–$2.30 zone.

This is the “prove the bottom” scenario: if it happens, today’s analysis suggests XRP could transition from “damage control” into a more constructive recovery phase. ^[23]

What to watch next (the catalysts that can move XRP-USD)

Looking beyond the next candle, XRP traders are likely to keep focusing on:

• Daily XRP spot ETF flow updates (whether inflows persist, accelerate, or finally stall). ^[24]
• Follow-through in U.S. macro data and the market’s confidence in the inflation trend and rate-cut path. ^[25]
• Regulatory milestones tied to Ripple’s conditional OCC trust bank approval (any movement toward final approval, or added conditions). ^[26]
• Institutional expansion headlines (prime brokerage, execution/clearing partnerships, and equity-linked structures referencing XRP exposure). ^[27]

Bottom line

On Dec. 18, 2025, XRP price today (XRP-USD) is hovering near $1.90, still struggling to reclaim $2.00 even as the institutional “plumbing” around XRP appears to be expanding—via spot XRP ETFs with roughly ~$1B+ in cumulative net inflows and a drumbeat of Ripple institutional announcements. ^[28]

The near-term forecast comes down to a simple battle: hold $1.82–$1.90 support or risk a deeper slide, versus reclaim $2.00 and build a base strong enough to challenge the next resistance band. ^[29]

References

1. www.coingecko.com, 2. www.tmgm.com, 3. www.coingecko.com, 4. www.fxstreet.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.fxstreet.com, 9. www.fxstreet.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. bitwiseinvestments.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. decrypt.co, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.fxstreet.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tmgm.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.fxstreet.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.fxstreet.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businesswire.com, 28. www.coingecko.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com

Oil prices are inching higher today, but the rally is tentative — more a geopolitical “risk premium” flicker than a full-blown trend reversal. In early Thursday trading on December 18, 2025, Brent crude hovered around $60 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded in the mid-$56s, as markets weighed fresh supply-disruption risks tied to Venezuela and Russia against a stubbornly bearish backdrop of swelling inventories and forecasts for a well-supplied 2026.  ^[1]

Oil price today: where Brent and WTI are trading

By mid-morning in Europe, Brent was up about half a percent near $60 per barrel and WTI was up roughly two-thirds of a percent around $56.32, according to Reuters pricing at 09:10 GMT.  ^[2]

Other early snapshots told the same story: modest gains, volatile intraday action, and plenty of skepticism that the bounce can last without a meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals.  ^[3]

What’s moving oil markets today

1) The Venezuela tanker “blockade” is back in focus

The biggest headline driver is Washington’s escalating pressure campaign on Venezuela’s oil exports. Reuters reports that President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a move that immediately raised questions about enforcement, legality, and the real-world impact on barrels reaching the market.  ^[4]

Why traders care: even if Venezuela is not a massive swing supplier, disruptions can matter when the market is already anxious about sanctions compliance and shipping constraints.

Key details shaping the price reaction:

• Reuters and ING estimate the measures could put around 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports at risk (with a meaningful share typically heading to China).  ^[5]
• ING also notes that flows to the U.S. (around 160,000 bpd) could be more insulated because they are linked to Chevron-authorized liftings.  ^[6]
• The Washington Post reports more than 30 sanctioned tankers in the region could be affected immediately, underscoring why shipping markets are suddenly part of the oil price conversation again.  ^[7]

Even so, the market’s response has been restrained — largely because traders are still asking the same two questions: How enforceable is it, and how long does it last?  ^[8]

2) Russia sanctions risk is rising again

Alongside Venezuela, traders are weighing the possibility of tighter restrictions on Russia’s energy sector. Reuters reports that Bloomberg cited sources saying the U.S. is preparing another round of Russia-related energy sanctions if Moscow does not agree to a Ukraine peace deal — although Reuters also notes a White House official said Trump had not made decisions on Russian sanctions.  ^[9]

ING’s take is blunt: with Brent trading around $60 and a broader surplus outlook, Washington potentially has more room to turn the sanctions “dial” upward than it would in a tight market.  ^[10]

3) A cyber disruption and export uncertainty add to the supply noise

Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has also been dealing with operational turbulence. Reuters reported that PDVSA resumed loading after disruptions tied to a cyberattack, but that many Venezuelan exports were still on hold even as loading restarted — another factor encouraging short-term supply caution.  ^[11]

Why oil is still struggling despite headline geopolitical risk

Today’s lift comes after crude flirted with multi-year lows earlier this week. Reuters reported that WTI settled at $55.27 on Tuesday, the lowest close since February 2021, before rebounding as Venezuela headlines hit.  ^[12]

The reason the rally is capped is simple: the macro narrative remains dominated by oversupply expectations and uneven demand growth.

Investing.com notes that despite Thursday’s gains, oil has still been tracking toward weekly losses and that 2025 has been a bruising year: WTI down about 21% year-to-date and Brent down just under 20%, reflecting how persistent surplus fears have been.  ^[13]

The inventory signal: crude down, fuels up

A key “reality check” for oil bulls this week has been U.S. stockpile data.

Reuters reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ending December 12, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected — a combination that can mute crude rallies because it hints at softer end-demand or seasonal refinery dynamics.  ^[14]

ING’s daily commodities note adds color: it pegs the crude draw at about 1.27 million barrels, driven largely by stronger exports (with crude exports rising sharply week-over-week), while refined product inventories built meaningfully and refinery runs climbed to the highest levels since early September.  ^[15]

Translation for traders: crude supply is not the only story. If refined products are building, it can be harder for crude prices to sustain a breakout — even when geopolitical headlines are loud.

Oil price forecast: what major outlooks say for 2026

If today’s price action feels like a tug-of-war, the forecasts explain why.

EIA: Brent seen falling toward $55 in early 2026

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global inventories to keep rising through 2026 and forecasts Brent averaging about $55 per barrel in Q1 2026, staying near that level through the rest of next year.  ^[16]

Notably, the EIA also flags two forces that could prevent an outright collapse: OPEC+ production policy and China’s continued inventory builds.  ^[17]

IEA: surpluses and swelling “oil on water” keep pressure on prices

The International Energy Agency’s December 2025 Oil Market Report sketches a market where supply growth still outpaces demand growth.

Among the most market-moving signals in the IEA update:

• Demand growth is projected at 830 kb/d in 2025 and 860 kb/d in 2026.  ^[18]
• The agency describes an implied average surplus and highlights how crude “on water” has surged — a sign of logistical overhang and rerouted trade flows.  ^[19]
• It also notes that observed global inventories rose sharply through the year, with a substantial build from January through November.  ^[20]

The big message: even if sanctions tighten around the edges, the market is still wrestling with abundance.

Reuters poll: 2026 pricing expectations cluster around low-$60s Brent

A Reuters poll of analysts and economists published in late November projected Brent averaging $62.23 per barrel in 2026 and WTI averaging $59.00, while estimating the potential 2026 surplus across a wide range (from roughly 0.5 to 4.2 million bpd).  ^[21]

Crucially, the same poll emphasized the idea that geopolitics may keep a “floor” under prices — not because balances are tight, but because disruptions and enforcement risks can reprice quickly.  ^[22]

The geopolitics premium: how big could it get?

Here’s the tension in today’s market:

• In a structurally oversupplied world, oil often needs a shock to rally.
• But when that shock is political, traders also discount it until enforcement becomes visible.

Reuters quoted a former U.S. State Department energy diplomat suggesting that if Venezuelan exports are materially curtailed and not replaced by spare capacity, the impact could be several dollars per barrel (on the order of $5 to $8).  ^[23]

At the same time, Reuters also cited analysts who argue that U.S. actions may add short-term noise without materially tightening global balances unless the disruption persists or widens.  ^[24]

What to watch next

For readers tracking oil price today and where crude goes next, the near-term roadmap is clear:

• Enforcement signals: Are sanctioned tankers actually interdicted at scale, and do insurers/shippers step back?  ^[25]
• Russia sanctions decisions: Any confirmed tightening around Russia’s energy flows could move prices faster than rhetoric alone.  ^[26]
• Inventory trendlines: Crude draws help, but persistent gasoline/distillate builds can cap rallies.  ^[27]
• The 2026 surplus debate: EIA and IEA projections keep the “sell rallies” mindset alive unless demand surprises to the upside or supply growth disappoints.  ^[28]

Bottom line

Oil is higher today — but it’s rising in a market that still believes the bigger story is too much supply chasing modest demand growth. Venezuela and Russia are injecting fresh uncertainty, and that uncertainty can move prices quickly. Yet the latest official outlooks still point toward a 2026 landscape where inventories build and rallies face resistance unless disruptions become concrete and prolonged.  ^[29]

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.washingtonpost.com, 8. think.ing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. think.ing.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. think.ing.com, 16. www.eia.gov, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.iea.org, 19. www.iea.org, 20. www.iea.org, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.eia.gov, 29. www.reuters.com

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Natural gas price attempted to resist the negative pressures by ending the negative trading after testing the bullish channel’s support to $3.880, forming a positive rebound by its stability near $4.080.

We couldn’t confirm regaining the bullish attempts unless breaching the barrier at $4.200 and providing positive close above it, therefore, we expect providing mixed trading and there is a chance for providing new pressures on the main support, while breaching the barrier and holding above will provide strong chance to begin achieving several gains, to expect its rally initially towards $4.510.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.900 and $4.200

Trend forecast: Bearish