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Category: Forex News, News

GBP/USD Analysis Today 30/5: Profit-Taking Pressure (Chart)

By Published On: May 30, 20243.4 min readViews: 2120 Comments on GBP/USD Analysis Today 30/5: Profit-Taking Pressure (Chart)

  • GBP/USD is under profit-taking pressure for the second day in a row, retreating from its two-month high of $1.28 touched on May 27.
  • Some support for the US dollar countered the strong GBP momentum stemming from a hawkish Bank of England.
  • Recently, Fed officials have indicated that the funds rate will not be cut until several months of inflation decline, adding to the more hawkish policy requirements and boosting the dollar.

However, the delay in BOE rate cuts is limiting the downside. Despite the UK’s annual inflation rate easing to 2.3%, approaching the bank’s 2% target, the reading came in above expectations of 2.1%. Now, investors favor the first BOE rate cut in September rather than the previous June consensus. Also, the possibility of a June rate cut has diminished due to UK Prime Minister Sunak’s surprise announcement of a general election in early July. While the BOE has stressed its independence, previous accusations of political interference have made markets more comfortable in preparing for a September rate cut.

According to licensed currency trading platforms, GBP/USD declined from its highest level since March (1.28) amid broad-based US dollar strength that dampened risk appetite. GBP/USD losses reached 1.2682 at the time of writing, as analysts pointed to growing concerns about Fed rate hikes driving sentiment deterioration, which typically supports the dollar. Commenting on this, Bob Savage, analyst at Bank of New York Mellon, says, “Risk aversion with rate hikes trumping AI hopes, with markets focused on policy and higher for longer with fears of reflation.” The analyst added, “The world is largely stuck watching rates with nearly $300bn of US supply this week, running through to the end of the month. Mix in Fed speakers and the Beige Book, and you have the makings of further trouble.”

The widely cited five-point rise in US consumer confidence on Tuesday is seen as boosting the dollar as it raises concerns that US inflation will remain elevated amid resilient consumer demand. Furthermore, this could reignite speculation that the Fed has little room to cut rates and could actually choose to raise them again.

In this regard, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has given weight to this idea, saying that further rate hikes are still possible. Kashkari said at a monetary policy forum in Singapore, “I don’t think anyone has completely taken rate hikes off the table. Also, I think the probability of rate hikes is very low, but I don’t want to take anything off the table.” He added, “Wage growth is still very strong relative to what we think will ultimately be consistent with a 2% inflation target.”

Correspondingly, the overall US debt burden is a concern as the government looks to borrow billions of dollars by issuing new bonds. If demand for this debt is not enough, the yield offered by bonds rises, which supports the US dollar. In this regard, Win Thein, an analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, says: “The weak demand for two-year and five-year UST auctions yesterday indicates that supply may become an issue for the market.” Added, “Dovish comments from the Federal Reserve added to the selling, as did a stronger-than-expected Consumer Confidence reading from the Conference Board for May.”

Technical forecasts for the GPB/USD pair today:

According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the recent selling operations of the British pound against the US dollar GBP/USD have not yet taken it out of its upward channel. Technically, this may happen if the currency pair moves towards the support levels of 1.2625 and 1.2545, respectively. On the other hand, as we mentioned before, the resistance levels 1.2775 and 1.2835 will remain important for more bulls’ control over the trend and at the same time prepare for the psychological resistance 1.3000. Today, the GBP/USD pair will be affected by the announcement of the US economic growth reading, in addition to the number of weekly jobless claims, in addition to any statements from US Federal Reserve officials.

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